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Free Agent Stock Watch: Rafael Soriano

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According to David Ortiz, Rafael Soriano deserves to be signed to a five-year contract this winter. While Soriano is enjoying a fantastic season for the Tampa Bay Rays, he probably shouldn't hold out hope for a B.J. Ryan-esque deal. That doesn't mean, however, that Soriano won't be one of the most interesting free agents on the market this winter.

A year ago, Soriano unexpectedly accepted an arbitration offer from the Braves, since he and his agent were worried the right-hander's Type A designation would make teams reluctant to give up two draft picks to sign him. The Braves, who added Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to their bullpen, had no room in their budget for Soriano and dealt him to the Rays. This year, Soriano is in a similar situation; not only is he projected to be a Type A again, but his 91.232 Elias score currently ranks him ahead of every major free agent, including Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth.

Of course, barring a late-season collapse, Soriano will be coming off a campaign even more impressive than his 2009. His strikeout rate has dipped a little, but his ERA (1.82) and WHIP (0.79) have improved significantly, and those 43 saves won't hurt his stock either. The 30-year-old seems more likely to turn down arbitration and pursue a multi-year deal this time around, which puts Tampa Bay in a win-win situation. If Soriano accepts arbitration, he would be a valuable trade chip for the cost-cutting Rays. If the righty turns down arbitration, the Rays could be looking at not only a sandwich pick, but a first round selection as well, given his Elias ranking. If a club with an unprotected first round pick signed both Soriano and Victor Martinez, for instance, that team would be sending their first rounder to the Rays, rather than the Red Sox.

Last winter, Fernando Rodney and Jose Valverde signed two-year guarantees worth $11.5MM and $14MM respectively. Rodney earned his contract in part due to a gaudy save total (37), while Valverde earned his due to impressive ratios (2.33 ERA, 9.3 K/9). Not only has Soriano bested Rodney's save count and many of Valverde's peripherals this year, but he'll also be younger than either right-hander was when they signed their deals.

So what sort of contract could Soriano command this winter? Even if his multiple elbow surgeries make some suitors wary, Soriano's consecutive healthy, effective seasons should earn him a lucrative multi-year pact. The 30-year-old should at least receive a two-year offer worth $18MM or so, and he could end up doing even better than that. Especially if Ortiz lands a general manager job.

Non-Tender Candidate: Brian Tallet

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Heading into this season, Brian Tallet's second year of arbitration eligibility, the Blue Jays nearly doubled the left-hander's 2009 salary, signing him for $2MM. Tallet hadn't enjoyed an overly successful 2009, recording a 5.32 ERA and 1.67 K/BB, but he was a useful innings eater for the Jays, starting 25 games and pitching 160.2 IP.

In 2010, Tallet hasn't even provided value as an innings eater, earning less than half the playing time he did a year ago. In 30 appearances (five starts), the southpaw, who turns 33 tomorrow, has seen his ERA (6.28) and BB/9 (4.5) rise, while his strikeout rate (5.9 K/9) has declined. Even if Tallet didn't receive a raise through arbitration this winter, it seems unlikely that the Jays would want to pay $2MM to a player coming off such an underwhelming season.

Tallet does have two factors working in his favor, however: three of Toronto's late-inning relievers (Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor) are facing possible free agency, meaning there could be plenty of holes to fill in the club's bullpen. Plus, the silver lining in Tallet's 2010 season has been his ability to shut down left-handed hitters. In 106 plate appearances against Tallet, lefties have hit just .181/.236/.362, striking out 26 times. The Jays have plenty of other options to fill out their 2011 rotation, so they could decide to retain Tallet not in a starting or mop-up role, but as a left-handed specialist out of the 'pen. At $2MM, there are worse investments.

Still, the 32-year-old's numbers against lefties this year may not translate to future success – for his career, left-handers have a .740 OPS against Tallet. And even if he continued to shut down lefties, the market price for LOOGYs isn't high. It took Joe Beimel, who has filled a similar role in Colorado this season, nearly the entire offseason to land a one-year, $850K minor league deal with the Rockies.

Will Tallet be non-tendered by the Blue Jays? Click here to weigh in with your vote, and click here to view the results of the poll.

Poll: Jayson Werth’s Next Contract

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You could make the argument that Jayson Werth has been the best everyday player on the best team in the National League this year. He has a .291/.381/.521 line, and leads the league in doubles and pitches seen per plate appearance.

That will play in Werth's favor when he hits free agency later this year, but remember that Werth will be up against Carl Crawford, who is two years younger and has a better defensive reputation. Unlike Crawford and many other members of this year's free agent class, Werth has only been a full-time player for three years. Werth will get a multi-year deal from someone, but the details are harder to predict. 

Agent Scott Boras says Werth is more comparable to Matt Holliday (who signed for $120MM) than Jason Bay (who signed for $66MM), but it's time to see what you think:

Will Jayson Werth sign for more than $100MM?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Boras: Werth Can Play Center, Is “Different” Than Bay

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It didn’t take long for Scott Boras to start hinting at Jayson Werth’s free agent value. The agent, who recently added Werth to his long list of clients, suggested to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the outfielder will be seeking more than the $66MM Jason Bay obtained as a free agent last winter. Without making demands or mentioning dollar figures, Boras made it clear that he considers Werth more similar to Matt Holliday (a Boras client who signed a $120MM deal) than Bay.

“Werth is a totally different type of player [than Bay],” Boras said. “He’s an athlete who can play center field, run, steal bases, be a Gold Glove type outfielder.”

Werth, who has started 18 games in center this year, has spent most of the season in right, but Boras made it clear that the 31-year-old is an option for teams looking to add a center fielder.

“He has the closing speed to play center,” Boras said. “It makes your team so different. Normally you get that production out of a corner outfielder.”

Though most around baseball assume that Werth, a projected Type A free agent, will leave the Phillies, Boras says his client may end up re-signing in Philadelphia.

Non-Tender Candidate: Ryan Church

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For the second consecutive season, Ryan Church has played well enough to appear in 100 games, but poorly enough to become a non-tender candidate. Last year, the Braves non-tendered Church instead of offering him anything close to his 2009 salary of $2.8MM and he faces similar uncertainty heading into the 2010-11 offseason.

The Pirates signed Church for $1.5MM and saw him hit just .182/.240/.312 before they traded him to Arizona in July. The 31-year-old has hit well for the D'Backs, as his .279/.354/.535 line shows, but his 48 plate appearances in the desert haven't earned him any guarantees for 2011. 

Church has played all three outfield positions this year, and though he hasn't logged a significant number of innings in 2010, we can say that he is versatile and has posted slightly above average UZRs for seven consecutive seasons. His batting average on balls in play is 60 points below his career mark, but he is hitting fewer liners and more fly balls than usual, so this isn't purely a case of bad luck.

Despite his good at bats in Arizona and his versatility in the outfield, Church won't necessarily see a contract offer from the D'Backs. It won't be hard to find fourth outfielders for $1-2MM through free agency, so it seems unlikely that the D'Backs will offer Church a contract for a comparable amount of money after a mostly disappointing season. Let's see what you think. Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Lilly, D’Backs, Crawford

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On this date in 1990, the Dodgers signed Miguel Cairo as an amateur free agent. These days, Cairo's playing all around the diamond for the Reds, as they approach their first playoff berth since 1995. Here are today's links…

  • Pirates president Frank Coonelly has “veto authority, but he most definitely does not do any of the day-to-day GM work,” according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported earlier in the day that some baseball people see Coonelly as the team’s de facto GM.
  • Ted Lilly and the Dodgers have an understanding that they'll talk about a new deal after the season, when Lilly hits free agency, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).
  • The D'Backs appear to want a GM whose forte is scouting and player development, according to Olney (on Twitter).
  • Houston native Carl Crawford told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he likes Houston and has nothing against the Astros. Crawford, who hits free agency this winter, says his friends see him playing for a winner. Despite their strong second half, the Astros are five games below .500.
  • Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that the Blue Jays are being "incredibly open-minded" as they search for their next field manager.

Top Execs Could Shy Away From Mets GM Job

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The Mets may have trouble convincing baseball’s top executives to take over as the team’s next general manager, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Mets will fire or re-assign GM Omar Minaya after the season, according to Sherman, but that’s the easy part. Sherman reports that chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon has a reputation in baseball circles as a tone deaf, credit-seeking, second-guessing micro-manager who isn’t accountable or self aware.

That reputation won’t make the Mets’ search for a new GM any easier, but they’re prepared to spend, even though they owe Minaya millions after 2010. Former Padres GM Kevin Towers will likely take the Diamondbacks GM job if the money is right and former D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes is hesitant to work for the Wilpons, according to Sherman.

Former Astros GM Gerry Hunsicker likes working for the Rays, but those close to him say he would consider the right GM job. Those are far from the only qualified candidates to run a team, but it appears that the Mets will have to fight the perception that Wilpon is a difficult boss as they hunt for their next GM.

Rosenthal On Beltran, Pirates, Pujols, Braves

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There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the 2011 Mets from Francisco Rodriguez to Omar Minaya to Jerry Manuel. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says Minaya or his replacement,  “would be wise to explore trades for [Jose] Reyes and [David] Wright” this offseason. Here are the rest of the rumors:

  • Carlos Beltran, a player who could become a trade chip this winter, told Rosenthal that he would like to remain on the Mets.
  • Pirates president Frank Coonelly is the team's “de facto GM”, according to some rival executives.
  • Not surprisingly, the Cardinals’ top offseason priority will be extending Albert Pujols, who will hit the open market after 2011 unless the Cards lock him up. It took Joe Mauer and the Twins a while to work out their $184MM extension, so we could be in for a winter’s worth of Pujols rumors.
  • As Rosenthal points out, the Braves could use a big bat to play left field and they'll likely be on the lookout for one this offseason.

Team And Transaction-Only Feeds

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If you'd like to filter MLBTR's information by team or limit it to transactions only, we've got you covered.

In the navigation bar, check out the Feeds By Team dropdown.  Clicking on the name of a team returns all the posts that reference that club.  For example, this page displays only posts with Braves-related rumors.  The newest will always be on top. 

Next to the word "Braves" you'll see an RSS button and a Twitter button.  The RSS button leads here, to the URL you'd put into your RSS reader to receive only our Braves rumors.  The Twitter button takes you to @mlbtrbraves, which shows all posts involving the team.  The MLBTR team Twitter pages are also a place to quickly receive info from team press releases, even if that info is not used on the main site.

If you'd prefer to monitor only actual transactions, we've got several options.  Our Transactions page shows only posts marked as transactions, such as signings, trades, DFAs, and releases.  You can also get this same info on Twitter and RSS.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Melvin Mora

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There's a limit to how much 38-year-old utility men can earn, and Melvin Mora is doing everything within his power to push that limit as he heads for another round of free agency. He's hitting well and playing all over the place as the Rockies make their annual charge towards the postseason. Here's the outlook for Mora this winter:

The Pros

  • Mora is batting .286/.363/.404 this year, a significant improvement from the 2009 line he posted in Baltimore (.260/.321/.358).
  • The Rockies called on Mora to be their everyday third baseman when Ian Stewart hit the DL on August 26th and Mora has responded by posting an .873 OPS since then, proving that he can still play every day if necessary.
  • He has played first, second, third and left field this year.
  • He won't cost a draft pick, since he doesn't project to be a ranked free agent.

The Cons

  • Mora turns 39 before the season starts, so his chances of winning another Silver Slugger or clubbing 27 homers in a season again are slim. He's a role player at this point in his career.
  • His batting average on balls in play is the highest it has been in five years, despite a career-low line drive rate. Those numbers suggest Mora has benefitted from some good luck on balls in play.

The Verdict

Mora is not getting a multi-year deal this winter, barring a major surprise, but he has likely earned himself a raise from his current $1.275MM salary. It seems like Mora's in line for another one-year deal this winter, but he could earn $2-3MM this time around.

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