Archives for 2013

Brian McCann Could Net $100MM Deal

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2013 at 1:02pm CDT

With strong interest from several big-budget American League clubs, catcher Brian McCann is looking at a perfect free agent storm that could net him a deal reaching $100MM, reports CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman. Soon to be thirty years of age, McCann is represented by B.B. Abbott.

The primary basis for Heyman's report is the fact that four clubs with a history of inking nine-figure deals could be chasing McCann. Each of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers could make a major upgrade by adding the left-handed-swinging backstop, says Heyman. He also names the Rockies and Giants as possibly interested clubs, though both seem less likely to make a real run.

One executive did tell Heyman that McCann could end up with multiple offers in the same range of around five years and $80MM, forcing him simply to decide where he'd like to play. But Heyman argues that the market alignment makes a "blow-away offer" a distinct possibility.

Choo Seeking To Exceed Werth’s $126MM Contract

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2013 at 12:46pm CDT

Outgoing Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo is being shopped above the seven-year, $126MM contract inked by Jayson Werth with the Nationals before the 2011 season, reports ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). The Scott Boras client, who is unquestionably one of the game's most attractive open market commodities, has long been rumored to be looking for nine figures, though a report yesterday said he was asking more in the $90MM range.

The Werth comparison does make sense, so far as it goes. Both Werth and Choo hit the market in their early thirties, coming off of high-OBP, mid-140-OPS+ campaigns. Werth has shown somewhat more pop, while Choo reaches base like few others. Each is regarded as a solid glove in the corner outfield. But as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained in profiling Choo, the Werth contract has been viewed as a non-precedential deal. Hence, he predicts, Choo will probably get something more like six years and $100MM. Of course, contextual perception is important; with Werth coming off of an outstanding year, Boras may be able to argue that the contract is hardly the albatross it has been characterized as.

Whether or not Boras can land a Werth-sized deal, there is little question that Choo is hitting free agency at an opportune time. The remaining corner outfield market is thin, Choo returned to his earlier-career levels of performance last year, and new TV money could provide a boost in salaries around the game.

Nationals Willing To Listen To Offers On Denard Span

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2013 at 12:20pm CDT

Officials of competing clubs say that the Nationals appear willing to listen to offers on center fielder Denard Span, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The 29-year-old came to Washington via trade from the Twins, who received pitching prospect Alex Meyer in the deal.

Featuring stellar defense and a league-average bat (.279/.327/.380, 97 wRC+ in 2013), Span also swiped twenty bases last year. Most importantly, he comes with a very attractive contract that would fit in most teams' budgets, making Span a widely attractive trade target. He will be paid $6.5MM next year under the deal, which inludes a 2015 club option at $9MM with only a $500k buyout.

Presumably, Nats' GM Mike Rizzo would only seriously entertain the possibility of dealing Span if he wanted to clear room for a major acquisition. Though Heyman mentions the possibility of the Nats chasing Jacoby Ellsbury, it is also worth bearing in mind that the club could hypothetically add a corner outfielder and shift Bryce Harper to center. At this point, though, it is probably unwise to read too much into the report, as Rizzo could just be gauging how the market values his leadoff man.

Huntington: Qualifying Offer For Burnett Did Not Fit Budget

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2013 at 11:44am CDT

In an interview last night, Pirates GM Neal Huntington told David Todd of 970 ESPN (audio link) that the club did not make A.J. Burnett a qualifying offer because it could not afford the $14.1MM hit to its 2014 budget. (Hat tip to Bucs Dugout, where MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth discussed the impact of Huntington's words from the Pirates' perspective.)

Though the Bucs will increase payroll, said Huntington, a qualifying offer-level salary occupies a "significant chunk of your payroll" for low-budget clubs. Comparing the Pirates to teams like the Rays and A's, he explained that building a winner in a small market is more complicated than just getting players at reasonably sub-market rates:

"It's not where we value A.J. Burnett, it's how do we build a championship team in the big picture. And as we look to fill some of the other gaps that we have, or we look to upgrade some of the other spots we feel we'd like to upgrade and should upgrade if possible, we felt that $14MM in one player was a bit steep for us."

Huntington sounded less than sanguine about the odds of a return, saying only that Pittsburgh is "still kind of trying to keep that door open" while declining to answer whether discussions were active. After earning every bit of his $16.5MM salary last year, Burnett would apparently need to accept a significant salary cut to don gold and black again in 2014. (After correctly forecasting that the Bucs would not extend a QO, MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted that Burnett would ultimately take a salary cut to $12MM on a one-year deal.)

On the other hand, there are certainly strategic explanations for these comments. Burnett may have burned some leverage by saying he'd either come back to Pittsburgh or retire, perhaps leaving more room for the Buccos to try and bust down the rate. As Huntington discussed in the interview, his club's narrow margin for error makes every dollar count, and any savings on the Burnett deal could make a big difference in the club's other offseason plans.

Huntington went on to criticize the QO system, noting that the Yankees and Red Sox made six of the thirteen offers. The system "didn't really do what it was intended to do," said Huntington, offering his opinion that the Indians and Royals probably hope that their offerees — Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana — decline.

On the issue of national TV money, Huntington noted that, contrary to the oft-repeated line, "it's not $25MM to every team." That is an average, he said: the team does not yet have its precise distribution, and the Commissioner could hold back some dollars for league-wide initiatives.

Either way, according to Huntington, small market teams won't get any relative advantage from the new money. Todd suggested that the high payroll clubs would begin to have luxury tax issues if they spent up their new cash, resulting in a net benefit to small-market clubs. But Huntington said the luxury tax "hasn't been that big of a drag on those [teams] that have gone over it," at least when they can avoid too many years in a row above the line.

Future Salary Obligations In Context, Part II

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2013 at 9:57am CDT

On Wednesday, I pulled together some salary information from Cot's Baseball Contracts in an attempt to give some context to teams' overall future salary commitments. Check out that post for background, and bear in mind we are only talking about post-2014 payroll. With the benefit of receiving comments and thinking about what I wrote, I decided to utilize the information in a few more ways.

First, as I noted in a comment, simply summing the future obligations only tells part of the story. A better, more complete analysis would discount later-in-time salary to a present value. Dave Cameron had a great piece recently on Fangraphs discussing the way in which contracts for elite free agents have tended to tack on additional years at the back end rather than increasing average annual value for a shorter term. As he noted, baseball payrolls have grown at about 3.5% on average over the last ten years. That kind of inflation — in concert with the time-value of money — makes a future dollar less valuable than a present one.

The difficulty remains in arriving at an appropriate rate by which to discount the future obligations. While I am not equipped to undertake that complicated and inexact task, it occurred to me that there is another option: simply chart out the different possible rates to show what would occur at a given percentage. I chose to use a range between zero and ten percent because opening day payrolls have increased by around 5-6% over the last two years and because the reported infusion of TV money could theoretically lead to a jump in salaries. Bear in mind, though, that the higher end of the scale is exceedingly unlikely — it is a ten-year period, after all — and is really included for illustrative purposes.

Here are the results, which show how different discount rates would impact each teams' future obligations. You'll need to open the image to view it.

[All numbers are in millions. An explanation on the columns: "x% discount" shows the present value of a club's future obligations at a given discount rate; "sum saved" shows the difference between the non-discounted obligations and the value as discounted; and "pct saved" shows the relative impact on each team's obligations at each rate. And I'll note that I updated the information to include the Rangers' recent extension of Martin Perez.]

Remember, there is nothing inherently good or bad about taking on, as opposed to avoiding, future obligations. And there are good reasons to backload, or frontload, those commitments. This is just a tool to help understand the numbers. Click below for a closer look at a few salient aspects of this chart, and some additional team-by-team information and observations.

The most apparent impact of discounting applies, naturally, to teams with the most payroll to be discounted. That does not mean that low-obligation clubs don't care — after all, a low-inflation environment would increase the relative future burden on heavily-committed teams, to their competitve disadvantage — but their pocketbooks are relatively safe from the direct effects. In absolute terms, discounting most diminishes the present value of the down-the-line salary obligations of these clubs:

We'll keep our focus on clubs that have enough in future commitments to make the discount rate bite. You'll note that, as I mentioned in the first post, a greater discount — which, for our purposes, means an expectation of greater salary inflation — would ease the burden on teams whose obligations extend furthest into the future.

First, let's compare the Rays — who have the highest present value reduction, by percentage, upon discounting — with the Jays, who have one of the lowest. Both teams have about $140MM in post-2014 commitments, but look what the discount rate does to their present value as we increase it:

Clearly, unless we experience salary deflation, the Rays' obligations fall short of those borne by their division foes from up north. Likewise, going in the opposite direction, notice how the Reds' $300MM tab begins to creep down towards the $230MM owed by the Phillies as the discount rate is edged upwards:

Discounting is just one way in which the actual structure of the obligations — as opposed to a simple lump sum — makes a difference. Dollars that must be paid sooner cost more, but they also leave the books quicker. More money committed to fewer players increases risk, but (at least hopefully) reflects higher-quality assets. Likewise, a greater overall average annual value means that more roster spots remain to be filled, with less money available to do so.

To help continue exploring these comparisons, I thought it would be useful to put together a few more graphs, with teams grouped by division. None of these figures are discounted, since as noted above I do not wish to stake out a specific discount rate. First, let's look at future obligations on a division-by-division basis:

It is certainly interesting to see the geographical spread, though a big off-season spree along the I-95 corridor could change things pretty quickly.

Now, let's look at each team by division, in descending order of total divisional obligations. I'll offer two charts with each division, the first one showing total obligations by year, and the second showing each club's average commitments per player as well as the average annual value of all its contracts. (Option buyouts count in the guaranteed salary, but do not count as a year for determining AAV.)

NL West

The Dodgers' massive commitments between 2015-18 ramp down rather suddenly, though a Clayton Kershaw extension could change that. The Rockies have one of the game's highest per-player commitments, but Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are both elite players with plenty of prime years left.

NL Central

The Reds have the longest set of commitments in baseball thanks to the Joey Votto contract. Though the Cubs have a lot of money owed to some fairly risky assets (Edwin Jackson, Starlin Castro, Jorge Soler, Anthony Rizzo), the club maintains a low AAV. Pittsburgh has one of the cleaner sheets in the game; even better, most of its scheduled outflows will be directed to Andrew McCutchen.

AL West

The Angels' commitments look imposing when one considers the age and recent history of their most expensive players (Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols), especially in conjunction with high commitment-per-player and AAV marks. The Rangers have a well-diversified and widely-spread set of obligations compared to most big-spending clubs. Essentially all of the M's commitments go to Felix Hernandez. Looking at the chart, it would be tough to pick out the team that actually won this division the past two seasons.

AL Central

With a series of massive contracts, the Tigers have the league's highest average commitment per player — and that is before new contracts for Miguel Cabrera and/or Max Scherzer come into play. The Twins and Indians provide an interesting contrast between two teams with approximately the same sum of future payroll promises.

AL East

These graphs show again the stark contrast between the Blue Jays' and Rays' obligations. Boston's future obligations look remarkably similar to Tampa's in size and structure, and each has a franchise player (Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria, respectively) that accounts for most of the hit. Given New York's massive spending capacity, its drastic payroll drop-off affords ample opportunity for backloading deals to free agents.

NL East

We've heard before that the Phillies' big contracts won't prevent them from spending and contending, and these charts show why that could yet be the case. Though the club carries a steep AAV, it will shed salary reasonably quickly. The Braves, dealing with the B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla deals, have perhaps more in common with the Phillies than one might think. Each will try to work through near-term financial crunches of similar proportion (in relation to their likely payroll limits) by relying on a strong organizational asset: money for the Phils and young talent for the Braves.

That's all I have to offer at the moment. I will be interested to see what other observations are reached in the comments.

Indians Unlikely To Re-Sign Hurlers Jimenez, Kazmir, Smith, Albers

By Jeff Todd | November 9, 2013 at 8:51am CDT

The Indians' best free agent pitchers — Ubaldo Jimenez, Scott Kazmir, Joe Smith, and Matt Albers — are all expected to be lured away by better offers to throw elsewhere in spite of the club's interest in retaining them, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Here is Hoynes' take on that group of arms, and other news out of Cleveland:

Jimenez is expected, unsurprisingly, to reject the Indians' $14.1MM qualifying offer. MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted that Jimenez would be able to find three years and $39MM on the open market, and could possibly even score an Edwin Jackson-like four-and-$50MM+ deal.
Kazmir and Smith are both seeking more years than the Indians want to give. Cleveland wants to do a one-year deal with the former and would go to two for the latter, but they are seeking at least one additional guaranteed season.
GM Chris Antonetti feels the club is protected if these pitchers find greener pastures, however, noting that the organization has "seven quality major league alternatives in the starting rotation with Justin Masterson, Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister, Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer." Nevertheless, a veteran starter and pen pieces are definitely on Antonetti's wish list, says Hoynes. The club has already made contact with Tim Hudson, and Hoynes lists a series of other possible targets.
As for the relief corps, Hoynes says to expect an internal candidate — most likely, Cody Allen or Bryan Shaw — to be tapped as the closer. As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth has explained, Allen looks to profile as a worthy replacement for outgoing ninth inning man Chris Perez. Antonetti said that the team has "some talented pitchers in the back end of the bullpen." An opportunistic move on one of the closer types that are available in free agency is certainly possible, but seems not to rank atop the club's priorities.
Indeed, a pricey spend on a closer may not make sense for a club that — according to Hoynes — projects to maintain a payroll in the $80MM range. With about $70MM already wrapped up after consider the team's arb-eligibles, Antonetti doesn't have a ton of room to work with. Though last year's free agent binge was made possible by ownership's TV network sale, Hoynes adds, the anticipated $25MM national broadcasting cash infusion will be enjoyed by every other club as well. It is worth noting, also, that the annual salaries of both of last year's big free agent signees — Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn — take big jumps this year ($4MM and $6.5MM, respectively), which accounts for a substantial part of the increased payroll pressure.
Finally, look for the Indians to open discussions with Justin Masterson about an extension, says Hoynes. As he notes in the piece, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently opined that it would probably take a five year pact somewhere between the $65MM given John Danks and Jered Weaver's $85MM.

Quick Hits: Jackson, Cubs, Antonetti, Drew, Hanigan

By Mark Polishuk | November 9, 2013 at 2:41am CDT

Theo Epstein admitted that the Cubs "got a little ahead of ourselves" in signing Edwin Jackson to a four-year, $52MM contract last winter. In response to a fan's question at a season ticket-holders event in Chicago, Epstein said the team “didn’t fully understand the scope of our situation, the overall situation with the timing of our business plan, the timing of our facilities and the timing of our baseball plan." (hat tip to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). The Jackson signing was seen a surprise move for the rebuilding Cubs and it hasn't worked out thus far, as Jackson posted a 4.98 ERA over 175 1/3 IP in 2013.

Here are some more items as we head into the weekend…

Epstein told reporters (including MLB.com's Carrie Muskat) that he expects Jackson to be a positive for the Cubs next season, though he noted that the team plans to add more "quality" starting pitching this winter. "Every starting pitcher we acquire is someone we hope is starting Game 1 of the World Series for us," Epstein said.
The Indians' biggest needs this winter are bullpen pieces and a complementary bat, Tribe general manager Chris Antonetti tells Jim Bowden and Casey Stern on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link).
Scott Boras scoffed at projections that Stephen Drew would only find a three-year contract this winter, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman writes. "A three-year deal, for a 30-year-old free agent, really? Are these writers aware of what Elvis Andrus signed for?", Boras asked. The Andrus comparison isn't as entirely outlandish as it first appears, since Andrus' eight-year, $120MM extension with the Rangers is only guaranteed for four years and $62MM since Andrus has opt-out clauses. Still, even that price tag seems quite high — MLBTR's Tim Dierkes predicted Drew for a four-year, $48MM deal this winter and that was with reservations about the fourth year and the draft pick compensation attached to Drew's free agency.
Reds catcher Ryan Hanigan could be a better catching option for 2014 than Jarrod Saltalamacchia even aside from the financial considerations, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron opines (Twitter links). Hanigan actually has a higher career WAR than Saltalamacchia (8.3 to 6.9) and could be available in a trade, while "Salty" could cost a team around $36MM in free agency.
The Dodgers should at least consider trading Yasiel Puig, ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon argues. He would certainly net more in a deal than any club's higher-priced outfielders and the Dodgers could be selling high on Puig since it's unclear whether his style of play will age well.
The Angels don't have much payroll room to make big changes for 2014 but MLB.com's Tracy Ringolsby thinks the Halos might only need a few tweaks to contend.
The Tigers aren't likely to re-sign Ramon Santiago, MLive.com's Chris Iott reports, as the team has younger and cheaper utility infield options available. Santiago, 34, has played for Detroit since 2006 and spent 10 seasons overall with the Tigers as a backup or part-time starter in the middle infield.

Beltran Will Reject Qualifying Offer; Wants 3-4 Years

By Mark Polishuk | November 9, 2013 at 2:28am CDT

Carlos Beltran is looking for a three- or four-year contract and will thus turn down the Cardinals' one-year, $14.1MM qualifying offer, Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown reports. Rejecting the qualifying offer will likely mean the end of Beltran's tenure in St. Louis as the Cards aren't likely to meet Beltran's demands when they have younger (and cheaper) outfield options like star prospect Oscar Taveras.

Beltran said during the summer that he hoped to play three or four more seasons, so it makes sense that he would look for a contract that would cover the home stretch of his career and capitalize on his strong performance in both the regular season and postseason. Though Beltran turns 37 next April, there is enough demand for his services that he could find more than two years. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles have already been linked to Beltran this offseason and Brown reports that six teams have "varying degrees of interest" in the veteran slugger. Brown figures the Mets, Phillies and Rangers are also possible suitors, plus any other teams who miss out on Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo Choo.

As MLBTR's Steve Adams noted in his Free Agent Profile of Beltran, players of Beltran's age rarely score contracts of three years or more, and predicted that Beltran would sign a two-year, $30MM deal. Enough big-market teams are connected to Beltran that a larger deal could be possible, though the draft pick compensation attached to Beltran once he turns down the qualifying offer will also turn some clubs off.

East Notes: Napoli, Phillies, Marlins, Anthopoulos

By Mark Polishuk | November 9, 2013 at 1:38am CDT

The Braves, Mets, Yankees and Red Sox have each received team-centric news posts today on MLBTR, so it's time to collect up more news from around both the NL and AL East…

Mike Napoli is such a good fit for the Red Sox and in Boston that the club needs to re-sign him, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald opines. It was reported earlier today that Napoli will test the market, though the Sox have already offered him a multiyear deal.
If the Red Sox signed Carlos Beltran, however, they wouldn't necessarily need Napoli, John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes. Beltran could play left field, causing a few lineup shifts that would settle on Daniel Nava as Napoli's replacement at first base.
Center field is the most logical place for the Phillies to add offense, according to David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, so the Phils should pursue someone like Curtis Granderson as an upgrade over Ben Revere.
Giancarlo Stanton is a "pie-in-the-sky target" for the Phillies, CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury writes. A somewhat more realistic trade option could be Mark Trumbo, though Salisbury notes that the Phils lack the young pitching that the Angels want in return. The Halos have been linked to Kyle Kendrick in the past, so Salisbury opines that Kendrick could be part of a Trumbo trade package.
Speaking of Stanton, Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill again reiterated that the slugger isn't available for trade offers, Hill tells MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Hill says the team is having "an ongoing discussion" about approaching Stanton with a long-term extension offer.
The Marlins' maximum payroll is expected to be in the low-to-mid-$40MM range, Frisaro reports. This is a slight increase over Miami's $38MM payroll from 2013.
The Blue Jays haven't been very active in free agency under Alex Anthopoulos' watch but the Toronto general manager tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca that this could change this winter. "It seems like with all the different things we’re looking to do, half of the scenarios are in free agency, half of the scenarios are in trade," Anthopoulos said. He feels the Jays also still have enough minor league depth to offer in trades, though the farm system was thinned by last offseason's blockbuster deals.
It doesn't make sense for the Orioles to shop J.J. Hardy, MASNsports.com's Steve Melewski argues, since Hardy's importance to the O's is even greater in the wake of Manny Machado's injury.
In East division news from earlier today, MLBTR's Matt Swartz broke down Chris Davis' arbitration case, the Nationals could use their minor leaguers to acquire a starting pitcher, ESPN's Buster Olney discussed the Red Sox and the David Price trade market, the Yankees aren't interested in Ervin Santana but are prioritizing Masahiro Tanaka,

Braves Notes: Uggla, Hudson, McCann, Trades

By Mark Polishuk | November 9, 2013 at 12:50am CDT

Here's the latest on the Braves from David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution…

The Braves could move Dan Uggla if they can find a team willing to pay roughly a quarter of the $26MM remaining owed to the second baseman over the next two seasons Tyler Pastornicky, Tommy La Stella and Ramiro Pena would all compete for the 2B job in Spring Training, though I'd guess the Braves would want to bring in a more established second baseman.
The Braves offered Tim Hudson a one-year deal that, even with incentives, was worth less than the $9MM than he earned in each of the previous four seasons. They never considered making Hudson a qualifying offer since the $14.1MM price was too rich for a 38-year-old coming off a severely broken ankle. While the Braves want Hudson back, they're just one of at least nine teams interested in the veteran righty and the healthy market could net Hudson a two-year, $24MM deal.
O'Brien would "be shocked" if Brian McCann received a $100MM contract and thinks the catcher will receive something akin to a five-year, $75MM deal. Given the big-market clubs interested in McCann's services, there have been rumors that he would indeed fetch such a nine-figure contract.
The Braves' payroll is expected to rise from $90MM to around $100MM, which isn't enough for the club to obtain a top-tier ace in free agency. To add a veteran to their young staff, O'Brien wonders if Atlanta could take a chance on a former ace like Roy Halladay if Hudson leaves.
The team has been hesitant to trade top prospects in recent years and O'Brien doesn't see that changing, so the likes of Christian Bethancourt or Lucas Sims wouldn't be moved in a potential deal for David Price or Max Scherzer.
There isn't any talk in the Braves organization of exploring trades involving Evan Gattis.

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