I’m writing a series of guest posts at FanGraphs, one of the first places baseball fans go for top analysis and stats. Today, I show that the Tigers are taking an unconventional approach to rotation depth. Most teams are picking up non-roster invitees and fringe starters to compete for rotation spots, but the Tigers appear content with their front five and willing to adjust on the fly if an injury arises.
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The Tigers are short on starting pitching. Their all young except for Penny. Verlander is makin 20 million a year, but the remaining candidates are all unproven.
Agreed. I don’t expect much of a difference at least for the start of the season between their rotation and the Yankees.
Both have a legit ace (Sabathia and Verlander), 2 vets (Burnett and Penny, possibly Garcia or Colon though added) and young guys who you’re not sure 100% how they’ll do (Porcello, Coke,Scharzer, Hughes Nova, and possibly a Yankee prospect but I highly doubt that)
If I had to pick who had the better rotation as of now, probably the Tigers I’d go with.
Max, JV, and Ricky are all studs. Penny and coke could be solid, with the emphasis on COULD. While there are questions about their depth, the tigers farm systems is rich in pitching. Worst case scenario, Oliver gets called up due to an injury or coke not working out forcing him back to the bullpen and/or they have to make a midseason trade. I wouldn’t count on bonderman being available(or ready if he sits out) but he could possibly be an option. As a fan, I’m not too worried about our starting staff. There are plenty of options regarding many scenarios. On the plus side, barring anything horrible happening and forcing a compromising situation on the season, detroit’s rotation should be set up for years too come, especially if their prospects pan out and come anywhere near the potential they have.
In a few years a rotation of Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Turner, and Oliver has the potential to be the best in baseball. Obviously Turner and Oliver have a long way to go, and Porcello has to bounce back, but there’s a lot of potential there!
How is Rick Porcello a stud? If you want to be a “stud”, you have to strike batters out. He’s completely unproven, and his upside at this point appears to be about 85% of Brandon Webb when Brandon Webb was at his peak. That’s great and all, but it’s not a stud.
I find it strange how memes spread in baseball. Some guys just get this label somehow, as though it’s a foregone conclusion that they’ll be awesome, and yet there’s little actual evidence that they will. Other times, perfectly good players are very prematurely seen as busts before they even have a chance to dig their heels in. Good example: Pablo Sandoval. Everyone here in San Francisco (and elsewhere) talks about Sandoval as though he’s a completely lost cause, and I honestly don’t know where that came from. Yes he had a bad year, but he’s fine. He’s going to be fine, and he’s going to bounce back this year. The reason is that 23-year olds that have .300+ batting averages in 3300 PA, 1400 of which have come in the majors (where the career average is also .300+) are almost always going to continue to do well.
Guys who strike out 91 minor leaguers in 153 IP and 173 major leaguers in 333 IP, well, they MIGHT be good I guess, if something clicks, and it no doubt helps if they’re 22 years old, but counting on a guy like that being good just seems ridiculous. No matter how old you are, you have to put batters away, and Porcello has not shown that he can do that. If I had to bet on it I’d say we’re not looking at budding Brandon Webb, we’re looking at a budding Jon Garland.
the guy has only been in the league for two years—So his name doesnt give him entitlement to anything.
His rookie year the guy was stellar. That was a 20 year old kid posting great numbers. While he struggle mightily the first half of last year, he really put together a great second half.
As for his strike outs, since when do you have do be a K pitcher to be great? I would take a whole strating 5 of pitchers who post his groundball rate. Groundballs=Outs. Im not saying he is going to post Cliff Lee type numbers, but there isnt a better third started in the leauge, with the exception of Oswalt.
Like I said, take away the first half of last year and the guy has been nothing but stellar, ESPECIALLY considering he wont be 23 until midway through the season.
Sometimes I just cant stand readers that follow fangraphs. One of the comments complains about the lack of stats (“Meat of the article”).
Seriously, unless you throw those dweebs an obscure sabermetric stat, they will stick their nose up. They are the hipsters of baseball statistics
Agreed its unconventional, but I think DD’s mindset is that, the fringe guys they could have picked up for depth are no better than the guys they have on the farm. Besides, if one of the key pieces were to go down of an extended period of time, JV, Shrz, Porc, the season is pretty much shot anyways. You aren’t going to replace their production with a fringe starter added for depth. The Tigers have Oliver, Furbush, Gonzalez Oxspring, Albuquerque, on the farm that could be used for spot starts.
I mean, Bonderman and Galaragga were pretty bad last year. I think the tigers have seen enough of them.
Alburquerque hasn’t started since 2007, in Low-A. I don’t think you’ll see him make any spot starts. But there are a number of other options beyond what you’ve listed, pending how they perform in 2011.
Agreed its unconventional, but I think DD’s mindset is that, the fringe guys they could have picked up for depth are no better than the guys they have on the farm. Besides, if one of the key pieces were to go down of an extended period of time, JV, Shrz, Porc, the season is pretty much shot anyways. You aren’t going to replace their production with a fringe starter added for depth. The Tigers have Oliver, Furbush, Gonzalez Oxspring, Albuquerque, on the farm that could be used for spot starts.
I mean, Bonderman and Galaragga were pretty bad last year. I think the tigers have seen enough of them.
The Tigers still gag at the millions they paid to Nate, Dontrelle and Bondo….when, not if, the rotation needs filling the replacements will earn MLB minimum.
I’m making them sound cheap, but the big bucks didn’t result in effective starts, either.
Comment removed due to disqus being unable to do as I say.
I highly doubt they would sign somebody if the need comes to be. They have too many strong options in the minors. It could happen, but with all that firepower they have in all of their young arms, I think they feel all of their answers will be in the farm system. A signing could happen, but I see it very unlikely they would sign a temp pitcher with the stable of young arms.