Baseball America’s Midseason Prospect List
Baseball America released its midseason list of the top 50 prospects in the game yesterday and Nationals outfield prospect Bryce Harper and Mike Trout, the recently-promoted Angels outfielder, remain the most highly-regarded prospects in baseball. Rays left-hander Matt Moore, Braves right-hander Julio Teheran and Orioles shortstop prospect Manny Machado round out the publication's top five (click here for a more detailed subscriber-only list).
The Rangers had four prospects in the top 50, more than any other club. The Rays, Yankees, Blue Jays, Royals, Braves, Diamondbacks and Dodgers all had three players on BA's list. Five teams didn't have a prospect on the list: the White Sox, Athletics, Marlins, Brewers and Astros.
Rockies Sign Supplemental Pick Story
July 8th: Story signed for a bonus of $915K, which is above the recommended bonus of $764K, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter).
June 30th: The Rockies have agreed to terms with supplemental first round pick Trevor Story, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter). Colorado selected the high school shortstop with the 45th overall pick earlier this month.
Baseball America ranked Story 40th among eligible prospects before the draft, calling him a quality, surefire shortstop. Some scouts believe he could be close to a five-tool player because he can reach 92 mph with his fastball and has good range, pop in his bat, speed and baserunning skills. He had committed to Louisiana State. Click here for a complete list of top draft picks to sign.
Service Time Breakdown For Mike Trout
It’s common for teams to time the debut of a top prospect carefully in order to delay his free agency or prevent him from going to arbitration an extra time. But such precise timing isn’t always possible, especially for short-handed teams in the middle of a pennant race.
The Angels, who trail the Rangers by one game in the American League West, lost no time in calling up top prospect Mike Trout to replace injured center fielder Peter Bourjos and the move doesn’t appear to have anything to do with service time.
Trout, 19, entered the season as baseball’s second-best prospect (behind only Bryce Harper), according to Baseball America. So far this year, the 2009 first round pick has solidified his place as one of the game's elite prospects. He has a .324/.415/.534 line with nine homers and 28 stolen bases in his first season at Double-A.
There’s definitely a chance that Trout returns to the minors this season (he could be demoted when Bourjos’ hamstring heals), or later on in his pro career, like so many other prospects. But let’s take a look at what lies ahead for the 19-year-old if he never returns to the minors. It’s admittedly a lot to ask of a player who was in high school a couple years ago, but Trout is no ordinary prospect.
He can pick up as many as 83 days of service time this year, which would put him on track for arbitration eligibility after the 2014 season and free agency after the 2017 season (it’s the same timetable that he would have been on if the Angels had called him up this September or added him to their Opening Day roster in 2012). In other words, there’s a chance Trout will hit free agency just a few months after his 26th birthday.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Rosenthal On Braves, Yankees, Royals
Though some teams are still in the process of deciding whether to buy, sell or hold, others are developing a clear sense of what moves they intend to make this month. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has the latest on the trade deadline, which is just over three weeks away…
- The Braves, who have limited payroll flexibility, aren’t sure if they’re going to upgrade their offense, but they could pursue a right-handed hitting outfielder. Atlanta could probably afford an outfielder like Ryan Ludwick, Josh Willingham or Michael Cuddyer if they also obtained cash to cover the player’s salary (though that would likely mean giving up better prospects in the trade).
- The Phillies may end up pursuing some of the same right-handed hitters as the Braves. Philadelphia is also exploring trades for relievers now that Jose Contreras, Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson are on the disabled list.
- The Yankees would like to acquire a top-of-the-rotation lefty, but they’re more likely to add a left-handed reliever. New York’s preference is for a southpaw who can retire right-handed hitters as well as lefties. The Yankees are targeting a number of left-handers, including Sean Burnett of the Nationals, who is not yet available.
- The Royals will listen to offers for all of their players, but rival executives tell Rosenthal that Joakim Soria is likely staying put, since the asking price for him is high.
- Yankees catcher Jesus Montero has limited appeal to the Royals, since they doubt he’ll be able to stay behind the plate long-term.
- The Royals expect to compete from 2012-14.
Outrighted To Triple-A: Jose Lopez
Here's where we'll keep track of the latest players to get outrighted to the minors…
- The Marlins outrighted Jose Lopez to Triple-A, according to MLB.com's transactions page. They had designated the infielder for assignment over the weekend, less than a month after signing him. The 27-year-old has a .188/.219/.260 line this year in 160 plate appearances for the Marlins and their expansion cousins, the Rockies.
D’Backs Hope To Add Established Reliever
The Diamondbacks are exploring the trade market for an established reliever who can handle a late-inning role, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. But CEO Derrick Hall says he’s not interested in dealing top prospects for a quick fix.
"I think fans always get a little impatient, and I don't blame them," Hall said. "They want to win. They can taste it and they can smell it. But we want to have some sustainability, and in order to do so, we've got to keep those guys."
GM Kevin Towers has scouts watching the organization’s minor league affiliates to assess prospects' ability to make an impact in the Major Leagues. The goal is to accurately evaluate Arizona’s minor leaguers and ensure that the best ones stay put.
“We don't want to move the wrong prospect, someone that has a lot of upside and we think could be a core player for us in the future," Towers said.
Tyler Skaggs, Jarrod Parker and Pat Corbin are likely some of the prospects that are off the trade market this summer, as Piecoro points out. The Diamondbacks will be able to add payroll, which could prevent them from having to surrender top young talent.
Giants Will Consider Rental Players
Brian Sabean isn’t ruling out rental players if it means making the Giants better. The GM told Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that he’s not going to limit himself to trade targets that are under team control after 2011.
"No, you have to be more open-minded because of the situation we're in," Sabean said. "But you'd have to be pretty damn sure that, quote (unquote), rental player was a difference maker."
Sabean and his staff have had conversations with about half of the teams in baseball to set the groundwork for possible moves. The responses from other clubs have been “really slow or guarded” so far, according to Sabean, who suggested there may not be “actual premium choices” available this summer. Sabean said he’d be reluctant to part with starting pitching in trades, but didn’t completely rule it out.
The Giants, who lead the NL West with a 50-39 record, have a franchise record $120MM payroll and ownership hasn’t yet approved major payroll increases. Carlos Beltran, who earns $18.5MM and hits free agency this fall, is the type of rental player who could appeal to the Giants, though taking on his salary would likely require approval from ownership.
Extension Candidate: Ian Kennedy
It's not often that we see a trade where both sides end up happy, so a three-team trade where all parties end up pleased with their end are rare. A year and a half later, I think it's safe to the say the Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Yankees are all happy with their haul from last winter's Curtis Granderson–Max Scherzer–Ian Kennedy–Edwin Jackson (plus others) swap. Many questioned Arizona's motives behind the trade, but as Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs recently explained, it's the deal that keeps on giving for them.
Kennedy was everything the Diamondbacks could have hoped for in the first year after the trade, giving them 32 starts and 194 innings with a 3.80 ERA last season. His peripheral stats were strong as well: 7.79 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 4.33 FIP, and 2.4 wins above replacement. Kennedy's second year in Arizona has gone even better; his 3.38 ERA is supported by a 3.50 FIP, and he's maintained a similar strikeout rate (7.58 K/9) while lowering his walk rate (2.35 BB/9) and increasing his ground ball rate (40.5%). After just 112 1/3 innings, he's already provided his team 2.3 wins above replacement.
Let's compare Kennedy to one of his peers at a similar point of their career…
Romero signed a five-year contract worth $30.1MM last August, a deal that also includes an option for a sixth year. It bought out his last remaining pre-arbitration year, all three arbitration-eligible seasons, and at least one free agent season. The Diamondbacks have Kennedy under team control through 2015, and he won't be eligible for arbitration until the 2013 season. A five-year deal would buy out the same years of his career as Romero's deal, and it would still allow Kennedy to hit the free agent market at age 31, young enough to land one more big contract.
It's worth mentioning that both Yovani Gallardo and Jon Lester received similar five-year contracts worth $30MM or so, the kind of deal Kennedy has set himself up for when you adjust for inflation. There's no pressure on the D'Backs to sign their young right-hander to a long-term deal now, but doing so could save the team some major bucks down the line.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Quick Hits: Mariners, Giants, Yankees, Orioles
Our condolensces go out to the friends and family of Dick Williams. The long-time player and manager passed away at age 82 today.
- Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik told MLB.com's Greg Johns that "we're wide open." He added that they've "had dialogue" about potential trades, but haven't found a match and won't make a deal until they find one that makes sense.
- MLB.com's Adam Berry notes that Mike Fontenot is coming off the disabled list soon, which could mean the end of Bill Hall's time with the Giants.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Yankees have a scout at Nationals Park tonight, presumably to see Sean Burnett. Earlier today we heard that they've discussed the lefty internally.
- Meanwhile, ESPN's Buster Olney hears that the Yankees are doing normal pre-deadline due diligence and are discussing many players (on Twitter), but they are not close to any deals.
- Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail told Steve Melewski of MASNSports.com that he'd like scouting director Joe Jordan to return next year. The contracts of both men are up after the season.
- The Mets have signed seventh rounder Cole Frenzel, tweets Adam Rubin of ESPN New York. The first baseman from Arizona was the 222nd overall pick.
- Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears that the Cardinals are expected to finalize a deal with third rounder C.J. McElroy (Twitter link). "Just details" are left to be finalized. MLB's slot recommendation for the 109th overall pick is approximately $284K.
Mets “Very Unlikely” To Trade Reyes In Season
Amid reports of "secret" extension talks, Mets GM Sandy Alderson told Adam Rubin of ESPN New York that they are "very unlikely" to trade Jose Reyes in season (Twitter link). He said that was true even before the shortstop was placed on the disabled list with a hamstring injury.
Over the weekend we heard there was "almost no way" the Mets would deal their star, and Alderson's statement reinforces that position. The team may also be considering a substantial contract offer when Reyes hits free agency after the season. Either way, other clubs don't figure to stop calling since Alderson could just be posturing.