The Braves are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.
Eligible For Free Agency (3)
- Veteran relievers Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill will be free agents, so the Braves figure to dabble in the relief market again.
- Shortstop Alex Gonzalez might be worth re-signing if the Braves want an affordable shortstop, unless they feel Tyler Pastornicky is ready.
Contract Options (2)
- Nate McLouth: $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout. This figures to be declined.
- Eric Hinske: $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout. There's a good chance the Braves pick this one up.
Arbitration Eligible (5)
- First year: Kris Medlen (has a shot at Super Two)
- Second year: Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, Eric O'Flaherty
- Third year: Peter Moylan
Jurrjens will be the best-paid of the group, with $6MM a possibility depending on how this season goes. The Braves' arbitration eligible players could cost around $15MM in total.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Braves' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $62.742MM excluding Hinske's buyout. Add in Hinske and the arbitration eligible players and you're in the $80MM range. That'd leave $15MM to spend assuming payroll is around $95MM. The Braves could add $6-15MM in flexibility (minus the salaries of the players coming back) by trading Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, or Derek Lowe, as they have great rotation depth. They might be in the market for a shortstop, a center fielder, and a reliever or two.
What I think they should and might do:
Unless Linebrink or Sherrill (who have been impressive lately) really impress or fit in the bulpen this year then they will likely be swapped out for two similarly priced veteran middle relievers next year. They also may only be looking for one if they decide Medlen should come back as a 7th/8th inning guy instead of a starter. The way things have gone so far with Venters and Kimbrel they won’t be in the market for a late inning reliever.
I would like to bring back Gonzalez on a similar contract to the one he is on now – 2.5MM with a 2.5MM option. Shortstops who are excellent defensively, like Gonzalez has been historically and has been incredible lately, and have at least one above average offensive skill like Gonzalez’s ~20HR power are not easy to find. Enjoy the defense and leadership at a low cost that allows other areas to be addressed and then just bat him 7th or 8th and hope for an XBH. Pastornicky might be ready next year but it wouldn’t hurt to keep him in AAA as insurance as none of our other SS prospects are that close.
Hinkse is an easy pickup if he does about what he did last year. McLouth is likely gone but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him brought back at a lower cost. Most likely Schafer will earn/be given the job and hopefully he is finally healthy enough to be the ++ CF defender with OBP and speed at the plate.
I don’t see too many non-tender candidates from the arb eligibles.
If you include Teheran they will have seven viable (even seven above average) starting pitchers so its entirely possible one gets traded. I would like to keep the depth but if a team makes a great offer sending Jurrjens might be the move to make. Outside of the top seven having guys like Medlen back healthy and other prospects like Delgado, Hoover etc ready could further facilitate a starter being moved.
With the bats already under team control and overall pitching depth there wont be much to do next year.
I agree with most of the stuff you have written here except for the part about Gonzalez. While he has been stellar defensively so far this year, historically he has been slightly below average. And last year looks like more of an anomaly in the HR department, as historically he is about a 10-12 HR kinda guy.
Now having said all that I wouldn’t mind seeing him re-signed to a 1 year deal in the $2.5M range as you said. Any more than that and it seems like you could go get a better defensive SS cheaper.
Why did they start Pastornicky in AA again?
Escobar trade = Braves Fail
It would be hard to see the Braves trading Tim Hudson. I could see them trading Jurrjens if the Braves get a good deal or even dealing Lowe to give more flexibility in the payroll. That way we could go out and get a big name CF or SS in FA.
Bring back Gonzalez, decline McLouth’s option and bring back Hinske, who many teams I bet wish had signed him as he’s done well off the bench.
Hudson isn’t going anywhere. Good contract, local guy, good in the community and has 10-5 rights.
If I’m GM, I look to dump Lowe – even though he is pitching great – for financial flexibility. We don’t need relievers – Asencio, Marek, Medlen, Beachy. Teheran comes up in middle of May to avoid super two and completes the rotation. With Lowe off the books Braves should have $30M to obtain a SS and CF, I would take Reyes and Beltran and call it a day.
CF: Beltran in center scares me. If Schafer isn’t ready this might be a place we need to move a prospect for.
SS: Has a lot of possibilities this next offseason. Rollins, Reyes, Gonzalez, Hardy. I’d like to see a Reyes or Rollins splash here as long as its not too pricey.
Pitching: Moving Lowe might be the best course of action here. Beachy has looked good and Teheran won’t be denied for long, Minor could force his way up too. In the pen I’d like to see them let the kids duke it out: Kimbrel, Venters, Moylan, O’Flaherty, Ascencio, Marek, and Martinez with Medlen ending up somewhere in there could be a nasty pen. By then I think you just call Moylan and O’Flaherty your veteran presence and run with it.
Basically if the Braves can unload Lowe’s salary for next year, trade for a cost controlled CFer, and fill the hole at SS they’ve probably filled out the team at 10-15M under budget. Then I’d like to see contracts for Heyward and Hanson (Like to see that with Jurrjens too but Boras won’t let that happen)
Hanson is a Boras client now too, but Heyward might be amenable to a team-friendly deal.
Good point on Hanson. My thought on him versus Jurrjens was that JJ was 2 years closer to free agency, but you’re right with Hanson being a Boras client makes it unlikely.
I want nothing to do with Jimmy Rollins. Not because I’m a homer, but because he’s declining pretty rapidly….
Rollins’ is definitely in decline but he is nowhere near as bad as he was last year, injuries took a toll. I unfortunately expect better from him this year.
Since his MVP award in 2007, Rollins has a .258, .320, .414 line. His OPS has seen a significant drop in all 3 years. His bat is declining even without the injuries. The injuries are even more reason to stay away from him. Even at $5-6 million a year, I wouldn’t feel comfortable having Rollins as my teams primary SS. If you want solid defense and extra-base hits, resign Alex Gonzalez. At least he’s proved to be healthier as of late.
If I’m GM, I look to dump Lowe – even though he is pitching great – for financial flexibility. We don’t need relievers – Asencio, Marek, Medlen, Beachy. Teheran comes up in middle of May to avoid super two and completes the rotation. With Lowe off the books Braves should have $30M to obtain a SS and CF, I would take Reyes and Beltran and call it a day.
I don’t see the Braves trading Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson, or Hudson during the season unless they’re out of the race at the deadline. Teheran may very well be ready, but do you really want 2(possibly 3 if injuries take a toll) rookies in the rotation during a playoff race? The Braves need the stability Lowe provides this season. They may trade some young pitching to fill-in another area, but it won’t be any of those 4. I do expect Jurrjens or Lowe to be moved in the offseason though, assuming the young pitching continues to develop.
I wouldnt dare touch Beltran with even someone else’s money. He’s done. Reyes would be a catalyst for the top of the lineup and I’d take him for no more than $7-9M per.
I wish the Braves could get Reyes for $7-9m/season, but the only way he signs for that little is if he is hurt for 60 games this year. And at that point there would be some very legit questions about his ability to stay healthy. If he plays 150 games this year, I’m betting that the starting point is 75/5 or 90/6, and that might be the low end.
Trading tim collins away was a mistake, braves are running low on quality lefty relievers on the farm. But they have 3 quality relievers in AAA, Marek, Juan Abreu, and Jairo Asencio(previously known as Luis Valdez, and was called up because of Moylan’s injury). Linebrink and Sherril have been inconsistent, they either look great or can’t get an out(like yesterday with Linebrink).
Venters and EOF make a third lefty reliever a bit redundant (as Sherrill currently is), so lefty reliever depth isn’t too big of a deal. Relievers are by far one of the easiest commodities to find anyway.
For all the hype, Collins is just another lefty reliever. The strikeouts are nice, but he’s wild and has been hit pretty well thus far. Hard to complain about a trade when the pitcher is currently allowing a .409 OBP. Probably shouldn’t be in the majors right now in the first place…but that’s the Royals’ fault, not his. He’ll probably be great someday, but it ain’t today.
-C
Rollins, Beltran? You gotta be kidding!
Yeah, great, let’s sign a couple of overpriced guys in their mid-30s and watch them continue to decline …
Don’t lump those two comments. I think Rollins is a potential buy low candidate if he has another mediocre season this year. Beltran is just flat out too old and broken to be a center fielder. Also again I don’t like Beltran, but he will be much cheaper next year, and I don’t see either guy getting a long term deal. Rollins would have to rake to get to 3-4 years and I can’t see any situation netting Beltran more than a year. He might make an AL team a decent DH/LF option.
If Rollins has another mediocre year, I’d take that as an indication of his decline as opposed to an opportunity to buy low.
Don’t forget that Kenshin Kawakami’s ~7M salary is off the books next year as well.
I am also in favor of re-signing Alex Gonzalez to a similar deal worth ~3M with a club option and a 750K buyout. Eric Hinkse’s option will almost undoubtedly be picked up.
McLouth, Sherrill and Linebrink will all be gone at the end of the season. Marek and Medlen will take their places in the bullpen.
This offseason will be the time to trade Derek Lowe as a time will finally be willing to take on his 15M salary and his replacement is readily available in the Braves system. A straight salary dump for prospects would be beneficial for the Braves.
I also could see Chipper Jones possibly retiring as he desires to end his career on a high note at above-average production.
So you figure with Chipper Jones, Derek Lowe, Nate McLouth, George Sherill, Scott Linebrink and Kenshin Kawakami salaries off the books, subtrated by raises to Brian McCann, Peter Moylan, Eric O’Flaherty, Dan Uggla, Martin Prado, Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen and Nate McLouth’s buyout, the Braves would have approximately 23M to spend on LF and CF (assuming Prado is shifted back to 3B).
I figure they Braves signed Josh Willingham to 3/36 with a vesting option for a fourth year to play LF and trade Jair Jurrjens, Arodys Vizcaino, Christian Bethancourt and Jordan Schafer to LA for Matt Kemp to play CF.
Mike Minor and Julio Teheran take Lowe and Jurrjens’ places in the rotation.
I also wouldn’t mind re-signing Omar Infante as a utility player.
Tim Hudson
Tommy Hanson
Brandon Beachy
Mike Minor
Julio Teheran
Martin Prado (3B) R
Jason Heyward (RF) L
Matt Kemp (CF) R
Brian McCann (C) L
Dan Uggla (2B) R
Josh Willingham (LF) L
Alex Gonzalez (SS) R
Freddie Freeman (1B) L
David Ross
Eric Hinske
Omar Infante
Brooks Conrad
Matt Young
Craig Kimbrel (CL)
Johnny Venters
Peter Moylan
Stephen Marek
Jose Ascenio
Eric O’Flaherty
Kris Medlen
Not that L.A. is looking to part with Kemp, but it would take more than Vizcaino, Jurrjens, Betanchourt, and Schafer. I mean, unless Kemp has a terrible year.
If Schafer bounces back, he’s the starting center fielder in 2011. However, if the Rays become sellers, I think Wren should make a strong push for Upton.
I have to disagree
Kemp had an off year last year and is eligible for FA soon. A solid young cost controlled major league pitcher, a projected future ace, a 19 year old stud catcher and a high reward low risk cost controlled CF in Schafer isn’t a bad package
I hope they pass on Willingham. He is just a little too injury prone for my blood.
my guess is that Mclouth will be traded by the trade deadline. I have watched Schafer play and he is ready to move up. It all depends on what they can get for Mclouth in a trade as to what they will do next. Mclouth putting up better numbers this year will make him a worthy investment for some team like Washington
Schafer is hitting poorly in Gwinette, he is by no means ready he needs more AB’s. McLouth is hitting real well so I don’t think they trade McLouth or Move up Schafer, hell they might even have to bring back McLouth next year if he isn’t ready (at a severely reduced price of course)
I wonder what the D-Backs would want for Stephen Drew? Jose Reyes would be fantastic.