The Braves and Nationals have positioned themselves as likely playoff teams for 2012 with less than two months to go before the end of the regular season. Baseball Prospectus calculates that the Nationals have a 96.4% chance of making the postseason and gives the Braves a 78.5% chance of being in the playoffs. Here are today's NL East links…
- One MLB official told ESPN.com’s Buster Olney that the Phillies would like to re-acquire a player they once drafted and developed. "You know who they want, right?" the official asked Olney. "They love Michael Bourn." Bourn also figures to draw interest from the Nationals when he hits free agency this offseason, and the Braves will likely have some interest in retaining him. Bourn and agent Scott Boras might have tremendous leverage as the three NL East teams bid for his services. Olney suggests Bourn figures to get a multiyear deal in the $16-22MM per season range, and I agree.
- Both Jose Reyes and the Marlins seem happy with the six-year contract they agreed to last offseason, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports. "I'm happy in Miami," Reyes said. "No regrets for me." The Marlins seem satisfied with Reyes and are unlikely to trade him, Knobler reports.
- Though they have a policy of listening to trade offers for any player, the Marlins seem to like the idea of building their lineup around Reyes and Giancarlo Stanton, according to Knobler.
A 9 figure deal for Michael Bourn would immediately place him amongst the worst contracts in baseball. Lets see if teams can learn from the Carl Crawford situation, speed only players are simply not worth that much.
16 to 22 per for Bourn? Is that a typo?
Bourn is not worth that kinda money. Especially for a leadoff hitter. Let the Nats and Phillies over pay for him Wren.
Would really love if the Mets made a play for Michael Bourne this winter since they have not even ONE solid everyday starting outfielder on the team, and no speed at all. This all depends on them being able to spend this winter and wanting to throw a lot at one player. They also need bullpen help and one or two catchers.
Bourn is not the franchise player you want- he doesn’t give you enough to give him either a long term or ridiculous $ deal as this article suggests. The Mets are better off letting that bidding war rob one of those other teams.
Whichever team signs Bourne in the off-season better be careful they don’t make his contract the next Carl Crawford-like disaster. Bourne’s career OPS is just .704 and his career OPS+ is only 90, plus he turns 30 this off-season. There is NO way he’s worth $16-$22 million per year.
16-22?? Ummm…no thanks.
I’d go as high as 5/85 for Bourne. That’s $17 million per year, and not extremely long of a deal.
Way too much.
4 years 15 mill per
Melky Cabrera in his prime $, Bourn is not in his prime.
If I were the Braves, I’d make him a qualifying offer and hope he doesn’t take it. Actually, I take that back. I’d hope he took it, because I think he’ll be this good for another two years.
Braves have money freed up with Chipper retiring. Resign this man!
Then say good bye to McCann…….remember arb raises for Hanson, Heyward, Venters, Prado, Kimbrel…..commiting that money for Bourn is not a 1 year thing
The BRaves may have to try dumping Uggla to keep their core.
Exactly. And I highly doubt that “dumping” Uggla is a realistic option. However it would work on XBox or PS3
signing bourn to a 16-22mill/year deal should be grounds for being immediately fired
So much this! The team that gives him 16-22 mil is a fool and I know my Braves won’t go that high.
5/80 is the highest i would go. Over that, I’d get someone else. Heyward can play center if he has to.
Correct the Braves will not go that high. They usually tell Boras’ clients not to let the door hit ’em on the way out.
Unfortunately, Amaro just got a new contract so I doubt they’ll fire him immediately.
The sad thing is that I could completely see Rube giving out such a deal despite a guy like Upton likely being half as expensive.
I think if Amaro was to give that type of deal to anybody, Josh Hamilton would be the guy.
If that’s what Bourn wants… I can only imagine what Victorino would want. I’m a big proponent of bringing Michael Bourn back to Philadelphia, but not at that price.
Victorino is not better than Bourn and he is 32, so he would be a much cheaper option
Victorino has a variety of skills that make him a valuable player. Bourn’s entire game is based on speed.
Hope Bourn enjoys his time in Atlanta – no way we’re getting stuck with that kind of contract.
The winner if Bourne gets anywhere near 15mAAV?? ellsbury after next season and who cares 9according to boras) if he has missed about a season and a half of the 6 years with injuries.. boras will GLADLY be pointing out that neither CC or Bourne have the combo of speed, nor power that Ells has and point to Ells 2011 season.
Will it work? man, oh man.. Who knows..
He’s not worth that much. And I love him in our CF. But he shouldn’t get anything more than $10mil.
If the Phillies sign Bourn to 16-22 mil a year they might as well just pack things in and enjoy the bottom of the division for the next decade
Onley seems to value players very highly in the market. First he suggested Lohse might get 4 years and $58 million and now Bourn will get a multi-year deal between 16-22 million a year. If that is the case than Denard Span might look a lot more appealing to teams with a contract of $11 mil over the next two years with a $9 mil option for 2015.
If we trade Rollins this offseason, if and only if, then I would like to have Bourn on our team again (not at that price). But we only need 1 leadoff hitter, and with Galvis to return soon, Rollins could be headed out. Kratz is hitting a ton, so if he keeps it up, we could force Kratz and his strong SLG% & arm to 3rd, and his reasonable OBP and double hitting makes him a 2 hole option.
2013 Lineup 1. L (CF) Bourn 2. R (3B) Kratz 3. L (2B) Utley 4. R (C) Choooch 5. L (1B) Howard 6. L (LF) Brown 7. S (SS) Galvis 8. L/R (RF) Scheirholtz/Mayberry 9. R (P) Cloyd (5th)
Rollins has never been a true leadoff hitter, so acquiring Bourn would allow us to move Rollins down to 6 or 7 in the lineup. As far as I know, Kratz has never played 3B, so we can’t assume that he’d thrive at that position. You also have Ruiz batting cleanup over Howard. While I understand where you’re coming from, we can’t expect Chooch to repeat these offensive numbers in his age 34 season
All good points. Galvis is returning next year, and would be MLB ready to go if Rollins goes, but now he has no where to enter. I know Kratz is not a 3B. However, there are a lot of factors that make him a fit there. In addition to my previously stated reasons, he deserves to play everyday, but blocked by the Chooch, who actually struggled since leaving the 4 spot. In addition, the best 3B this year on the market is the same level as polanco. Not to mention we have 2 prospects who also catch and are likely to replace chooch after next year. He provides the stats, the arm strength, the build, I want him playing everyday, but he won’t be doing so behind the plate for long. Not saying he’d thrive, but he beats what we have now, right?
“blocked” is a term used when a young prospect has no route to the majors… not when a career minor leaguer cant be on the major league team.
Its still the same concept, is that your response to my argument?
apparently it didnt go through, kratz does not create a logjam, he is a backup catcher, he is a 260 minor league hitting catcher that has been in the minors for almost 12 years… how do you expect him to switch to 3b, and hit well enough to be a 2 hitter ? that is beyond silly
There’s talk Chooch will be converted to 3B. He started as a 2B, converted to catcher and has taken grounders at 2B and 3B during practice during his entire career.
Agree. If Ruiz has suddenly turned into a .350 hitter then I will wear a pink tutu and sing skinny-ma-rinky-dinky-dink on national TV. Also Bourn doesnt fix that lineup.
That sounds like the lineup for a 4th place team.
jesus christ, kratz is a 32 year old minor leaguer who is having a good run… just like chris coste did. He has less than 80 major league at bats, and has also played 3b TWICE (2 games) in 11 minor league seasons…. and has a 250 average in the minors, yeah perfect 2 hole hitting 3rd baseman, instead of just paying polanco to play 3 months for 5 mill.
He hasn’t hit 250 in the minors for 3 years. Not saying he’s a perfect 2 hole hitter, but we have a logjam at catcher. I dont feel like retyping, refer below to my defense for Kratz. Coste did not do as well as Kratz is now, and even so he turned out well during our tenure.
sorry, he is a 260 life time minor league hitter. There is no logjam, kratz is a backup catcher, ruiz is the starter, and joesph or valle is the future. I dont need to read anything else to realize how idiotic starting a lifetime backup catcher at 3b and batting him 2nd is.
So then, you leave a .400 AVG, 1.395 OPS hitter to be the back-up, and deal with an awful 3B, when there’s clearly a better hitter wasted on the bench. I will revoke my argument once kratz hits below .300, until then a 300 hitter deserves to play and hit second, especially with double power. Don’t think: is this a good idea for 3B? think: Do we have a beeter option at 3b?
there is no better option for 3b, no… but did you even know who erik kratz was when he was on the team in may? no, you didnt… so to sit and jump to a conclusion that a career minor leaguer who has literally hit well in ONLY SIX GAMES, is ready to bat 2nd, and all of a sudden play 3b is lunacy. They will more than likely figure something else out at 3b, OR just keep polanco for 5 million.
I knew him, just nothing big of him. I guess we just need more time to determine if his skills are true. Then again, its the same thing that happened to chooch. In any case, there is zero chance we bring back polanco for 5 mil. If we do, it’ll be similar to Nix’s deal, if anything.
chooch played in the majors for years before this year, and it is a good year, not a good week. Before you start moving him to 3rd and batting him 2nd, perhaps you should wait until the month is over. Polanco has a 5.5 mill option, if they dont pick it up someone else will sign him… so they will probably bring him back for 1 more year, there are literally no 3b’s on the market after this year, but may be after next
someone else will sign him… for a lot less. Let him go, I don’t care. Agreed, we give Kratz more time. I’m confident he’ll stay hot. Not as hot as now, but still doing very well.
kratz is down almost 100 points in his batting average since august first….
Well Kratz’s OPS is around 1000 still, so to get that out of a 3B is fine enough. Maybe his hot streak wasn’t worth a transition, but now they have Kevin Frandsen, the local utility boy hitting .350. I know its not gonna stay, but now we can pickup a part time FA 3B as supposed to a full time. Eric Chavez or Jeff Keppinger are possible adds. Moving Utley to 3B and doing something else is recently a possibilty. Frandsen is giving us the flexibility to work with.
What about converting Galvis to 3B while Jimmy plays SS? While it’s a different position, he’d have the rest of this season (assuming he comes back), winter ball & spring training to really learn it.
He doesn’t know how to play 3B. You DO understand that, right? Seriously…he doesn’t know how to play it. You’re arguing that he should be moved to a position he doesn’t know how to play simply because he’s hitting well right now and because they have other prospects at his position.
It would be like telling Michael Vick, “Hey, you’re playing really well right now, but we’ve got some great QB prospects in camp and we really need blockers. Remember that great block you threw on a cornerback last season? We think that qualifies you to move to the offensive line.”
That’s a pretty terrible lineup.
Alright, clearly none of you believe Kratz can maintain his productivity. So we’ll just see how well he does, and what the office does in response. Kratz to 3B is simply because we’ll eventually have 4 catchers and not 1 solid option at third. Alright?
Who is the real Freddy Galvis? They’d be better off keeping Rollins
Bourn will be 30 in December. He’s a speed and glove only player. His career slash line is .274/.337/.367. As speed guys age and lose their speed they lose almost all of their value to a team. Some speed guys are freaks, like Ricky Henderson or even Davey Lopes, who can still run very well in their late 30’s and even early 40’s, but for mere mortals, once they get over 30 they lose their speed quickly.
Then look at Bourn’s career. He’s never scored 100 runs. His career high in rbi’s is 50. How is that worth $16-22 mil per season? $16-22 mil mil total for a 3 year contract is more like it, and many would argue $7.33 mil per year on the high end is too much.
Bourn is a very talented player but he shouldn’t be paid like a superstar, especially when his one skill is speed and he is entering the years where statistically 99 percent of all players have started to decline in that skillset.
It’s utterly ridiculous especially when you realize that all he has to do is live up to those #’s and he’s supposedly fulfilling the contract considering they gave him the contract past his prime.
I agree he isn’t worth 16-22 million, but his speed isn’t his only skill. Great defense, good OBP, some pop(career year though) and great defense.
But again those skills got Crawford 140 million which they are regretting by the second
.336 career OBP is not “good” for a leadoff guy, especially one making $16-22M a year.
But look at his last 2 years, he wasn’t a very good player before, now he is. Perfect timing, since he is a free agent at the end of the year
There’s one anomaly year pulling that down quite a bit. If you take his first full season of starting out of the mix, he’s doing pretty well in that department. Since it’s four years removed, you can safely assume that he won’t get on base at a .288 clip in the near future.
-C
Save the cash Atlanta and extend BMac and Hudson. Get Sheets to retire as a Brave and trade Delgado or Teheran while the still have SOME marketability. Gilmartin is a hidden gem. My Ideal Rotation. 1. Hudson 2. Beachy 3.Hanson 4.Sheets 5.Minor You can always add Medlen in the mix too.
Pass on your entire post. I hope the Braves are in no hurry to extend B-Mac right now. His defense is poor and his bat has been trending downward since ’08. I love him as a person and would hate to see him go, but after next year, his game will be better suited in the AL. I wouldn’t mind giving huddy an extension, but nothing more than 2 or 3 years.
And why trade Delgado or Teheran right now when their value is so low? At this point, we’re better off hoping they can turn it around next season.
B-Mac had a horrible first half, BUT he has turned the corner in the second. How is his defense poor? He’s a CATCHER. Have you forgot who the All Star MVP was just two years ago? He has been a Silver Slugger 6 straight years and has provided veteran leadership. With so much youth coming up and Chipper retiring I think that’s important. Clearly Delgado’s value isn’t that low considering the Cubs were ready to give us the MLB ERA leader for him and him alone if the deal hadn’t got held up. And Huddy is are solid #1 pitcher. Who you got replacing him? Besides, he’s done nothing but good things since he got to the ATL. B-Mac and Huddy are essential pieces to the puzzle.
Also who replaces Mac- Bethancourt may be a bust in the big leagues. Ross won’t last under a full season. If Mac gives a hometown discount, give him a 4-yr deal.
No thanks. The Nationals have two potential leadoff CF candidates in the system already and Eury Perez and Brian Goodwin aren’t making 16 million a year.
$16-22M per year for Bourn? A fine player, but not in that class at all. You would think people would learn after the Carl Crawford deal. He has a career OPS+ of 90. Even his stats over this year and last put him at 103.
Let the Phillies overpay for him.
Between having Morse, Harper, Werth, Bernadina, and Moore already in the picture, and Brown(AAA), Perez(AAA), and Goodwin(AA) not far away, the Nationals are already going to have a logjam fairly soon, and overpaying for a speed guy on the wrong side of his 30s would be pretty foolish in my opinion.
Are you sure its Bourn they want and not Travis D’arnaud? The sent D’arnaud to the BlueJays as part of the Roy Halladay trade. I’ve heard that they’ve always wanted to re-aquire him.
If Bourn gets more than $60m, whatever GM gives that would give that to him is nuts. As many other posters have echoed, you don’t shell out a ton of money for a 30 year old whose game is solely predicated on speed. I see something like 4/52 deal ($12m/year, w/5th year option at $12m with $4m buyout, which can vest with 1000 PAs total in years 3 & 4).
Did everybody in baseball just forget about Juan Pierre and the contract he signed after his age 29 season? 5 years for $45 million. I’m not saying that Bourn is going to hit rock bottom like Pierre did, but they are comparable players. Even if Bourn is able to maintain this season’s level of productivity, I wouldn’t give him more than $10 million per year over four years. Anything more is ludicrous.
As he’s showed this year a cheap Pierre has some value, but overspending for these types of skillset players almost never works. Just say NO! Ruben.
One thing though that Bourn provides over Pierre is some more power. Not much more but still more than a career high 3. Bourn also has a better arm than Pierre. I remember the Braves playing the Marlins when Pierre was with them and they just abused the fact that Pierre could not throw out a snail at 2B from shallow CF going 1st to 3rd regularly.
I wish the Mets had done more to try to keep Reyes or at least prevent him from going to a division rival. He offers speed and pop at the top of the lineup, something which Tejada lacks. I can’t see a championship team with someone like Ruben Tejada batting leadoff. I would have preferred keeping Reyes and move Tejada to second, instead of trying Murphy at second; Murphy has a seriously negative UZR there.
Losing a free agent to the Marlins is emasculating.
Everyone is saying how the Red Sox are regretting signing Carl Crawford to his monster contract. Who in their right mind would then turn around and sign Bourn for $16-$22 mil per season?
1 of the 30 teams will ultimately pull this trigger. I can’t see the $22 million but definitely the $15-$16 range and even that’s pushing it. Anything higher is asking for trouble. If Bourn gets $20 million that means Trout, if he keeps up this pace, gets $25-$30 million.
If we were going by actual value, it would mean that Trout would get $40-45 million AAV. On the low end.
did juan pierre ever make $16 million in one season!?
nope.
Man I love Bourn and would like the Braves to keep him but 16-22 it surpasses the limit. At least they can make an offer and raise his price for Nat’s and Phillies to be handcuffed in the future
16-22 will get a team Josh Hamilton.
Ideally a 4 year 64 million deal is what Bourn should make, but if the rich Nats and Phillies are involve (who gave Werth 140 million, and Papelbon 50 million) 16-22 seems realistic
Bourn’s production will drop even more after his contract year is up.
Logical*
I would rather have Melky Cabrera, he’s younger, more power, switch hitter and doesn’t strike out as much. nd besides Rollins will never vacate that leadoff spot.
Braves aren’t resigning Bourn, its a foregone conclusion. I think they’re going to attempt to make a trade for Dexter Fowler or Lorenzo Cain this offseason to take over CF and lead off duties.
The $16-22MM per season has to be a typo.
Crazy idea if you are Braves fan…..in the offseason, trade McCann for Gardner. I know Yanks love Gardner but they will be in the market for a C. McCann is tailor made for Yankee Stadium and would be a great DH vs RHP when not catching. Sign Ross to an extension and make him the starter. He is a better defensive catcher and would give them an additional RH bat in the line-up and of course both on much cheaper. That would give them flexibility to sign an FA or trade for someone like Justin Upton. I wish it was that easy.