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Archives for April 2011

Draft Notes: Bradley, Bauer, Wong, Springer

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We're 41 days away from the amateur draft! The Pirates, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Royals will lead off with the first five picks. Click here to see the entire draft order. Several of the links below require subscriptions, which we heartily recommend purchasing. Today's notes:

  • ESPN's Keith Law hears that South Carolina outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. has a torn ligament in his wrist and could miss the rest of the spring (Twitter link). Bradley was expected to be a first round pick before the injury.
  • Baseball America's John Manuel, Jim Callis, and Conor Glassey make picks for the first round – not projections, but their own preferences.
  • UCLA righty Trevor Bauer is a top five candidate, writes Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, but there are concerns over his workload. Talking to ESPN's Jason A. Churchill, one assistant GM admitted he's worried about Bauer's pitch counts. He's averaged 124.5 pitches per start, according to Churchill.
  • In a draft heavy on pitching, Goldstein says second baseman Kolten Wong out of Hawaii "is now getting late first round consideration."
  • Connecticut outfielder George Springer has bounced back lately, perhaps enough to put him within the first ten picks, says Churchill. For more on Springer, check out Ben Nicholson-Smith's interview. Ben's other prospective draft pick interviews include Sonny Gray, Matt Purke, Danny Hultzen, and the elusive Gerrit Cole.
  • Current buzz from Churchill still has Rice's Anthony Rendon going to the Mariners at #2 overall.

Dodgers Links: Schieffer, IRS, FOX

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Earlier today we learned that former Rangers president Tom Schieffer is expected to be appointed as Dodgers' trustee by MLB, a little less than a week after the league took over the team's financial operations. Here's a round up of news items surrounding the team…

  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports spoke to a former MLB executive that calls Schieffer "an outstanding choice" (Twitter links). "[Schieffer] is bright, was a good operator and probably has no aspirations to pursue a continuing job or equity stake with the team," said the exec.
  • Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports hears that Schieffer will take over all financial and day-to-day business operations of the team and will "presumably lead baseball’s investigation into [Frank McCourt]'s business practices."
  • In a tweet, Brown says that billionare business magnate Ron Burkle would have interest in buying the team, but he has not joined former Dodgers' first baseman Steve Garvey in a venture to do so. We heard the opposite over the weekend.
  • SI.com's Jon Heyman spoke to a person close to the team that said it was the IRS, not MLB's takeover that sent the Dodgers' office into a panic. The McCourts managed to take $100MM from the team but didn't pay taxes for seven years.
  • Remember that 20-year, $3 billion television deal with FOX that McCourt tried to get approved by MLB? Joe Flint of The Los Angeles Times reports that it's really a 13-year deal valued at $1.6 billion.

Quick Hits: Bautista, Jeter, Clevlen, Astros

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Ten years ago today, the Rockies signed an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic named Ubaldo Jimenez. Now the 27-year-old ace boasts a 3.59 career ERA and 669 strikeouts in 744 innings. Today's links:

  • Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays is in the mix as the best hitter in the American League, writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. If that's true, his five-year, $65MM contract will turn out to be a significant bargain.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman to Derek Jeter in a November 30th meeting: "You said all you wanted was what was fair. How much higher do we have to be than the highest offer for it to be fair?" That's from Ian O'Connor's source; the ESPNNewYork.com writer has a new book out next month on Jeter.
  • The Wichita Wingnuts signed former big league outfielder Brent Clevlen, announced the team. The independent league club is partially owned by a former teammate of Clevlen's, Nate Robertson.
  • MLB.com's Brian McTaggart looks at the potential roster moves the Astros could make when Clint Barmes is activated off the disabled list, possibly as soon as this coming weekend.

Mariners Release Justin Miller

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The Mariners have released Justin Miller according to Ryan Divish of The Tacoma News Tribune (on Twitter). Miller informed the team that he planned to exercise the May 1st opt-out clause in his contract, so they told him he could leave now.

The 33-year-old right-hander appeared in six games for Seattle's Triple-A affiliate this year, striking out seven and walking five in 8 2/3 relief innings. He last appeared in the big leagues with the Dodgers last season, when he posted impressive strikeout (11.1 K/9) and walk (3.0 BB/9) rates in 24 1/3 innings. Miller has also pitched for Giants, Marlins, and Blue Jays in an MLB career that started back in 2002.

Pirates Notes: Clement, Wood, Sanchez

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If they continue at their current pace, the Pirates will win 69 games this year, a level they haven't reached since 2004.  That year, Oliver Perez posted a 2.98 ERA with 239 strikeouts, Jason Bay slugged .550, and Jose Mesa saved 43 games.  Today's Bucs links:

  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports has a feature on the Jeff Clement, one of few draft picks among the first dozen in 2005 who has yet to become at least a big league regular.  The Mariners nearly chose Troy Tulowitzki third overall instead of Clement, but GM Bill Bavasi apparently drafted for need.  Clement's agent Brodie Van Wagenen believes his client didn't get a legitimate opportunity with the Mariners.  Clement is trying to move forward as a first baseman for the Pirates, once he recovers from knee surgery.
  • Regarding recent low-risk pickup Brandon Wood, GM Neal Huntington told Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Our scouts still see the authority off the bat, they still see the raw power, they still see the impact.  Obviously the guy with this kind of pedigree, sometimes a change of scenery helps these guys. Our due diligence we did said it's a good person, it's a hard worker who needed a change of scenery."  Wood's Pirates debut will come tonight at third base, batting sixth against John Lannan and the Nationals.
  • Freddy Sanchez took his '09 trade from the Pirates to the Giants hard, he told Brink's colleague Dejan Kovacevic.  It didn't help that he wasn't able to contribute much to his new team due to knee and shoulder injuries.
  • Be sure to check out MLBTR's Pirates Facebook and Twitter pages and RSS feed.  For my look at the team's 2012 contract issues, click here.

MLB Appoints Tom Schieffer As Dodgers Trustee

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Former Rangers president Tom Schieffer is expected to be appointed as MLB's Dodgers trustee today, reports Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times.  You can read Bud Selig's statement here.  Shaikin notes that the 63-year-old Schieffer served as Rangers president from 1991-99, during which time the club was owned by George W. Bush's ownership group for the most part.

After his time with the Rangers, Schieffer served as an ambassador to Australia and Japan under the Bush administration.  More recently, Schieffer ran for governor of Texas as a member of the Democratic party.

Rosenthal On Fielder, Putz, Reyes

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The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…

  • Rosenthal discussed Prince Fielder in his Full Count video on Saturday and has a bit more today.  The FOX writer spoke to agent Scott Boras, who talked up Fielder's "flexibility, dexterity, and athleticism," noting that his small strike zone gives him an advantage.  You have to think Boras will set the bar at seven years and be aiming for eight, so he'll need to be able to convince NL teams that Fielder will hold up through his early 30s.
  • The White Sox made a two-year offer to J.J. Putz early in the winter meetings, but it wasn't close to the $10MM the Diamondbacks offered.
  • The Twins "probably won’t be a factor in the Jose Reyes sweepstakes" due to the shortstop's $11MM salary, in the opinion of Rosenthal.  My take: if Reyes is dealt on deadline day he'll have $5.4MM remaining, and I'd be surprised if the Twins couldn't find a way to fit that in if money was the only holdup.
  • Stan Kasten "will step on toes," says one exec who thinks he'd be an excellent choice as the Dodgers' trustee.  On Wednesday, Commissioner Bud Selig said in a statement, "I will announce the name of my representative in the next several days."

2012 Contract Issues: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (4)

Contract Options (3)

  • James Shields: $7MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  Otherwise arbitration eligible.  This seems like it will be an easy choice to exercise.  Shields is under control through 2014, and if he becomes available this summer or winter the Rays could get a nice bounty.  We're getting ahead of ourselves, though – the team is only three games back in the AL East.
  • Kelly Shoppach: $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout.  Shoppach hasn't done much hitting in his Rays career, so this is a tough call.  One factor to consider is the progress of catching prospect Robinson Chirinos.
  • Kyle Farnsworth: $3.3MM club option with a $650K buyout.  He's gotten the job done so far, and this option will merit consideration.

Arbitration Eligible (7)

Price is primed for a record-setting salary for a first-time arbitration eligible starting pitcher, say around $5.5MM.  Niemann could get $3MM, though the Rays could trade him as early as this summer even if they are contending.  Upton's price will be held down by his unspectacular offense, but he could get $7MM or more and is also a trade candidate.  There is some uncertainty with the other pitchers but for the sake of argument if everyone besides Johnson is retained the total bill could be around $21MM.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Rays' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $13MM excluding buyouts.  However we could tack on as much as $35MM if the three options are exercised and the arbitration eligibles are retained.  That'd have the club $6MM over this year's payroll, which was reduced drastically from years prior.  There are many moving parts here, and given their current big league talent and highly-regarded farm system, the Rays should find a way to compete next year even if payroll stays under $50MM.  That is no small feat.

Center Field Options For The Nationals

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Six days ago, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Nationals are searching for a center field upgrade.  They haven't talked to the Rays about B.J. Upton, but it's unlikely we'll see any significant trades in general until the second half of June anyway.  Which center fielders might be available this summer aside from Upton?  We won't consider those who will be eligible for free agency after the season, other than Sizemore.

  • Angel Pagan, Mets.  Pagan will be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season, so the Mets might not consider him their long-term answer in center field. Would Sandy Alderson be open to sending him to a division rival?  He's struggling so far in his second full season as a regular.
  • Marlon Byrd, Cubs.  Brett Jackson, perhaps the Cubs' top prospect, is primed to push Byrd aside soon.  Byrd, 33, is owed $6.5MM next year.  He might not be what the Nationals have in mind.
  • Matt Kemp, Dodgers.  The Dodgers can easily keep Kemp and Trayvon Robinson in the same outfield by moving Kemp to a corner.  I can't picture the Dodgers' ownership situation forcing a trade of Kemp, even if his salary exceeds $10MM next year before he hits free agency.  I could see a new owner agreeing to a mega-extension with Kemp, but if they can't find common ground perhaps he'd become available this winter.
  • Michael Bourn, Astros.  Bourn is a viable trade candidate.  The Scott Boras client is under team control through 2012 and earns $4.4MM this year.
  • Rajai Davis, Blue Jays.  The Jays are light on short-term alternatives without Davis – note that Corey Patterson is starting in center while Davis recovers from an ankle injury.  Still, I expect Alex Anthopoulos to keep an open mind.  Davis' contract will look team-friendly if he starts performing.
  • Julio Borbon, Rangers.  If the Rangers continue to gravitate toward David Murphy in center field and feel good longer-term about Engel Beltre and Leonys Martin, Borbon could be expendable.
  • Aaron Rowand, Giants.  Rowand is having a decent April, taking over in center when Andres Torres hit the DL.  However, the Giants would have to pick up almost all of the $22MM owed to him through 2012 to move him.
  • Grady Sizemore, Indians.  The first-place Indians hope to be thinking about adding rather than subtracting this July.  If things go wrong, Sizemore will be very attractive on the trade market, even though his 2012 option becomes a player option upon a trade.  For that reason, he may not be a fit for the Nationals even if he's made available.
  • Chris Denorfia, Padres.  He continues to play well in a fourth outfielder role, but perhaps he could be had.
  • Felix Pie, Orioles.  Pie is another fourth outfielder type who can handle center.  The Orioles need him around as a center field backup, but they'd have to listen if the Nationals made a solid offer.
  • Chris Heisey, Reds.  Heisey is a cost-effective left field option for the Reds, so he might be hard to pry loose.
  • Charlie Blackmon, Rockies.  The Rockies' #11 prospect could work his way into the right field mix, or the team could consider a trade.
  • Scott Cousins, Marlins.  Cousins ranked seventh among Marlins prospects heading into the season, according to Baseball America.  Right now he's needed by the Marlins as Chris Coghlan's center field backup, and he'll see increased playing time while Logan Morrison is out.  They may prefer to maintain the depth.  The Marlins did deal within the division with the Dan Uggla trade.
  • Mitch Maier, Royals.  Maier has played center field more than anywhere else.  The 28-year-old may have to settle for an extra outfielder job if he remains in Kansas City.
  • Torii Hunter, Angels.  What do the Angels do when Mike Trout is Major League ready?  Vernon Wells is probably immovable, so you have to wonder if they could trade Hunter.  Hunter is only under contract through 2012 though so it's quite possible they make it work without a deal.

As you can see, I can speculate on more than a dozen center field trade candidates.  However, some might not offer a clear upgrade over the Nationals' internal options.  At this point, Bourn and Upton seem like the most likely fits if they become available this year.

How Do Teams Replace Sudden Losses?

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When the Tampa Bay Rays suddenly found themselves without Manny Ramirez, it was assumed that the production fallout would be extreme. After all, who ever heard of Sam Fuld?

Now, of course, everybody has heard of Fuld and his 156 OPS+ this season. While it is unlikely to continue, Fuld provides a feel-good story that exceeds whatever goodwill the Rays would have received from a Ramirez renaissance. The Rays could still make a move to add offensive production, and I wanted to take a closer look at how teams filled unexpected non-injury losses.

The Ramirez loss brought back to mind the last time Manny's drug issues left his employer short-handed. The year was 2009. Barack Obama was President of the United States. America's television networks were overrun by reality shows. And suddenly, baseball was Manny-less for 50 games.

Stepping into Manny's shoes was Juan Pierre in left field. During Ramirez's suspension, Pierre managed a .318/.381/.411 line, solid production at the position. Overall, his 104 OPS+ was the second-highest of his career. He wasn't Manny, but he kept the Dodgers on pace for 95 wins and a division title. It was not the disaster many feared.

The stakes were very different back in 1989, when an aging Mike Schmidt unexpectedly retired on May 28th with a season line of .203/.297/.372. Hopes had been high for Schmidt to regain his Hall of Fame form after a down 1988, but 172 plate appearances in, Schmidt acknowledged that he simply wasn't the same player anymore.

With internal options Chris James and Randy Ready stretched as everyday third basemen, the Phillies made a deal three weeks later, trading Steve Bedrosian and Rick Parker to the Giants for Charlie Hayes, Terry Mulholland and Dennis Cook. Hayes provided an OPS+ of 93 as the regular third baseman, around where Schmidt was when he called it quits.

The move helped Philadelphia eventually win the National League in 1993, along with a second deal that day with the Mets to bring Lenny Dykstra into the fold. At the time, however, it was the Charlie Hayes trade, and Hayes left the Philadelphia fans disappointed, both because Schmidt was impossible to replace, and because the Phillies finished 67-95.

The fill-ins for Thurman Munson back in 1979 didn't live up to even Charlie Hayes production. Munson, who died in a plane crash in August 1979, left the Yankees with a pair of catchers: Jerry Narron and Brad Gulden. While Munson's contributions extended beyond his OPS+ of 95, Narron and Gulden couldn't approach that, Narron checking in at 44, Gulden at 23. For reference, 1979 NL Cy Young Award winner Bruce Sutter, a relief pitcher, had an OPS+ of 49. The Yankees finished at 89-71, good for fourth in a tremendous AL East.

Speaking of ex-Yankees, anyone who saw the John Goodman vehicle "The Babe" knows that Ruth hit three home runs, then retired from the Boston Braves in 1935. (Left out of the film are the five games that followed, but then my problems with that movie could fill a whole other column.) Ruth finally retired on May 30, in circumstances quite similar to Schmidt's. Ruth's .181/.359/.431 line was still good for an OPS+ of 118, down just a bit from his career mark of 206 (author's note: ZOMG), but well ahead of his replacements in left and right field. Both Hal Lee (96 OPS+) and Tommy Thompson (95 OPS+) failed to reach league-average at the position. And if you think that's bad, Hall of Famer Rabbit Maranville, a 43-year-old teammate of Ruth's on the 1935 Braves, put up an OPS+ of… 2. And he stayed for the whole season, a glorious 38-115 campaign.

So rest assured, Sam Fuld may come down from his 156 OPS+ perch. But the Rays are likely to best the 1935 Braves, no matter how badly Fuld slumps.

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