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Archives for January 2014

Rosenthal’s Latest: D-Backs, Tanaka, Brewers, Colvin

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In his latest column over at FOXSports.com, Ken Rosenthal reports that the Diamondbacks' pursuit of top free agents Masahiro Tanaka, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Beltran stemmed from the fact they'll soon be completing a new television deal with FOX Sports that will be worth at least $90MM per season for a span of 15 to 20 years (beginning in 2016). He notes that while comparing TV deals is difficult because of differing equity stakes negotiated by each team, but the contract should still top the Rangers' recent TV deal, which pays them $80MM per season. More highlights from Rosenthal…

  • The Cubs' offer to Masahiro Tanaka did not include an opt-out clause, according to Rosenthal. Knowing that they might not compete until 2016, the Cubs were wary of including a clause that would allow him to opt out shortly after their next competitive club hit the field.
  • Their recent signing of Matt Garza will allow the Brewers to move trade acquisition Will Smith (received in exchange for Norichika Aoki) to the bullpen. Milwaukee could still add another reliever this offseason, but they also want to take a look at Rule 5 lefty Wei-Chung Wang.
  • After missing out on a Major League deal with the Orioles due to concerns over his back, Tyler Colvin is weighing a number of minor league offers.
  • The Marlins and Rockies are both interested in former Reds right-hander Nick Masset, who has missed each of the past two seasons due to shoulder injuries.

Reds To Sign Chris Nelson

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TUESDAY: Nelson's deal allows him to opt out on March 28 if he has not been awarded a roster spot by that time, according to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish (on Twitter).

MONDAY: The Reds have agreed to a minor league deal with infielder Chris Nelson, reports MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported earlier today that Cincinnati was closing in on a deal with the Williams & Connolly client. Nelson told Sheldon's colleague, Thomas Harding, that he is excited about the opportunity:

"I think it’s a great opportunity, especially being in the National League. I have a chance to be a utility man, and with the double-switches there could be a chance for playing time. It could be a good fit for me."

As Sheldon writes, there will be a familiar face in camp for Nelson, as second baseman Brandon Phillips is at times one of his offseason workout partners. The 28-year-old Nelson slashed .301/.352/.458 in 377 plate appearances with the Rockies in 2012, but that line was propped up by a .374 batting average on balls in play that was predictably not sustainable. Regression in his BABIP and a 29 percent strikeout rate in 2013 saw the 2004 No. 9 overall draft pick's production fall to .227/.273/.327. Though he can handle both second and third base, he's not considered a plus defender at either position.

Nelson will look to catch on as a reserve for both Phillips and third baseman Todd Frazier, though the Reds have reserve options at each position in the form of Skip Schumaker and Jack Hannahan, each of whom is on a guaranteed contract for the 2014season.

Free Agent Notes: Angels, Phillies, Yankees

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Draft pick compensation is hanging over the market for several prominent, unsigned free agents — namely, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Stephen Drew, Nelson Cruz, and Kendrys Morales. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports looks at the draft pick situations of some of the clubs that might consider adding one of those names. As we finish a quiet Monday, let's round up some notes on free agent rumors from around the league:

  • The Angels do not seem to be operating with much urgency to add a free agent pitcher, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. If the club does add to its rotation with an open-market contract, says DiGiovanna, it is more likely to go after Jason Hammel or Chris Capuano than Bronson Arroyo or Paul Maholm.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said today that the club does not have any outstanding offers for guaranteed MLB deals, tweets Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. As MLBTR's 2014 Free Agent Tracker shows, Philadelphia has not entered such a pact since inking Roberto Hernandez on December 18.
  • After committing a cool half-billion dollars through free agency (if you count Masahiro Tanaka and his release fee), the Yankees appear to be done adding significant salaries for the offseason, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. New York seems to be following through on GM Brian Cashman's statements that the club would not pursue Drew, says Martino, and the team is not currently trying to work out a deal to bring Chase Headley over from the Padres.

Latest On Johan Santana: Timetable, Twins, Mets

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Still in the midst of recovering from his second major shoulder surgery, one-time Twins and Mets ace Johan Santana could still be half-a-year away from taking the hill in a major league game, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports. Discussing Santana at the Twins' winter fan event yesterday, Minnesota GM Terry Ryan said that Santana will "be held back" and "won't be ready to go probably … [until] the summer at some point."

That does not mean, however, that the Twins and other clubs are not keeping an eye on the 34-year-old southpaw. "We do have some interest in him," said Ryan. "Whether or not he wants to sign with us will be up to him." Ryan said that Santana "would be a good fit" for a Twins organization that made three significant free agent rotation additions over the offseason. 

Meanwhile, a return by Santana to his more recent home — the Mets — does not appear to be in the cards. As Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports, with Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lannan now added to the club's fifth-starter competition, Santana's time in Queens is now all but certainly over.

Though he never again dominated at his 2004-2006 levels, the Venezuelan native remained quite valuable over his first three years in New York, authoring a 2.85 ERA over an even 600 innings between 2008 and 2010. Over the final three years of his $137.5MM deal, however, Santana threw only 117 innings of 4.85 ERA ball. Unsurprisingly, the Mets declined their $25MM option for Santana's services for the 2014 season, instead paying him a $5.5MM buyout.

Santana figures to be available on a minor league deal given the extent of his injury issues, though the Grady Sizemore signing suggests that a guaranteed deal is not an impossibility. At a minimum, the changeup artist will surely draw plenty of interested onlookers when he decides to audition. After all, it was only two summers back that Santana — returning from his first shoulder surgery — no-hit a potent Cardinals lineup and ended the month of June with a 2.76 ERA over 98 innings (only to see things fall apart thereafter).

Masterson, Indians Put Extension Talks On Hold

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Pitcher Justin Masterson and the Indians appear to have "shelved" discussions of a long-term contract extension, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. For the time being, at least, the sides will instead focus on dealing with Masterson's arbitration case.

Hoynes reported about two weeks back that player and club were set to negotiate a long-term deal. While both sides are said to be interested in a new contract, Hoynes says that "talks have gained little, if any, traction." Today's news echoes another recent report, from MLB.com's Jordan Bastian, that discussions to date have failed to produce momentum.

Of course, the two parties still have plenty of work left to do on reaching a salary for 2014. Masterson filed at $11.8MM, with the team countering at $8.05MM. The resulting $3.75MM gap is the largest in absolute terms of any of the year's arbitration cases, leaving both sides facing a high-stakes hearing if a settlement cannot be hammered out. Spanning that gulf could be tricky, and GM Chris Antonetti has indicated that Masterson's case (or that of one of his teammates) could go to a hearing. Masterson's hearing is scheduled for February 20th, Bastian tweets, which does leave plenty of time to find a compromise.

Masterson, a 6'6" righty who turns 29 in March, has logged four straight seasons of at least 180 innings for Cleveland. Though he has posted middling earned run averages over two of those campaigns (4.70 in 2010 and 4.93 in 2012), his other two tallies are those of a top-of-the-rotation starter (3.21 in 2011 and 3.45 in 2013). In the aggregate, he was worth 11.7 fWAR in the 2010-13 span, placing him among the top thirty starters in the game during that stretch. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has pegged Masterson's extension value in the range of $65MM to $85MM over a five year term.

Minor Moves: Chris Leroux, Pete Orr, Blake Davis

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Here are today's minor moves and outright assignments from around the league…

  • 29-year-old righty Chris Leroux has inked a minor league deal with the Yankees, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. The Canadian hurler has 69 2/3 MLB innings under his belt, all in relief, over which he has maintained a 5.56 ERA and 8.1 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9. 
  • The Brewers announced that they've signed infielder Pete Orr to a minor league contract. Orr's deal does not contain an invite to Major League Spring Training, but he will report with the rest of the Major Leaguers and invitees on day one of camp, MLBTR has learned. The versatile 34-year-old has appeared in the Majors with the Phillies in each of the past three seasons and has a career .269/.321/.395 slash line at Triple-A. Orr can play shortstop, second base, third base and both corner outfield positions.
  • MLBTR's Tim Dierkes reports (via Twitter) that shortstop Blake Davis has inked a minor league deal with the Pirates. Now 30 years of age, Davis was a fourth-round selection of the Orioles in the 2006 draft and got a taste of the Majors in 2011 with Baltimore, batting .254/.323/.390 in 65 plate appearances. He spent 2013 with the Brewers' Triple-A affiliate, where he slashed .256/.297/.352 in 357 PAs.

Indians Sign Elliot Johnson

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The Indians have signed infielder Elliot Johnson to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter link). Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish first connected the Indians to the ACES client yesterday (also on Twitter).

Johnson, 29, was acquired by the Royals as a player to be named later in the blockbuster James Shields-for-Wil Myers trade last offseason. He batted just .179/.218/.241 in 173 plate appearances with Kansas City before finding himself designated for assignment and claimed off waivers by the Braves. Johnson improved at the plate in Atlanta, hitting a more respectable .261/.317/.359 in 102 PAs. He also offers plus speed, as evidenced by his 22 stolen bases in 24 attempts in 2013.

Johnson's best asset is his ability to handle both up-the-middle positions. Ultimate Zone Rating thinks highly of his glove at second base (+7.9 UZR/150), while grading his shortstop defense as passable, though slightly below average (-2.7). Defensive Runs Saved pegs him at +13 in 602 innings at second base and +3 in 1079 innings at short.

While Ryan Raburn is one option to occasionally back up second baseman Jason Kipnis, he saw just 17 innings there last season and is better suited to play right field. Mike Aviles presents another option to back up Kipnis as well as shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, but Johnson could fight his way into the mix for a utility spot.

Free Agent Faceoff: Ervin Santana Vs. Ubaldo Jimenez

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Now that both Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Garza are off the market, Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez are widely considered the top two starters in free agency. Some may argue in favor of Bronson Arroyo as well, but given the lack of draft pick compensation and his age relative to Santana and Jimenez, Arroyo figures to have a different market than the pair of early-30s Dominican right-handers.

Santana turned 31 in December and enjoyed an excellent rebound campaign with Royals in 2013 after he was acquired in a salary dump trade with the Angels. Similarly, Jimenez, who turned 30 last week, rebounded from a disastrous 18-month stretch that saw him post an ERA north of 5.00 and caused many fans around the game label him a lost cause.

Jimenez is more of a strikeout pitcher than Santana but also comes with worse control, as reflected in his 9.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 rates in 2013. While he was once an extreme ground-ball pitcher, Jimenez turned in a slightly below-league-average mark of 43.9 percent in 2013 (44.5 percent was average). Santana, meanwhile, relied on pristine command but picked up strike three far less often than Jimenez. He averaged nearly three full strikeouts fewer than Jimenez on a per-nine-inning basis (6.9) but walked just 2.2 hitters per nine. His ground-ball rate has trended upward over the past three seasons, culminating in a career-best 46.2 percent in 2013.

However, the pair shares some similarities as well. For one, Santana and Jimenez have displayed durability, averaging 200 and 198 innings per season, respectively, dating back to 2008. And, despite the different ways in which they've prevented runs, they've done so at nearly an identical rate. Dating back to that same 2008 season, Jimenez's 3.90 ERA is just a hair lower than Santana's 3.93 ERA. Both have experienced significant swings in that time, and that inconsistency has played a part in the fact that they remain on the free agent market on Jan. 27.

Also playing a part has been the lengthy Tanaka saga and the fact that each hurler will require forfeiture of a draft pick. Despite strong rebound campaigns for each, neither pitcher has seen his market develop much. That figures to change in the next month, and the debate among pundits as to which pitcher is the better investment for a team in need of pitching will likely produce arguments for both sides. With all that said, let's see what the MLBTR readership has to say about this pair of high-upside but relatively inconsistent pitchers.

Rays Sign Grant Balfour

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JAN. 27: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets some more specifics on the breakdown of Balfour's contract. Balfour's $5MM in 2014 will come in the form of a $1MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary. He will receive an additional $500K if traded, and $2MM is deferred in each year of his contract.

JAN. 23, 6:00pm: Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Balfour will earn $5MM in 2014 and $7MM in 2015 (Twitter link).

3:19pm: The Rays have officially signed reliever Grant Balfour to a two-year, $12MM deal. Balfour returns to the organization with which he had both his best (2008, 1.54 ERA) and worst (2009, 4.81 ERA) seasons as a big leaguer.

Balfour

Of course, the ACES client had an earlier agreement in place with the Orioles for two years and $15MM, which was blown up when Baltimore found issues with the reliever's physical. The Aussie will nevertheless throw in the AL East after agreeing to terms with Tampa. (It is worth noting that the Rays' team doctor was one of those who said there were no issues with Balfour's right shoulder, though the Orioles apparently had different reasons for concern with the medicals.)

As MLBTR's Steve Adams wrote in profiling Balfour earlier in the offseason, the righty struck out batters at an impressive rate of 10.8 K/9 in 2013. Though the 36-year-old's fastball velocity has dipped since he worked around the 95 mph mark in his excellent 2008 season with Tampa, he still brings his heater at above 93 mph on average.

Ultimately, since a tough 2009, Balfour has been outstanding at keeping opposing runners from crossing the plate. Over the 2010-13 seasons, Balfour has maintained a 2.47 ERA in 254 2/3 innings, with an average of 9.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. He has been a model of consistency over that time frame as well, as his ERA has not strayed above the 2.59 mark.

Balfour faced a tough market situation even before his ill-fated pact with Baltimore. With several other big-name, late-inning relievers on the market, it was clear early on that some good arms would be left unable to max out their earnings. As the list of free agent closers shows (via MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker), Balfour slots in between the two-year deals of Joaquin Benoit ($15.5MM from the Padres) and Edward Mujica ($9.5MM from the Red Sox). Interestingly, he falls well shy of the $19MM guarantee handed by the Dodgers to Brian Wilson, who only threw 19 2/3 innings last year (including the post-season) after missing almost all of 2012-13 due to Tommy John surgery.

Andrew Rickli of SportsReel Boston first reported the deal (via Twitter). Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first tweeted the final contract terms, while Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports first tweeted that the deal was expected to land in the two-year, $12MM range. 

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds Nearing Deal With Chris Nelson

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The Reds are nearing a contract with infielder Chris Nelson, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). The Williams & Connolly client split last season between the Rockies, Yankees and Angels.

The 28-year-old Nelson is a former No. 9 overall pick (by the Rockies in 2004) but hasn't displayed that pedigree at the Major League level to this point. Nelson is a career .268/.312/.399 hitter and has experience at both second base and third base, though defensive metrics such as UZR and DRS are down on his work at each position.

Nelson's best season came with the Rox in 2012 when he slashed .301/.352/.458 in 377 plate appearances, but that line was propped up by a .374 batting average on balls in play that was predictably not sustainable. Nelson saw his strikeout rate climb to 29 percent in 2013, and with the drop in BABIP (down to .313), the result was a combined .227/.273/.327 batting line in 227 PAs.

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