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Archives for November 2013

Arbitration Eligibles: Pittsburgh Pirates

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Pirates are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Though Jones faced lefties in only about five percent of his plate appearances, the left-handed hitter still compiled a dismal .233/.289/.419 line on the season.  He's topped 20 home runs in three of his five years with the Bucs, and can still be a useful platoon bat.  However, with arbitration likely to push Jones' salary past $5MM for 2014, I think he'll be non-tendered.

Infielders Walker, Alvarez, and Sanchez should be in good standing for 2014.  Walker's production remained consistent.  Despite extension talks in the past, the Pirates have yet to extend the Pittsburgh native.  Howie Kendrick's four-year, $33.5MM deal could serve as a model, though Walker would probably have to top $40MM to account for being a Super Two.  Alvarez made the All-Star team and hit 36 home runs with 100 RBI this year, though he also led the NL in strikeouts and posted a .296 OBP.  I'd be cautious in considering an extension, but it's probably a moot point with the Boras Corporation representing Alvarez.  Sanchez did what was asked of him, hitting lefties extremely well while facing them almost 40% of the time.  He'll probably be retained.

Snider and McKenry are on thinner ice.  Snider, a former first-round pick in '06, had a chance at running away with the Pirates' right field job but failed to produce and battled injuries.  There's a decent chance he's non-tendered, especially since he's out of options.  McKenry surprised with a dozen home runs in part-time duty last year behind the plate, but a knee injury that eventually required surgery ended his 2013 season in July.  Even if Tony Sanchez gets the backup nod next year, McKenry seems cheap enough to retain in Triple-A for depth.

Morton had Tommy John surgery in June 2012 and made his 2013 season debut a year later.  The 29-year-old groundball pitcher put together a strong 116 innings, posting a 3.26 ERA.  Now he's entering his contract year, so the Pirates must decide whether to try to extend him.  The Bucs might want something like two years and $12MM or three years and $20MM, plus a club option in either case, since Morton has yet to reach 175 innings in a season.  If Morton plays out his contract year and approximates his 2013 success over a full season, the price will rise quite a bit and he can avoid option years. 

Melancon had a breakout year in the Pirates' bullpen, making the All-Star team and posting a 1.39 ERA in 71 innings.  He racked up 16 saves when closer Jason Grilli went down, plus 26 holds as Grilli's setup man.  As good as he was in 2013, I don't think there's a need for the Pirates to pursue an extension unless it's very team-friendly.  Mazzaro rode a 52.2% groundball rate to a strong relief season, and should also have a spot in next year's pen.

Assuming the Pirates tender contracts to Walker, Alvarez, Morton, Melancon, Sanchez, McKenry, and Mazzaro, they're looking at an estimated $19.7MM for seven arbitration eligible players.

Giants Decline Ryan Vogelsong’s Option

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MONDAY: The Giants have officially declined Vogelsong's option, Baggarly tweets.

SUNDAY: The Giants have informed right-hander Ryan Vogelsong his $6.5MM club option will not be exercised but negotiations have begun on a restructured contract, sources tell Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com. Vogelsong will receive a $300K buyout.

The Giants are interested in bringing back Vogelsong, according to Baggarly, but for a smaller guaranteed salary with incentives based on innings and/or starts. Vogelsong missed nearly three months with a broken pinky on his throwing hand and struggled to a 5.73 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 10.8 H/9 in 103 2/3 innings over 19 starts. Baggarly theorizes the savings from Vogelsong could be reinvested into re-signing lefty specialist Javier Lopez. 

The Giants are expected to officially announce its decision on Vogelsong tomorrow.

D-Backs, Cubs Expected To Discuss Samardzija Trade

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The Cubs will likely continue to discuss trading starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija to the Diamondbacks, ESPN's Buster Olney tweets. It now appears unlikely that the Cubs will sign Samardzija to an extension, so with only two years remaining before he hits free agency, it makes sense that a rebuilding team might look to trade him.

After pitching in relief in 2011, Samardzija has emerged as a solid starter in the past two seasons, posting a 4.34 ERA in 2013, but with 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. If the Cubs were to deal him, he ought to be able to return good young talent. The Cubs did consider dealing him at last year's trading deadline, but they were reportedly asking a lot. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman wrote then that if the Cubs were unable to sign Samardzija in the offseason, a winter trade would be likely.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals fell to the Red Sox in the World Series last week, but with a roster well-stocked with young talent, their short- and long-term futures appear bright.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles

Free Agents

With a terrific 2013 season, a strong big-league core in place and more young talent on the way, the Cardinals are in excellent shape, and nothing that happens this offseason is likely to change that. Their four free agents include two players (Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal) who didn't even play in 2013, which means that they'll only have to deal with the possible departures of two players (Carlos Beltran and Edward Mujica) who made meaningful contributions. (They'll also likely lose Jake Westbrook, whose option they recently declined.) That will leave them with only a few areas that they clearly need to address this offseason. And with Beltran, Carpenter, Furcal, Mujica and Jake Westbrook's combined salary of almost $45MM now available to spend, they'll have plenty of cash on hand.

Besides Mujica, every pitcher who made an impact in 2013, including many who will continue to make league-minimum salaries, will be available to return to a staff that finished fifth in the Majors in runs allowed. If anything, there's a chance that the Cardinals' pitching might be even better next year, given the likely departure of  Westbrook, who threw 116 2/3 of the Cardinals' weakest innings in 2013. The likely recipient of many of those innings will be 2013 rookie Michael Wacha, who pitched well in 64 2/3 regular-season innings and was nearly unhittable throughout much of the postseason. Three other spots in the rotation will likely be taken by perennial Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright, top youngster Shelby Miller and workhorse Lance Lynn.

That leaves Joe Kelly, who isn't nearly as good as his 2.69 ERA in 2013 suggests but is more than capable in the back end of a rotation. Jaime Garcia will also likely be a a possibility — he's currently rehabbing the shoulder injury that shut him down in May. Carlos Martinez could also vy for a rotation spot, and Tyler Lyons will be available as depth. Tim Cooney, who's coming off an outstanding season at Double-A Springfield, may emerge as a possibility later in the season. With front-line starting pitching and quality depth, there is little reason for the Cardinals to pursue a starting pitcher in free agency.

They'll also have few meaningful losses in their starting lineup, although there are plenty of moving parts. They're set with Yadier Molina at catcher, Allen Craig and Matt Adams at first base, and Matt Holliday in the outfield. At their other outfield positions, letting Beltran depart might open up more opportunities for Adams (with Craig moving to the outfield so that Adams can play first) and top prospect Oscar Taveras. They also have Jon Jay, who they could leave in center field or upon whom they could attempt to upgrade. Kolten Wong will likely become the Cardinals' primary second baseman, with Matt Carpenter, a potential MVP candidate in 2013, moving to third. The Cardinals could also keep Wong in Triple-A if need be, leave Carpenter at second, and stick with David Freese at the hot corner.

That leaves shortstop, which was a glaring weakness for the Cardinals all season, with starter Pete Kozma playing at replacement value and showing few signs of the ability to climb much above it. The free agent class at shortstop isn't outstanding, but Stephen Drew or perhaps Jhonny Peralta would make sense. There may also be options on the trade market, although Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies doesn't appear to be a possibility. In any case, expect the Cardinals to do something to upgrade the position.

The Cardinals can rely on their deep well of power arms to fill out their bullpen. Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist emerged in 2013 and should continue to play key roles in 2014. Martinez and Kelly will also be good bullpen candidates if they aren't in the rotation. Lefty Randy Choate and ground ball specialist Seth Maness will also be back, and Jason Motte will return after Tommy John surgery shut him down for the 2013 season. As effective as Mujica was this year, there's no reason for the Cardinals to overpay for his services, given their stockpile.

If nothing else, the Cardinals can improve by acquiring a shortstop who can hit even a little. There's also still room for them to improve on the defensive front, not only by replacing Beltran and perhaps Jay, but also by implementing more defensive shifts, one of the few areas where they're behind the rest of the game. The Cardinals limited their number of shifts in 2013 upon encountering resistance from some of their pitchers. They plan to be more aggressive in implementing shifts next year, which should meaningfully improve their defense.

If the Cardinals take a step backwards next season, it might be because their three top 2013 performers regress somewhat. Matt Carpenter, Wainwright and Molina all posted in excess of 5 WAR in 2013, and expecting them to repeat their 2013 showings may be asking a lot. Carpenter's 7.0 WAR season, in particular, likely represents a career peak, and he shouldn't be counted on to do that again.

That's the curse of being an excellent team, though — a 97-win season isn't easy to repeat. Still, the Cardinals have a star-studded roster, and a farm system that should be able to continue to deliver solid contributors after others depart.

That means the Cardinals don't have to be aggressive this offseason. They could play it safe, find an upgrade at shortstop, and get ready for 2014. If they do want to get ambitious, though, there are ways for them to do that, too, as the New York Post's Joel Sherman recently noted. Perhaps the Cardinals could upgrade by pursuing a big name like Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield — Ellsbury would represent a big upgrade over Jay, both offensively and defensively. (With the No. 31 pick in the 2014 draft and a deep farm system, they won't have to worry much about losing a pick by signing a player who has been extended a qualifying offer; they'll also likely be able to replace any draft pick they might lose with the one they'll get if another team signs Beltran.) The Cardinals could also trade Taveras or Adams for help elsewhere.

Somewhat more conservatively, the Cards could trade from their pitching stockpile to acquire a shortstop. The Indians, for example, will be looking for pitching this offseason, and they can offer Asdrubal Cabrera. Alexei Ramirez or Erick Aybar might also be possibilities.

In other words, the Cards have plenty of flexibility, and aside from the shortstop position, they can make moves proactively, rather than simply acquiring players to fill obvious needs. The Cardinals' core of stars (Wainwright, Molina, Carpenter, Holliday) and recent influx of cheap, high-quality young pitching (Miller, Wacha, Lynn, Martinez, Rosenthal, Siegrist, Kelly) should put them in an enviable position for years to come.

Minor Moves: Jones, Twins, Berry, Snyder, Wolf, Blackley

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Here are today’s outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…

  • The Orioles are placing lefty Chris Jones on their 40-man roster, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun tweets. Jones, 25, posted a 2.67 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 70 2/3 innings for Triple-A Norfolk this year. The move will prevent them from losing him to minor-league free agency.
  • Edgar Ibarra has been added to the Twins’ 40-man roster, the team announced today. The 24-year-old Venezuelan left-hander posted a 1.93 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 60 2/3 innings of relief between Double-Aand Triple-A this season. By adding Ibarra to the 40-man roster, the Twins ensure that he cannot be selected in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.
  • The Twins have also re-signed Wilkin Ramirez, Dan Rohlfing, Aaron Thompson, Jermaine Mitchell, Lester Oliveros, Doug Bernier and James Beresford to minor league contracts with invites to Spring Training, tweets MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Ramirez and Bernier each saw time with the big league club in 2013, and Oliveros was one of two pitchers received from the Tigers in exchange for Delmon Young in 2011.
  • The Red Sox announced that they have outrighted outfielder Quintin Berry and infielder Brandon Snyder off their 40-man roster. Both are now free agents after spending the majority of this past season at Triple-A. Snyder hit .261/.332/.454 with 10 homers in the minors, while Berry slashed just .191/.309/.257 with three homers and 30 steals in 34 tries at Triple-A.
  • Right-hander Ross Wolf has re-signed with the Rangers on a minor league contract with an invitation to 2014 Spring Training, the team announced. The 31-year-old posted a 4.15 ERA in 22 appearances (three starts) for Texas in 2013, averaging 4.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 47 2/3 innings. Wolf had been outrighted off the 40-man roster and cleared waivers before re-signing.
  • In other Rangers news, left-hander Travis Blackley was also outrighted off the 40-man roster and elected free agency. In 50 1/3 innings between the Rangers and Astros, compiling a 4.83 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.
  • The Padres announced that they have outrighted left-hander Tommy Layne to Triple-A Tucson. Layne, 29, pitched 8 2/3 innings of 2.08 ERA ball for the Padres in his second big league stint this season. He has a 4.50 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 704 career minor league innings between the Padres and Diamondbacks, who traded him to San Diego for cash considerations in the 2011-12 offseason. Layne was designated for assignment along with fellow lefty Colt Hynes to make roster space for Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland as they returned from the 60-day DL. Hynes has since been acquired by the Indians.

Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.

Hudson Has Offer From Braves; Other Teams Interested

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4:57pm: Eight teams have contacted Hudson, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Giants, Red Sox, A's and Rangers have all reached out in addition to the Braves, Indians and Royals.

12:30pm: Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets that close to 10 teams have already expressed interest in Hudson.

12:25pm: Not surprisingly, Tim Hudson won't be receiving a qualifying offer, but the Braves have already extended him a one-year offer to return for the 2014 season, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Bowman doesn't have the financial details of the offer beyond its one-year term, but he notes that the Indians and Royals have both already expressed interest in luring Hudson away from the Braves.

According to Bowman, Indians manager Terry Francona has already had a lengthy phone call with Hudson, and Royals manager Ned Yost plans to contact him later in the week. Hudson and agent Paul Cohen of TWC Sports have yet to make a counter offer to the Braves' proposed one-year pact.

Hudson is set to have a screw removed from his ankle this week — the final step in his recovery from a gruesome fracture suffered in late July when Eric Young stepped on his foot in a close play at first base. Hudson could be throwing off a mound within two weeks of the screw's removal, writes Bowman.

On the Brian McCann front, Bowman lists the Rangers as the early front-runners to sign the longtime Braves backstop as a free agent, though he notes that the Yankees and Red Sox are also expected to be in the mix. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes confirmed earlier today, McCann will receive a qualifying offer. He's a lock to reject that offer and hit the open market, though.

Orioles Decline Alexi Casilla’s Option

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The Orioles have declined their $3MM club option on infielder Alexi Casilla, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Casilla will instead receive a $200K buyout.

The 29-year-old switch-hitter batted just .214/.268/.295 in 62 games (125 plate appearances) in his only season with the Orioles. Baltimore claimed Casilla off waivers from the Twins last offseason and avoided arbitration with him by agreeing to a one-year, $1.7MM contract with a $3MM club option ($200K buyout) for the 2014 campaign.

Casilla has turned himself into a solid defender at second base over the past several seasons and can handle shortstop as well, but his complete lack of offense — he batted just .234/.278/.314 in 451 plate appearances from 2012-13 — likely limits him to a minor league deal this offseason.

13 Free Agents Receive Qualifying Offers

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The deadline to extend one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offers to impending free agents has passed, and 13 players received such offers:

Each of these 13 players will have one week to decide whether they wish to accept or reject the offer. In order to sign a player that rejects a qualifying offer, a team will have to forfeit a top draft pick. Because the first 11 picks are protected in this year's draft, the Astros, Marlins, Cubs, White Sox, Twins, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, Blue Jays and Mets will forfeit a second-round pick to sign a player who rejects a qualifying offer. All other teams will be forced to forfeit their first-round pick.

The player's former team does not receive the pick that is forfeited, but rather will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round. As it stands, the Yankees and Red Sox each have a chance to receive three extra first-round picks in 2014 should all three of their qualified free agents reject an offer and sign with a new team.

The 13 qualifying offers represent an increase over last offseason, when only nine players received the offer. None of those nine accepted the offer, though some — most notably Kyle Lohse — saw their market value heavily impacted by their ties to draft pick compensation.

Pirates Do Not Make Qualifying Offer To A.J. Burnett

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The Pirates did not extend a one-year, qualifying offer to A.J. Burnett, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter).

Burnett, 37 in January, pitched to a 3.30 ERA with 9.8 K/9 (the highest rate in the National League), 3.2 BB/9 and a 56.2 percent ground-ball rate in 191 innings in his second season with the Pirates. Burnett has publicly stated that his decision this offseason is between returning to the Pirates and retiring, so the Pirates likely felt that they didn't need to risk the $14.1MM salary. If he elects to pitch again, it's possible that the Pirates could work out a one-year deal at a lower rate, as I projected in my free agent profile of Burnett, predicting one year and $12MM to return to the Bucs.

Rangers Extend Qualifying Offer To Nelson Cruz

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MONDAY: The Rangers officially announced that they have issued a qualifying offer to Cruz.

WEDNESDAY: The Rangers will extend a one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer to free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports.  General manager Jon Daniels said earlier this month that such a move was likely to happen and now tells Grant that the qualifying offer is "a relatively easy decision" for the team. 

"We’d be happy to have him back on a one-year deal. And we’re not prohibited from continuing to talk to him while he sees what the market is. If he signs elsewhere, we get a draft pick that helps us as well," Daniels said.

Cruz is expected to reject the qualifying offer in search of a multiyear commitment after hitting .266/.327/.506 with 27 homers in 456 PA in 2013, roughly matching his average numbers since the start of the 2009 season.  His free agent market could be limited by the fact that Cruz is 33 years old, a defensive liability in right field and was suspended for 50 games for his connection to the Biogenesis PED scandal.  The draft pick compensation attached to his rejection of a qualifying offer will further limit Cruz's list of suitors, though that could potentially help the Rangers if they make an effort to re-sign him.

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