Yankees Plan To Spend Big On 2014-15 Int’l Market
FEBRUARY 12: In a substantial update to his original story on the topic, Scout.com's Kiley McDaniel breaks down the latest on the Yankees' July 2 spending plans.
First, McDaniel explains that the club's initial strategy was to reach agreement with a group of six players on the same day earlier in the winter. (The league's spending caps continue to drive the agreement timeline earlier, requiring teams to make larger commitments, notes McDaniel.) About $12MM was verbally committed at that point, spread amongst youngsters Dermis Garcia (a Domincan third baseman), Nelson Gomez (same), Juan De Leon (a Dominican center fielder), Jonathan Amundaray (a Venezuelan outfielder), Chris Torres (a Dominican shortstop), and Diego Castillo (a Venezuelan shortstop).
Other teams, too, are rumored to have struck verbal agreements with various players, as McDaniel details. But with several well-regarded talents still purportedly available, sources say that New York may now be planning a "second phase" that could bring the total spend as high as $20MM.
FEBRUARY 7: In an effort to replenish a bleak farm system, the Yankees are preparing to "spend wildly" on the international free agent market this summer, industry sources tell Andrew Marchand and Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com. Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com reported in late December that New York was planning to incur penalties by spending $12MM to $15MM on the approaching 2014-15 international signing period. The new signing season, which kicks off (as always) on July 2, is believed by many to offer a particularly strong crop of talent.
The Yankees are allotted just over $2MM to spend on international free agents this summer, but the ESPNNewYork.com duo reports that the club may spend a staggering $18MM in bonuses as they look to restock their minor league ranks with high-upside talent. Such an expenditure would come with the harshest of penalties laid out in the newest CBA; the Yankees would pay a 100 percent tax on their overage and would not be allowed to sign a player for more than $250K in the following international signing period. While those measures are undoubtedly harsh, they haven't stopped the Cubs and Rangers from spending more than $8MM each on international free agents during the current signing period.
Marchand and Matthews continue by stating that one reason behind the potential spending spree is the fear of an eventual international draft that will remove such tactics as a possibility. While the international draft talks have reportedly been tabled until after the 2016 season, implementing such a big spending strategy in 2014-15 could potentially allow the Yankees to employ the tactic twice more before the draft might become a reality. (In my mind, seeing teams pursue such a tactic may only enhance the industry's desire for an international draft.)
General manager Brian Cashman wouldn't comment on the team's spending plans, but he did go on record as saying that it is "certainly our prerogative" to spend more than the allotted amount. One member of the Yankees organization offered the following anonymous quote:
"We consider it a strategic option. Whether we play it this year hasn't been decided. At some point I would imagine we would. It might make sense. One of the things that is looming is the [international] draft and once that happens, we have the same circumstances as in the U.S."
Reactions To A.J. Burnett Signing
Today's signing of free agent starter A.J. Burnett by the Phillies (one year, $16MM, plus a mutual option) brings to an end a brief-but-interesting period of a fascinating free agent signing class. Long expected either to re-sign with the Pirates or instead retire, the 37-year-old threw a wrench into an already-straggling pitching market when it was revealed that he would not only return for another year, but would be open to alternative destinations. Having re-established himself as a top-end arm, but being available on a short-term deal, Burnett further downgraded the market outlook for draft-compensation-bound starters Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana. But by signing with the Phils, who had not figured to be in play for Jimenez or Santana, Burnett leaves the market much as he found it — albeit further slowed, perhaps. (Indeed, with Matt Garza going to another relatively unexpected landing spot with the Brewers, those hurlers may now be in a better position, timing notwithstanding.) Ultimately, the Phillies proved to be every bit the wild card I suggested they might be at the outset of the off-season, but in some respects functioned to restore the rest of the market to expectations.
- Of course, that is not to say that Burnett's signing is of little moment. To the contrary, it has important implications — in particular, for both of MLB's Pennsylvania-based franchises. As Ben Lindbegh of Baseball Prospectus writes, the Pirates may have learned a difficult lesson by failing to made Burnett a qualifying offer. Rejecting the hypotheses that the club did not want to sign him or was genuinely unable to do so financially, Lindbergh opines that the Pittsburgh likely mistakenly felt it would be readily able to get him back for less than the $14.1MM QO.
- Pittsburgh GM Neal Huntington weighed in again on the qualifying offer decision, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports (Twitter links). Huntington acknowledged that such an offer arguably made quite a bit of sense from a "value standpoint." But, he explained, "the reality is in 10-15 markets a qualifying offer, if accepted, becomes a large chunk of payroll." As Huntington has stated previously, the team did not feel that it could take a $14.1MM payroll hit for Burnett.
- According to Huntington (links to Twitter, via Sawchik), Burnett "informed us it was family-based. The player made a decision to be closer to home." Declining to disclose whether the club made a competitive offer — he said that question was better posed to Burnett and his agent — Huntington said that "A.J. would have had the biggest single impact of any single move we made this off-season."
- From the Phillies' perspective, the deal runs the club's payroll up to approximately $189MM, a new club record, says Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). Though the final tally is somewhat unclear, that means that Philadelphia could well approach or exceed MLB's $189MM luxury cap. As WEEI.com's Alex Speier has explained, the impact of going over that mark comes not just in the tax owed on overages, but in sacrificing the ability to participate in revenue-sharing refunds. Even if the Phils remain under the $189MM level on Opening Day, moreover, the cap could play a role in how the club weighs mid-season moves.
- Burnett's substantial salary would hinder his trade value if the Phillies end up looking to move him, tweets ESPN.com's Buster Olney. The newly-reported inclusion of a limited no-trade clause, likewise, represents a barrier to such a possibility and could substantially limit Burnett's market.
- Several commentators have weighed in positively on the deal on the Phillies' end. CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman, for instance, argues that the signing makes better sense of the club's earlier moves to sign veterans like Carlos Ruiz, Marlon Byrd, and Roberto Hernandez in a bid to make a playoff push. As Seidman notes, most of those deals have the added benefit of not adding long-term money to the books. MLB.com's Richard Justice offers that Burnett joins a cast of veterans who still have plenty of talent, and could help push the team into contention.
- On the flip side, the deal could be seen as throwing good money after bad given the club's aging roster. In the view of ESPN.com's Keith Law (Insider link), Burnett looks to represent solid value at a one-year commitment of $16MM. But, he says, Philadelphia was the wrong team to take on that big salary. Even assuming that Cole Hamels is mostly healthy — he is reportedly dealing with shoulder and biceps discomfort and will likely not quite be ready for Opening Day — Law argues that the club still looks like a .500 outfit. And the Phillies cannot take full advantage of Burnett's ability to induce grounders, says Law, because they field a below-average defensive infield and do not employ an analytics-based infield alignment strategy like that utilized by the Pirates.
Astros Outright Brett Wallace
JANUARY 12: Wallace has cleared waivers and been outrighted, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com, who notes that Wallace will take part in big league camp.
JANUARY 6: The Astros have designated Brett Wallace for assignment to make roster space for newly signed pitcher Jerome Williams, the club announced via press release. Once the game's 27th overall prospect, Wallace never found sustained success in Houston.
Playing the corner infield (mostly first base) over four seasons with the Astros, Wallace never earned more than 379 plate appearances in a season and accumulated a .242/.313/.391 slash (including 29 home runs) in 1,077 plate appearances. Last year, he received 285 plate appearances and put up a .221/.284/.431 line, striking out over 100 times while drawing just 18 walks. (His 36.5% strikeout rate was the worst in the league amongst players with at least 150 plate appearances.)
On the other hand, Wallace is still just 27 years of age and has shown the ability to get on base in the upper minors, where his career Triple-A OBP has approached the .400 mark. And Wallace began to translate his power into production at the MLB level, hitting 22 long balls in his last 539 trips to bat over 2012-13. Wallace is out of options, notes Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter), which complicates his situation for clubs that might like to take a chance on his upside.
Hanley Ramirez Hopes To Be Dodger For Life
It's unclear if the Dodgers' extension talks with Hanley Ramirez have progressed since they were reported to be in the "early stages" three weeks ago, but Ramirez made one thing clear today. After arriving at camp a day early, Ramirez told Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that he wants "to be a Dodger for life."
Ramirez declined any further comment on a potential extension, but he did say that he had treatment this winter on a damaged nerve in his back that is believed to have been the source of last season's hamstring woes. That balky hamstring limited Han-Ram to just 86 games, but when he was on the field, there were few better players in the game. Ramirez batted .345/.402/.638 with 20 homers in just 336 plate appearances last season and was worth more than five wins above replacement despite the missed time.
An extension for Ramirez would take perhaps the top free agent from the 2014-15 crop off the market before he's ever given the chance to test it. The Dodgers made an aggressive push to keep Clayton Kershaw from hitting free agency with last month's $215MM extension, and presumably, they're highly motivated to keep Ramirez in Dodger Blue as well.
Should Ramirez hit the open market, next offseason could be a rare free agent class where there are plentiful option at shortstop. J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera are all set to hit free agency following this season. (Notably, however, the market may have gained a major buyer today with the news that Derek Jeter will retire from the Yankees after the season.) Those names join Chase Headley, Pablo Sandoval, Brett Gardner and Colby Rasmus as the top (relatively) young position players in next year's free agent class.
Brewers Outright Donovan Hand
FEBRUARY 12: Hand has cleared waivers and been outrighted, tweets Brewers Senior Director of Media Relations Mike Vassallo (hat tip to Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com). Hand will receive an invitation to the big club's Spring Training camp.
FEBRUARY 7: The Brewers have designated righty Donovan Hand for assignment to clear a roster spot for Francisco Rodriguez, the club announced. The 27-year-old got his first taste of the big leagues last year.
In 31 appearances, seven of them starts, Hand pitched to a 3.69 ERA in 68 1/3 innings for the Brewers in 2013. He posted 4.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in that stretch. Hand has been solid at all levels as a professional, never allowing more than four earned runs per nine in a given season. In 44 Triple-A appearances in 2012, he threw 79 2/3 innings of 3.84 ball; last year, in 35 2/3 innnings at the highest minor league level, he notched a 3.28 mark.
Derek Jeter To Retire After 2014
Legendary Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter announced today on his Facebook page that he will retire after the 2014 season (hat tip to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, whose colleague Mark Feinsand tweets that agent Casey Close has confirmed the retirement). Jeter, who turns 40 in June, re-signed with the Yankees — the only franchise he's ever played for — earlier in the off-season.
The coming season will be Jeter's 20th MLB campaign (though he saw just 51 plate appearances in his first taste of MLB action at age 21). Taken with the sixth overall pick of the 1992 draft, Jeter performed consistently in his rise through the system, and never looked back upon making the Yankees. Since becoming a full-time big leaguer in 1996, Jeter went 17 straight years with at least 542 trips to the dish. Over that stretch, Jeter posted a composite .313/.382/.448 line with 255 home runs and 348 stolen bases. Needless to say, his standard of consistent excellence has been matched by few others.
That run of good health came to an end last year, which Jeter says is a major reason for his decision today. "Last year was a tough one for me," said Jeter. "As I suffered through a bunch of injuries, I realized that some of the things that always came easily to me and were always fun had started to become a struggle."
Indeed, while things always did seem to come easily to the shortstop, he was perhaps better known for his hard work and leadership. The Yanks' emergence from mediocrity and notable run of success aligns quite clearly with his career: the team qualified for the post-season in all but two of Jeter's seasons (2008 and 2013). Over that span, the team won added five World Series victories to New York's tally. And Jeter was even better in the post-season, posting a lifetime .308/.374/.465 triple-slash in a remarkable 734 career post-season plate appearances.
Along the way, of course, Jeter racked up ample amounts of individual hardware, including 13 All-Star appearances, five Silver Sluggers, the 1996 AL Rookie of the Year Award, and the 2000 World Series MVP. Somewhat surprisingly, particularly given his high profile, he never took home an American League MVP nod.
He was also awarded five Gold Glove awards, somewhat more controversially. Proponents of advanced metrics argue that Jeter has actually been rather a poor defensive shortstop: though he makes few errors, neither does he have much range. (Jeter has been worth -147 Defensive Runs Saved and a -67.8 UZR.)
Whatever one thinks of Jeter as a defender, he has unquestionably put up a Hall of Fame-worthy career. That inevitability was likely sealed when he notched his 3,000th hit, but is also supported by the numbers. Jeter has racked up a total of 71.6 rWAR and 73.8 fWAR to date, which places him at 58th and 45th, respectively, on the all-time list of position players. As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs argues, Jeter falls short of only Cal Ripken in total production among full-time shortstops since Honus Wagner retired in 1917. (Though, to be fair, Jeter is quite close to several other shortstops in both fWAR and rWAR, and falls behind several of them according to the latter metric.)
Those wins did not come cheap, however. Once his 2014 earnings are in the bag, Jeter will have earned over $265MM over his career. For sake of comparison, Chipper Jones — who racked up 85.1 rWAR over 1995-2012 — took down nearly $100MM less in his time in the bigs. And Carlos Beltran, who has been worth 67.5 rWAR since 1998, will reach just under $206MM by the time his new contract expires after 2016.
For the Yankees, Jeter's retirement confirms what had been suspected: the team needs a new shortstop for 2015 and beyond. Though Brendan Ryan will remain under contract, he does not profile as a starter on a team that hopes to win championships. At least one team executive told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he did not know that Jeter planned to retire (Twitter link), so it is at least conceivable that today's announcement could have some impact on whether New York looks to make any more moves before embarking on the 2014 season.
Twins Claim Brooks Raley From Cubs
The Twins have claimed lefty Brooks Raley off of waivers from the Cubs, reports Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter). Raley, 25, had spent his entire career in the Chicago system.
Raley has thrown just 38 1/3 MLB innings over the last two seasons, and made his first go at relief in 2013. Previously, Raley had worked almost exclusively as a starter. In 141 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level last year, Raley posted a 4.46 ERA, with 6.0 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9. According to Pitch F/X data (via Fangraphs), Raley throws both a four-seam and two-seam fastball, each of which sit around 89 mph, and also offers a slider, curve, and change. Over his time in the upper minors, Raley has actually shown a relatively minor platoon split, though big league righties have hit him hard.
Emilio Bonifacio Clears Release Waivers
Emilio Bonifacio has cleared release waivers and is now eligible to sign with any team as a free agent, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish.
The Royals avoided arbitration earlier with Bonifacio earlier this month, agreeing to a one-year, $3.5MM contract. However, since that time, they've agreed to bring lefty Bruce Chen back into the mix in 2014 and chosen to designate Bonifacio for assignment to clear roster space. The Royals were unable to find a trading partner and placed Bonifacio on release waivers two days ago. Arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed, and as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports pointed out yesterday, Kansas City is only on the hook for roughly $575K of that $3.5MM guarantee.
Any team is now free to sign Bonifacio at any price. The speedy 28-year-old struggled to a .218/.258/.321 batting line in his short time with the Blue Jays but quickly turned it around upon arriving in Kansas City last year. With the Royals, Bonifacio slashed a healthy .285/.352/.348 in 179 plate appearances. He showed off his best tool — speed — by swiping 28 bases in 36 tries between the two clubs last season. Though he's not a gifted defender at most positions, Bonifacio is versatile; he comes with big league experience at second base, shortstop, third base and all three outfield positions. As many as nine clubs, including the Orioles, are said to have interest in the switch-hitter.
Dodgers Nearing Deal With Cuban Shortstop Arruebarruena
The Dodgers are nearing an agreement with Cuban shortstop Erisbel Arruebarruena, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes (Spanish link). Arruebarruena, who defected from Cuba last year and established residence in Haiti, is traveling to the United States to take a physical, according to Rojas' source.
The 23-year-old Arruebarruena has six seasons of professional experience in Cuba's Serie Nacional and therefore is not subject to the spending restrictions placed on international amateurs. He is free to sign with any club for any amount.
Arruebarruena is considered an elite defensive shortstop, but most scouts have serious questions about his bat. Though Arruebarruena batted .320/.367/.520 in 306 plate appearances in Cuba from 2011-12, Ben Badler of Baseball America spoke with multiple scouts at the time of his defection and noted that many questioned whether Arruebarruena could manage a .220 average or .300 OBP in the Majors. He's also not a particularly fast player, further limiting his offensive upside. Given all of that info, it's not difficult to see why Arruebarruena has drawn comparisons to fellow Cuban shortstop Jose Iglesias.
This would mark the third significant Cuban signing for the Dodgers in the past two years, as the team has also inked Yasiel Puig and Alexander Guerrero. The Dodgers appear set in the infield with Juan Uribe, Hanley Ramirez, Guerrero (or Chone Figgins, Dee Gordon or Miguel Rojas) and Adrian Gonzalez. However, a deal for Arruebarruena would likely be made with an eye on the long-term. Badler noted in his write-up that the defensive wizard would almost certainly require some minor league seasoning to hone his offensive skills, possibly having to begin at the Double-A level.
Diamondbacks Sign Bronson Arroyo
The Diamondbacks have been connected to multiple starting pitchers on both the free agent and trade markets this offseason, but it took until early February for the team to reel one in. The team today announced the signing of Bronson Arroyo to a two-year deal with a club option for the 2016 season. Arroyo is reportedly guaranteed $23.5MM in total. He will earn $9.5MM each in 2014 and 2015, and the club has a $11MM option for 2016 that comes with a $4.5MM buyout.
The length and total money in the deal comes in right under the prediction of MLBTR's Tim Dierkes. As Dierkes explained in his profile of Arroyo, the soon-to-be 37-year-old starter's high-floor/low-ceiling profile — combined with his age — made two years and $24MM a good target. Though Arroyo spent much of the off-season looking to add a third guarantee year, he ended up settling in just under the two-year, $26.5MM deal inked last year by Ryan Dempster with the Red Sox.
Arroyo, a client of Terry Bross and Turn 2 Sports Management, has been as consistent and durable a starter as the game has seen in recent years. Since 2004, Arroyo has logged at least 32 starts, logging at least 199 innings in all but the first of those campaigns. His cumulative ERA over that time is 4.10, a mark that he bested in each of the last two seasons (3.74 and 3.79 earned per nine, respectively).
Arroyo succeeds despite offering an 87 mph fastball, which he delivers in less than half of his pitches. He throws three varieties of off-speed pitches: slider, curve, and change. Though Arroyo does not strike out many batters, having hovered in the low-to-mid 5.0 K/9 range in recent seasons, neither does Arroyo hand out free passes. With just 1.2 and 1.4 BB/9 in the last two years, he has maintained a K:BB ratio of better than 3.6 over 2012-13, among the best in baseball. His biggest issue, perhaps, is a tendency to allow the long ball well above the league-average rate, though that is due in some part to spending his last eight years pitching in the homer-prone Great American Ball Park.
Arizona bolsters an already-deep rotation with the signing, which likely means that prized prospect Archie Bradley will not start the year with the big club. Arroyo joins Patrick Corbin, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, and Randall Delgado in the rotation mix.
Despite a fairly busy season on the pages of MLBTR, the Diamondbacks actually had inked just one guaranteed MLB deal (Eric Chavez, one year, $3.5MM) prior to landing Arroyo. Arizona apparently beat out two other clubs to sign the veteran, as the Dodgers and Orioles were also named as finalists for his services. The club had serious interest in adding young, unproven Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka, but instead ends up adding quite a different type of arm in Arroyo.
John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 first reported the deal on Twitter. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com first reported the length and option year (Twitter links). ESPN.com's Buster Olney first reported the financial terms (via Twitter). FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal first tweeted that Arroyo had passed his physical.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.