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2013 Arbitration Eligibles

Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Wilson represents a high-profile non-tender candidate for the World Champions.  The closer, 31 in March, had Tommy John surgery in April.  Though he missed most of the 2012 season, a salary decrease is unlikely, hence the $8.5MM figure.  It'd be a large commitment for a reliever coming off major elbow surgery, even if Wilson manages to beat the typical one-year recovery and be ready for Opening Day.  The Giants would still have Romo, Casilla, and Javier Lopez in next year's bullpen, though if they cut Wilson and lose Jeremy Affeldt via free agency they might feel compelled to make an addition. 

Casilla, and especially Romo, make for a formidable pair at the back end of the bullpen.  The Giants also have arbitration eligible relievers in Mijares and Hensley.  Mijares was solid following the Giants' August waiver claim, while Hensley is a non-tender candidate.

The Giants have a few utility types up for arbitration in Blanco, Arias, and Burriss.  Blanco and Arias seem safe, while Burriss was on and off the team's 40-man roster in 2012 and will be let go.

In Pence, the Giants have the most expensive arbitration eligible player in all of baseball.  A former Super Two, the right fielder took a larger-than-usual salary leap by winning his 2011 arbitration case.  For some reason, the Astros and Phillies never hammered out an extension with Pence and he's continued going year-to-year.  He was a trade deadline acquisition for the Giants, and unlike his Phillies' post-deadline stint in '11, Pence struggled.  The Giants don't seem to be considering non-tendering him; instead they'll hope for a return to career levels in 2013. 

Posey was the NL's Comeback Player of the Year after missing most of 2011 due to a major ankle injury.  He's also an MVP candidate, an award that would further boost his arbitration salary.  We don't project Posey to sniff Ryan Howard's first-time arbitration record of $10MM, but the Super Two backstop will set a first-time record for catchers and would get expensive in a hurry going year-to-year.  Carlos Gonzalez signed the biggest extension for a player with less than three years service, a seven-year, $80MM deal.  Since he's a Super Two player, Posey would deserve about that much on a six-year contract.  However, Posey's agents at CAA Sports could have a $100MM+ deal in their sights, assuming an extension is on the table for both parties.

Assuming the Giants tender contracts to only Posey, Casilla, Romo, Mijares, Blanco, and Arias, they're looking at an estimated $18.6MM for six arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics

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The Athletics are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

The A's have a pair of arbitration eligible relievers in Blevins and Neshek.  The A's have deemed Blevins expendable in the past, but he continues to shut down southpaws and will be retained this winter.  Neshek, who has the opposite split, has bounced around in recent years.  He dominated for the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate this year before his trade to Oakland, after which he posted a couple of solid months with the big club.  Those two months may allow him to keep his 40-man roster spot, but it's not a lock.

Kottaras was designated for assignment by the Brewers in July before the A's acquired him.  The 29-year-old has good pop and should stick around as Derek Norris' backup.  Barton, the former first-round pick who led the American League in walks in 2010, was tendered a contract by the A's a year ago and began 2012 on the DL recovering from shoulder surgery.  Upon his activation Barton regained his starting job at first base, but by June he was optioned to Triple-A.  Barton wouldn't really receive a raise, but the A's have better options at first in Moss and Chris Carter.  It might make sense for a team like Boston to acquire him on the cheap.  Rosales, 29, was an up-and-down guy this year, and the A's could cut him for the roster spot.

Moss, 29, was a cheap offseason pickup by the A's who went on to hit 21 home runs in just 296 plate appearances.  He's got a big role on next year's club.  Smith wasn't spectacular, but he did his job against right-handed pitching (.259/.352/.454) and will also be tendered a contract.  He could be trade bait given the team's crowded outfield picture, though he spent a chunk of time at designated hitter this year.    

Assuming Smith, Moss, Kottaras, Blevins, and Neshek are tendered contracts, the A's are looking at an estimated $7.7MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Let's begin with the Braves' three arbitration eligible starting pitchers.  Jurrjens, 27 in January, spent the 2011-12 offseason immersed in trade rumors and was demoted to Triple-A four starts into this season.  He rejoined the club in June, and after six more starts was moved to a relief role.  A DL stint for a groin strain capped off the lost season and his Braves career.  Most expect Jurrjens to be non-tendered at the end of the month.  It's worth noting that if there is a team that valued Ervin Santana at $12MM, there might be one that values Jurrjens at less than half that salary.

Jurrjens' move to the bullpen was tied to Medlen's promotion to the rotation.  The 27-year-old was ridiculously good in 12 starts, posting a 0.97 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and 0.54 HR/9.  He'd undergone Tommy John surgery in August 2010, and initially returned to the Majors in a relief role.  Medlen was so good as a starter that the Braves lined him up to start their play-in game against the Cardinals.  If the Braves are sold, they could consider locking Medlen up to a Johnny Cueto-type contract, four years and $27-30MM plus a club option.

Hanson, 26, pitched better than his 4.48 ERA but allowed a lot of hits and home runs in a disappointing campaign.  The team's Opening Day starter, he missed some time with a back strain this season and his average fastball velocity fell below 90 miles per hour for the first season in his career.  He still managed a healthy strikeout rate at 8.3 per nine innings.  The Braves were unable to dump Jurrjens before his value tanked; now they must assess Hanson's value for the next three seasons and determine a course of action.  In the short-term, he'll obviously be tendered a contract.

Prado had a strong year primarily as the team's left fielder, providing value on both offense and defense.  It seems likely the 29-year-old will move to third base for 2013, with Chipper Jones retiring.  Prado is entering his walk year, and the Braves could try to lock him up in the range of Howie Kendrick's four-year, $33.5MM contract.

Heyward is arbitration eligible for the first time, fresh off the best season of his young career.  Nick Markakis' six-year, $66.1MM extension would be a solid target, though that deal was done nearly four years ago so the Braves may have to do better.  Janish began the season at Triple-A in the Reds' organization, missed a month with a broken wrist, and was dealt to Atlanta in mid-July.  His season ended in September with a dislocated shoulder, and he's a non-tender candidate.

In the bullpen, O'Flaherty, Venters, and Martinez are in good standing.  O'Flaherty, 28 in February, is entering a contract year.  The Braves could look to tack on a free agent year.  Moylan had shoulder surgery in September 2011 and signed a minor league deal to return to the Braves in January.  He wouldn't cost a lot through arbitration, but is a candidate to be non-tendered if the Braves would prefer to have the roster spot open for now.

If only Prado, Hanson, O'Flaherty, Heyward, Medlen, Venters, and Martinez are tendered contracts, the Braves are looking at an estimated $23.1MM for seven players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

With Motte, Mujica, Boggs, Rzepczynski, and McClellan, the majority of the Cardinals' arbitration cases are relievers.  In his first full year as the Cardinals' closer, Motte racked up an impressive 42 saves with strong peripheral numbers.  The 30-year-old is under team control through 2014, and the Cardinals could reduce the cost and add a free agent year or two with an extension.  The three-year, $20MM extension signed by Carlos Marmol after the 2010 season could be a model.

Mujica came to the Cardinals at the trade deadline and allowed just three runs in 26 1/3 regular season innings.  With 30 holds this year, he's in line for a handsome raise.  Boggs posted 34 holds, and will top $1MM as a first-timer.  Rzepczynski slipped this year, but figures to be retained affordably.  McClellan spent most of the year on the disabled list, requiring shoulder surgery in July.  Earlier this month, MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch wrote that McClellan will throw for the entire month of November, which will give the Cardinals a chance to evaluate him before deciding whether to tender a contract.  Langosch expects McClellan to be non-tendered, but with the door open for a new contract.

Freese, 29, made the All-Star team this year and ultimately posted career highs in games played (144 in the regular season) and thus all relevant counting stats.  Last year's postseason heroics won't hurt at the arbitration table, either.  Is it too early to consider extending Freese, a Wildwood, Missouri native?  Freese's injuries this year were numerous but minor, though you hate to see any kind of ankle concerns still cropping up.  I think the Cards would be best-served to let 2013 play out before seriously talking extension.

Assuming everyone is tendered a contract aside from McClellan, the Cardinals are looking at a projected $12.7MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Bastardo's high strikeout/walk/flyball rate formula was less effective for him on the surface this year, given the significant increase in his ERA.  43 holds over the past two seasons should still enable him to exceed $1MM as a first-timer.  Frandsen had a nice campaign in 210 plate appearances, and has probably earned a spot on next year's team.

Schierholtz, 28, came to the Phillies in their trade deadline Hunter Pence deal but totaled only 73 plate appearances for his new club.  He missed time with a broken toe, and is a non-tender candidate.

Assuming Bastardo and Frandsen are tendered contracts, the Phillies are looking at an estimated $1.9MM for two arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

For Latos to reach our projected salary, he'll have to set a new first-time starting pitcher record.  A comparison to the relevant slice of Jered Weaver's career suggests it's possible but far from certain, especially with Weaver holding a signficant advantage in wins.  At any rate, Latos should exceed $4MM and is on track for some large raises in the coming years unless the Reds extend him.  Latos' agency, Bledsoe Brothers, would be in uncharted waters on an extension, as there are no comparable contracts signed by other pitchers.  I'd expect more than $60MM on a five-year deal.

Bailey's peripheral numbers were remarkably similar to last year's, but he topped 200 innings for the first time, posted his first sub-4.00 ERA, and finished his season with a run of dominance that included a no-hitter.  Given the 26-year-old's shoulder issues prior to this year, the Reds may want to be cautious about an extension.  Leake has shown himself to be a credible back-end starter.  Perhaps the Reds hoped for more upon drafting him eighth overall in 2009, but he's still a good deal his first time through arbitration.

In the bullpen, the Reds have Bray, Ondrusek, and Simon up for arbitration.  Bray missed most of the season with injuries, and could be a non-tender candidate.  On the other hand, his raise wouldn't be much, and his injuries were not arm-related.  Ondrusek's control problems continued this year, and he was left off the Reds' playoff roster in favor of J.J. Hoover.  Ondrusek could be cut loose, more out of concern for a roster spot than his salary.  Simon, claimed off waivers from the Orioles in April, increased his groundball rate and had a solid year, so he's safe.

On the position player side, Stubbs' offense continued to plummet.  He could be trade bait this winter, but it seems more likely the Reds will wait until Billy Hamilton is ready for the Majors.  I expect Stubbs to be tendered a contract, though it's not a total lock.  Heisey seems secure in his oft-used fourth outfielder role.  Valdez is headed for a non-tender after posting a .463 OPS this year.

If Latos, Bailey, Leake, Stubbs, Bray, Heisey, Ondrusek, and Simon are retained, the Reds are looking at $20MM for eight arbitration eligible players.  As I've mentioned, however, some of those eight are borderline non-tender candidates.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

His first time through arbitration, Price matched but was unable to top the first-time starting pitcher arbitration record of $4.35MM held by Dontrelle Willis (or $4.365MM by Jered Weaver, if you count award bonuses).  His second time through, Weaver aimed for $8.8MM, but received $7.37MM after losing a hearing.  With a 20-win platform season and a possible Cy Young award, we project Price to fly well beyond $9MM and set a new second-time record.  The Rays control their ace through 2015, but other teams are presumably salivating in hopes of prying him loose before then. 

Niemann broke his right fibula in May, and upon returning in September quickly went down again with a shoulder issue.  The 29-year-old won't get much of a raise and should certainly be tendered a contract.  The Rays have the depth to trade Niemann, but it'd make sense to let him rebuild some value first.

The Rays acquired Roberts in July after the Diamondbacks designated him for assignment.  The versatile 32-year-old had a rough year, and with his salary potentially approaching $3MM the Rays may cut him loose.  Rodriguez is another non-tender candidate, though it's possible the Rays can find a taker via trade before the end of November.  The 27-year-old began the year the favorite at shortstop for the Rays, but was optioned to Triple-A by late August.  The Rays were Francisco's third stop in 2012, and he's another non-tender candidate.

Matt Swartz tells me Fuld is a unique case, in that players with such abbreviated platform seasons and light career work rarely make to arbitration and are tendered contracts.  Fuld's issue this year was wrist surgery.  It appears that Fuld would barely be above the league minimum salary if tendered a contract, so the fact that he's subject to the arbitration process doesn't mean much.

Joyce spent time at both corner outfield positions and continued to struggle against left-handed pitching.  He was fairly productive otherwise and should be retained.  Badenhop will stick around as well, as his low-walk, high-groundball mix was effective in 2012.   

If only Price, Niemann, Joyce, and Badenhop are retained, the Rays are looking at an estimated $16.8MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

A broken ankle caused Morales to miss most of the 2010 season and all of 2011, and he finally returned in 2012 to find Albert Pujols occupying his position.  Spending the majority of his time at DH, Morales managed to pop 22 home runs in 522 plate appearances this year.  It seems sudden due to the time missed, but the 29-year-old Cuban will be entering his walk year in 2013.  As designated hitters go, Morales wasn't anything special this year, and besides, he's a Boras Corporation client.  Free agency is probably in his future.    

Callaspo was the team's primary third baseman, though he was just passable with the bat.  Like Morales, he will probably be retained but seems unlikely to be extended.

Jepsen, a hard-throwing 28-year-old reliever, racked up 18 holds in just 44 2/3 innings this year.  He spent a couple months early in the season at Triple-A, but by September he was in the closer discussion.  He'll be around next year.

Williams battled injuries in 2012 and was eventually replaced in the rotation in July.  Since his improbable return to the Majors last year, Williams has proven useful at times, but he's a likely non-tender candidate this winter.

If Morales, Callaspo, and Jepsen are retained, the Angels are looking at an estimated $10.1MM for three arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Hanrahan remains an asset for the Pirates, though this year's return to a big-time strikeout rate came with the unwanted side effects of a high walk rate and a lot of flyballs.  On the surface, the Bucs have a guy who's converted 76 of 84 save opportunities the last two years with a 2.24 ERA and two All-Star game appearances.  Hanrahan will be entering his walk year.  With draft pick compensation for relievers mostly a thing of the past, GM Neal Huntington has to decide whether to trade Hanrahan or extend him in the neighborhood of $10MM per free agent year.

Elsewhere in the bullpen there's Resop, who added groundballs this year at the expense of strikeouts.  The 29-year-old is hittable yet serviceable, and he's not terribly expensive.

The Pirates have three arbitration eligible starting pitchers.  McDonald's ERA sat at 2.37 after a July 7th win; through 110 innings it seemed as if he'd turned a corner.  He was brutal over his next 13 outings, with a 7.52 ERA in 61 frames.  It was an odd season, but McDonald is expected to begin next year back in the Pirates' rotation.  Now is not the time to consider trading or extending him.

Morton had hip surgery a year ago, but was able to make his season debut in mid-April.  He lasted only nine starts before succumbing to Tommy John surgery.  He has to be considered a non-tender candidate, as otherwise the Pirates would have to pay him a projected $2.6MM in 2012 to pitch at most three and a half months.  Huntington must decide the value of the chance to control Morton for the 2014 season.  The GM was noncommittal on the subject of Karstens, who had an injury-shortened 2012 as well.  Since Karstens finished the season healthy, he might be on firmer ground than Morton.

Jones needs a platoon partner, but he did hit .289/.332/.556 with 25 home runs in 434 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.  I think he's safe, though this could be the last raise the Pirates are willing to give him.  Walker had another nice year, and the Pirates have flirted with extending the Pittsburgh native before.  In March, I suggested five years and $27MM for the Super Two second baseman.

The Pirates acquired Sanchez from the Marlins at the July trade deadline.  The 29-year-old was better for the Bucs, but still fell well short of the production of a typical starting first baseman.  There's a decent chance he's non-tendered.

If only Hanrahan, Jones, Karstens, McDonald, Walker, and Resop are retained, the Pirates would be looking at an estimated $22.3MM for six arbitration eligible players.       

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  With 15 arbitration eligible players, the O's have the largest group of any team.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Let's begin dissecting this massive group by looking at the pure relievers: Johnson, O'Day, and Patton.  As a pitch-to-contact, groundball-oriented guy, Johnson is not your prototypical closer.  However, it'd be hard for the Orioles to argue against a 51-save platform year from the 29-year-old, and Johnson is in line for a hefty raise.  If the Orioles believe in Johnson long-term, they could get him at a lower 2013 salary by doing a multiyear deal.  O'Day added a third stellar season to his resume, though his holds totals aren't big enough to send his salary skyrocketing.  Likewise for Patton's fine 2012.

Matusz and Hunter spent time starting and relieving this year, and both were much more effective in relief.  As Super Two first-timers, their careers as starters will earn them extra money in arbitration.  Both had decent rotation stints a few years back.  Matusz will surely be tendered a contract, and I think Hunter is safe as well.

Few expected a move to the AL East to coincide with the best year of Hammel's career, but the 30-year-old posted a 3.43 ERA.  However, a long DL stint for knee surgery limited him to 118 innings, his lowest total since '08.  That will suppress his raise.  The righty will be entering a contract year, so if the club buys into the new and improved Hammel, a multiyear deal should be considered.  The team could aim for something below the three-year, $24MM deal Joe Blanton signed before the 2010 season.

The Orioles have ten arbitration eligible position players, many of whom are non-tender candidates.  The biggest name is Reynolds, who would be arbitration eligible in the likely event the team chooses a $500K buyout over his $11MM club option.  Our projections suggest they could sign him for less than $9MM through the arbitration process, but that's still probably too hefty.  Andino is coming off a very rough offensive year, and the Orioles might let him go rather than pay him close to $2MM.

The other position player non-tender candidates all project to earn a million bucks or less in 2013.  Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com thinks Teagarden will be back as Wieters' rarely-used backup, despite Teagarden's abysmal offense over his last 400 career plate appearances.  Pearce was all over the place: signed by the Twins to a minor league deal in December, released in March, then a minor league deal with the Yankees, then a June trade to the Orioles, designated for assignment by the Orioles in late July, claimed off waivers by the Astros, traded to the Yankees in late August, designated again in late September, and finally claimed by the Orioles.  He has some pop, but the Orioles probably will not let him keep his 40-man roster spot.

Ford found his way back to the Majors in late July, the 36-year-old's first big league appearance since '07.  He'd done a nice job at Triple-A but also probably won't keep his 40-man spot.  Quintanilla had his largest Major League plate appearance total this year since '08, and he can also be safely cut loose.  A neck injury ended Reimold's season in April; he had surgery in June.  He can be retained cheaply enough and will probably remain in the left field mix next year.

Wieters is an important case for the Orioles, as he could earn almost $5MM as a first-timer.  The 26-year-old backstop was not arbitration eligible a year ago due to a conscious effort in 2009 by the previous front office to ensure he'd avoid Super Two status.  Given that memory, and the fact that Wieters is represented by the Boras Corporation, I'm guessing the best the Orioles could do would be to buy out only his arbitration years (2013-15).  I've never been a big fan of that type of extension.

Davis should make decent money as a first-timer, with a 33-home run platform year and some decent longball totals early in his Rangers career.  There's no doubting his power, though he's not one to draw a walk or add value on defense.  He's generally not the type to get a multiyear deal, because even if you design something team-friendly, he could still go Adam Lind on you.

Working under the assumption only Johnson, Hammel, Wieters, Davis, O'Day, Hunter, Reimold, Matusz, and Patton are retained, the Orioles are looking at an estimated $28.1MM for nine arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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