The Red Sox maintain interest in Matt Garza, but they're officially out on Ryan Dempster, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports (on Twitter). The Cubs are working to trade Dempster, the MLB leader in ERA.
Stark's colleague, Buster Olney, reported today that the Red Sox are more interested in adding long-term pieces than short-term rentals this summer. Dempster, who earns $14MM this year, will hit free agency following the 2012 season, while Garza, who earns $9.5MM this year, will remain under team control through 2013 as an arbitration eligible player.
The Dodgers, Tigers, Braves, Red Sox and Nationals have all expressed interest in Dempster, who can veto any trade. The Royals, Tigers, Dodgers, Orioles and Rangers have all been linked to Garza this summer.
Why would any team ever be “officially out” of trade talks with regard to anyone, ever? It makes no sense. If the right deal comes, Boston will take Dempster.
Obviously, but the Cubs aren’t going to dump Dempster from nothing. The Sox are “officially out” on Dempster given the current asking price. On another note, welcome to the Dodgers, Ryan Dempster
Now Garza…that’s a name I’m willing for the Sox to drop a top prospect for.
What? No. Why? Garza’s a #3 that they want an Ace package for.
Boston just moved Franklin Morales back to the pen and he had been arguably the best SP on the team over the last month. Why would they have wanted to have taken a chance on bringing in someone with -0- AL East experience and then given up possible prospects up as well? It never made any sense and several of us made that plain from day one with a few writers, with nothing better to do were writing about that nonsense.
Garza? AL East experience. Possible.. If the price is right, but not a necessity The LH Morales (remind you) threw 100 pitch range 5 times and in all but 1 start (NYY) was close to unhittable..
The Sox desperately need an ace, they are playing with basically 5 #4 starters right now. One could argue that Garza is not an ace, but for the Red Sox an ace is a necessity right now. Who do you give the ball to to win the one game playoff?
Buchholz, Doubront, and Cook (and Morales) have all been pitching better than “number 4’s”. I’ll concede the fact that we don’t have an ace, but it’s more like some kind of 2-3-3-4-5 thing going on
I would give it to Beckett, even though he is having an ok season..he has a good track record but maybe Lester
You can’t count on having the team’s “ace” available for the WC game, because it seems quite likely that the 2nd WC may be in play until the final game. Therefore, those teams won’t be able to tweak their rotations for the playoffs, and they’ll just have to use whomever’s available for the WC game.
Garza isn’t any better than anyone in Boston’s rotation, and he doesn’t have the track record of success that Beckett and Lester do. He’s nothing more than a #3 starter. They don’t need him.
Silver, I think that it’s possible that Morales may have a future in the rotation with the Sox. But for better or worse, the Sox have a logjam in the rotation at the moment, and they’re just not going to move Beckett or Lester to the pen to make room for Morales in the rotation. And why would they move Cook to the pen where he has little to no experience, and he’s been very good since returning from the DL as well. I can see Doubront running out of gas, or running up against an IP limit at some point, since he’s never been a full time starter before. And then Morales could step into Felix’ rotation spot.
As for Garza, yes, he’s interesting, but he presents the same problem that Morales did. Who gets booted from the rotation to make room for him? The Sox problem is that the bottom of the rotation is pitching like it’s the top of the rotation and vice-versa. So if you’re trying to make the rotation better, who do you move? The bottom of the rotation guys who are pitching very well, or the top of the rotation veterans who aren’t.
Doubront was warming up in the BP during one of the Rays games and figured he would be pulled from the rotation. He is already at 100IP and it is getting close to his high for IP at the mid season mark. Moving him to the dual role seemed a fit, though he has been decent still thru 80-90 pitches thus far.
Morales on the other hand has been very good thru 90+ even. He is still throwing 95-96 and having no problems with any of his secondary stuff in 4 of his 5 starts. It reeks of trying to keep Cook in the rotation for the time being to me.
Agreed with the entire rotation all being mediocre, with the sole exception being Bucholz, who for the most part has stepped it up since early June. Buch and Morales were the 2 the team could count on and now only 1 is left. Doubrant has most of the time been steady, but uses too many pitches and is done after 5-6IP tops. Lester? They just have to keep letting him go at it. There is something wrong where he is having that 1 bad inning. It’s not the town situation and I don’t buy into that at all. Maybe some nagging injury, a mechanical flaw.. Something.
Beckett is dealing with a transitional problem. He isn’t that 95mph guy and barely a 92-3 guy. He’s got to hit his corners now to work. That cutter and curve need to be his staples and he had better focus on them more often than he has. Seems it always takes him 1 rotten inning to learn that as it does the 1st inning of every game for some reason.
You know? I am looking forward to Lackey coming back. He knows his limitations and has always pitched up well to them. Am fully expecting a solid season out of him in 2013. Not a 20W season of course, but he will be decent.
I just hope at least 1 of Beckett/Lester figures out their issues before mid August. They need 1 to get it down, along with Bucholz continuing his pace.
One other thing.. The innings thing with Doubrant could be to plan on letting him go another half dozen starts and then switch back to Morales. That way keep 2 LH in the rotation.. That thought had crossed my mind as well..
As bad as the rotation has been? Can we imagine how bad the staff overall would be if the Pen hadn’t been this outstanding and deep??
Thanks for the long thoughtful reply, JS.
One thing you didn’t address is who would Garza replace in the rotation? Sure, I suppose that Doubront could be moved to the pen, simply because of the IP thing. But I wouldn’t touch Cook who has been solid since returning from the DL.
I hope that Lackey doesn’t pitch for the big club until next season. The team already has a glut of starting pitching. And let’s not forget that DiceK’s only on the 15 day DL and will probably return at some point.
It seems that the Sox will need to address this glut of starting pitching in the offseason. DiceK seems certain to be gone. But, barring any trades, they’ll have Lester, Beckett, Bucholz, and Lackey back, not to mention Doubront, and Morales and Cook, I suppose.
Agreed on Matsuzaka.. Hopefully he gets buried on the 60 day DL very soon and his Sox career finished..
Cook has been a pleasant surprise huh? What is it? 30IP and a total of 2bb and 2k? THAT is putting the ball into play and mostly for the positive so far.
Yeah, Cook has been a pleasant surprise. But maybe he shouldn’t have been that big a surprise. After all, wasn’t this guy an all-star pitcher not that long ago before getting hit with some injuries? If he’s fully healthy again, maybe Cook can return to his all-star form. And I don’t mind the idea of a sinkerballer in the rotation who can consistently eat innings. It adds a little variety to the rotation, like having a couple of lefties in the rotation.
I could see them giving Doubront through the end of the month (2-3 more starts) and then switching him and Morales. Morales would be fresh for the stretch run, and it would still allow them to keep Doubront’s innings down.
ya if the price is right, i will take Garza…he is a great pitcher…..
Garza is better than most options that the Red Sox have internally, who is ready
He’s not as good as Lester or Beckett, Buchholz is even debatable, and guys like Doubront and Morales have been pitching as well (or better) this year. He would possibly be an upgrade over the back half of the rotation (and would be a lot more of a “sure thing” than Doubront or Morales), but not enough of an upgrade to make it worth the cost to acquire him.
Someones drinking the Red Sox kool aid…lol @ Bucholz is even debatable…Do you really tell yourself and believe that?
put it this way: i wouldn’t trade much for either one
Garza is a #3, no more no less; Buchholz has the potential to be a #2, but could just as easily be a #4-#5 (he hasn’t pitched enough, or been consistent enough, to say for sure exactly what he is), so it’s debatable which one will be the better pitcher going forward (it depends on who the “real” Buchholz is).
Time to ship Bard to the Jays for Escobar.
Are you sure the Red Sox are giving up on Bard, guy reminds me of Brandon Morrow, we all know how that worked out for the Mariners.
Unfortunately for Jays fans that trade is a wash until Morrow comes back from injury.
According to B-Ref, Morrow has given the Jays 4.6 WAR over his career, League has given the Mariners 1.6.
Morrow is also 2 years younger and locked up for 2.5 more years. League is a FA at seasons end.
Makes sense, red sox have had bad break with injuries this year, if you don’t make the playoffs at least you have Garza for another season, reload and start fresh next year with a guy who has a history of success in the AL East. GM Cherington is doing a great job so far…
Adding Garza to the Sox rotation wouldn’t be a terrible idea, but there’s no way he’s enough of an upgrade (or good enough in general) to be worth what the Cubs are going to want for him.
The price for players tends to come down as talks get closer to completion. And for good reason…why should the Cubs start at the price they’re willing to pay when they might be able to get a bit more?
It’s not going to come down enough for me to be comfortable with what the Red Sox would have to give up for him.
As long as the price is right, I dont see Ben trying to do something too over the top.
There was a big chance that Theo would get a lot from Boston for Dempster without it paying dividends for the Sox. Now that Garza is the target, Boston should do whatever it takes to get him. He’s young, has AL East experince, and is a solid playoff pitcher as well. The Sox love players with facial hair. Garza and his goatee would fit right in!
Theo will definitely get the Cubs a nice amount of prospects since he knows the Sox system so well. I can’t believe Theo is talking to Boston! Should be fun to see it unfold.
If they like facial hair they should target the entire giants bullpen and make a run for brian wilson in the offseason.
“The Sox love players with facial hair. Garza and his goatee would fit right in!”
See also: Hermanson, Dustin.
And Damon, Johnny
Seems like all Jud does is talk to Boston… Since well… Theo isn’t the GM and all…. Either way, the Cubs and Bos talked for months upon months for Theo compensation, then they worked the deal sending Marlon Byrd to Boston, they have been rumored to have other discussions early on, and now Dempster and Garza conversations. I think the Cubs phone direct all calls to Boston, Ma…
Boston folks, what’s a fair package (assuming you may overpay a bit do to 1.5 years control, and the probably lack of other #2-#3 type arms)?
Is a package of Barnes/Swihart/Owens/Cecchini too much? Drains the system a bit, but really Barnes is the only top-50 prospect there.
way too much, you aren’t getting 4 top 15 prospects for garza and barnes is off limits.
What’s a fair offer? Remember if you’re a Boston fan add in a good prospect and if you’re a Cubs fan subtract one to make things more realistic.
I’m neither, I feel a fair offer for Boston would be something around Jackie Bradley and Lavarnway, the problem is the Cubs are in dire need of impact arms and other than Barnes and to a lesser extent Owens the Red Sox don’t have them, so ultimately I don’t see a match.
Well said.
No way on Barnes. Barnes, Bradley, Bogearts, and Lavarnway are all untouchable, at least IMO.
So in other words Boston isn’t trading for Garza at all? He’s going to command at least two top prospects from any team that wants him, I would imagine.
Garza’s a nice pitcher, but hardly an ace. In my book, he’s not even worth any of those guys I listed one for one.
If I’m the Sox I don’t trade with the Cubs, Theo and Jed know their players too well, Cherrington has already made a big mistake getting rid of Reddick.
I’m not convinced that trading away Reddick was that big a mistake. There’s no proof that he would have performed to that level in Boston. And, for better or worse, the team always seemed to place Kalish ahead of Reddick. And with Crawford locked up for years to come, and JBJ as the heir apparent for CF in a year or so, I think that he become expendable.
Garzas a #3 pitcher the first half of baseball and a #1 the second half. For some reason he can never figure it out until the second half. So thats what makes him valuable to a contender
“So in other words Boston isn’t trading for Garza at all?”
sounds good
I don’t think Lavarnway is at all untouchable, but I don’t see any of the other three going in a Garza deal.
Well, I guess that it’s a matter of opinion. The kind of power that Lavarnway has shown doesn’t grow on trees. 😉
I am hoping the Sox hang onto Lavarnway and move Salty over the winter. Salty is going to cost too much after 2013 as a FA and Lavarnway is a good option. I see nothing wrong myself with his “D”, tho that is only watching less than a half dozen games broadcast on the stripped down NESN our local cable provides here (Pawsox, but no BoSox games).
He looks as if moves ok behind the dish and throws well enough to me and his hitting looks much better than Salty’s. He does not chase everything at least and won’t cost over 10m a season for 3+ years and be a candidate to blow up and be a contractual disaster.
My 2c now..
I think that I agree with you on this, JS. I have no problem moving Salty. I just don’t trash him the way that some do. he’s above average within the scope of current MLB catchers, which are generally a sorry lot.
Yeah. No reason to trash on Salty. He’s not doing as good last few weeks as he was earlier, but probably from being tired as much as anything.
Even Shoppach is as good as what some teams have been running out there as starters and some of those teams are in debt 7 figures to those guys.. Like the Fish and John Buck..
20-25 home runs isn’t all that uncommon. Out of a catcher it might be, but in general it’s not.
Boston matches up poorly with the Cubs unless they want to do a Soriano for Crawford and cash contract
Barnes is #13 BA Top 50.
On top of that?
Swihart was #90 on Sickels mid season top 120 report and
Owens was #119
No offense? Boston isn’t giving that package proposed up unless they get back a superstar in return who is under control for a substantial period of time.
That package is way too much. Four potential top 100 prospects (Barnes, Owens, and Swihart were all in Sickels’ top 100 and he said Cecchini was also considered)? No way.
I really don’t see any of Boston’s “big three” (Bradley, Bogaerts, or Barnes) going in a Garza deal, but I could see something around Lavarnway if Theo and Jed are convinced he can catch (because he obviously can’t DH for them).
Maybe Lavarnway, Brentz or Jacobs, and Ranaudo or Britton or Workman (Ranaudo and Britton have a lot higher ceiling than Workman, but are a lot higher risk). I still wouldn’t like it even at that price, but I could see it.
His traditional stats are weaker than usual in some areas (ERA, mostly), but his xFIP and SIERA are the second best they’ve ever been (only to his 2011 numbers). And he’s proven in the AL East AND the playoffs. This is a move I’d be down with, especially if his higher ERA allows the Sox to get a little bit of a bargain?
Oh also, still comes with potential draft pick bonus after 2013, which is one of the many big improvements over Dempster.
“proven in the AL East”
proven what exactly? that he can be a league average pitcher there? because that’s what he was. and that’s a fine thing to have, but not a fine thing to give up good prospects for. not even close
I Remember the 2008 ALCS. We lost a lot of good men. Never Forget.
Also, while writing this comment, Alejandro de Aza came within four rows of hitting me with a foul ball. I risk my life for this analysis, notsureifsrs.
you win by default
yoouuuuuuk
Sadly it came after watching Will Middlebrooks GIDP with the bases loaded (after I explained babip to my fellow fans) and I had some unkind words for the young third basemen.
Sweeeeet Caroline….
aaand worth it
😀 😀 😀
(But now the Boston subway and I don’t even care because CODY ROSS)
Swihart+Bradley Jr+lower class prospect?
No way the Sox trade Bradley for 1.33 years of a solid SP, he’s too much in the team’s future plans. There are plenty of options to go around, though.
Perhaps new surroundings for Lester and Garza. Nice even swap.
and which top prospect are the Sox going to include in that to cover the Cubs oft-repeated desire for young, controllable pitching to help them in the coming years?
1 pricey, struggling major leaguer won’t get you anywhere close to Garza….
yes, Lester clearly doesn’t fit what the Cubs are trying to do… but pricey isn’t what Lester is
if i’m not mistaken his arbitration years are up, so after 2013, when everyone expects the Cubs to start actually contending again, he’ll either be a hot commodity free agent if he returns to form… or dead-weight if he doesn’t. So in the best case scenario this deal would cost the Cubs a small fortune.
I hope you’re kidding… Lester 22.8 WAR. Garza 11.3. Lester isn’t pricey, and is left handed. Zero chance the Sox would ever trade Lester for Garaza.
Garza and Lester (if traded) both hit free-agency at the same time… meaning the Cubs, probably for roughly the same price, could just extend Garza, who’s been pretty consistent throughout his career and NOT have to pray 2012 John Lester isn’t the norm rather than the exception. As i said, Lester, Despite being left-handed, is decidedly not an upgrade for the Cubs.
So i guess we agree… trading Lester for Garza will never happen.
I still believe that Toronto would be a better fit for Garza. Toronto has a lot of young arms in the system. I like Nicolino and Syndergaard the most. This would give Toronto a rotation of Romero, Morrow, and Garza (any order). They’re all #2/3 guys, when healthy and pitching at their best. Romero is in a bit of a funk this season, but I believe he can revert back to his career norms next season. Romero and Garza can both pitch over 200 Innings if needed. They have the hitting, now they just need the pitching. Maybe in the offseason they can go out and sign another guy, to eliminate the instabilities of having a bunch of rookies/inexperienced guys throwing out there. It would also eliminate some of the pressure on the younger guys.
It doesn’t surpise me that we are going hard after Matt Garza. Why? Because it looks like Ben might only have the phone-numbers of GMs sitting in Chicago.
Joking aside, I think both (Jed & ben) like trading pieces with each other, as they are longtime friends (?) and talks might be “smoother” as usual.
But otherwise…I have no idea why we would want Matt Garza. I know he’s AL (east) proven and basically a very consistent pitcher, but he’s not the right guy in our current situation.
Here is the list of our starting pitching:
1. Lester ; 2. Beckett ; 3. Buchholz ; 4. Doubront ; 5. Cook ; 6. Morales and in 2013 John Lackey + maybe Bard (Garza would be under control for another year)…that means we’re not only talking about a logjam, the question is what kind of improvement do we expect from Garza. We have enough #3-#4 pitchers, our whole staff is pitching like that, right now. What we badly need is a frontline-starter…as every team, but most contenders already possess one. You know, a pitcher you can throw into a 1-game playoff game with good feelings. There is nobody on our staff I’d be feeling that way and Garza wouldn’t change that fact.
But other teams should keep calling Ben Cherington as our farm has recovered over the past few years, it’s actually pretty great right now. Even our top 11-15 prospects are arguably better than most teams 5-10 guys. Too bad most of them are position-players.