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Heyman On Valentine, Macha, Mariners

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MLB executives told Jon Heyman of SI.com that they’d be happy to ignore Felix Hernandez’s relatively low win total and hand him the Cy Young Award because of how well he has pitched this year. Here are the managerial rumblings that Heyman’s hearing:

  • Bobby Valentine would likely be a candidate to manage in the Bronx if Joe Girardi moves on after the season. That seems unlikely, however.
  • Ken Macha won’t likely return to manage the Brewers next year, but bench coach Willie Randolph doesn’t appear to be the favorite to replace Macha. Bob Melvin could be a candidate, as Heyman suggested last week.
  • Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is on "shaky ground” according to people around baseball. Zduriencik admitted to Heyman that he should have looked into Josh Lueke’s background more carefully before acquiring him from the Rangers.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Xavier Nady

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It's always tough for a player when he hits free agency coming off an injury, but it's even tougher when it's a major injury. That's exactly what happened to Xavier Nady last winter, when he was recovering from his second Tommy John surgery after coming to the plate just 29 times for the Yankees in 2009. 

The Cubs rolled the dice and signed Nady to a one-year deal worth $3.3MM in late January, though incentives based on games started and plate appearances have put another $350K in his pocket this season. Let's break down his stock heading into free agency…

The Pros

  • After a slow start, Nady has rounded into form down the stretch, hitting .317/.351/.423 in his last 131 plate appearances. Not coincidentally, that hot streak almost directly coincides with the trade of Derrek Lee, which is when Nady took the first base job outright.
  • He's now more than a full year away from his surgery and hasn't shown any ill effects. 
  • Nady is versatile, capable of playing first and both outfield corners regularly, as well as third in an emergency.
  • He is not projected to be a Type-A (or even a Type-B) free agent, meaning a team would not have to surrender a draft pick to sign him if the Cubs offered him arbitration after the season. 

The Cons

  • Always known for his ability to mash lefthanded pitching (.298/.369/.455 vs. LHP in his career), Nady has hit just .250/.295/.375 against southpaws this year.
  • He's also striking out more than ever, in exactly 27% of his at-bats, and his power numbers are down as well; Nady's .380 slugging percentage is his lowest since 2003.
  • He hit just .225/.298/.344 in 171 plate appearances before taking over at first base full-time, perhaps suggesting that he needs regular playing time to remain productive. 
  • Nady will turn 32-years-old this November, so he's teetering on the edge of his prime and decline phases.

The Verdict

Despite what shaped up to be the worst season of Nady's career, he still has value as a platoon player that won't fall on his face if pressed into full-time duty. It would appear that staying in the NL makes the most sense, but perhaps the more hitter friendly parks of the AL would benefit Nady the most. There's no reason to think he'll be able to find a multi-year deal or get a considerable raise on the open market, so I would expect him to sign for a contract very similar to what he agreed to last winter. 

Elias Rankings Update

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After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 18th, 2010.  Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.

Talks Picking Up Between Dunn, Nationals

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Talks about a contract extension between Adam Dunn and the Nationals have "picked back up" according to the first baseman, and he says a deal "could happen today." That appears to be a little optimistic on Dunn's part, but we'll let you decide. Here is exactly what he said, courtesy of The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore…

"I do [think I'll be a National in 2011]," Dunn said. "More than I did a month ago. Talks have picked back up. We'll see what happens. We're obviously talking. We're going to work something out, I think."

"Going to free agency doesn't mean I'm leaving here. I'm sure whenever the season is over, I'll have, whatever it is, a month. If things haven't worked out here, yeah, it's going to go to free agency. But that doesn't mean I'm not coming here."

The Adam Dunn contract extension saga has lasted all year long, with both sides expressing interest in getting a deal done only to have nothing in place with the season about to draw to a close. Dunn indicated that he's in no hurry to sign, acknowledging that it's probably a disadvantage for him to agree to a deal without at least seeing what the open market has to offer.

Dunn, 30, is hitting .262/.358/.542 with 35 homers this season. He's gone deep at least 35 times in seven straight years, and right now the ability to hit for power is at a premium around the league. Despite the obvious fit, Dunn reiterated that he does not want to be a full-time designated hitter in the future, something that will work against him as a free agent. 

Jayson Werth Now Represented By Scott Boras

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Soon-to-be free agent outfielder Jayson Werth is now represented by Scott Boras, reports Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com (via Twitter). Werth split with the Beverly Hills Sports Council earlier this month and was said to be looking for an agent that charged less than the usual 5% commission. 

Along with Carl Crawford, the 31-year-old Werth figures to be the most highly sought-after free agent outfielder this winter. His 3-for-5 day today included a walk-off homer, pushing his season line to .292/.381/.521 with 24 homers and a career best .902 OPS. 

Speculation earlier this season had Werth getting something similar to the four-year, $66MM contract that Jason Bay received last winter, but never underestimate Scott Boras. Both players hit the market at age 31 and put up very similar triple-slash lines in their walk years (Bay had a .921 OPS in 2009), but Werth is superior defensively and has World Series experience to his credit. 

Click here to see our full list of Boras clients.

MLBTR Originals: 9/12/10 – 9/19/10

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Here at MLBTR we're all about up-to-the-second hot stove news, but we also provide plenty of original content as well. Let's look back at the week that was in the exclusive-to-MLBTR department…

Manager Notes: Baker, Gibson, Torre

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A couple of interesting managerial notes for your Sunday reading pleasure:

  • Dusty Baker continues to mull over the contract extension offered by the Reds, writes the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay. It's believed that the offer was for multiple years, but Baker won't confirm that. He says that he's focused on winning a division title, not his own future.
  • In a piece for MLB.com, George Von Benko writes that Kirk Gibson says he'd like to continue managing the Diamondbacks, but regardless of who's in charge, the organization will be headed in a different direction in 2011.
  • Joe Torre called rumors connecting him to the Mets "irresponsible," writes MLB.com's Ken Gurnick. According to Torre, he's had no conversations with anyone regarding his future.

Week In Review: 9/12/10 – 9/18/10

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Sundays might mean hours upon hours of football for most sports fans, but around here it means it's time to look back at the past seven days on MLBTR. Here we go:

Free Agent Stock Watch: Hideki Matsui

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After seven seasons in pinstripes, Hideki Matsui imitated his former teammate Bobby Abreu and headed west on a one-year deal with the Angels. At one year and $6MM, the Angels figured to be getting a solid designated hitter to complement Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Kendry Morales as the big bats in the middle of the order.

Matsui trudged through a slow first half though, slugging under .400 and posting just a .732 OPS. Since the All-Star break, however, Godzilla has roared back to life. Hitting .306/.405/.567, Matsui has raised his stock for this offseason considerably. He's matched his first-half home run total of 10 in just 185 plate appearances (as opposed to 335 in the first half) while lowering his K% and increasing his BB%.

Still, Matsui's value in the coming offseason will suffer as a result of his inability to play defense. Plagued by knee injuries, he's been reduced to nearly full-time DHing. He's seen just 122 innings in left field this season, and while that's too small of a sample size to judge from, Matsui has never posted a positive UZR over the course of his eight major league seasons.

Matsui's numbers against left-handed pitching have taken a hit this season as well. While he holds a career OPS of .809 versus southpaws, his .679 mark this season isn't going to appeal to many teams.

There aren't many DHs already under contract for 2011, though the Red Sox and Twins hold options for David Ortiz and Jason Kubel. Vladimir Guerrero has a mutual option in Texas and Travis Hafner is set in Cleveland, but there could be a number of open destinations for Matsui. He'll join the likes of Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, and his bat could be one of the more attractive DH options on the market thanks to his second-half surge.

At age 36 and unable to be counted on for defense, it's hard to see Matsui commanding multiple years on the free agent market. If a team believes his struggles against left-handed pitching are a fluke, his scorching second half could be enough to earn him a contract similar to the one he signed this past offseason.

MacPhail: O’s Will Look To Upgrade Offense

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The Orioles' bats haven't dazzled this season, ranking 27th in runs scored and 22nd in team OPS at .705. Peter Schmuck from the Baltimore Sun relays some information from Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail, saying that the O's will look to upgrade those marks via free agency this offseason.

Sitting in the MASN broadcast booth during the Orioles game, MacPhail said they'd be looking at players who had a chance to improve their performance in 2011. Schmuck, like many Orioles fans, shudders at the thought of a repeat of this past offseason's Garrett Atkins signing, but that does seem to be what MacPhail was hinting at.

A couple of potential free agents who fit that mold could be (my own speculation) Jhonny Peralta (if his club option is declined) or Jorge Cantu. Several new candidates will likely arise in the form of non-tendered players, like Atkins a year prior. The O's won't be looking to break the bank on free agents though; MacPhail conceded that they're more than a player or two away from contention, but also said he isn't going to sit idly and wait.

Baltimore has a few players entrenched in their current positions — Matt Wieters, Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis. Luke Scott can play first base or the outfield, but has served as mostly a designated hitter. Overall though, they have the flexibility to look for veteran plug-ins for several spots on the diamond, and the money coming off the books to make it happen. Between Kevin Millwood, Cesar Izturis, Koji Uehara, and Ty Wigginton, the O's have over $20MM freeing up this winter.

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