Quick Hits: Boras, Drew, Red Sox, Orioles
In an interview with Peter Gammons, Scott Boras expressed his confidence that Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales will find good contracts with teams that will put more value on their contributions than the value of (possibly second- or third-round) draft picks. With that said, Boras also believes the free agent system needs to be changed to give players more freedom and to encourage teams to spend. “We should be doing everything possible to try to get smaller market teams the necessary veteran leadership to contend,” Boras said. His suggestions include banning qualifying offers for players over 30 years old, and a monetary compensation system for teams who lose free agents under age-30 that the clubs can re-invest in signings or draft spending.
Here's some more from around the baseball world…
- An executive on a team that explored signing Stephen Drew told Andy Martino of the New York Daily News yesterday that Drew's medicals were raising some concerns. Another source tells WEEI.com's Rob Bradford today (Twitter link) that Drew is "perfectly healthy. No physical issues."
- The Red Sox are looking to add outfield depth, Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com reports, and Scott Podsednik is one name on Boston's current long list of external candidates. Ryan Gleichowski, Podsednik's agent, recently told Mastrodonato that Podsednik was in shape and eager to continue his career after sitting out the 2013 season. We also recently heard that the Sox have some interest in Padres outfielder Chris Denorfia.
- The Red Sox will have an estimated $96MM coming off the books following the 2014 seasons, WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes, leaving the team with lots of flexibility to re-sign David Ortiz and/or Jon Lester, as well as explore new player acquisitions.
- The Orioles seem to be using a "stars and scrubs" strategy in building their team, Fangraphs' Dave Cameron writes, and the tactic doesn't seem to be working given the clear holes on the roster and their relatively limited payroll space.
- Liz Mullen of Sports Business Journal reports (subscription required) that Dan Lozano's MVP Sports Group has hired former Dodgers director of Asian operations Acey Kohrogi to serve as the firm's head of Asian operations. Kohrogi spent 18 years with the Dodgers and helped them attract the likes of Hideo Nomo, Takashi Saito, Hiroki Kuroda, Chan Ho Park and Hong-Chih Kuo to the Major Leagues.
- The Phillies' new 25-year, $2.5 billion TV contract will theoretically pay them an average of $100MM per year, though David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News crunches the numbers to explain how that $100MM average will actually work out to a much smaller annual payout. MLBTR's Jeff Todd also recently examined the Phillies' TV deal and noted that the contract could just help the team continue its high-spending ways, rather than allow them to raise payroll even more.
- The Giants' bullpen and the Blue Jays' second base platoon project as the worst positions on contending teams, according to Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan. The Giants' pen projects as below-replacement level as a group thanks to several pitchers that could be declining, while the Jays' Maicer Izturis/Ryan Goins platoon stands out as a weak spot. The Dodgers' second base spot also technically makes Sullivan's list, though he says that's only due to a lack of information about the newly-signed Alexander Guerrero.
NL Central Notes: Pirates, Samardzija, Morgan, Cards
The Pirates have earned the No. 1 spot atop the organization talent rankings in the 2014 edition of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook (Baseball America's J.J. Cooper has the details). The Bucs' strong 2013 draft and their multitude of quality prospects throughout the farm system contributed to the ranking, BA editor John Manuel explained to Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “They have several players we felt would contend to be No. 1 in a lot of different organizations,” Manuel said. “They have several players who fit the profile to be starters on championship-caliber teams. They have more of those than other teams.”
Here's some more from around the NL Central…
- Jeff Samardzija believes he'd be unlikely to sign an extension with a new team following a trade from the Cubs, the right-hander tells CSN Chicago's Patrick Mooney. “The odds are very slim that I would," Samardzija said. "For any professional player two years out of free agency, the odds they sign a deal are pretty slim (in that situation)." Samardzija said his feelings could change if he's actually in that situation, but he tells Mooney that his preference would be to stay with the Cubs. Click here for an earlier portion of Mooney's pre-Christmas interview with Samardzija.
- The Reds aren't one of the six-to-eight teams who have shown interest in Nyjer Morgan, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports. Morgan enjoyed a big 2013 season with the Yokohama Bay Stars and is weighing offers from both MLB and Japanese clubs.
- The Cardinals seemingly have pitching to spare, but Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch points out that the club's arms have thrown a lot of extra high-pressure innings over the last few seasons due to the Cardinals' deep playoff runs. "This is why I have no problem with GM John Mozeliak's obvious desire to hoard pitching. You just never know when you're going to need arms to come to the rescue," Miklasz writes.
- The Cardinals plan to expand their scouting and development operations within Japan and Cuba over the next year, Mozeliak tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
- In other NL Central news from earlier today, the Pirates signed Chris Dickerson to a minor league deal, the Cardinals claimed Rafael Ortega off waivers from the Rangers, Brewers GM Doug Melvin commented on his team's lack of free agent moves, Reds GM Walt Jocketty discussed the difficulties of signing Homer Bailey to an extension.
Minor Moves: Thomas, Olmedo, Darnell, Solis
Here are today's minor transactions, with the latest moves at the top of the post…
- The Angels signed left-hander Justin Thomas to a minor league deal, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez tweets. Thomas posted a 6.93 ERA over 24 2/3 IP with the Mariners, Pirates, Red Sox and Yankees from 2008-12. The 29-year-old southpaw spent the first half of 2013 pitching for the Athletics' Triple-A affiliate before signing with the Nippon Ham Fighters.
- The Rays signed infielder Ray Olmedo, third baseman/outfielder James Darnell, catcher Ali Solis and right-hander Santiago Garrido to minor league contracts, the team announced via its Twitter feed. All four players will receive invitation to the Rays' Major League Spring Training camp.
- Since Rafael Ortega was claimed off waivers by the Cardinals earlier today, only two players remain in DFA Limbo according to the MLBTR DFA Tracker: Padres right-hander Adys Portillo and White Sox lefty Santos Rodriguez.
Mets Notes: Colon, Williams, Drew
Here's the latest from Citi Field…
- Bartolo Colon's two-year, $20MM deal with the Mets breaks down as $9MM in 2014 and $11MM in 2015, ESPN New York's Adam Rubin reports. Rubin estimates that the Mets' 2014 payroll currently sits at roughly $85.9MM.
- The Mets discussed Jerome Williams earlier this offseason, MLB.com's Anthony DiComo tweets, though his name hasn't come up since Colon signed. Williams is hoping to find a full-time rotation job and the Mets can't guarantee him a regular turn. At least eight to 10 teams checked in on Williams after he was non-tendered by the Angels, and he already received a few offers during the Winter Meetings, with most of the interest coming from the AL West and AL Central.
- Since the Mets don't project to be contenders in 2014, ESPN's Buster Olney opines (Insider subscription required) that signing Stephen Drew doesn't make sense for the team, barring the unlikely event that Drew agrees to a team-friendly one-year deal.
- In other Mets-related news from earlier today, the Mets signed Taylor Teagarden to a minor league deal and Brewers GM Doug Melvin said he was in "ongoing discussions" with Mets GM Sandy Alderson about a trade involving a first baseman (namely, Ike Davis) but nothing has materialized.
AL West Links: Tanaka, A’s, Astros, Castro
Could the Athletics be stealth contenders for Masahiro Tanaka? A Major League executive tells Bill Madden of the New York Daily News to "watch out for Oakland" as a suitor for the Japanese right-hander. "They’ve got as much money as any team and they like doing these big international things — as with their signing of (Yoenis) Cespedes and the fact they were second to the Reds for Aroldis Chapman five years ago," the exec said. Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com explores the possibility of Tanaka joining the A's and thinks the executive might've just been speculating, but while he feels it's unlikely the A's can outbid the field for Tanaka, Stiglich notes the A's have already made some surprising moves this winter "so no sort of Tanaka speculation should come as a complete shocker."
Here's some more from the AL West…
- Speaking of Tanaka, ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider subscription required) opines that "he would be absolutely perfect for" the Astros. Tanaka is young enough that he'll be in his prime when Houston will theoretically be able to contend, and the Astros can afford to make a big contract offer since they have so few long-term payroll commitments.
- Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle breaks down the question of whether the Astros should trade or extend catcher Jason Castro. There's clear value to keeping a cost-controlled, power-hitting catcher on one-year deals through arbitration, and yet without an extension, a trade becomes more logical the closer Castro gets to free agency.
- Trading for outfielder Michael Choice "was the best move made by the Rangers this winter," opines MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan as part of a reader mailbag. Sullivan sees Choice as a candidate to help the team in 2014 and take over as Alex Rios' replacement in 2015. Texas acquired Choice as part of the deal that sent Craig Gentry to Oakland last month.
- The Rangers drafted Jameis Winston in the 15th round of the 2012 draft and Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News talks to Texas assistant GM A.J. Preller and other club personnel about how serious Texas was about signing Winston and still letting him play football for Florida State. Winston, of course, is quarterbacking FSU against Auburn in tonight's national championship game and says he aims to be a two-sport star a la Bo Jackson or Deion Sanders. Winston is next eligible for the MLB draft in 2015.
- In other AL West news from earlier today, the Mariners will need approval from ownership before going ahead with any more big moves, and the M's signed catcher Humberto Quintero to a minor league deal.
MLBTR's Zach Links also contributed to this post
Doug Melvin On Free Agency, Relievers, Mets
Brewers general manager Doug Melvin spoke to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy about the team's relatively quiet offseason thus far and some other hot stove items…
- The Brewers are the only team who has yet to sign a free agent to a Major League contract, as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently examined. Melvin said the Brewers haven't delved into the free agent market is due to both the team's plan to "go with our young guys" and an overall lack of suitable fits for Milwaukee's payroll. “If you look at a lot of the teams that got involved in free agency in the past few years, it hasn’t been that successful for them — and then there are the players whose price range isn’t even close to what we could consider. We’re putting a lot of faith into our system," Melvin said. “We weren’t going to get [Shin-Soo] Choo. We weren’t going to get Robinson Cano,” Melvin said. “We can look at $5-$6MM, but if we think our guys are better or as good at $500K, why would we make a move just to make a move?”
- Melvin is open to adding a veteran reliever to the young arms in the Milwaukee bullpen, implying that such an addition would come in a trade. "Our bullpen is an area that we’ve talked about maybe whether we would add an experienced piece or not," the GM said.
- The Mets have discussed Ike Davis in trade talks with the Brewers (as well as the Pirates and Orioles) and Melvin confirmed that some talks had taken place. "First base, I’ve had ongoing discussions with Sandy Alderson, but we haven’t gotten to anything where we’re comfortable with the deal from our side, and he’s not been comfortable with the deal from his side.”
- While Melvin declined to say whether he found the Mets' asking price too high, Melvin did say that “I think we’ve pretty well stood by — the one thing we’ve done is we do not want to give up pitching.” The Mets reportedly asked for promising young right-hander Tyler Thornburg in exchange for Davis last month.
Walt Jocketty On Homer Bailey, Arbitration Cases
The Reds spoke with Homer Bailey's representatives before the holidays about a new long-term contract for the right-hander, MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reports. This isn't the first time the club has explored locking up Bailey, as the two sides reportedly discussed an extension last winter before settling on a one-year, $5.35MM contract to avoid arbitration.
Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told Sheldon that Bailey is the only one of Cincinnati's six arbitration-eligible players who is currently being considered for a long-term deal. Unsurprisingly, Jocketty sees Bailey as "probably the one guy that's going to be the most difficult [to sign] because of how well he's done and where he's at in this service class. Young pitchers are getting quite a bit."
"At this point, we really haven't discussed anybody but Homer to sign long term. Homer is the only one we've pursued, but we've had internal discussions on the other guys. We just have to see how it all fits in, financially."
Bailey is arb-eligible for the third and final time this winter, and MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects that Bailey will earn $9.3MM through the arbitration process. Another strong reason for Bailey would almost surely net him a $100MM contract in free agency next offseason, and the mid-market Reds would be hard-pressed outbid richer clubs for Bailey's services on the open market. Even locking him up now would be an expensive proposition for the Reds — MLBTR's Tim Dierkes opined that it might take more than a five-year, $85MM deal to keep Bailey in the fold since he's so close to free agency.
If the Reds can't extend Bailey this offseason, they could explore a trade, though Jocketty has said that the team wants to keep Bailey in order to help them contend in 2014. I'd guess it would also be difficult for Jocketty to find fair value for Bailey in a trade considering a suitor would only have him for one season. Since Bailey would net Cincinnati a first-round compensation pick (for turning down a qualifying offer) if he signed elsewhere in the offseason, the Reds would likely only be motivated to move the righty if they could obtain something of greater value than a first-round pick.
Of the other arbitration cases, Leake and Chapman stand out as the only possible candidates for a long-term deal. Leake, picked eighth overall in the 2009 draft, has become a solid part of the rotation in his own right, with a 3.99 ERA and 677 1/3 IP over his first four seasons. This is Leake's second year of arb-eligibility and Swartz projects him to earn $5.9MM. Chapman is projected by Swartz to earn $4.6MM through his first year of arbitration eligibility (on top of the $3MM he earns from his original contract). It's probably unlikely that the Reds would look to make a long financial commitment to a closer, especially since the chance still exists that Chapman could be moved into the rotation.
Twins Notes: Mauer, Pelfrey, Garza, Morgan
SB Nation's Grant Brisbee examines the ups and downs of Joe Mauer's contract and wonders what Mauer would have signed for had he been a free agent this offseason. Mauer is owed $115MM over the remainder of his contract, and while Brisbee feels he'd fall a bit shy of that, he still predicts a healthy six-year, $101MM contract. Mauer would have been the second-best hitter in this year's free agent class, Brisbee notes, pointing out that among 2013-14 free agents, only Robinson Cano has a higher OPS+ than Mauer over the past two seasons. More Twins-related news and rumors…
- Mike Pelfrey's two-year, $11MM contract with the Twins includes $3.5MM in incentives based on innings thresholds, as broken down by Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
- There isn't any change in negotiations between the Twins and Matt Garza, according to 1500 ESPN's Darren Wolfson (Twitter links). As Wolfson reported earlier this week, Minnesota is willing to meet Garza's price but only on a short-term deal, while Garza is looking for a longer commitment.
- The Twins are not one of the six teams that have expressed interest in a minor league deal for Nyjer Morgan, according to Darren Wolfson (Twitter link). Morgan recently switched agents and is weighing a return to the Majors after a strong season in Japan.
- Major League sources tell Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that a reunion between the Twins and Johan Santana is a real possibility. Minnesota has continued to discuss its former ace internally, has stayed in contact with Santana's agents and has some interest in a reunion.
- The Twins face an interesting battle for the fifth spot in their rotation, wrote MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger in his most recent Twins Inbox. Samuel Deduno, Vance Worley and Scott Diamond are all out of minor league options, but the rotation figures to have room for just one of the three with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey all under control. That's to say nothing of top prospect Kyle Gibson, who struggled in 2013 but still projects to be in the rotation at some point. Bollinger feels that Deduno is the front-runner for the fifth spot but doesn't see a Worley or Diamond trade happening until at least midway through Spring Training, as each pitcher's value is at a low point.
MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post
Chris Capuano Seeking Two-Year Deal
Free agent left-hander Chris Capuano is seeking a two-year deal and is willing to wait for that opportunity to evolve if it is not currently present, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.
Capuano, 35, posted a 4.26 ERA with 6.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 46.4 percent ground-ball rate (the best of his career in a full season) over 105 2/3 frames with the Dodgers in 2013. Though his ERA numbers have been up and down over the past four seasons, Sabermetric estimators such as xFIP and SIERA both feel that his skill-set has been that of a 3.60 to 3.97 ERA pitcher in that time.
The big factor with Capuano is health — something he's struggled with throughout his career. Capuano has twice undergone Tommy John surgery, and while he looked to have overcome his injury woes when he threw 186 and 198 1/3 innings in 2011 and 2012, respectively, he was shelved by multiple injuries in 2013. Capuano saw time on the disabled list with a calf strain and a lat strain this past season, and he also threw just 4 2/3 innings in September as he battled a groin injury. He did throw three solid innings of relief and pick up a win in Game 3 of the NLDS, suggesting that he ultimately overcame that injury as well.
Capuano has posted excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios since returning from his second Tommy John surgery. From 2011-13, there are just 25 pitchers who have thrown 450 innings or more and posted a better K/BB ratio than Capuano's 3.14.
Indians Sign Scott Atchison
The Indians have signed right-hander Scott Atchison to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, according to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian (on Twitter). Atchison is represented by agent Rich Thompson.
Atchison, 38 in March, was non-tendered by the Mets in November. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him to earn $1.3MM in arbitration on the heels of a season that saw him post a 4.37 ERA in 45 1/3 innings with the Mets. Atchison averaged 5.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and posted a solid 48.7 percent ground-ball rate in New York last season.
Atchison is somewhat similar to Matt Albers, whom the Indians recently lost to free agency (Albers signed with the Astros). Though Albers is significantly younger, each right-hander makes up for a below-average strikeout rate by keeping the ball on the ground. Atchison's ground-ball rate isn't as pronounced as that of Albers, but he's posted superior walk rates to Albers since returning to the Majors from Japan in 2010.