Heyman On Cubs, Pettitte, V-Mart

SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with a look at the Cubs' managerial opening.  He feels that interim manager Mike Quade is now a real possibility, with Ryne Sandberg the other top contender.  Heyman's other info:

  • "Word around the team" is that Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte is 50-50 on whether he'll play next year.
  • Heyman passes along an unconfirmed report from a competing executive that Boston's offer to Victor Martinez was about $22MM over two years.  Martinez's former teammate C.C. Sabathia expects the catcher to sign elsewhere, as he's seeking a four-year contract.  Whatever the amount, Martinez rejected the two-year offer in August.  Martinez profiles as a highly-ranked Type A free agent, so the Red Sox might at least end up with a pair of draft picks.  Any first-rounder received will be the 19th overall pick at best.
  • Jose Reyes "expects the Mets to either pick up his $11 million option or offer him an extension," writes Heyman.  Reyes sports a .284/.322/.429 line this year and could be primed for a big 2011.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Marlins, Rangers

Six years ago today, the Rockies signed righty Jhoulys Chacin as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela.  This year as a rookie, Chacin has a 3.26 ERA in 132.3 innings.  Links for Monday…

Next Year’s Adrian Beltre

When the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $10MM deal in January, Adrian Beltre was coming off an injury-marred campaign.  He'd played in a career-low 111 games, and his offense had tanked.  The combination of Beltre being represented by Scott Boras and the third baseman's previous consistent work resulted in the large one-year commitment with Boston.  The deal paid off for both sides, as Beltre combined good health, his typically stellar defense, and a .319/.365/.552 line.  Which free agent position players are candidates to become the Adrian Beltre of 2011?

  • Derrek Lee – Lee was consistently solid for the 2007-09 Cubs, averaging over four wins above replacement (using the FanGraphs version of the stat).  In 2010 his power took a dive while his strikeout rate jumped, and he turned 35 this month.  He's dealt with side, hand, back, hamstring, thumb, and foot injuries this year.
  • Johnny Damon – Damon averaged 3.7 WAR for the 2008-09 Yankees but dropped to 2.0 this year for the Tigers.  He still gets on base; maybe the power will return in the right situation.  He's battled back and calf injuries this year.  Damon turns 37 in November.
  • Lance Berkman– He averaged 4.7 WAR from 2007-09, including a monster '08.  The walks remain but Berkman's power plummeted in 2010.  He had knee surgery in March and had fluid drained from it five times before being activated on April 20th.  He also fought groin and ankle injuries.  He'll turn 35 in February.
  • Jose Lopez – He averaged 2.4 WAR from 2008-09, but sits at just 0.2 this year.  The cause, again, is a loss of power.  He missed time with a hamstring injury, but has been mostly healthy this year.  One major change was a move from second to third base.  Lopez figures to reach free agency by way of a declined option and a non-tender.  He'll turn 27 in November, so youth is on his side.
  • Carlos Pena– He averaged over four wins for 2007-09, but stands at just 1.1 this year.  He had surgery a year ago for two broken fingers, and also dealt with a foot injury during the season.  Pena turns 33 in May.  He's also represented by Boras, and is the most likely player here to get a Beltre-like deal.  However, none of these players match Beltre's combination of relative youth and defensive prowess. 

Offseason Dates Moved Up

On Thursday, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the players' union and MLB "reached an agreement to lengthen the offseason negotiating periods for free agents by moving up the annual filing, arbitration and tender dates, starting immediately after this season."  Today, MLBTR has learned the details, including the new 2010 deadlines.

  • Instead of the typical 15-day free agent filing period following the World Series, it will be five days.
  • Typically the deadline for a team to offer arbitration to its own free agents has been December 1st; it's now November 23rd.
  • December 7th has been the deadline for free agents to accept or decline arbitration offers from their old teams; it's now November 30th.
  • December 12th has been the non-tender deadline; it's now December 2nd.
  • The above dates are confirmed.  On the unconfirmed side, there is word that the Rule 5 draft may be moved to November 20th.  The Rule 5 draft typically marks the end of the Winter Meetings, but that gathering takes place from December 6-9 this year in Lake Buena Vista, Florida.
  • The goal here, according to Stark, is to lengthen the offseason free agent negotiating period, resulting in fewer unsigned players in February and March.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels

The arbitration eligibles series is back with a vengeance.  Today we look at the Angels players who will be eligible for arbitration after the season…

Frandsen played well in his first 100 or so Angels plate appearances, but his work since then could get him non-tendered.  Callaspo could be cut loose if the Angels prefer not to bump him up to $1MM.  It might be a similar story for Willits.  Mathis could be non-tendered after another abysmal offensive showing, though the Angels would have a case for keeping his salary at $1.3MM or even cutting his pay.

Weaver, a Scott Boras client, is primed for big bucks – he leads all pitchers this year with 229 strikeouts.  You won't find too many cases like Weaver, as most young pitchers this good are locked up.  He could jump past $7MM.  Morales has bad timing – he had his huge year in '09 but broke his leg in May of this year.  He should still find a $3MM salary.

Aybar will get a raise on this year's $2.05MM, but his poor offensive 2010 should limit the increase.  Kendrick, already at $1.75MM, set career highs in runs, RBIs, and steals.  It's not a perfect comparable, but maybe he'll fall around Clint Barmes' $3.3MM.

Napoli could be in the position Mark Teahen, Jeremy Hermida, and Matt Lindstrom were last year – traded before the non-tender deadline.  He's got 92 home runs under his belt after five seasons and already earns $3.6MM.  Most backstops with Napoli's abilities are locked up; he could make over $5MM next year.  Granted Napoli has only 406 career games behind the dish, and more time at first base this year, but his agent Brian Grieper can probably position him as a catcher for an arbitration hearing.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hisanori Takahashi

When the Mets signed lefty Hisanori Takahashi in February, his recent stats in Japan described him as a flyball/command pitcher who could fill a swingman role.  The screwballer's Mets deal came with a $1MM guarantee and $2MM in performance bonuses.  The Pirates, Orioles, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, and Padres also expressed interest in Takahashi.

According to David Waldstein of the New York Times, Takahashi's contract includes a provision allowing him to declare free agency on October 31st, creating "a four-week window in which the Mets have exclusive negotiation rights."  Typically the free agent filing period begins the day after the World Series with an exclusive window for teams for fifteen days.  That'd make the filing date between November 1st and November 5th.  The wrinkle: ESPN's Jayson Stark recently wrote that the annual filing, arbitration, and tender dates will be moved up this year.  Allowing players to file before or during the World Series seems unlikely, however, and Takahashi's unique situation is confusing as well.  We'll seek clarification on both fronts.

GM Omar Minaya told Waldstein he hopes to work out a new contract with Takahashi, although keep in mind that Minaya might not last that long at the team's helm.  Takahashi told ESPN's Adam Rubin he likes New York and plans to finish his career in MLB, but not much is known beyond that.  Let's take a look at Takahashi's free agent case.

The Pros

  • Takahashi is versatile, having ably filled roles in the Mets' rotation and bullpen.  At this point, he's actually their closer.  In 64.6 innings as a starter Takahashi posted a 5.01 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 1.53 HR/9.  Out of the pen he managed a 2.21 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and a 0.34 HR/9.
  • He dominated lefties in 2010, posting a 11.05 K/9 while allowing no home runs in 29.3 frames.  He was respectable against righties too.
  • Takahashi is on the border of Type B and nothing at last check, though given the timeframe the Mets probably can't offer arbitration anyway.  He won't cost a draft pick.

The Cons

  • Takahashi's multiple roles in 2010 could work against him – even if he'd like another crack at starting, teams might be more enticed by his relief success.
  • At 36 years old in April, Takahashi is no spring chicken.  He hasn't pitched 150 innings in a season since 2007.  
  • Among those with 100 innings this year, Takahashi's 45.6% flyball rate is the 13th-highest.  His 8.4% rate of home runs per flyball may not last, resulting in more shots leaving the yard in 2011.

The Verdict

Quality lefties are tough to find no matter what the role.  Takahashi's agent Peter Greenberg figures to start out seeking a two-year deal despite his client's age.  The annual guarantee could be around $2.5MM, plus incentives for starts and games finished.

First Base Options For The Pirates

Pirates GM Neal Huntington recently expressed interest in finding a platoon partner for Garrett Jones at first base next year, specifically a right-handed hitter who performs well against southpaws.  MLBTR has eleven names to kick around; here they are with their work against lefties since 2008:

  • Mike Napoli – .321 batting average/.415 on-base percentage/.608 slugging percentage.  Napoli would be an expensive platoon bat, as he'll be getting a raise on this year's $3.6MM salary.  He could help out behind the dish as well, but the Bucs already have Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit under contract and may try to move the latter. 
  • Garrett Atkins – .297/.375/.468.  Atkins struggled against righties and lefties this year with the Orioles, but he'd only be a minor league signing. 
  • Ryan Garko – .294/.373/.443.  Same story as Atkins. 
  • Fernando Tatis – .286/.367/.435.  He's in line for a minor league deal as well, but will be battling back from July labrum surgery. 
  • Ty Wigginton – .273/.353/.425.  The Mets traded Wiggy, Jose Bautista, and Matt Peterson to the Pirates in '04 for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger.  Pirates GM Dave Littlefield released Wigginton in advance of the '05 Rule 5 draft so he could take Victor Santos from the Royals. 
  • Melvin Mora – .283/.351/.471.  He's had a resurgent year; perhaps the Rockies will look to re-sign him.  Mora would be a viable candidate for the Pirates, though most of his first base experience is limited to this year.
  • Andruw Jones - .215/.350/.427.  He's logged only eight career games at first base. 
  • Troy Glaus – .222/.350/.405.  Glaus could be signed on the cheap with the hope that his power returns. 
  • Jorge Cantu – .286/.349/.464.  Cantu's stock is down, but he could be a buy-low opportunity. 
  • Juan Rivera – .285/.335/.514.  Rivera's a trade candidate, but the Angels would have to pick up much of his $5.25MM salary for 2011.  Doumit will earn a similar amount, but he's not a great fit for the Halos. 
  • Marcus Thames – .264/.332/.504.  He doesn't have a ton of first base experience (44 games), but he will be coming off a fine season for the Yankees. 

Jays Relievers Open-Minded As Free Agency Nears

Potential free agents sit down with MLBTR.

The numbers Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs and Jason Frasor have posted this year will look pretty good on the backs of their respective baseball cards. Gregg has a career high 35 saves with a 3.38 ERA and 9.3 K/9; Downs has a 2.73 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9; Frasor has a 3.75 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. But Downs says he looks for something else when evaluating his season.

“Staying healthy,” Downs said. “That’s the main thing. Staying healthy since it’s such a grind. It’s six months out of the year and your body goes through so much, so I think if you just prepare yourself mentally the best you can, if you stay together physically, things will take care of themselves.”

Gregg also evaluates his season primarily based on health.

“Being able to go out there all the time,” Gregg said. “That’s the biggest thing – being available to help out the team. And statistics, they all work out at the end of the year, but being available for the team sometimes is more important than the other stuff.”

The other stuff has worked out fairly well for all three potential free agents, but Frasor thinks he could have pitched better.

“It’s been kind of a roller coaster year actually, and it’s definitely finishing better than it started,” he said. “Looking back, I think I’ve done some of the dumbest things I’ve done, [made] some of the worst pitches. I made some terrible decisions along the way [and] I’ve really gotten burned. But I like my stuff right now and my arm feels good, so it’s been a good year as far as that’s concerned, but it didn’t start out good by any means. It wasn’t pretty.”

Frasor walked nearly a batter per inning in April and posted an 8.38 ERA through the season’s first month, but he recovered from his turbulent start and put together a fine year. With a week remaining in the regular season, he tentatively calls 2010 a success.

“If you had asked me a month ago, no, I’d have said ‘no, it’s not a success,’ but in a lot of ways it is,” Frasor said. “I don’t want to say too much because a lot can happen in this last week, I mean I could give up two grand slams in this last week and then everything’s totally messed up, but as of right now, I’m OK.”

Good health and solid performances aren’t the only things unifying the relievers; all three could become free agents this winter. They are well-acquainted with the rumor mill, so it’s no surprise that the trio takes a laid-back stance to their upcoming free agency. Frasor, who will hit the open market for the first time, says he’s open-minded about his future.

“I’m really not that picky, as long as I’m not back in the New York Penn League or Korea or something,” Frasor said. “I love Toronto, been here for seven years, I have a lot of roots here, so I’m open to coming back.”

Frasor pitched in the New York Penn League when he was a member of the Tigers organization, but that was way back in 1999. Now, he intends to relax once the season ends instead of worrying about his next team. Like Frasor, Downs plans to wait a while before thinking much more about his future.

“Once the World Series is over, I think I’ll sit down with my family, sit down with the people who I need to talk to and hopefully we’ll figure it out from there,” Downs said. 

And the longtime Blue Jay would like to stay in Toronto if the organization wants him back.

“Hopefully there’s a team out there and I would love to come back here,” Downs said. “I’ve been here, like Frasor said, we’ve been together for six years and this is the home away from home for both of us and to say that we wouldn’t want to come back here would be lying. It’s a great city; it’s a great organization.”

Both Frasor and Downs currently project as Type A free agents, so they could see offers of arbitration from the Blue Jays. The team would stand to gain top draft picks if the pitchers turn down arbitration and sign elsewhere, so there’s reason to believe the Blue Jays will think hard about making such offers. 

When GM Alex Anthopoulos held on to Downs, Frasor, Gregg, John Buck and Lyle Overbay at the July 31st trade deadline, he maintained that the team would consider offering arbitration to departing free agents. The players could accept the offers and return to Toronto on one-year deals, but they could just as easily seek multi-year contracts, since they’re playing well and have stayed healthy so far.

Gregg currently projects to be a Type B free agent, but he won’t necessarily hit the open market. The Blue Jays have two options for the right-hander (one for 2011 and one for 2011-12), so his future depends on the Blue Jays’ decision.

“I’m assuming at some point I’ll sit down with Alex [Anthopoulos] and we’ll talk about next year and what is to come,” Gregg said. “But it’s kind of nice because I don’t have to think about it. I’ve just got to wait for him to make his decision, the organization to make their decision before I’ve got to deal with anything.”

Gregg is prepared to hit the open market again and he looks ahead to the possibility without being excited or apprehensive. At this point, he says free agency is just a part of the job.

“It is what it is,” he said. “Been through it already, so I know what to expect, which makes it easier, but it’s a process to go through. You’ve got a lot of conversations to go through and sometimes that gets pretty monotonous, but you deal with it as it comes.”

This offseason, Gregg, Downs and Frasor are likely to see their share of offers. And, fingers crossed, none of the three will end up pitching in the New York Penn League any time soon.

Odds & Ends: Brewers, Dodgers, Fielder, Konerko

Links for Sunday as Phil Hughes takes the mound against Boston..

MLBTR Originals

Here's a look back at some of the analysis and reporting MLBTR's writing team delivered this week..