Latest On Rotation Battles
Rotation battles are being decided left and right. Here's the latest.
- Scott Baker will serve as the Twins' fifth starter and Kevin Slowey will work out of the bullpen, tweets Kelsie Smith of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Slowey was highlighted by MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith as a potentially available starter, and the Twins appear willing to listen. With Kyle Gibson on the horizon, can the Twins spare the depth?
- Barry Enright made the Diamondbacks' rotation, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. Assuming Joe Saunders makes the cut, that leaves Armando Galarraga and Aaron Heilman duking it out for the right to fill in for Zach Duke. If Heilman sneaks into the rotation, the D'Backs have to decide by March 28th whether they want to pay Galarraga $2.3MM as their long man. If they cut him by then they'd only owe him about $569K.
- Bartolo Colon went six strong innings for the Yankees last night, and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports figures this means he'll make the team somehow. Colon and Freddy Garcia have opt-out dates of March 31st and March 29th, respectively. Ivan Nova probably has the fourth starter job, leaving Colon, Garcia, and Sergio Mitre for two spots.
- The Cubs are meeting today and could decide on their fifth starter, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. If Andrew Cashner gets the nod, I can see the Cubs trying to dump Carlos Silva.
Average Free Agent Prices By Position
131 free agents signed Major League deals this offseason, ranging from Scott Olsen at $550K to Carl Crawford at $142MM. The group was guaranteed just over $1.3 billion for 203 contract years, for an average of $6.4MM per year. The average player scored a contract worth $9.93MM. These numbers do not include Ted Lilly, Brandon Inge, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, who were not signed on the open market.
- Right field: $10.975MM per year ($153.65MM over 14 years). This group includes seven players, with Jayson Werth pulling up the numbers.
- Closer: $10MM per year ($40MM over four years). I've included only Mariano Rivera and J.J. Putz here, as the other relievers were not signed as certain closers.
- Left field: $9.775MM per year ($156.4MM over 16 years). This group of ten is greatly skewed by Carl Crawford.
- Third base: $9.4MM per year ($103.45MM over 11 years). Adrian Beltre makes up almost all of this.
- Designated hitter: $9.16MM per year ($128.25MM over 14 years). Adam Dunn and Victor Martinez were compensated abnormally well for players who will mostly be serving at DH.
- Shortstop: $8.19MM per year ($73.75MM over 9 years). Derek Jeter is the headliner.
- Starting pitcher: $7.42MM per year ($229.975MM over 31 years). Cliff Lee leads the group of 22 pitchers I designated as starters. Aside from him, starters were paid $4.2MM per year.
- First base: $7.38MM per year ($110.65MM over 15 years). Paul Konerko leads.
- Second base: $4.84MM per year ($38.75MM over 8 years). Juan Uribe received the biggest deal.
- Right-handed reliever: $3.66MM per year ($146.28MM over 40 years). Rafael Soriano tops the chart.
- Left-handed reliever: $3.06MM per year ($58.05MM over 19 years). Scott Downs got the biggest deal.
- Catcher: $3.04MM per year ($57.675MM over 19 years). John Buck's surprising deal tops the list.
- Center field: $1.14MM per year ($3.425MM over 3 years). Center fielders were tough to come by this winter, as Rick Ankiel, Melky Cabrera, and Tony Gwynn Jr. make up this group.
- Click here to download a spreadsheet with all the data.
Best Arb Eligible Position Players Without Extensions
These days, most of the best arbitration eligible players are signed to multiyear deals. So far this offseason 25 players signed extensions covering at least one arbitration year, with more to come in April. It's rare to see a star player make it all the way to free agency going year-to-year. Many don't even make it to arbitration. With that in mind, let's take a look at the best arbitration eligible position players currently on one-year deals. I've included the agencies from our database.
Schierholtz, Ishikawa On The Bubble For Giants
The Giants have a pair of out of options position players on the bubble in Nate Schierholtz and Travis Ishikawa. According to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News, "Schierholtz could be the easiest and most likely to be dealt. Perhaps soon."
Schierholtz, a right fielder, is trying to break into an outfield that already features more expensive players such as Cody Ross, Andres Torres, Pat Burrell, Mark DeRosa, and perhaps Aaron Rowand. And don't forget top prospect Brandon Belt, who could force Aubrey Huff to left field or play there himself. Just for good measure, Ishikawa is playing a little outfield this spring.
The 27-year-old Schierholtz has failed to produce in 758 scattered big league plate appearances. He has, at least, shown the ability to hit for average, power, and a strong contact rate in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Going back to the Baseball America 2008 Handbook, Schierholtz "plays a strong right field and has an above-average, accurate arm." He would have been a more interesting player for the Royals to try in right field than Jeff Francoeur, and could make sense for the Phillies currently.
Trading Rowand would alleviate the Giants' outfield logjam slightly, but Baggarly says there's nothing cooking on that front. Rowand is a release candidate in my mind, unless there's a team willing to pick up a couple million bucks of the $24MM owed to him for 2011-12.
Baggarly notes that both Schierholtz and Ishikawa could be on the outs if Belt makes the team. On Friday, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote that the situations of Rowand, Ishikawa, and Schierholtz will not be big factors in the Belt decision. Belt's service time might be a consideration, not that the team would admit that publicly. If the Giants can survive the season's first nine games without Belt, they can delay his free agency by a year.
American League Links: Orioles, Francisco, Indians
Links from the Junior Circuit, as Bartolo Colon comes closer to earning a spot in the Yankees' rotation…
- Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun previews the Orioles' Opening Day roster and checks in on some 2010 Orioles who have since joined other organizations.
- Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas asks whether the Rangers made a mistake when they traded Frank Francisco for Mike Napoli. Rangers GM Jon Daniels says Francisco was "very good" out of the bullpen when healthy, but notes that Francisco isn't completely healthy at the moment. The right-hander is set to visit Dr. James Andrews.
- The Indians are almost ready to announce their starting rotation, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
- Meanwhile, Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer says the Indians didn't draft well enough from 2004-07.
Braves Still Hoping To Deal Kawakami
The Braves are still hoping that Kenshin Kawakami draws interest from another team that's willing to take on a considerable portion of the $6.67MM he’ll earn in 2011, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Kawakami lost his rotation spot last June after losing his first nine decisions.
He appeared in just three big league games after June 26th, partly because the Braves sent him to the minor leagues for five starts. The 35-year-old started today, but is not competing with Rodrigo Lopez, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor for Atlanta's open rotation spot. Instead, the Braves will trade Kawakami or return him to the minor leagues.
Japanese teams were willing to take on more than half of Kawakami's salary as recently as last month and some MLB teams, including the Brewers, could use rotation depth. I examined some options for Milwaukee earlier tonight.
Potentially Available Starters
As two of their top starters look to recover from Spring Training setbacks, the Brewers are considering the idea of acquiring a starting pitcher through a trade or waiver claim. However, they say they're more likely to call on an internal candidate, like Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada, Eulogio de la Cruz or Tim Dillard.
It's easy to see why the Brewers aren't eager to spend on a pitcher like Doug Davis or Kevin Millwood. Zack Greinke probably won't be out for long and Shaun Marcum's shoulder stiffness could disappear soon, so investing millions in a pitcher who won't have a job in a few weeks wouldn't make much sense.
But GM Doug Melvin is eyeing pitchers on other teams and surely other GMs are doing the same. Here's a preliminary, speculative list of starting pitchers who could be available this spring:
- Kevin Slowey – The Twins are willing to listen to offers for Slowey. If they trade him, Scott Baker could take the fifth starter's job in Minnesota.
- Glen Perkins* – Perkins is battling for a spot in the Twins' pen, though he started 26 games in 2008 and 17 the following year. Like many Twins pitchers, Perkins limits walks (career 2.3 BB/9) without striking many out (career 4.7 K/9).
- Bartolo Colon/Freddy Garcia – Both non-roster invitees have impressed this spring, so they could end up in the Yankees' rotation, rather than on the trading block.
- Carlos Silva - It has been a frustrating spring for Silva, who could see Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner win the two open spots at the back of the Cubs' rotation. But Silva posted a 4.22 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 113 innings last year, so he could have appeal despite his his $11.5MM salary. Perhaps Todd Wellemeyer could also become trade bait.
- Rodrigo Lopez - Lopez may see Brandon Beachy or Mike Minor win the Braves' last rotation spot, in which case he'd be out of a job. Someone would figure to inquire on Lopez, who logged 200 innings in 2010. Kenshin Kawakami also remains available, but he'll earn $6.67MM in 2011.
- Joe Blanton – Blanton's availability has been well-documented. One obstacle for potentially interested teams: the right-hander's $8.5MM salary in 2011 and 2012.
- John Maine - Esmil Rogers could win the fifth spot in the Rockies' rotation over Maine, who has a June 1st opt-out clause.
- Jo-Jo Reyes* – As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained earlier in the month, the out-of-options left-hander is a possible trade candidate.
- Ryan Rowland-Smith* – The former starter is battling for a spot in the Astros' bullpen now that Nelson Figueroa has won their final rotation spot.
- Jeff Suppan – The Brewers scored six runs in one inning against their former teammate last week. It's pretty difficult to imagine a deal here.
- Under other circumstances, we could consider Tim Wakefield a trade candidate, since he won't necessarily make the Red Sox. It's not easy to imagine Boston trading the knuckleballer, though.
*denotes out of options player.
Brewers Considering External Rotation Candidates
Though the Brewers will likely call on one of their current pitchers to fill out their rotation, the team is monitoring arms that could become available on waivers or through trades, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. GM Doug Melvin says he will “probably” fill the rotation from within.
"It's very difficult to make trades at this time of year because other teams are trying to preserve their depth,” Melvin said. “We're making a lot of calls."
Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, Melvin's two primary offseason acquisitions have had setbacks this spring. Greinke will miss at least one start with a cracked rib and Marcum has a stiff shoulder. The Brewers appeared to have depth early in the spring, but Mark Rogers (shoulder) and Manny Parra (back) have dealt with injuries as well.
The Brewers are not interested in Doug Davis, Oliver Perez or Kevin Millwood, according to McCalvy. Milwaukee has a full 40-man roster, which means they would have to remove a player from the roster to create space for a new addition. Internal rotation candidates Wily Peralta, Marco Estrada, Eulogio de la Cruz and Tim Dillard are among those on the roster.
Yankees Have Some Interest In Oliver Perez
Here's one for the back pages and talk show hosts. The Yankees have discussed Oliver Perez as a potential cheap addition, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter). However, GM Brian Cashman doesn't seem enthused about the 29-year-old left-hander.
The Mets released Perez earlier today, eating his $12MM contract and ending his inconsistent five-year stint in New York. If the Yankees sign Perez, they would be responsible for paying him the MLB minimum salary and their crosstown rivals would be responsible for about $11.6MM.
Longtime Met Pedro Feliciano (upper arm) and Boone Logan (back) have dealt with soreness this spring, but both lefties made progress in recent days. It seems likely that Cashman was simply being diligent when he considered Perez.
The Elite Shortstop Shortage
Like it or not, the best players in the game change teams regularly in today’s game. Take Cliff Lee, who has been traded three times in the past two years. Adrian Beltre, who joined Lee on the free agent market this winter, will play with his third team in as many years in 2011.
Some players, like Derek Jeter and Todd Helton, seem destined to remain with the organizations that drafted and developed them, but that’s the exception these days, when players at just about every position become available through trades and free agency each winter.
The one exception of the offseason was shortstop. A handful of solid everyday shortstops changed teams, but none of them could be considered elite players. Only one shortstop who switched teams this winter – Juan Uribe – placed among the top 100 position players in WAR last year (3.2).
Other shortstops, including Jhonny Peralta, Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria, Alcides Escobar, Jason Bartlett and J.J. Hardy, changed hands through free agency and trades. The group includes a number of regulars with some impressive career accomplishments, but none of them performed at an elite level in 2010.
(Jeter, though technically a free agent, did not play at an elite level last year and was never going to sign with a team other than the Yankees even if he had.)
In case it wasn’t already challenging enough to find top shortstops, some of the best ones around signed extensions that should keep them off of the market. Troy Tulowitzki signed a surprising nine-figure extension that will keep him in Denver for the next decade. Later in the offseason, the White Sox locked Alexei Ramirez up to a four-year deal, delaying his free agency by at least two years.
Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers signed Stephen Drew (pictured) to a two-year extension after a year in which he posted an .810 OPS and a second consecutive above-average UZR/150 (10.0 in ’10). However, Drew’s deal is unlike the others in that it won’t necessarily postpone his free agency.
If the D’Backs fall out of contention early again this summer, teams could inquire on Drew. Similarly, Jose Reyes could become available within a few months, so the market for shortstops could finally develop by the trade deadline. Given that elite shortstops are one of baseball’s most valuable, elusive commodities, expect the D’Backs and Mets to ask for multiple quality players in return for Drew and Reyes if they make them available.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

