Andrew Miller was drafted sixth overall in 2006, one spot ahead of Clayton Kershaw. He didn’t find success as a starting pitcher, but developed into a shutdown reliever in recent years. Miller’s stock rose dramatically in 2014, to the point where he’s the second-best free agent reliever this winter. The 29-year-old 6’7″ lefty could score a surprisingly large multiyear deal.
Strengths/Pros
Armed with a 94-97 mile per hour four-seam fastball and one of the game’s nastiest sliders, Miller strikes out batters in droves. Among relievers with at least 50 innings pitched, Miller’s 14.87 K/9 ranked second in baseball, behind only Aroldis Chapman. Using linear weights, Miller had the most valuable slider in baseball in 2014. And he’s no lefty specialist, either, with righties also unable to touch him.
Miller posted a sparkling 2.02 ERA this year, which ranked 22nd among MLB relievers and second among free agent relievers. Miller ranked sixth among MLB relievers with 2.3 wins above replacement, and second with a 1.21 SIERA. In short, Miller’s skills more than back up his performance.
Miller showed the best control of his career this year, walking only 2.5 batters per nine innings. He was traded to the Orioles at the July deadline and was especially stingy with the free pass in the ensuing 20 innings, walking only 1.8 per nine.
Miller allowed less than one baserunner per inning this year, in part because he was extremely difficult to hit. Only six MLB relievers allowed fewer than Miller’s 4.76 hits per nine innings. Since 2012, Miller has allowed 5.8 hits per nine. We’re building a near-perfect reliever at this point, but Miller also allowed only three home runs in his 62 1/3 innings this year.
Miller didn’t have an ERA above 2.70 in any month, but he was particularly good in the season’s final three months with a 1.48 mark. For good measure, he tacked on another 7 1/3 scoreless frames in five postseason appearances, serving as a major weapon for Orioles manager Buck Showalter.
Not that a qualifying offer would have been likely, but Miller became ineligible for one upon his midseason trade. That’s an advantage Miller has over the top available free agent reliever, David Robertson. He’s also younger than most of his peers in the marketplace, as Miller does not turn 30 until May.
Weaknesses/Cons
Control was a weakness for Miller prior to 2014, as he walked 5.2 batters per nine innings in 136 innings from 2011-13. 70 innings of limiting free passes isn’t enough of a sample to say he has completely eliminated the problem. Miller posted a 5.0 BB/9 as recently as last year.
2013 was an odd year for Miller in general. He posted a 2.64 ERA in 30 2/3 innings, but lefties hit .281 off him and he walked 16% of the right-handed batters he faced. That season ended for Miller on July 6th, when he suffered a Lisfranc injury to his left foot. It was a torn ligament between bones in the middle of the foot, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe.
Miller previously hit the 15-day DL in 2007 (hamstring strain), ’08 (knee inflammation), ’09 (oblique strain), and ’12 (hamstring strain). One point in his favor is that none of these injuries involved his left arm. Miller fell an out shy of 70 innings this year including the playoffs, but only tallied 53 1/3 frames in 2012 and 30 2/3 last year. It may not be predictive, but in Miller’s three full seasons as a reliever, this is the only year in which he didn’t miss 26 games or more.
Personal
Miller was born in Gainesville, Florida and attended high school there. He attended UNC for college and was drafted sixth overall in ’06. Miller currently resides in Newberry, Florida with his wife and son. He’s known as a cerebral person, and is one of the game’s most active players union representatives.
Market
Miller has shown he can retire left and right-handed hitters, and has the skills to handle the ninth inning if his team prefers. Any team would love to have him, and he could anchor a bullpen for the White Sox, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs, to name a few. The Tigers drafted Miller in ’06 and traded him to the Marlins the following year as a major component of the Miguel Cabrera deal. The Tigers almost brought him back via trade this July, so they should have interest in free agency. The Brewers, Braves, Pirates, Nationals, and Dodgers were also among those in on him at the trade deadline. A reunion with Boston also can’t be ruled out, and the Yankees figure to check in. And certainly the Orioles would like to have Miller back, if they can fit him into their budget while also trying to re-sign Nelson Cruz and others.
Expected Contract
The Red Sox acquired Miller from the Marlins in November 2010, but non-tendered him a few weeks later. He received strong interest on the free agent market for a few weeks and ultimately turned down three different big league offers to sign a minor league deal to remain with Boston.
Four years later, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says Miller is “a strong union man who believes in the right of a player to seek the best contract for himself when he reaches free agency,” adding that Miller will go to the highest bidder this winter. Interest in Miller will be widespread, as it was at the trade deadline. That the Red Sox were able to extract highly-regarded pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez in a trade for several months of Miller’s services speaks to the kind of bidding war that occurred.
Brandon League money would be a solid deal for Miller; League received $22.5MM over three years at the end of the 2012 season. Given just one save on his resume, Miller would be the first non-closing reliever to reach the $20MM mark (though I’ve predicted just that for Luke Gregerson). Still, with MLBTR’s Steve Adams projecting $52MM over four years for Robertson with a qualifying offer, the League contract feels inadequate for a reliever as coveted as Miller.
We haven’t seen a four-year deal for a non-closing reliever since Scott Linebrink signed with the White Sox seven years ago. With Miller, I think it’s time. I’m predicting a four-year, $32MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Friedman will be all over this.
Not sure Friedman will allocate a big money on a reliever. That was how Colleti liked to do business. That got the Dodgers guys like Guerrier, League, and Wilson.
Although, the market for lefty relievers is shallow. Maybe a trade makes more sense.
Everyone will be all over this.
Miller may get more attention from teams then any other free agent.
I agree. Friedman is not a buy high type of executive. I expect him to sell high, perhaps on Dee Gordon and find himself some younger players that are major league ready.
Miller has been a major talking point of the postseason but I really think the age of 4 year deals for relievers has passed. 3/21 is my prediction.
Based on Tigers and Dodgers recent history (dominant starters, weakness in bullpen), would it not be better to give Miller $40MM for 4 years v. $25MM to a #2 or #3 starting pitcher in AAV?
No, it would not be. The Tigers issue right now is paying for decline phases, and already paying relievers big money. In the last few years alone, Detroit/LA has given 20 MM to Nathan, 19 MM to Wilson, 22.5 MM to League. Relievers are volatile. It seems like an overused cliche at this point, but it’s completely true. The Tigers are best served building a strong farm and finding more JD Martinez gems than throwing more money at the bullpen. Soria/Nathan is about as “previously accomplished” as you get in the bullpen, but you never know when a reliever will fall off the cliff.
Scherzer will not be signed.
Miller for 4 years will cost less than Scherzer for 2 of when-he-is-old years: 2020 and 2021.
Miller is a decade younger than Nathan. Soria was bad luck (with his injury) and will provide value in 2015 at $7MM.
If Miller is signed, Nathan could be DFAed (written off) quickly.
Tigers can try their luck with Miller, Soria, Al Al, Rondon and with no money spent on their #5 starter (Price, Sanchez, Verlander and Porcello as their 1-4). They may get better results that way than the last 4 years.
Knee jerk reactions are one of the big reasons the Tigers have not won over the last 8-9 years. Miller at big money would likely be a mistake. I’m not saying paying Scherzer would be smart but be ware of Miller walking your bases loaded at the wrong moment.
Bad Luck and injuries are the major reasons they have not won the World Series if that is what you are talking about.
4 Division Titles in a Row and 3 LCS appearances in a row is a successful run that is unprecedented in Tigers history.
Miller at 4/$40MM is a lot different than Scherzer at 7/$200MM.
3/21 is pretty much exactly what I would say is fair, it would just seem that Detroit and LA will drive that price up.
I think the years is right. The salary will be interesting.
It seems like volatility in RPs throws in a ton of risk. Also, closers seem to be bottoming out at 10M as being the outer limit when it starts being albatross territory. Miller isn’t a closer (yet), but probably could be, but not having that track record could affect his per year value.
Id love him back in Motown, but if the bidding does get to what Tim thinks, at $8m per, for a non-closer, im not sure DD will go that far, then again we desperately need top quality relief arms, something im sure even Illitch knows, so who knows.
I absolutely agree though that someone will go as far as four years though, for as bad as Miller was as a starter, hes downright filthy as a reliever.
DD will not get criticized for signing Miller, even if he gets $10MM in AAV.
No, i agree with you, any Tiger worth his salt knows its the biggest open wound in this ballclub that needs addressing.
Miller would be great, as would getting Benoit back, but thats another story.
bobble, how heavily do you think Detroit will be in on Miller, all guns blazing?
Yes I do. They will irrationally overpay.
This is the issue with signing Miller and what was the issue with signing Nathan. Even if Nathan had hit his career averages this year, there were still 5 other holes in the bullpen. Now that we know that even Nathan doesn’t fill a hole, signing Miller will solve nothing unless you find at least 2-3 diamonds in the rough. They need to allocate that money amongst multiple relievers, not just one guy.
They would be better mixing and matching with cheaper relievers with back end experience such as Romo, Soriano, Janssen, etc. I also think that teams should start trying to find Andrew Millers of their own. The Red Sox, at one point, had a bullpen that seemingly was made entirely of starters. I think there are some gems by going that route.
You arent going to get Miller quality arms for a fraction of that price, if Miller is going to command say $8m per, you will not get anything like his quality in the FA marker for $2/$3m, so you cant just “allocate that money amongst multiple relievers” and expect the same return.
Also you say cheaper relievers, then mention Romo ($5.5m), Soriano ($11m), and Janssen ($4m) who are anything but cheap options.
Finding diamonds in the rough is great when it happens, but its just not that easy, and thats why guys like Miller who have proven theirselves over numerous years in the pen will get the big dollars, and why the Tigers need to be in on him.
Add him to Soria (who will bounce back), Al Al, Rondon and you start to form the nucleus of a much more solid pen.
I didn’t say go for cheap options. I said go cheaper. Using your own numbers, you can get Jansen and Romo for about the same price as Miller. I agree that neither is as quality, but both are good relievers, and now you have both a 7th and 8th guy opposed to just an 8th. Al Al and Rondon were the reason that DD only got Nathan lasy year. You have to learn from your mistakes.
Then you look at a team like the Mets. Before Mejia, 2 of their previous 3 closers were minor league invites (isringhausen and Hawkins). I know people say it’s hard to find diamonds in the rough, but look at both these guy’s stats the year before. They both put up quality numbers. Guys like k-rod last year, uehara 2 years ago, and mike Gonzalez a few years back are constantly overlooked despite good track records. I never really thought that a team like the Tigers Had much of an excuse to have a bad bullpen
If only it was that easy, adding two contracts together that were signed years ago to match one thats yet to be signed.
All of Miller, Romo and Janssen to a lesser extent will be looking for big money, its simply not realistic to say “well just sign Romo and Janssen for what Miller will cost”, real life never plays out that way.
The Tigers in my opinion need two good bullpen arm FA signings to go with Soria, Rondon, Al Al, Krol and probably still Nathan, if they get them the club as a whole will be much more of a complete picture.
I didn’t realize you were quoting past numbers. I thought you were predicting future salaries.
Predicting contracts is difficult, especially for relievers. Jannsen’s last contract came off of the best year of his career, although it was before he was a closer. He had a significant down year this year. I can’t see him making more than a $6M AAV. I’d have to say Romo’s situation is almost identical, and he’s coming off a year in which he lost the closing job. Soriano is a year older and had a down year in which he lost his closing job (although his fall wasn’t very far) so I like chances that he won’t demand $11M again unless it’s an over pay on a 1 year contract.
Al Al is good. Other than that, Krol and Nathan would need significant turn arounds, Rondon would have to finally put together a full successful major league season AND return from TJ, and Soria would have to return to his second half form. Basically, you are asking 4 guys to be polar opposites of their 2014 self. You may get that from a few of them, but you definitely won;t get it from all of them.
And you say they need 2 good BP arms, I agree with that. IMO I think signing Miller would mean the second signing would be another Joba Chamberlain. While I liked that signing, I think I he should have been the 3rd best reliever they signed last year, not the second.
Miller is a full decade younger than Nathan. Not really a comparable. A comparable to Nathan would be signing Uehara in the offseason.
… And there are not FIVE holes to fill. WIth a little luck Soria is back to Soria, Rondon comes back from Tommy John to pitch 100MPH again (like the original 2014 plan) and Krol develops into the a credible replacement for Coke.
2015 Bullpen could be: Soria (Closer), Miller (Setup), Rondon and Al Al (7th inning), Krol (lefty specialist). That is actually a good bullpen.
I wasn’t conparing Nathan to Miller. I was pointing out the fact that Nathan, even it effective wasn’t going to turn around that bullpen because the rest of the bullpen was still pretty bad. Counting on Rondon is extremely optimistic. That’s how Detroit got in trouble, not only in 2014, but also pre-TJ in 2013. Your 2015 bullpen simply has too many best case scenarios. Deteoit has spent the last few years hoping that the bullpen would fix itself internally. I think it’s time to realize that a lot of these guys have fallen short before and will probably fall short again
Nathan, Soria, Chamberlain, Benoit, Veras, Johnson, Hanrahan.
None of those guys were “internal”… all were signed in the last few years from the outside.
The fact is that the Tigers just have not had luck when it comes to relief pitching. It has been worst case scenarios for the Tigers even thought many of those moves were universally praised.
The law of averages should give the Tigers a bit of luck here…. you would think.
Let’s automatically toss Johnson and Hanrahan out the window. Those weren’t going to work from the start. Soria was a midseason acquisition transferring from an adrenaline closer role to a setup role. That is always a volatile situation.
Nathan imploded but otherwise: you got what you generally expect out of Camberlain, Veras was solid (not sure why people suggest otherwise), and Benoit was pretty much a stud.
At the time that the Tigers signed Nathan I was arguing that they could have signed Joe Smith and Jose Veras for the same amount of AAV. Veras wasn’t great but (depending on what Veras showed up) he would have been serviceable and Smith was an absolute stud.
And just because I feel like proving I’m a complete nerd: the law of averages is also referred to as the “gambler’s fallacy.” A career .300 hitter who hit .200 through the All-Star break should not be expected to hit .500 so that their end average is .300. They should be expected to hit .300 so that their average is closer to .250 at the end of the year.
If there’s any contender right now who has the urgency to patch their pen, it’s the Tigers. They might be the front of that line, and it might be the difference in bidding for him. The Tigers could sign a 4 yr deal at a huge price, and their fans wouldn’t complain. They can safely say they added the best arm available.
Considering how the playoffs went, and the fact that they faced Miller at his best, it might be a done deal.
Miller, Betances, Robertson
Not bad… but you would have to actually be winning games in the 6th inning to make this work.
Tanaka, Kuroda, Pineda, Greene can get them to the sixth winning often enough. The Yankees have question marks but a team that gave 40-year-old, below-replacement-level Derek Jeter 650 PA still finishes with ~84 wins, just four behind the team representing the AL in the World Series, and that’s with nothing out of CC and negative contributions from Carlos Beltran and Alfonso Soriano.
Texiera playing 50 games healthy has become a bigger issue than just about everything you have mentioned. Before I get an argument from people saying he played a lot of games last year, he defiantly wasn’t playing healthy given how below average his numbers were from his career statline. Don’t forget the huge question mark about what they’re going to get out of a 40-year old A-Rod.
Not only that but we wont have Jeter in the field for 130+ games anymore which will save us some runs besides the fact Ellsbury and Gardner will now be the number 1 and 2 hitters.
Good point. Also Prado at 2B has to be better than Bryan Roberts was last year. I am hoping they give Refsnyder or Pirela a shot at 2B.
Oh now we throw Jeter under the bus. Shoulda been getting rolled over 2 years ago if not 10 when Arod showed up to play third. Jeter was great and was probably never asked to do less than play short or bat 1rst or second. A real leader would have stepped up and said “bat me 7th in 2014” or “I’m ready to move to third in 2004”
Everyone is saying that Jeter should have batted 7th. The fact of the matter is that there weren’t 6 guys on the team that had a better offensive season. No one seems to bring that up…
Eh, the Yankees offense was abysmal last season, but Jeter did still rank 11th on the team in both wOBA and WRC+, and that is out of 12 hitters with at least 200 PA.
A “real leader” lol…its not Jeter’s job to advise on where he should be batting. Girardi could have made that move and I doubt Jeter would have complained.
No risk there. Not to mention Kuroda is 40, a free agent and according to another article here leaning towards retirement. Pineda starts the last 3 years: 13, 0 and 0. Shane Greene 5-4 with a 3.76 ERA and career 4.39 ERA minor league pitcher. Tanaka’s arm is a huge risk.
They may pass on Miller because they have young left handed relievers Pazos in AAA and Lindgren is a highly touted draft pick in AA.
Who is to say that Robertson stays a Yankee?
If the Yankees offer him a QO, he’ll probably accept it.
1. I will take “the over” in terms of his contract. Dodgers, Tigers and Red Sox will get into a bidding war. With no QO, I see $40MM is possible in a 4 year deal.
Tigers or Red Sox could actually sign him to be their closer long term.
2. The breaking news in Tim’s piece (via Cafardo) is that Miller is a “union guy”, implying that he will take the most dollars, in part to drive salaries up for other players. I figured he would give a hometown discount to the Red Sox.
That’s not really breaking news. He’s been saying that for months.
The team that gives Miller 4 years will regret it. I see nothing in his career that commands taking the caution flag down.
Wow, 4 yrs and $32 mill is the prediction for Miller? That’s a lot of money for him.
That said, I think a bidding war could ensue.
Personally, I think it ends up 3 yrs with a vesting option with an AAV around $8 mill per season.
I just don’t see a team going 4 full guaranteed years on a reliever like Miller.
My initial feeling was 3/24 so matching AAV. Certainly think it is possible someone goes four years.
This has Dodgers or Tigers written all over it
I was thinking the Dodgers too until Friedman was hired. I think Tigers will get Miller.
If the Tigers resign Victor Martinez they may be hard pressed to be able to afford Miller at that rate..
The Tigers can afford whatever Mike Illitch wants, so if DD is convinced he needs getting, Illitch will no doubt pony up the money just like he has done for years now.
The thing is relievers are such a strange bunch.
I loved Grant Balfour and look what happened to him
Brian Wilson was the flavor of the day and look what has happened to him.
Joe Nathan has gotten old
Joakim Soria is not the same
Jonathan R Papelbon was effective, but lost a lot in the way of velocity.
The Reds and Angels gave Ryan Madson all kinds of money and what did they get out of it?
Plus, what about Neftalí Feliz
Look Miller was nothing short of brilliant and I would love to see him again in an Orioles uniform, but he had one good, well actually brilliant year.
Can he stay healthy, can he maintain his brilliant control?
Time will only tell, how ever by that time, you can’t adjust the contract, it will be written in stone
Huh?
— Balfour – 36 YO
— Wilson – 31 YO coming off major surgery
— Nathan – 38 YO
— Soria – Highly effective for Texas in 33 innings – just OK over 11 innings with Detroit (small sample size)
— Papelbon – posted an ERA above 3 ONCE in his career (2010)
— Madson – Angels signed him as he was recovering from surgery – he did not recover as expected
— Feliz – major arm trouble since his first season
I guess I’m struggling to find the comparables here. You listed out a couple of old guy (Balfour and Nathan), guys coming off major injuries (Wilson, Madson, and Feliz), and a couple guys who were actually good (Soria and Papelbon).
Miller is young (about to turn 30), has had 3 solid consecutive years (with the last one being truly elite). He doesn’t carry the age risk or the injury risk of the guys you cited above.
I still wouldn’t pay him more than $8M AAV or go more than 3 years but it’s hard to find fault with the guy. He is flat out filthy.
He is filthy, and just the type a team could make a bad decision on contract wise. One elite season doesn’t mask his past limitations in my mind. Not to say he isn’t valuable… he’s just not where I go with my team.
I can’t recall many successful relievers who strikeout people at the ridiculous rate that Miller is right now breaking down before the age of 35. The closest comparison that comes to mind is B.J. Ryan and even he wasn’t nearly as dominate as Miller was. Ryan’s breakdown was injury related due to the unorthodox delivery, and there doesn’t seem to be anything wrong with Miller’s delivery that I know of.
I guess the worst case scenario is that Miller could turnout to be the left-handed Carlos Marmol. Although, even Marmol didn’t have as much success as Miller with strikeouts and he walked way more batters at a younger age. Signing Miller seems like a win for whomever does it.
Miller will be coup de ta this winter as far as relievers go!!
Miller will overthrow a regime by military force? That’d be awesome!
I could see Miller returning to Boston, but getting a shot at the closer’s role. I know Uehara had been dominant, but he looked really off in the 2nd half, and given his age, Miller seems a safer bet
Safer is a relative term. It is possible that Miller could cost 4X more than Uehara in contract value. The risk is lower in some sense with a 1 year deal for Uehara.
I thought 4/32 million was reasonable but it might go higher for Miller. Tigers might get outbid but it will cost the other team a fortunate to outbid the Tigers.
Expect the Dodgers to be in on him given they have just J.P. Howell in their pen, nobody outbids the Dodgers.
You got to remember who the Dodgers just hired as president of baseball operations. The Dodgers will be pulling back at least somewhat..
No one plays money ball because they want to, they play it because they have to. They have money so they’ll spend it.
I’ve had thoughts on whether I’ve actually ever seen a money ball team as described pop culture wise. I read that the original intention was to base the book on the Minnesota Twins circa early 00’s. I can get that I suppose.
If that’s going to be the price for Miller, I’d rather see the Red Sox go after resigning Badenhop and signing Hochevar and Gregerson as well. Hochevar I believe will be extremely undervalued on the market with such relievers as David Robertson, Koji Uehara, and the aforementioned Miller all on the market. I believe one thing that makes him so valuable, especially to a team like the Red Sox, is that he provides depth to the starting rotation as well. Boston has lots of depth in the minor leagues but it certainly doesn’t hurt to have somebody with experience too. Hochevars ERA as a starter is over 5 but his career xFIP is 4.10 which means he is much better than he appears to be. I feel that as good as the Royals bullpen was this year, Hochevar was the most overlooked in that entire pen.
No Koji Uehara?
He will most likely prove too expensive for my tastes. I like my relievers cheap but efficient.
Great season this year and he had some moments prior to this year. If he can keep repeating mechanics and keep his control in check he might very well provide a ton of value over 4 years at 40 million. Still anyone who has watched him over the years know how many moving parts their are on his long frame. I like him but he worries me. Is this year the norm, the peak, or the outlier. If it’s the new normal he is worth as much as any reliever in baseball. His stuff is golden. Remember the deal Sean Marshall signed with the Reds a few years back? These big deals for relievers scare me. Especially with the short track record and mechanical issues. Talented as all heck, but……..
The hope is that fewer innings, means fewer pitches (literally) and fewer pitches (in his arsenal), with higher velocity.
Gotcha, however many pitches he throws he has to be able to keep his mechanics right. I’ve watched him a lot the last few years and its like Shaq shooting free throws. When he is on he is nasty but if things are not just right he starts opening up or pulling the ball. It just worries me.
What did the Tigers offer for Miller if the have no prospects ?
More than $6m for a non-closer is ridiculous. High priced pen pieces dont have the best track record. Miller had a gr8 season, but hes been mediocre if not bad previously. This guy needs to be looked at with caution & a budget.
“Miller had a [great] season, but hes been mediocre if not bad previously.”
I was going to post the same thing, then I realized: from 2006-2011 Miller was a starter with very poor results, in 2012 Miller became a full time reliever and his number have improved ever since.
Yep.
2012 was the first year Miller started no games i.e. became a full time reliever.
His numbers since then…
133.2 IP, 86H, 54BB, 202K, 38ER allowed giving an ERA of 2.57 and a FIP (yes i bothered calculating it) of 2.26
That is an elite reliever over the last three years, not just 2014, in anyones eyes.
It gets overlooked because he wasn’t in the spotlight until this year, he was a 6th/7th inning guy with Boston. People assume he must’ve been bad for whatever reason because of his horrible career numbers.
His Walk, Hr, K, & hit rates have all improved since becoming a reliever, but this is the first time hes even come close to throwing 60+innings as a reliever. He had a gr8 season, but still fairly unproven. Not worth $6+ million per year.
A good contract for Miller is between $4.5-5mil & 3yrs. Joe Smith got $5.25 for 3yrs last season & had a longer track record of success.
Not to make an obvious point, but there just aren’t a lot of relievers who can sustain success over an extended period of time. Part of the problem is that there’s a reason that many are relievers in the first place–whether it’s fatigue, mechanics, or the lack of secondary pitches, they tend to wash out as starters, and that can come back to haunt them later on with more exposure. 4/32 could be a fair deal for someone who puts up Miller’s 2014 numbers, but here’s a guy who has only been able to excel out of the bullpen, and only recently. 70 IP between 2012/3 does make you wonder a bit. I think he will get his money, and I think he will be effective for at least part of the contract. What’s not clear to me is whether he’s really worth $8M per year for 50-60 innings.
I’m thinking 3 years, $21 mm.
Just remember why he wasn’t wanted prior to this year. He has a career walk rate of 4.91 BB/9 (This year included!). Something genuinely changed this year or he just got very lucky.
Miller was taken before Kershaw in the 2006_draft, so the talent and arm has been there…if latent and maybe short ceilinged over time. I do agree with you..I feel the gap between Miller and other bullpen arms is much narrower and prone to instability.
How about a Betances/Miller combo? Cheaper but possibly more effective than re-signing Robertson.
Considering how horrific the White Sox bullpen was this year, I really hope they make a run at him.
That would be good, as long as.they check out of a bidding war.