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Archives for November 2013

Royals To Make Qualifying Offer To Ervin Santana

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3:58pm: The Royals confirmed that they have made a qualifying offer, per Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter).

12:46pm: The Royals have indicated to Ervin Santana that he will receive a qualifying offer, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (on Twitter). The $14.1MM offer will allow the Royals to receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round should Santana reject the offer and sign elsewhere.

That's the most likely scenario for Santana, who rebounded from a disastrous 2012 season to turn in 211 innings of a 3.24 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. Santana figures to be one of the top three arms on the free agent market along with Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Garza, which led me to predict a five-year, $75MM contract for the righty on the open market in my free agent profile of him last month.

Reds Make Qualifying Offer To Choo, Not Arroyo

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3:31pm: Reds assistant director of media relations Jamie Ramsey confirms that Choo has received a qualifying offer and Arroyo has not.

3:22pm: MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports that the Reds have officially extended a qualifying offer to Shin-Soo Choo.

Choo, 31, batted .285/.423/.462 with 21 homers and 20 stolen bases in his lone season with the Reds. The Reds' decision to make him a qualifying offer comes as little surprise, given his status as one of the market's most highly regarded free agents (he ranked No. 3 on MLBTR's Top 50).

MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes projected a six-year, $100MM contract in his free agent profile for Choo, predicting that Choo's sky-high on-base percentage (he ranked fourth in MLB) and agent Scott Boras' negotiating skills would outweigh Choo's problems against left-handed pitching and defensive question marks.

1:36pm: The Reds will not make a qualifying offer to right-hander Bronson Arroyo, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The lack of a qualifying offer is good news for Arroyo and agent Terry Bross of Gaylord Sports Management, as interested teams won't be required to surrender a draft pick to obtain his services on the free agent market.

The $14.1MM value of the qualifying offer was too great a risk for the small-market Reds to take, writes Heyman. I agree with the thinking, as it seems there was a decent chance Arroyo would've accepted the offer, knowing what draft pick compensation would've done to his value on the open market.

Arroyo, 37 in February, topped 199 innings for the ninth consecutive season in 2013, posting a solid 3.79 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 202 innings. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes profiled Arroyo in September, predicting that the veteran innings eater would land a two-year, $24MM contract, provided the Reds didn't issue a qualifying offer.

Mariners Make Qualifying Offer To Kendrys Morales

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The Mariners have officially extended a qualifying offer to switch-hitting DH/first baseman Kendrys Morales, the team announced on Twitter.

The decision to extend a qualifying offer to Morales was met with surprise when it was first reported last month, but the report that Morales would decline the offer was questioned even more. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted that Morales would end up back with the Mariners on a two-year, $28MM contract in his free agent profile of the Cuban-born slugger last month.

Morales, 30, batted .277/.336/.449 with 23 homers for the Mariners this season — numbers that were a near-mirror image of his .273/.320/.467 batting line and 22 homers for the Angels in 2012.

Should Morales reject the $14.1MM offer and sign elsewhere, the Mariners would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. However, as a good but not elite bat who is primarily limited to designated hitter, I feel that the qualifying offer is particularly damaging to Morales. He and agent Scott Boras have a week to make an official decision on the offer.

Braves Decline Reed Johnson’s Option

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The Braves announced, via press release, that they have declined their $1.6MM club option for outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson will instead receive a $150K buyout and become a free agent.

Johnson, 37 in December, batted .244/.311/.341 in 136 plate appearances for the Braves in 2013. Though he didn't do much at the plate the versatile outfielder provided solid defense at all three outfield positions. He also posted respectable numbers against left-handed pitchers, slashing .291/.328/.345 — a trait he's shown throughout his entire career. Johnson's career .311/.366/.456 batting line against southpaws dwarfs his line against same-handed pitching.

Johnson's ability to play anywhere in the outfield and ability to hit left-handed pitching at a decent clip will likely allow him to latch on as a fourth outfielder/bench bat somewhere this offseason.

Brian McCann Receives Qualifying Offer

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2:40pm: The Braves have officially announced that McCann will receive a qualifying offer.

9:05am: The Braves will extend a qualifying offer to catcher Brian McCann, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has learned (Twitter link). The move doesn't come as a surprise, as McCann figures to be one of the top free agents available on the market this offseason and has no reason to consider accepting a one-year, $14.1MM offer.

McCann, who turns 30 in February, returned from injury to bat .256/.336/.461 with 20 homers in just 402 plate appearances — his sixth straight season of 20+ homers. Power such as McCann's is rare for a catcher, and his .277/.350/.473 career batting line is a testament to his offensive prowess.

In his free agent profile for McCann, Tim predicted that an American League team would be comfortable going to five years and $80MM for McCann. By wins above replacement, McCann has likely justified that commitment, averaging 3.0 rWAR and 3.8 fWAR over the past six seasons despite a pair of injury-shortened campaigns. A move to the AL, where he could see some time at DH, could allow him to play in more games.

Assuming McCann turns down the qualifying offer, any new team looking to sign him would have to punt a top draft pick. The first 11 picks are protected in this year's draft, meaning those teams would have to forfeit a second-round selection. All other teams would be required to sacrifice a first-round pick. Should he reject the offer and sign with a new club, as many expect, the Braves would receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round.

A’s Won’t Extend Any Qualifying Offers

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The Athletics have announced that they will not extend qualifying offers to free agents Bartolo Colon and Grant Balfour. Neither player will require a new team to sacrifice a draft pick this winter. The move isn't surprising, given the $14.1MM value of a qualifying offer.

Colon would've been more likely to earn a qualifying offer than Balfour. The 40-year-old enjoyed a dominant season in which he pitched to a 2.65 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 190 1/3 innings for the A's. Colon earned a $3MM base salary and totaled another $2.4MM via incentives for games started and innings pitched, so the $14.1MM value would've been a substantial increase over his 2013 salary. Still, he projects to earn a healthy increase from that $5.4MM total on the open market. Colon and the A's have expressed mutual interest, and Colon feels that he can pitch for another three seasons.

Balfour, 36 in December, saved 38 games for the A's in 2013 en route to a sparkling 2.59 ERA with 10.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, earning his first All-Star berth in the process. I pegged his open-market value at $18MM over two years in my free agent profile of Balfour, though that should come with the caveat that there are more closers than jobs availble this winter. If he's left standing in January, Balfour won't be able to land that type of cash, so it would behoove him and agent Keith Miller of ACES to find a deal early on in the free agent process.

Marlins Claim Jimmy Paredes From Astros

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The Marlins announced that they have claimed infielder/outfielder Jimmy Paredes off waivers from the Astros. Miami's 40-man roster now stands at 33 players.

Paredes, who turns 25 at the end of this month, batted just .192/.231/.248 with a homer and four steals in 135 plate appearances for Houston this season but was much better in the minor leagues. In 86 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City, Paredes slashed .287/.345/.462 with eight home runs and 16 stolen bases. Paredes spent most of his time in right field, but he graded out poorly at the position per UZR and DRS. He also has experience at second base and third base.

Napoli, Drew, Ellsbury Receive Qualifying Offers; Saltalamacchia Does Not

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2:10pm: Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington has confirmed to reporters, including Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com, that Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury will receive qualifying offers (Twitter link). Saltalamacchia will not receive a qualifying offer, according to Cherington.

Ellsbury, MLBTR's No. 2 ranked free agent, was a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer. The other three weren't as certain, but the Red Sox now stand to receive three extra first-round picks if this trio signs elsewhere.

Drew signed a one-year, $9.5MM contract with the Red Sox looking to rebuild his value, and he did just that. The shortstop enjoyed a strong age-30 campaign, batting .255/.333/.443 with 13 homers and playing standout defense at shortsop. He seems likely to pursue a multiyear deal on the free agent market this winter and could be in line for three to four years at an average annual salary north of $10MM.

MLBTR's Tim Dierkes profiled Ellsbury earlier this morning, noting that he's an ownership-level decision that could be signed despite a GM's protest. Tim projected a whopping seven-year, $150MM contract for Ellsbury, expecting agent Scott Boras to be able to convince at least one Major League owner that Ellsbury deserves more than Carl Crawford received three offseasons ago.

9:18am: WEEI.com's Alex Speier agrees with Dierkes' report and adds that Mike Napoli will receive a qualifying offer. Napoli batted .259/.360/.482 with 23 home runs this season, silencing doubts that the avascular necrosis (AVN) discovered in each of his hips last season would lead to an early decline for the slugger. Following a strong season that proved his health, Napoli is a lock to reject that offer and test the market, though he could still re-sign with Boston.

Napoli will be one the premier first basemen and sources of right-handed pop on this year's free agent market, with Dierkes suggesting a three-year, $42MM offer is attainable on the open market. With the qualifying offer attached, any team that selects outside the Top 11 in the 2014 draft will have to forfeit a first-round pick to sign him (the Top 11 would forfeit a second-round selection). In turn, the Red Sox would receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round.

9:07am: The Red Sox are unlikely to extend a qualifying offer to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has learned (Twitter link).

Saltalamacchia, 29, posted the best season of his career in 2013, slashing .273/.338/.466 with 14 homers in a career-high 470 plate appearances. He also tied a career best by playing in 121 games for the second consecutive season.

Tim projected a four-year, $36MM contract for Saltalamacchia in free agency this season, although that was under the assumption that he would be tied to draft pick compensation. If Saltalamacchia does not receive a qualifying offer from Boston, he could surpass that projection, as teams would not be required to surrender a first- or second-round draft pick in order to sign him.

Brewers Claim Elian Herrera

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The Brewers announced that they have claimed infielder/outfielder Elian Herrera off waivers from the Dodgers (Twitter link).

Herrera, who turns 29 this Februrary, received just eight big league plate appearances for the Dodgers this season but racked up 214 PAs in 67 games for the 2012 Dodgers. The Dominican utility-man has a .251/.336/.328 in his brief Major League career, and he's totaled at least 30 innings in all three outfield spots, at second base and at third base.

In 197 career games at the Triple-A level, the switch-hitting Herrera is a .300/.371/.420 hitter with 12 homers and 28 stolen bases. This move brings the Brewers' 40-man roster to 36 and drops the Dodgers' 40-man roster to 32, the teams announced.

Rockies, Matt Belisle Exercise Mutual Option

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The Rockies and right-hander Matt Belisle have each exercised their half of Belisile's $4.25MM mutual option for 2014, according to MLB.com's Thomas Harding (on Twitter).

Belisle, 33, appeared in more than 70 games for his fourth straight season with the Rockies in 2013, pitching to a 4.32 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. Belisle struggled to strand runners and also suffered through a .321 batting average on balls in play, leading to an inflated ERA. His FIP (3.03), xFIP (2.99) and SIERA (2.98) all point to him as an excellent rebound candidate in 2014.

It's rare that both parties exercise their half of a mutual option, but the Rockies need bullpen help with Rafael Betancourt going down as a result of Tommy John surgery, and Belisle may have struggled to find a guarantee greater than $4.25MM on the open market due to his inflated ERA. He will rejoin a bullpen that currently projects to have Rex Brothers as the closer, though Rockies senior VP of Major League operations Bill Geivett has made it known that his team is prioritizing an impact reliever in free agency this offseason.

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