Even with GM Frank Wren saying a significant trade isn't necessary this winter, MLB.com's Mark Bowman writes that scouts and executives from other Major League teams are still getting the sense that the Braves will move Jair Jurrjens or Martin Prado this offseason.
A trade wouldn't necessarily have to come at the Winter Meeting. As Bowman points out, Jurrjens may fetch a larger bounty once names like C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle are off the market. Interested clubs figure to take a longer look if they miss out on their top free agent targets, and the Braves will then have more leverage.
Wren continues to say that he doesn't need to make a trade for payroll purposes, but Bowman notes that moving either player would save the club in the neighborhood of $5MM. Matt Swartz's projections with MLBTR have Jurrjens at $5.1MM and Prado at $4.4MM.
Last night, Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reported that half of the teams in baseball were interested in Prado, and 8-10 teams had come calling on Jurrjens.
Chances are is that Jurrjens or Prado will be traded . The Braves are going to let Pastornicky start at SS with either Drew Sutton or Josh Wilson as the back up plan . So LF really seems like the option for the position of upgrade . I think Prado is going to bounce back and have a more Prado like year . He is being projected at .289 , .330 , and around .415+ , which is likely . We could keep him in LF , but seems as though he would be more valuable to another team at 3rd or 2nd . Jurrjens I think will also rebound and pitch 175 innings+ , have around 15+ wins and an ERA around the 3.25 mark . The Braves don’t have to trade either one . But , if the Braves can get someone with a little more pop to play left and maybe a few prospects in deal for one or the other , then great . We will need a 3rd base replacement for Chipper and possibly a replacement for Bourn after this next year . I just don’t see the Braves signing Bourn . Scott Boras client .
There are a few teams out there that we could match up with . I totally trust Wren will only deal if it’s a definite upgrade for the team .
The other issue is you burn off one year of someone’s ML clock in AAA who is likely better quality-wise then JJ given all the A- to A+ pitching prospects the Braves have. Trading him for an improvement makes sense for a comparative advantage standpoint.
Standing pat on Prado makes more sense.
MLB clock doesn’t run when you’re in AAA.
what are the odds both are dealt?
My personal preference is to see JJ get traded and Prado held onto and moved back to super utility. Prado could be swapped out between 3B and LF primarily to give Chip days off, he wouldn’t be loosing too many ABs this way.
JJ should get at least the return of a SS or MIF to compliment Pastornicky and a young OFer that preferrably can spell Prado or Bourn and take over just in case MB isn’t resigned. Not resigning Bourn would be a huge folly in itself though if you ask me.
I’m not sure that not re-signing Bourn would be “a huge folly” when you take into account he will be 30 when his contract expires and Scott Boras is his agent. If he could be re-signed at say 3/$24M then I say sign away, but I am guessing that is significantly lower than Boras will be asking for.
I’d go as high as 4/40, and think he’d have a tough time getting that elsewhere.
You guys are crazy, he is a Boras client with an extremely rare and valuable skillset (albeit undervalued by the market) and has (by WAR) been the best CF in MLB the past 2 years, and seeing guys who don’t hit a lot of hr’s (Crawford/Reyes) etc getting huge contracts I wouldn’t put it passed boras to get him a deal with an annual salary around 14 million
In a perfect world:
-Chipper retires after ’12 (And a WS ;) )
-Terdo is ready to step in at 3B (or)
-We trade for a MLB ready 3B this year or next (Juan Francisco?)
-We pay Bourn what he’s worth
I’m not sure Terdo has the hands for third, the reports are his hands are rough and range isn’t spectacular lol, so he is probably destined for LF IF and this is a big IF, he can prove he can hitter at higher levels
3B is one the of the slimmest positions right now (Aramis Ramirez is asking for quite a bit and NYM won’t the world for David Wright, if they’d move him…which they won’t without Reyes now).
And Austinhb is right, with Boras as his agent, he’s going to push the gold gloves, SBs and WAR hard, which means more than Uggla, in my opinion, and we’re not going to be able to do it. I’m saying it’s not the worst thing, but the chances we re-sign Bourn, in my opinion, are about 30-70. Even if we don’t, we should get some nice draft picks as compensation when he’s offered arbitration and declines.
Not sure how that makes me crazy, I said 3/$24 would be significantly lower than what Boras would be asking for. It wouldn’t surprise me to see some team sign Bourn to a 4 year deal worth $50M or so, I’m just saying I wouldn’t want to see the Braves do it. He will be on the wrong side of 30 and his “extremely rare and valuable skillset (sic)” is based completely on his speed, which (if history is any indication) will start to decline sooner than later.
I love the guy and I’m happy he is a Brave right now, but I predict he will be an albatross to some team at the end of his next contract.
I’d go as high as 4/40, and think he’d have a tough time getting that elsewhere.
I’m not sure that not re-signing Bourn would be “a huge folly” when you take into account he will be 30 when his contract expires and Scott Boras is his agent. If he could be re-signed at say 3/$24M then I say sign away, but I am guessing that is significantly lower than Boras will be asking for.
I think that the obvious trade would be to see if we can acquire Carlos Quentin for Jurrjens. The Sox have inquired on our pitching in the past (primarily Beachy), and if we could get Quentin, we could move Prado back into the super-utility role.
NO NO NO NO NO. quentin is good but he gets hurt too much.
And Jurrjens doesn’t? I do understand the hesitancy behind not wanting to trade for a guy who is probably only going to give you 120-135 games per year, however, keeping Prado in a super-utility role helps ease that problem, along with having Matt Diaz on the bench to step in when need be.
and Jair?
please keep prado. he is too much of a key player to trade. but JJ is expendable. get what we can get for him and id be happy. ive never been impressed by JJ any ways this past season even with what he did in the first half of the season.
Pedro Alvarez anyone?
JJ for Yonder Alonso makes perfect sense. The Reds had him playing left field last season.
JJ/spec to reds for Stubbs/Francisco/spec
Seem like a good idea. Fills the needs of both teams. Reds get a #2 starter and Braves get a young outfielder with great defense, and a third baseman with tremendous power.