FRIDAY: The Mariners made a formal offer to the Rockies for Stubbs earlier this week, according to Nick Groke of the Denver Post. Groke, like Morosi and Harding, hears that the Rockies aren’t actively looking to deal Stubbs.
THURSDAY, 9:41pm: There are no talks ongoing regarding Stubbs, Harding reports, but sources tell him that increased activity on the outfielder could occur over the coming week.
7:02pm: The Mariners have inquired with the Rockies about the possibility of acquiring outfielder Drew Stubbs, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Colorado is willing to listen on Stubbs, tweets Thomas Harding of MLB.com, and would be interested in bringing back a controllable young arm in return.
Stubbs, 29, has played exclusively in center field with the Rockies, though he also has experience in right. He has posted a career-best .297/.335/.498 slash with ten home runs an 11 stolen bases in 258 plate appearances. That comes on the heels of three straight seasons of below-average production with the Reds and Indians, however, which led to his being dealt to the Rockies from the latter club in exchange for southpaw reliever Josh Outman.
The right-handed hitting Stubbs is earning $4.1MM through arbitration this year and should be in line for a nice raise in 2015, his final season of arb eligibility. That contract situation limits his trade value, of course. Colorado is not yet sure if they would like to part with Stubbs, Morosi adds. Of course, he is part of a fairly crowded outfield situation at present, particularly given reports that the club would like to bring back veteran Michael Cuddyer.
Stubbs is fine vLHP, but in Safeco he’ll be less than what he was in Cleveland vRHP… which is near zip. Good ‘D’ though.
yeah the point is whether you think Stubbs or Ackley is a better RH OF option for the playoffs
Ackley bats left-handed.
exactly
Have you seen what the M’s have been trottin’ out their in center?
Yeah, and his .272 AVG is a lot better than Stubbs’ road AVG of .229, which might still be better than Stubbs’ AVG in Seattle, since not all the road parks he’s played in are pitcher’s parks like Safeco.
“He has posted a career-best .297/.335/.498 slash”
Thanks in large part to playing half his games at Coors Field
OPS in 2014
Coors – .999
Away – .620
Though there is no question he is an upgrade over Jones.
Like all Rockies hitters, take his average (home and road) and that’s roughly what he’d do in a neutral park. Coors inflates numbers of course, but Rockies hitters have a horrible time on the road because of the change in altitude. Stubbs is very good against lefties. Perfect platoon/late inning D guy.
“take his average (home and road) and that’s roughly what he’d do in a neutral park.”
Um, his average (home and road) is .297 (along with the .335 OBP and .498 Slugging). Unless I am misunderstanding what you are saying and I apologize if so.
That’s correct. That’s how I would evaluate him. His OPS+ (park adjusted) is 113, and that’s for both sides of the plate. So he’s been a very solid hitter. Take away his righty-righty AB’s by platooning him, and you’ve really got something.
Wait, so you’re saying he would sustain that batting average in a neutral park? You expect him to be a .297 hitter with the Mariners? (hey anything is possible but that’s not likely for a career .235 hitter)
I think Away numbers would tell me how a player would do in a neutral park considering Away games are played in all types of ballparks.
More accurate to say he could be a 113OPS+ hitter elsewhere(his more telling split is his L/R split(Career .297/.357/.466vLHP .229/.295/.364vRHP and his 2014.360/.417/.593vLHP .261/.286/.444vRHP
Matt Holliday
Chris Iannetta
Seth Smith
Dexter Fowler all had huge splits as a Rockies player but have had their best career OPS+ after leaving. (Holliday had a 109OPS on the Road as a Rockie, and a 144OPS+ on the road as a Cardinal)
honestly the Mariners ought to try getting Morneau too since he smokes RHP
I think I’d personally expect him to produce somewhere between 80-90% of his totals this year if switching from Colorado to Seattle. I’d imagine an OPS somewhere between .670 and .720 would be an expectation. Along with average-to-good defense in CF, that’s a huge upgrade for the Mariners.
As long as the Rockies don’t ask for the moon (so, none of the Mariners top guys [Walker, Paxton, Franklin, Peterson, Taylor, Wilson, Kivlehan] – maybe a package built around a secondary guy [Guerrero, Diaz, Gohara, Marlette, Sanchez, Marte]), I think Stubbs would be a good pickup.
honestly Franklin plus filler for Stubbs+Morneau would be mutually beneficial
That’s not terrible, except that the Rockies have a halfway decent second baseman already (spectacular defensively, no power but decent hitting tool).
I would love to move DJ to UT Franklin to 2B and sell/stash Rutledge
Just saying he’s having a good year. And no, going by away numbers is a bad idea when evaluating Rockies players. They hit much worse away from Coors than they would in a neutral environment. It’s called the “reverse Coors effect,” and is quite pronounced and well documented.
“And no, going by away numbers is a bad idea when evaluating Rockies players.”
Well he’s not a lifetime Rockies player so we can still look at his career away stats. And not all Rockies players (past and present) have bad Away numbers, though it’s probably very rare to find a Rockies player who did better Away than at Coors.
almost none their have been a few(Brad Hawpe, Ian Stewart) who were about as good on the road as at home.
His career splits minus this year are pretty normal. Maybe a touch big, but nothing significant. My point though is that he’s having a great year and is worth getting. That OPS+ of 113 don’t lie. It’s park adjusted.
I don’t think every good Rockie hitter is a product of Coors, but Stubbs is. Looking at his 30.2 K% this year, it is right in line with his 30.0 K% from 2011-2013. That tells me he has been extremely lucky this year and his .297 average is a by product of his .396 BaBIP. That BaBIP is .077 points higher than the .319 he has posted the last 3 seasons and unsustainable. Where Coors really helps him is his power. From 2011-2013, his ISO was .122, which is almost identical to his .114 road ISO this year. This year his home ISO is .269. That is also completely unsustainable. There is no reason to think he is really any better than the 0.5-1 WAR player he has been the last few years. If the Mariners gave up anything more than a couple of C/C+ type prospects, I would consider it an overpay.
You’re completely missing the point. I’m not arguing Stubbs’ Coors numbers are what you get. Obviously, not even close. I’m saying Stubbs’ road numbers are ALSO not what you get. You get something in between. And if you lop off his righty-righty AB’s and platoon him, you get something REALLY useful if you have a problem with LHP.
I agree that he is a useful piece as the short end of a platoon. The problem is, he is already making $4.1MM this year and will probably jump to $7MM or $8MM next year based on his unsustainable numbers this year. He just isn’t good enough for that as a full time player or won’t play enough as a platoon player to justify that salary IMO. If he was in the first year of a 2/$4.5MM contract or maybe if he was left handed it would be a different story, but unfortunately he is neither.
He is absolutely not an OPS+ 113 hitter. the fact that you casually say “all hitters are worse away from coors” is true, but look at stubbs career numbers. They are as bad as his numbers away from coors. he’s hit 213 and 233 his last 2 years. do you really think this year is worth buying because he’s had a good year with over half his ABs at coors? even if you do think he’s capable of coming anywhere close to those numbers away from coors, you are now putting him in a park with the EXACT opposite park factor -> his numbers will drop precipitously. on top of that, he’s having a CAREER year right now, so if there is ever a thing as buying high the mariners would be the suckers here.
“Rockies hitters have a horrible time on the road because of the change in altitude.”
The reason they do worse on the road is that they’re deprived of the advantages of playing in Colorado. It’s not just the way the lighter atmosphere helps the ball fly farther. The field itself is enormous, so it’s much easier to hit gaps in the outfield and much harder for opposing fielders to cover.
There is a question that he’d be an upgrade over Jones.
Jones doesn’t have Stubbs’ gaping splits — not just home-road, but also the handedness splits. You already noted that Stubbs’ away splits are worse than Jones’s totals. Realistically, you have to expect something closer to Stubbs’ road splits, and very possibly worse, if he moves to a pitcher’s park in Seattle.
Jones has the third-highest Speed Score in the majors and has almost twice the stolen bases in just 29 more PA, so he brings that as well. Stubbs is a glaring product of Coors field and a platoon player. Even if he is an upgrade over Jones, he’s still far from the offensive upgrade the M’s need. Z shouldn’t even be considering him.
Stubbs and Tulowitzki to Seattle for Walker, Franklin and PTBNL.
nope
Yeah, no.
Wow, as a Mariners fan, I’d have to say that’s not nearly enough. Rockies have no motivation to trade Tulo (unless you count “injury prone” as a reason).
That would be the scariest double play combination ever between Cano and Tulo.
Small price for the best SS in the game..
Mariners should go for Stubbs and Tulo, but it will take much more than Walker, Franklin and a PTBNL. Looking at the recent hauls for relievers, you’d be looking at 3 front line prospects minimum for Tulo and another front liner plus one for Stubbs. If you package Walker or Paxton with Peterson, Sanchez/Holtzen, and Wilson, you might be able to get Tulo. Add Taylor and Elias, minimum, to get Stubbs.
Downside is you obviously gut your farm system. But getting someone who can play CF and get on base, as well as the best SS in the game by far, likely puts Seattle in the postseason for the next couple of years. And with a first five starting lineup (when healthy) of Stubbs, Saunders, Cano, Tulo, and Seager in some order and a top starting pitching rotation of Felix, Iwakuma, and Walker or Paxton, you’re still in pretty darn good shape. Will still need to upgrade at C, 1B, and an OF spot. But maybe Smoak, Ackley, Montero, etc will feel less pressure and perform better when they are surrounded with players who can actually hit.
And you’d have an up the middle defensive combo of Cano, Tulo, Stubbs. That would help your pitchers something fierce.
But, let’s face it, it ain’t happening.
Hopefully this was a joke?
Don’t just look at Stubbs’ numbers away from Coors this season, look at his career. Think about where he plays when he’s not at home: a lot of games at SF, LAD, and SD. That skews his numbers downward for those away games.
Career-wise Stubbs has an average slash for a good defensive CF: .245/.313/.392. The interesting numbers, though, are against left handers: .284/.357/.466. In a semi-platoon with either Chavez or Jones the team can upgrade significantly in center field. And Stubbs is the better defender, so on his off days he’s a defensive replacement. If the price is right he would help the team.
He also has a great numbers in his 26 PH appearance .450/.577/.750 with more walks than strikeouts a really useful piece on a contender, maybe Ackley plus a minor league reliever like Snow or Maurer
You don’t want stubbs… his numbers look good this year because of Coors field. Yes his splits against LH look decent but LH at bats account for lest than a third of his career ABs. He’s a decent fielder – not as great as you would imagine (look at his bRef’s dWar for reference) So you gotta think long and hard if you want to pay upwards of 4 mill in addition to trading quality (plus he’ll get arbitration again next year and isn’t getting any better turning 30) talent for a guy that is so limited. Now picture him playing in your monster Safeco field where his offensive numbers will surely fall – not a good idea.
Umm … LHP at bats account for a third of EVERYONE’S total, except for pure platoon hitters. That’s how many lefties are in the majors. Used correctly, as a mostly platoon hitter and a defensive sub, he’s a terrific asset, and there ain’t nothing better on the market. Mariners may have the worst outfield in baseball, and nothing on the way in the minors. Their star is in his early 30’s and they’ve got to win now.
And that’s one big reason why he’s not right for the Mariners. They don’t need another platoon hitter.
Pretty sure the Rockies would take this and run.
And Zduriencik should be fired if he offered it.
Prior to this year Stubbs was a .228 lifetime hitter. M’s don’t need this guy. Especially if they have to give up one of the good young pitchers.
he is a very good role player namely as a speedy defensive replacement with very good numbers against LHP
Seriously, good role player. .228 lifetime BA and a good role player. pttttttttttttt. The M’s need a serous bat, something like over .285 and some pop. No more AAA players.
You might want to check into some numbers a little bit deeper than his BA.
“SF, LAD, and SD. That skews his numbers downward for those away games.”
You do realize that Safeco is a power-suppressing pitcher’s park, right? I mean, you’ve got Edgar’s photo for your avatar, so you know that, right? Edgar had a career SLG of .515, but it was only .475 at Safeco.
Horrible move for Seattle.
The Reds kept waiting on Stubbs potential to flourish, but it just never happened. He’s a great outfielder that can’t hit.
Reasonable gamble if “The price is Right.”
I feel like Jack Z doesn’t know how to get out of a hole and only knows how to dig deeper.
you can dig your way out!
I really don’t see how this will help the Mariners. Stubbs was a below average hitter before coming to Colorado and his home road splits are massive this year, .999 OPS at home vs .620 on the road.
I agree, more of a polished hitter would be a better option. I dont see why they arent really trying to get Alex Rios.
I do not understand the Rockies’ decisions? They have a packed outfield and the Mariners will give them real value for Stubbs, the least interesting option in their outfield. How do the Rockies ever hope to get better by holding on to replacement level players.
In fact, if I were GM of Colorado, I’d ship hitters off by the dozen to supplement my pitching. If history of Coors has been a guide, most hitters will do, even those under league average like Stubbs become good hitters at Coors. Great hitters like Tulo become elite.
That brings the conversation to their prized SS…ah, hurt every year, long contract, huge value in terms of what teams would give up, why not at least consider trading him for the sake of the franchise? He could bring back a monster haul of pitching. Trade Tulo, CarGo, Morneau, and anyone else. Fill in spots with young, controllable, good defenders and supplement with hitters hoping to turn their career around from poor offensive years. They have a way in Coors and it is to undervalue their hitters, making them all available for the right trade. Just as Mars needs women, Coors needs pitchers!
If the Mariners are serious about contending for the Wild Card in the AL, they need more hitting. If they need more hitting, they need to set their sights higher than Drew Stubbs. Giving up a valuable trade chip that could be used to bring in someone more useful for their offense? I think that would be a mistake.
Stubbs splits scream that this year is a product of his environment. M’s ought look for someone more consistent with a solid RH stick.
Grateful to finally see the M’s back in contention. Where conversations about being a player or two away are actually relevant again. I think Jack Z. is a bit cash strapped this year, and has to look at small trades to supplement the team and make at least a minimal attempt to improve. I wish, but highly doubt M’s will make any trade of huge significance b/c of the $$ it would include.
A platoon of Stubbs and Jones isn’t a bad idea – hoping M’s don’t give up much in return like the Kendrys/Pryor swap. Not what I was hoping for – but realistic considering we were hoping a .500 season to build upon. I’m wanting more, probably won’t happen, but glad we are back in contention again. Gives me and the family something to root for again.
hmmm doesnt sound like an M’s move… they need more 1st basement/DH types. Morneau anyone? lol seriously though, they need a hitter that is a proven producer. someone like kemp, melky, rios, pence, j. upton, werth, byrd, davis.
This discussion points to a deficiency in stats archives. We should be able to further refine splits so we could know, for instance, how left-right splits show in a player’s home-road splits.
When you’ve got a player like Stubbs, whose home-road splits are enormous, all his other splits are going to be skewed by his home numbers. Most likely, his overall numbers vs. righties are more like last year’s, if you subtract his numbers vs. righties at Coors. Unfortunately, we can’t do that with any of the existing stat archives I’m familiar with. Someday, I hope. As it is, it seems highly unlikely that his numbers vs righties away from Coors would be anywhere near his overall numbers vs. righties this year. They’re nearly as high as his overall numbers vs. southpaws last year.
I don’t understand. Stubbs is having a career year with a team not going anywhere this year. The Rockies would be smart to sell high and get what they can for him.