Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as usual.
- Greetings!
- Let's begin
RAGBRAI
- Does Gallen get a QO from AZ and if so does he take it? What would he get on the open market with a respectable ROS?
Steve Adams
- They'll give him a QO. His decision probably hinges somewhat on how he finishes, though I expect him to decline it. Gallen feels like he's going to be the next relatively high-profile starting pitcher/Boras client to sign a two-year deal with an opt-out. If he finishes poorly enough, maybe he accepts or (more surprisingly) doesn't get a QO. But I think if the D-backs saw any real scenario where they wouldn't give him the qualifying offer, he'd have been traded in July.
- Obviously, a major injury changes that calculus, but short of that, I'd be surprised if he doesn't get one.
- If he accepts that, it's not the end of the world. They paid Jordan Montgomery $22MM not to throw a pitch for them in 2025. A similarly priced gamble on a Gallen rebound isn't a terrible bet.
Brad
- How many major league free agent contracts have surplus value? I feel like the percentage is much lower than you think.
Steve Adams
- By definition, very few of them are going to provide surplus value. Free agency is an auction, and most teams tap out of the bidding because they feel the price has exceeded the player's value. On some one-year deals or some mid-range free agent deals, you can find some bargains, but it's only natural for the weightier free-agent deals to come in to provide minimal surplus value -- if any at all.
JM
- Why can a player stay under club control after he's released and granted free agency? For instance (if reports are correct), Nathaniel Lowe is a free agent and will sign today with the Red Sox, after the Nats DFAed and released him upon clearing waivers. But those same reports say the Sox will have a final arb year of club control in 2026 (though likely non-tender him anyway). Once a free agent (after a release or a non-tender), not always a free agent?
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- Let’s open up the Weekend Chat! We’ll delve into the bees, beads, and baseball after we get a few questions in the queue…
BhamBrave
- What sort of deal is Marcel Ozuna looking at after this season?
Mark P
- One year, worth maybe around $10MM or so?
He’s entering his age-35 season, and is coming off a solid year that has seen him greatly increase his walk rate, even as his other numbers are basically all down from 2024. (Though still above average.) He’s a DH-only player, and his past off-the-field issues will also limit his market to some extent.
Kyle Schwarber
- Do you think i’ll resign with Philly?
Mark P
- Yes. The Phillies have shown a tendency to retain their favored internal free agents, and Schwarber is beloved by everyone from ownership on down.
intl signings
- What is a better strategy in the intl signing period- sign one top prospect using most of your pool or sign a few second tier guys and spread the risk ? Should you alternate the two strategies ?
Mark P
- It’s hard to say since the international market is such a crapshoot. When dealing with prospects at such a young age, it’s so hard to view a kid as such a “sure thing” that it’s worth committing most of your pool towards a signing. We’ve seen plenty of highly-touted int’l signings over the years fizzle out in the minors, let alone in the big leagues.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Darragh McDonald
- Hello, subscribers.
- Thank you, as always, for being so wonderful to us. It is greatly appreciated.
- Anthony is off this week. Sorry you're stuck with me.
- Let's talk baseball.
Arthur Dent
- What’s your prediction on how things are going to shake out in the AL West? Can the Stros tread water enough the rest of the season to take the division?
Darragh McDonald
- It's obviously pretty tight but I would lean Seattle at the moment.
- Houston has had so many injuries. They've somehow managed to win in spite of them, but it's possible there's a point where they run out of steam.
- Seattle, on the other hand, made some nice deadline upgrades and has some juice.
- Just a guess though. It could obviously go either way. Can't predict this sport. Baseball is dumb/amazing like that.
Wyatt Langford extension?
- With Roman Anthony getting extended by the Red Sox, have you heard anything re: Chris Young looking into signing Wyatt Langford to a long term deal? I think this would be a great time to do it before he breaks out and before players like Acuña will be seeking new contracts. Thoughts? What would his deal look like?
Darragh McDonald
- I haven't heard anything concrete but it would make sense for them to try. He's only going to get more expensive as he pushes towards free agency.
- He'll have two years of service after this year. The top guys in that service class are Tatis and Witt, who got to $300ish.
- Langford hasn't quite got to the superstar level of those guys, however.
- He'd probably come in underneath them right now. But like I said, he'll get more expensive if he keeps playing well and pushing towards the open market.
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! We’ll get going at 1pm CT, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
- Good afternoon! Quiet day and I’m finished eating lunch, so let’s get underway early.
Piratus maximus
- What is Pittsburgh doing? Trading Hayes looks like starting over. Will Cruz still be around when they’re competitive again?
Steve Adams
- I don’t think dumping the rest of an unwanted Hayes contract constitutes starting over. If they traded Paul Skenes, that would’ve been starting over.Cruz only has three years of club control after this one, and I don’t expect the Bucs to compete in 2026, so I’d lean toward him being traded before the Pirates are genuinely competitive again, though.
He Hate Me
- So, just saving money this off-season and still trying to compete in 2026? Or do the Twins enact a full tear-down, including trades of cost-controlled talent like Joe Ryan (whose value could plummet with an injury in 2026)?
Steve Adams
- I don’t think we can really know which direction they’ll go until their sale process has been completed. If they don’t have a new owner in place — or at least an agreement with a buyer — by the offseason, I’d expect each of Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach and Bailey Ober (among others) to be kicked around the trade market this winter — especially the first two.
Frisco Kid
- What are your thoughts about the Giants promoting Bryce Eldridge to the majors?
Steve Adams
- He only has 150ish PAs in AAA and they’ve been good, not great, with a 32% strikeout rate. I get the frustration with the big league club and the excitement to see the org’s top prospect, but a 20-year-old who’s K’ing in nearly a third of his Triple-A plate appearances seems like he’d be overmatched in the majors.Plus, calling him up would mean adding him to the 40-man two years earlier than they need to in order to protect him from the Rule 5. You’re eating up a 40-man roster spot for the coming offseason.
Earlier in the year, I thought the Giants would call up Eldridge if they were contending and he was mashing in AAA. I tend to think now that the better move is to wait until 2026. It’s not like he’s absolutely forcing the issue with dominant play in Sacramento.
Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! We'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time if you prefer! Talk to everyone in a bit.
- Hello! Let's get underway
Dirt
- Michael Harris has gotten on track but Ozzie still isn't doing much with the bat. With Nacho Alvarez getting seasoned, do you think the Braves will pick up the option on Albies, then trade him or just let him walk? What will AA do about the starting rotation?
Steve Adams
- I don't see any scenario where the Braves just buy him out and let him walk to save what would be a net $4MM. Even if they're just done with him, a team would absolutely trade for Albies at a year and $7MM -- especially with a subsequent option for the same amount.Terrible year (well, yearS, plural) or not, Albies is a 28-year-old former All-Star 2B with multiple 30-homer seasons under his belt.Conversely, open up our Contract Tracker -- included with your subscription! -- to check out what kind of position players a year and $7MM can buy you in free agency:
- https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=0&position=H...
- You're looking at bounceback shots in the dark for mid-30s veterans like AJ Pollock, Tommy Pham, Carlos Santana, Robinson Chirinos, etc. It's just not a compelling group, and it's only exacerbated in recent years as the general cost of signing free agents has increased.Add in the value the second $7MM option brings if Albies rebounds next year, and he'd still have legitimate trade value, even coming off a down year.
- That's not to say they'd get a top-100 prospect or any kind of real farm-altering prospect, but they could get something with some actual value and not just completely need to dump the money he's owed.
Who gets to The Show 1st?
- Who gets to The Show first? Bubba Chandler or Jonah Tong? When and why?
Steve Adams
-
- Chandler. He's been in Triple-A for a full year now. Tong hasn't thrown a pitch in AAA (he's being promoted there today).
- I'd imagine that after August 15, once there are few enough remaining days on the calendar that prospects who are called up can retain their rookie status heading into 2026, Chandler's developmental issues will magically be sorted out and he'll be in the majors
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MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- After just one Weekend Chat session in all of July, consider this a bonus entry as a follow-up to yesterday’s chat.
Jason
- Are the brewers for real???
Mark P
- They’ve been “for real” for the better part of the decade. Whether this is the Brewers team that breaks through to make some serious noise in October remains to be seen, but is is remarkable how this team keeps reinventing itself and remaining competitive.
Guest
- While many teams went shopping for a dress to the party at the high end stores, the Royals found some gems at thrift store pricing.
Mark P
- I also liked a lot of KC’s moves. It might be too little too late, but they addressed some needs in a pretty low-cost manner.
John
- Is resigning Cedric Mullins a real possibility for the Orioles?
Mark P
- If I’m the Orioles at this point, I go with the youth movement. No more timeshares, no more splitting at-bats with veterans….let the kids play and see what they can do with everyday at-bats.
- If you are adding a veteran, aim higher than Mullins for a real difference-maker in the regular lineup
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Mark P
- The Weekend Chat has returned! We’ll take a minute to get some questions build up, and then get into it…
Guards ball
- Do you think the guardians have a legit shot to still when the Al central considering the hot start we are on since the all star break?
Mark P
- Detroit’s lead is down to six games over Cleveland, which is still pretty substantial. It would take a combo of the Guards both staying hot, and the Tigers continuing their so-so play over the last month for the Guardians to have a legitimate chance.
It would be pretty ironic if, a year after their big late-season surge, the Tigers were caught by another team going on a surprise late run
Rangers Fan
- I’ve seen conflicting reports on the Rangers CBT situation after the trade deadline additions. The local beat writers are acting as if the Rangers will definitively end the season over the CBT threshold. But other sources, like Spotrac and Cot’s, make it seem like the Rangers can and will end up below the CBT threshold. Obviously, bonuses and incentives complicate things, but if you take the incentives that are “very likely” to hit, it appears the Rangers will stay under with a little room for additional bonuses. Do you have any clarity on this?
Mark P
- A team’s final luxury tax number isn’t officially known until the league releases numbers in December. Sites like Cot’s, Spotrac, RosterResource, etc. do a great job in providing projections and estimates, but they’re the first to tell you that they’re working with incomplete information. Many other factors like roster bonuses or other expenses are known sometimes only to the teams themselves, and those the x-factor numbers audited by the league at year’s end
- My guess right now would be that Texas is just barely under the line, given how Cot’s/RR/Spotrac all have them slightly under the $241MM tax line.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've all enjoyed your week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
Kevin in Tx
- Does Texas rid themselves of Adolis Garcia this winter, his last year of arbitration, I’m guessing a raise to about $12-17 million.
Anthony Franco
- It'd be much closer to 12 than 17. He's not getting an $8M arbitration raise coming off this kind of season. Agree that he's getting non-tendered anyways though
RoxTalks
- Will Brandon Woodruff be extended the QO after he declines his end of the QO?
Anthony Franco
- He's got a $20M mutual option with a $10M buyout. Just clarifying what the questioner means by "declines his end"
- We'll see how he finishes the year but yeah, I think we're trending towards him receiving and declining the QO. Based on our FA deliberations this week, it seems like I'm the low person on staff about Woodruff's earning power, but there's a lot higher upside than there are with some guys who either received the QO last winter (Severino, Martinez) or signed for the same amount (Buehler)
- I feel like Eovaldi's 3/75 is the absolute ceiling and would have him more as a high-AAV two year guy right now, but others at MLBTR (especially Tim Dierkes) think there's a path to a much better deal than that if he shoves through the end of the season and into the playoffs
GWA
- Are the Yanks cooked for 2025.
Anthony Franco
- Eh, I still think they'll hang onto a Wild Card spot. The bullpen's better on paper than it has pitched. It's tough to feel great about them with how badly they've played for the better part of two months, but there's a lot of talent on the roster and they're still in playoff position right now
Alan V
- Who gets your vote for worst owner in Baseball? It could come from Colorado, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Miami, Oakland Or the Chicago White Sox.
-
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get going at 3pm CT, but feel free to start firing questions off ahead of time, if you are so inclined!
- Greetings! Plenty to discuss post-deadline, so let's get after it.
Jon D
- If I understand the post-deadline rules, minor leaguers can still be traded, yes? If so, I think the Red Sox need to get Trey Mancini from the D-Backs. I think this can still be done and he could (hopefully) help fill a hole at 1B that Breslow couldn't address. Thoughts?
Steve Adams
- Ran through post-deadline acquisition rules here over the weekend:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/08/how-to-acquire-players-after-th...Some, not all minor leaguers can be traded. Any player who's on a minor league contract that has not been selected to the majors this season is eligible. He can only be traded for cash, a PTBNL or other minor leaguers who've not had their contracts selected to a major league roster. The PTBNL cannot be someone on a 40-man roster or someone else who's been previously on a big league roster.There are some oddball exceptions. Cavan Biggio was traded last September because he'd been released from his prior major league contract (not had that contract outrighted) and signed a new minor league deal with the Giants, for instance.
- But by and large, you can cross off the idea of trading for the vast majority of players who've appeared on a major league roster or injured list all season.
- Mancini is eligible to be traded, though if the Red Sox felt he was a prominent upgrade to their first base situation, they could've already acquired him from the D-backs for a song. Arizona isn't going to give Mancini much of a look (if any look at all) -- not after acquiring Tyler Locklear to play 1B going forward.
Duffy Scliff
- Will the Royals pick up Salvy’s player option at season’s end? And should they?
Steve Adams
- It's a club option, not a player (or else it'd be Perez's call, not the team's!)Semantics aside, I expect they will. Perez is a franchise icon at this point, and while his seasonlong numbers aren't great, he's hitting .290/.339/.584 over his past 250 plate appearances. That's 48% better than league-average.
It's a $13.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout, so it's really only a net $11.5MM decision for Kansas City. I'd be surprised if they bought him out.
Jim
- If you were the A's, what off-season moves would you make with an eye toward contending in the postseason in 2026?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you enjoyed the week!
- Going to stay around an hour today, it's been a long week. Let's get going
Angels
- What do you think was the most jarring trade of the year or deadline?
Anthony Franco
- Jarring as in "wow, didn't see that coming" was Devers. Has to be Correa for the deadline
- In terms of a move I just don't understand, it's the Red Sox making the Dustin May trade. They must've really soured on James Tibbs in a span of like six weeks
BeLieber
- What did you think of the risk??
Anthony Franco
- In isolation, Stephen is more than I would've wanted to give up (or expected to get, in Cleveland's case) for Bieber
- That said, the Jays' biggest need IMO was a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. Ultimately, there weren't that many of those guys moved. Everyone else balked at the price on Ryan, Cease, Alcantara, Cabrera, Keller, etc. too
- Bieber has that within the range of outcomes in a way that very few starting pitchers who got traded did. So while my initial reaction to it was "man, I think the Guardians beat the Jays in another trade," I've come more around on it as being defensible for Toronto in light of what didn't happen in the ensuing eight hours
M
- Who do you think did the best at the deadline? Who made out the worst?
Arthur Dent
- Which team(s) did the best job of addressing their needs with deadline deals?
Anthony Franco
- I think the Padres did the best job of checking off every box that they needed. Obviously that's easier to do when you trade away more young talent than any other team. Similar logic with Philly to a lesser extent. Needed an elite late-game arm, paid heavily but got him
- On value alone, I think Texas and Seattle came out pretty well. Rangers did give up a decent amount for Kelly but he was one of the better starters available and they had pretty limited budgetary room. Would be a fair criticism that their biggest need was offense and they didn't address that though
- On the other end, this was a pretty big letdown for Detroit. They got a couple back-end starters, neither of whom is as good as Reese Olson (who they lost to injury). They needed to upgrade the back of the bullpen but instead opted for a bulk approach where they're swapping out three or four mediocre relievers for marginal at best upgrades
BeBopCola
- Do you think the brewers should’ve done a little more to acquire a bat at the deadline?
Anthony Franco
- I'm surprised they didn't get a better utility piece, at least, but I get why they didn't want to disrupt the lineup when it's going this well
- Pretty quiet overall but I'm a fan of the late Shelby Miller dart throw for a couple million dollars
M
- Were you surprised at the small return for anyone? Or thought someone had a significant overpay?
Anthony Franco
- Given how definitively Suárez had pulled away as the best rental bat, I thought Arizona would do better than they did. Not necessarily a top 100 caliber prospect but they're putting a lot into Locklear being a plug and play average or better regular at first base
- Mentioned May already. Not even a huge James Tibbs fan really but I don't see a ton of appeal with May so that felt rich. Mets went a little heavy to get Tyler Rogers
- Really liked the Royals' end of the Fermin trade. Ryan Bergert's a potential #3/4 starter who is MLB ready and they got six years of him for a low-end #1 catcher
-
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