The Phillies are supposed to be one of the major sellers in this season’s trade market. The club has declined steadily in recent years. They currently sit in the cellar of the NL East with a 42-54 record. The decision makers in Philadelphia have talked about trying to climb back into the race, but it’s probably too late to escape the inevitable – the glory days have passed.
Despite a poor record, the team possesses plenty of veteran talent to sell as mercenaries to the highest bidder. Cliff Lee returns from the disabled list on Monday. A.J. Burnett may be headed to the Orioles. Cole Hamels is perhaps too valuable to trade – just in case a rebuild goes faster than expected. Jonathan Papelbon wants to play for a competitor, but Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins prefer to exercise their 10-and-5 rights to remain in Philadelphia. Carlos Ruiz is recovering from a concussion. Marlon Byrd can block trades to four teams, one of which is the team that wants him. Those are just the most notable names among a plethora on offer.
As outside observers, we’re trained to look at this situation through a very simplistic lens. A bad team is supposed to trade it’s veterans for young players. A good theory, but it’s not always easy to put into practice. As we discussed earlier tonight, a guy like Lee might be hard to trade given his recent injury and contract status. The Phillies have to decide if a prospect package is worth more than Lee in a Philadelphia uniform. Even though the club isn’t competitive in the general sense, they’re still playing for a slice of their fans’ attention. Ratings and attendance will be better with Lee (and Hamels) on the roster.
With the exception of Hamels, none of the Phillies assets appear capable of returning the Grade-A type prospects needed for a quick turnaround. Mostly, they’ll have to acquire upside plays – guys who have potential, but haven’t yet actualized their skills. The front office has an iffy track record with such players; see the returns from Lee and Hunter Pence as examples.
Most of the veterans will still be Philadelphia property in the offseason, so the club isn’t under extreme pressure to make a deal. Their players will only be depreciated another half season. In some cases, a shorter contract could help their trade value. It’s probably a bad idea to play it fast and loose with players over 30, but it might be necessary if the right return isn’t out there.
Ultimately, trade talks are an issue of supply and demand. If those factors align, the Phillies will probably make at least one trade. If not, they may choose to stand pat, if only so some fans will continue to watch their few remaining stars. So…
They will make a trade… the question is who and how many.
Amaro isn’t going to make any trades. He’s going to let this team stagnate until the fans revolt and bodily drag him from the stadium.
I’m sure they’ll make a trade of some sort… Whether it’ll be a big name(Lee, Hamels, Howard, ect) or just some minor BP piece like Antonio Bastardo… who knows
AJ Burnett and Marlon Byrd are going.
I said no, they won’t make a trade because they aren’t getting anything from Lee. Perhaps a couple of prospects that need a change of scenery, but the Phillies would be forced to pay 30M of his remaining salary or teams wouldn’t look at him. Two guys with 5 – 10 rights that have said publically they aren’t going anywhere. Seattle wanted Byrd, but he is forcing the issue with ultimatums they pick up his option to waive the no trade clause. Papelbon demands he is traded to a winner and the teams that are winners or looking at the post season already have closers that put them where they are. He isn’t going to go as an 8th inning guy, which affects his status. The Angels were the one team that may have been in the mix, but they just got Street. Detroit are falling fast and could become sellers, not buyers in another two weeks. The Yankees only have so many roster spots for old and on their last legs players that cost a small fortune, so I don’t see them as being buyers either. Burnett may be the only possible, but he too is picky about where he goes and no one is trading an A prospect for him either.
Unless he goes to the Yankees
The Phillies will be buyers.
Why?
Nothing RAJ does makes any sense.
His math gurus told him he needs more RBI’s, this is why he gave Howard that contract. He is 18th in baseball, so he is good.
He has to make a deal or this town will burn CBP to the ground. I don’t think it will be Lee or Hamels or Utley, but I’d be shocked if a guy like Byrd or Burnett wasn’t gone. I don’t expect any return to get people excited, but I expect a guy or two to be moved at the very least.
That’s just Trading people you signed in Offseason not like Mayberry,Kendrick,Brown or so on.
I’m pretty sure a trade will happen, not one of any huge significance though.
Lee and Papelbon to the Dodgers
Cliff Lee and Papelbon to Dodgers for Kemp and Zach Lee
No thanks on Kemp. He’s still owed about $120M over the next 5+ years and doesn’t look anything like the guy who posted a WAR over 8 a few years ago.
Gotta love deadline hypocrisy.
An ace pitcher, who though is 35, hasn’t shown any signs of decline in recent years and has been worth more than $25 million in 5 of the last 6 years according to fWar? “Maybe he’ll fetch you a coupe low level prospects if you eat all of his contract and buy our GM a steak dinner.”
30-year old outfielder who is owed even more money in the future and has already declined to the point of being a negative value player? “Centerpiece of a deal for an ace AND closer.”
Papelbon can fetch Zach Lee on his own if the Phils eat some salary (which they’ll be expected to do in any deal). Zach isn’t the impressive prospect he once was.
Thank you. Every year around the deadline, fans severely over value their prospects. If every team’s top ten prospect lists always panned out, there would be no free agency and there would be no one over the age of 35 playing baseball.
Instead of eating salary from Pap to get Zach Lee, I don’t think it would be stupid if the Phillies traded Pap with no money, and took back Kemp. For alleviating that financial responsibility from the Dodgers, the Phillies could in effect expect Lee, Seager, and two or three other low minors prospects. I mean, if it’s ok to eat salary to get better prospects, why wouldn’t a team take on salary to get better prospects. I’m sure the Phillies would eat 2/3 of Howard’s deal right now to get even a few C+ prospects.
Hamels, Lee, and Papelbon to the Yankees for Zoilo Almonte, Manny Banuelos, Francisco Cervelli, Aaron Judge, David Robertson, and Luis Severino. Phillies get a 72-hr negotiating window with Robertson. If they cannot sign him to an extension, the Phillies get Gary Sanchez instead of Cervelli, and Shawn Kelley or Adam Warren instead of Robertson.
I’d seriously consider that if I were Ruben Amaro. Would the Yankees be taking on all the money?
Of course. I wouldn’t have it any other way.
If that was the deal, I’d make Robertson some low-ball offer just to get Sanchez. I’m not a particularly big fan of him, but I recognize the value of an offensive minded catcher.
And after I trade Sabathia for Verlander this offseason, I am going to sign Jon Lester. Hamels, Lee, Lester, Tanaka, and Verlander, will be the greatest starting rotation in the history of major league baseball in 2015 or 2016.
If the Yankees can get Lee from the Phillies, I would guarantee his option year. With a $12.5MM buyout and what would likely be a $15MM qualifying offer in 2016 anyway, it seems like a small price to pay for what will hopefully be a stud pitcher. Would Manny Banuelos straight up be enough to get Lee?
If Verlander continues to pitch badly for the rest of this season, is there any chance that the Tigers would trade him straight up for CC Sabathia? If not, what would the Yankees have to add to the deal to get the Tigers to potentially save themselves a lot of money.
” Would Manny Banuelos straight up be enough to get Lee?”
Lol not a chance.
I think that it would be a fair deal. Both pitchers are question marks, but one is much younger and the other is much more expensive. How about Banuelos and Cervelli?
If the Yankees had to pay the full salary , probably would cost either Judge or Severino + lower level prospects.
I expect to pay the full salary. I would rather do that than give up better prospects. I would even guarantee Lee’s option year to get him to void the no-trade clause in his contract, but I won’t trade either Judge or Severino except in a larger deal that includes Hamels as well.
There is no way the Phillies are going to salary dump Lee, if they trade him he wants the most out of it and i expect Ruben to pay a nice chunk of Lee’s salary to do so.
NYC is only 90 miles from Philly.
Okay?
The way the fans treated his wife that postseason is why Cliff Lee signed with Philly instead of NY. This likely will come into play.
Lol that story is so overblown and not true. It also amazes me how many people forget Texas gave him an offer better than the Yankees.
The Phillies contract has a higher AAV than the Yankees offer.
Lee’s option is a vesting option. Not a club or team option.
The conversation for Hamels starts with Betances, not Robertson and then you throw in the top five prospects in the Yankees organization. For all three, you add Gardner, Greene, Whitley, Solarte, plus the top ten prospects in the Yankees organization. Sabathia has zero value to get a bench player right now, since he will probably be retired after this season.
You got the Yankees realistically being able to get Verlander for CC and Lee for Banuelos?
You got the Yankees realistically being able to get Verlander for CC and Lee for Banuelos?
It would probably take either Judge or Severino and another good prospect to get Lee.
Considering the money that he is owed and the questions about his elbow, I don’t think so. I would trade Judge and/or Severino in a larger package for Hamels, but there is not going to be enough of a market for Lee for it to cost that much to get him.
I’d be surprised if Ruben moves Lee without getting a really good prospect in return. The Phillies don’t need to dump salary and aren’t hurting financially. You’re right there probably won’t be a major market for him, but that doesn’t mean the Phillies will just give him away.
I think if he shows 2 good outings before the deadline, there will be Big interest in Lee. If it takes longer, then an August waiver deal or an off-season deal will happen.
Make no mistakes.. Lee is an Ace. David Price is the only other pitcher up for trade better than Lee. Dodgers, Mariners and Indians are all in for Price. Hamels “may” be had if overwhelmed with an offer. Lee would be wanted by any team that went after Price but fell short.
Phillies already said they would add Cash to any deal that nets better prospects in return.
Lee to the Yankees would cost Sanchez, Almonte and a 3rd prospect.
That would be my guess. Or Judge or Severino plus several lower level prospects.
CC straight up for Verlander? Absolutely no way. Until he gets back on the field and pitches well again, he’s damaged goods. The degenerative knee issue is serious. CC’s career might be over. No one will trade for him.
Also, Banuelos’ stock has dipped some the last couple years since he’s hit AAA. He needs to build it up some. I wouldn’t trade him yet while he’s at a low. He’s a pretty good prospect, just hitting ups and downs at AAA.
Would the Tigers have to pay CC if he cannot play anymore? If not, then he is even more of a bargain.
Generally speaking, injured players never get traded. There’s no special rule over that. In 30+ years of watching baseball, I just don’t ever recall that ever happening where a club traded for a player who was on the DL. Of course it’s happened many times, when a team trades for a player, then discover after the fact, that they’re hurt.
That said, I don’t know why the. Tigers would ever go for this. The only reason the Tigers would trade is to go for it this year, for a playoff push. There’s no chance of that at all with CC. The Yankees made a bad move acquiring CC at such an astronomical price, and now they’re going to have to live with it. If they’re lucky, his career is actually done, and insurance picks up the bill, and frees up cash for them to use towards a new player.
The White Sox traded for Jake Peavy while he was on the DL in 2009.
Though I agree the trade he brought up is pretty absurd.
I’d be shocked if Ruben doesn’t trade anyone. If he doesn’t, he needs to be fired. If he can’t make a deal with all the tradeable assets he’s got and the financial resources available to take on money to push through a deal, that means he’s totally inept as a GM.
I think we’re all forgetting the part that Lee doesn’t want to play for the Yankees, he’s already turned them down once
oh my goodness this post made me re-visit the hunter pence trade. yeeshhhh.
I would be surprised if a trade is not made, especially with Marlon Byrd or A.J. Burnett. Each will likely bring back minimal value, but value nonetheless. I expect at least Burnett to retire after the season (he nearly retired after last season).
Okay – so here are some trade ideas that would benefit both teams.
#1) Trade AJ Burnett, Cash and Cesar Hernandez to the Orioles for Kevin Gausman.
#2) Trade Byrd, Hernandez and Bastardo to the Royals for K. Zimmer, Maxwell + PTBNL or the same package to the Mariners for Franklin and Elias.
#3) Trade Carlos Ruiz to Cardinals for Peter Bourjos (then sign AJ Pierzynski)
#4) Trade Ben Revere and Mayberry Jr to Cubs for J. Ruggiano
#5) Trade Dom Brown to the Padres for Venable.
#6) Trade Chase Utley, Rollins, Papelbon to A’s for Milone, Chavez, Callaspso and Johnson.
#7) Trade Cliff Lee and Cody Asche to Yankees for Sanchez, Almonte and either Judge or Servino.
#8) Trade C. Lee & Papelbon to Dodgers for M. Kemp and Z. Lee and/or Seager.
How does a 37 year old number 4 starter and a utility infielder get you one of the better young arms in baseball?
And Molina is coming back for the Cardinals this season. What are they going to do with a 8 million + backup catcher?
none of these are remotely close to realistic
1 & 8 are ridiculously far in the Phils favor, 3/4/5 are terrible deals for the Phils. 2 could happen, and Lee to the Yanks too. AJ’s going to the O’s, but no way Gausman is coming back.
I wonder if the Phils would do a full salary purge with Lee & Hamels to the Yanks. I would say Howard too, but even the Yanks have limits and Ryan’s 2 years $50 mil remaining is pretty onerous.
“As outside observers, we’re trained to look at this situation through a very simplistic lens.”
Speak for yourself man. This situation isn’t particularly complex. The Phillies have revenue to consider, aging veterans who aren’t worth much, and a stubborn GM.
What are the chances of AJ coming back to Pittsburgh? The Pirates have salary space and it seems the Phillies would consider eating a piece of his contract for a C+ prospect. However, I dunno if he’s still soar about being removed from the playoff rotation.
AJ + $5 M for Harold Ramirez?
Personally, I think his option for next year is being overblown. He had to be talked into playing this year. He’s getting surgery at the end of the season – so he’d have to rehab from the surgery in the offseason to play again. I really don’t think he’s going to exercise his player option for next year. But that’s just my opinion. I think the option was put in there more for the team, than it was for him.
I doubt if any of the Philles get traded due to no trade clause, salary demands, or just being plan bad……….Philadelphia, your glory days are over……long road ahead.
After the first trade they will keep coming (Byrd, Bastardo, Burnett, Papelbon, Lee , possibly Hamels)