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Archives for May 2011

The Giants And Jose Reyes

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After being shut out by Tom Gorzelanny last night, the Giants rank second to last in the NL with 3.54 runs scored per game.  "We're awful right now," manager Bruce Bochy told reporters last night.  Pablo Sandoval, Andres Torres, and Mark DeRosa are currently on the disabled list.  Aubrey Huff, Miguel Tejada, and Cody Ross have been terrible so far, while Buster Posey has failed to meet lofty expectations in the early going.

Chatter for the Giants to recall Brandon Belt is increasing, as he's killed the ball in nine games for the Fresno Grizzlies.  CBS' Danny Knobler wondered this morning whether Belt can be the Posey of 2011, providing the team's offense with a jolt.

Reyes

ESPN's Buster Olney speculated on another possibility this morning in his blog, a potential acquisition Giants fans inquire about every week in my chats.  Mets shortstop Jose Reyes is off to a .309/.348/.439 start, similar to his career averages and a big upgrade over Tejada offensively and defensively.  The Giants would have to accommodate Reyes' $11MM salary, $3.57MM of which will still be owed to him if he's acquired on July 31st.  Also, the Giants "would have to give up a really, really good young player — the Mets presumably would ask for a top-of-the-line young pitcher," in Olney's opinion.  Interesting side note: Olney guesses that Reyes "could be convinced to stay by a solid multi-year offer," rather than test free agency.    

One factor determining the Mets' asking price for Reyes will be how many other teams are seriously in the mix for him.  The Twins could make an offer, but only if they pull themselves up out of the AL Central gutter.  The Athletics could use a boost at shortstop.  The Brewers are a nice match, though their farm system is depleted.

The cost of renting a star position player has varied in recent years.  A few examples:

  • In July of 2009, the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday and $1.5MM from the Athletics for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen, and Shane Peterson.  Prior to the '09 season, ESPN's Keith Law ranked Wallace 19th among all prospects, while Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein had him 37th.
  • In July of 2008, the Angels acquired Mark Teixeira from the Braves for Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek.  Marek wasn't a top 100 prospect, but he ranked sixth among Angels prospects before that season according to Baseball America.  BA ranked the Halos' farm system tenth in baseball.  Kotchman was 25 at the time, coming off a strong '07 season.  He was under team control through 2011 and owned a career line of .274/.337/.426.  Prior to his time in the Majors, BA had ranked Kotchman among their top 22 prospects four separate times.

These aren't great comparables, since Wallace was a top position player prospect and Kotchman was a decently-regarded first baseman headed for his second arbitration year.  Technically the Giants have a top position player prospect in Belt, who is universally considered among the top 25 prospects in the game.  I can't picture the Giants considering trading Belt's career for a couple months of Reyes, however.

If the Mets do focus on pitching, as Olney suggests, they'd have to ask for Zack Wheeler.  The righty was drafted sixth overall in '09 and is one of the 55 best prospects in the game on all lists. 

At the big league level, the Giants have two established starters the Mets could try to acquire.  One is Jonathan Sanchez, a solid lefty with a walk problem.  He's under team control through 2012; how much value would his '12 season at a salary of $8MM or so be of to the Mets?  Perhaps GM Sandy Alderson could flip Sanchez for longer-term players.  The Giants also have southpaw Madison Bumgarner, who is more valuable than Belt and controlled through 2016.  Like Belt, Bumgarner is way too much for Reyes.

The Giants do have the pieces to acquire Reyes, depending on how far they are willing to go.  I don't think it would take much more than Wheeler, if the Giants make that sacrifice.  Using Wheeler to get Reyes would at least allow the Giants to keep their big league rotation intact.  Building a deal around Sanchez would be easier to stomach long-term, but would leave a pretty big hole in the team's rotation.  And since Sanchez is only controlled through '12, the Giants might have to further dip into their stash of prospects to appease the Mets.  Though the Giants' farm system is considered among the bottom ten in the game, they do have interesting prospects beyond Belt and Wheeler.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

2012 Contract Issues: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (2)

  • Starter Joel Pineiro will be the Angels' most significant free agent.  Though he's missed about a dozen starts in his Angels career due to injuries, he's also maintained much of his '09 success with a 3.73 ERA in 159 1/3 innings.  Pineiro might be able to repeat his two-year, $16MM deal on the open market depending on how the rest of this season goes.  He gives the Angels nice depth as their fourth starter.
  • The Angels will be done with Fernando Rodney, whose two-year, $11MM deal was questionable from the start.

Contract Options (2)

  • Scott Kazmir: $13.5MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout.  Barring a shocking performance, Kazmir will become a free agent.
  • Bobby Abreu: $9MM option vests with 433 plate appearances in 2011.  Abreu needs only 308 more plate appearances, so three more months should do it.

Arbitration Eligible (7)

Weaver's arbitration case should be a big story in January and February of 2012, especially if his dominant 2011 season continues.  We'll have more on this topic later, but even after losing a hearing in February many agents think he'll be around $14-15MM for '12.

Morales hasn't played since breaking a bone in his leg almost a year ago.  His raise should be mild because of that.  Kendrick could jump up to $6MM, and raises for the others could put the group around $34MM if everyone is tendered a contract.  It is possible Mathis and Willits are cut loose, dropping the team's estimated arbitration eligible bill closer to $30MM.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Angels' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $79.117MM including Kazmir's buyout but not Abreu's.  Throw in at least $39MM more for Abreu and the arbitration eligibles, and you're around $118MM.  That's about $24MM shy of this year's payroll, so there is room to re-sign Pineiro while also considering a free agent or two to upgrade the left side of the infield.  If an infielder surplus is created, the team could shed a few million by trading someone.  They could also save on 2012 payroll by locking up Kendrick or even Weaver, if the righty is willing to buck the trend of top Scott Boras clients testing free agency.

Cubs Notes: Lilly, Derrek Lee, Millwood

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After last night's loss the Cubs are 12-16, in fifth place in the NL Central and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals.  The club's OBP ranks fifth in the NL, their SLG sixth, their relief ERA eighth, and their starter ERA dead last at 6.17.  The latest on the team:

  • Dodgers lefty Ted Lilly was "a little puzzled" that the Cubs traded him last summer rather than try to retain him, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.  Lilly said he was "willing to get creative to try and stay," but talks didn't get far before the July 31st deal.  The Cubs shipped out Lilly and Ryan Theriot with $5.158MM remaining on their contracts, but sent $2.5MM to the Dodgers in the deal.  Lilly later inked a three-year, $33MM extension with the Dodgers.
  • The Cubs also traded first baseman Derrek Lee last summer, saving $1.7MM in that deal with the Braves.  Lee told the Tribune's Dave van Dyck he would have returned "under the right terms," but added that Jim Hendry wouldn't have traded him if the GM had wanted him back.  Both Lee and his replacement Carlos Pena are off to slow starts this year.  Talking to Sullivan, Hendry rattled off several new Cubs who struggled in their first month.
  • Minor league signing Todd Wellemeyer, who is recovering from a hip injury, could be in the mix along with Doug Davis to fill in as the Cubs' fifth starter when the spot comes up on May 14th, reported Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times yesterday.  Meanwhile Tom Gorzelanny spun a gem against the Giants last night, dropping his ERA to 2.93 through five starts.  The Cubs have missed Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells, though both threw off a bullpen mound Monday and are "making good progress," according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.
  • One more note on the fifth starter situation: I'm hearing it's doubtful the Cubs pursue Kevin Millwood.
  • Cubs fans, MLBTR has you covered with Facebook and Twitter pages as well as an RSS feed.

AL Central Notes: Indians, Royals, Liriano

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The Indians weren't supposed to be sitting atop the AL Central standings a month into the season and the Twins weren't supposed to be in the cellar. Here are some links from the AL Central, including the latest reaction to a surprising April…

  • Everyone's wondering if the Indians are for real and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs provided an answer today: they aren't as good as they've seemed (19-8), but their offense should keep them in the race for much of the season, even if their pitching regresses, as expected.
  • Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com points out that the Indians now have a chance. "Nobody predicted they'd have it, and few seem to think they can sustain it. But with each win comes a little more belief."
  • MLB.com's Dick Kaegel explains that the Royals are taking advantage of technology to approach advance scouting in a new way.
  • Removing Francisco Liriano from the rotation may not be the worst decision the last-place Twins could make, writes Chris Cwik of FanGraphs.
  • White Sox GM Kenny Williams told MLB.com's Scott Merkin that he isn't looking to blame anyone for his team's 10-19 start.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Mejia, Bell

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May 2nd was a busy day for transactions 25 years ago, back in 1986. Current Red Sox manager Terry Francona signed with the Cubs and the Yankees signed Tommy John as a free agent. Here’s the latest from around the league…

  • Cuban outfielder Leonys Martin is working out at extended Spring Training in Arizona and his deal with the Rangers should be completed this week, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
  • The Mets announced that top pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia has a complete MCL tear of the right elbow. Though surgery has been recommended, Mejia will likely seek a second opinion before having an operation.
  • Heath Bell told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he helps his kids with their homework instead of reading trade rumors. Unfortunately for Bell, the rumors will really be heating up in July once school’s out. Of course trade rumors are nothing new for the Padres’ All-Star closer.

Trade Candidate: Wilson Betemit

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Inevitably, some teams will be interested in third base help this summer. The Giants, Cardinals and Marlins have question marks at the hot corner now and other teams will presumably be looking for help at third this June, July and August. It's just a question of which teams are interested and which players are available.

Wilson Betemit

As executives look around the league for alternatives to Michael Young ($45MM remaining on his contract) and Chone Figgins ($15.5MM remaining on his contract), their eyes may settle on a player who has a .305/.381/.504 line since the beginning of the 2010 season and earns just $1MM in 2011: Wilson Betemit of the Kansas City Royals.

A former top prospect turned journeyman, the 29-year-old Betemit is already playing for his fifth MLB team. He hit .297/.378/.511 with 13 homers in 315 plate appearances last year and has followed that up with a .333/.391/.480 showing so far in 2011. Betemit's numbers are flashy if not sustainable (.361 BABIP in '10, .429 BABIP in '11) and the available alternatives don't figure to be overwhelming.

Of course Royals GM Dayton Moore would have to have interest in trading Betemit for anything to happen. Now 15-13, the Royals are in second place in the AL Central behind only the surprising Cleveland Indians. If they continue winning more games than they lose, the Royals may not be interested in selling at all.

But if top third base prospect Mike Moustakas picks up the pace in Triple-A (his OPS now sits at .697) the Royals could decide to make Betemit available and, after they make a trade, promote Moustakas. Betemit is a free agent after 2011 and, unlike Moustakas, he isn't a long-term solution for K.C. Perhaps the Royals could flip him for a player who will contribute to their next great team.

Betemit's hot hitting, salary and versatility (he has MLB experience at short, first, second, left and right) suggest other teams are likely to call Moore later this summer. The Royals could stay hot, or Moustakas could stay cold, but it won't surprise many people if Betemit becomes trade bait within a few months.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Updates On Converted Relievers Now Starting

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Converting relievers to starters is potentially rewarding, but difficult to do, as the Rangers have shown in the past 13 months. Last year, they converted C.J. Wilson to the rotation and saw him blossom into a dependable starter who posted a 3.35 ERA, logged over 200 innings and started a World Series game. This year, they attempted to convert 2010 AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz to the rotation, but returned him to the bullpen before the season began. 

Here’s the latest on four pitchers who jumped from the ‘pen to the rotation this year, including one player who sat in the bullpen with Feliz last year and now pitches in the rotation along with Wilson. None of the pitchers below had more than two MLB starts to his name before the 2011 season and all of them were big league relievers last year:

  • Alexi Ogando – A former minor league outfielder, Ogando is accustomed to making major adjustments as a pro player. He has allowed 19 hits and 8 walks in 31 1/3 innings, striking out 21. His 2.30 ERA, 6.0 K/9 and average fastball velocity of 94.3 mph are impressive and he has even lowered his walk rate to 2.3 BB/9. But opponents are hitting just .165 against him on balls in play, an indication that he's not quite this good.
  • Phil Coke - Coke has allowed 27 hits and 12 walks in 30 innings this year and his strikeout rate has dropped from 7.4 K/9, where it stayed for 2009-10, to 5.1 K/9. Coke's 4.50 ERA is acceptable for a fifth starter if he can keep it there and his peripheral stats suggest he can.
  • Kyle McClellan - McClellan has a 3.23 ERA and a spotless 4-0 record despite peripheral stats (5.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 10.0 H/9, 4.32 FIP, 4.34 xFIP) that suggest the early returns are not sustainable. Even so, McClellan's 48% ground ball rate should allow him to remain the Cardinals' fifth starter, which is all they wanted in the first place.
  • Phil Humber - The third overall pick in the 2004 draft, Humber had not come close to putting it together in the majors until last year. Now a starter for the first time in his MLB career, Humber is pitching for his fifth organization in as many years. So far, the results have been tremendous. He has a 3.06 ERA through five starts with a 21K/8BB ratio. Opponents have been unlucky against Humber on balls in play, and only 5% of their fly balls have left the yard, so that 3.06 ERA may climb closer to 4.00. Still, Humber looks like one of the shrewdest waiver claims of the winter.

Draft Notes: D’Backs, Rays, Rendon, Bauer

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A year ago, everybody knew Bryce Harper was going to be the first overall pick in the draft. The year before that, Stephen Strasburg was the clearcut favorite to be the top selection. This time, there's no obvious candidate to go first overall. Here's the latest on the draft, with five weeks to go until the big day:

  • ESPN.com's Keith Law hears that D’Backs GM Kevin Towers is seeing Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Dylan Bundy, Trevor Bauer, Bubba Starling and Danny Hultzen in anticipation of the draft (Twitter link). Arizona selects third and seventh overall this year, so it's not surprising that Towers is scouting the top available players.
  • Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison told Joe Lemire of SI.com that he hadn't had any extra picks to work with before last year. A bevy of ranked free agents left the Rays for other teams last offseason, which means that Tampa Bay has 11 of the first 75 selections this June. "We're not going to get up all wound up and create something out of this, other than to stick with our process and evaluate our players properly," Harrison said.
  • Cole, high school shortstop Francisco Lindor, Hultzen and Rendon top the list Jon Heyman of SI.com creates with the help of a number of scouting directors.
  • Heyman hears that UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer is "shooting up the board" and could become a top-five pick, along with his rotation mate, Cole.
  • Check out my interview with Rendon from last week for his thoughts on the upcoming draft. Here's our series of Draft Prospect Q&As.

Brewers Acquire Jordan Brown

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The Brewers acquired minor leaguer Jordan Brown from the Indians for cash considerations, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer (on Twitter). The move creates roster space for returning Rule 5 pick Josh Rodriguez at Triple-A, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian (on Twitter).

Brown, a 27-year-old first baseman/outfielder, debuted with the Indians in 2010 and had spent the first month of the 2011 season at Triple-A. He has a .278/.373/.472 line at Columbus one month into his seventh minor league season (his fourth at Triple-A). The 2005 fourth round pick has a .305/.369/.471 line in 2523 minor league games. However, he struggled through 26 big league games last year, hitting .230/.272/.310 in 92 plate appearances.

Rosenthal On Mariners, Bautista, Machado, Rays

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The depth of the Indians’ rotation is their biggest question, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Now that Carlos Carrasco and Mitch Talbot are on the disabled list, the Tribe’s other options are being tested. Here’s Rosenthal’s latest from around the league:

  • The Mariners have the resources to bring in additional veterans when they want to, according to Rosenthal.
  • Jose Bautista, one of the top players in the game right now, is impressing just about everyone, including his own skipper. “His game awareness is as good as you’re going to get,” manager John Farrell told Rosenthal. “His ability in that regard takes him to another level."
  • A scout told Rosenthal that Manny Machado “looks like a man playing with little boys.” The Orioles selected the 18-year-old shortstop prospect with the third overall pick in last year’s draft and he has a 1.090 OPS in Class A.
  • The Rays may need to upgrade over Casey Kotchman at first base, but a definitive improvement may be difficult to find. The Brewers are likely to keep Prince Fielder, as Rosenthal points out.

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