Headlines

  • Rays Close To Contract Extension With Yandy Diaz
  • Mets To Extend Jeff McNeil
  • Braves Extend Manager Brian Snitker Through 2025
  • Rays Sign Pete Fairbanks To Extension
  • Royals Sign Aroldis Chapman To One-Year Deal
  • Athletics Sign Jesús Aguilar
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • Top 50 Free Agents
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Arbitration Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Paul Maholm

By Tim Dierkes | April 15, 2013 at 11:18am CDT

Braves lefty Paul Maholm is off to an amazing start this season.  He's begun the season with 20 1/3 scoreless innings, striking out 20 and walking five.  The 30-year-old has nice timing — he's eligible for free agency after the season.

Uspw_6524340

Maholm was a free agent once before, when the Pirates chose a $750K buyout over his $9.75MM club option after the 2011 season.  He was good that year, but his season ended in August due to a shoulder strain.  Not only did the Cubs get him on a one-year deal, but they were also able to tack on a club option.  That improved Maholm's trade value, and the Braves gave up a notable arm in Arodys Vizcaino to acquire him last July.  Maholm finished strong with Atlanta, improving his strikeout rate over his final 11 starts.  His $6.5MM club option was an easy decision to exercise last October.

Assuming the Braves do not extend Maholm during the season, they'll be faced with the question of whether to make a qualifying offer.  The qualifying offer process had its first run last offseason, and the Braves were one of seven teams to make one (to Michael Bourn).  That worked out well, and I think there's a good chance they'll make one to Maholm – even if the qualifying offer comes in near my projection of $14MM.  Maholm does not generally feel worthy of a one-year offer in the $14MM range, though Hiroki Kuroda did better than that last winter.  And while I don't know that Maholm's nice start in 2013 should change our perception of him, if he pitches at a 3.90 ERA from this point forward, his season ERA should come in below 3.50.  Plus, if some of the increased strikeout rate sticks, Maholm can shake the stigma of being a pitch-to-contact guy.

So if Maholm enters free agency at age 31, coming off a sub-3.50 ERA campaign, he'll be expecting a multiyear deal this time.  That means he should turn down the qualifying offer.  Kyle Lohse is the cautionary tale: he was coming off 399 1/3 innings of 3.11 ball over two seasons, and faced a slow market due in part to being attached to a draft pick.  But as many have pointed out, Lohse also entered the market with the standard Boras-inflated price tag, and teams shied away for that reason too.  Maholm and agent Bo McKinnis might consider Lohse's three-year, $33MM contract to be close to fair value.

Lohse's contract was the fourth-largest signed by a pitcher last offseason, and the biggest for one who received a qualifying offer.  Maholm will enter free agency as a 31-year-old, while Lohse was 34.  A fourth guaranteed year could prove elusive for Maholm if he turns down a qualifying offer.  Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez were able to get it, but both pitchers were under 30 and did not require forfeiture of a draft pick.  Perhaps Maholm could at least top Lohse's $11MM average annual value.

The "best free agent starter" label goes a long way, however.  Just ask C.J. Wilson, a good, 31-year-old pitcher who received a five-year, $77.5MM deal after the 2011 season, with draft pick compensation attached.  There is a lot of baseball left to be played — most of it, actually — but if Maholm keeps rolling while Josh Johnson, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum remain inconsistent, the Braves lefty is a dark horse candidate for the title of best free agent starter.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Share 0 Retweet 16 Send via email0

Atlanta Braves Free Agent Stock Watch Paul Maholm

Future Chase Headley Suitors
Main
Next Offseason’s Best Free Agent Starter
View Comments (0)

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.
Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    Rays Close To Contract Extension With Yandy Diaz

    Mets To Extend Jeff McNeil

    Braves Extend Manager Brian Snitker Through 2025

    Rays Sign Pete Fairbanks To Extension

    Royals Sign Aroldis Chapman To One-Year Deal

    Athletics Sign Jesús Aguilar

    Orioles Acquire Cole Irvin From A’s

    Astros Name Dana Brown General Manager

    Rays Extend Jeffrey Springs

    Royals, Red Sox Swap Adalberto Mondesi For Josh Taylor

    Red Sox Designate Matt Barnes For Assignment

    Scott Rolen Elected Into Baseball Hall Of Fame

    Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall

    Brad Ausmus Reportedly Among Astros’ GM Finalists

    Mike Clevinger Under Investigation For Domestic Violence Allegations

    Arte Moreno No Longer Pursuing Sale Of Angels

    Twins Acquire Michael A. Taylor From Royals

    Padres Sign Nelson Cruz To One-Year Deal

    Sal Bando Passes Away

    Twins, Marlins Swap Luis Arraez For Pablo Lopez In Four-Player Trade

    Recent

    Phillies Sign Josh Harrison

    Angels Interested In Zack Britton

    MLBTR Chat Transcript

    NL Notes: Schuerholz, Braves, Astros, Mets, Dodgers

    Giants To Sign Roberto Perez

    Free Agent Profile: Dylan Bundy

    Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Gleyber Torres

    Dipoto: Mariners Likely Done Adding To Roster Before Camp

    Fernando Tatis Jr. Opens Up About Lost Season

    Rockies Owner Dick Monfort Addresses 2023 Season, Padres, Off-Season

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Offseason Outlook Series
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Go Ad-Free
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2023
    • 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List
    • MLB Player Chats
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • Feeds by Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top
    Close

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version