A benign spinal tumor was learned to be a significant factor in Melky Cabrera’s disappointing 2013 campaign, and the switch-hitter regained his form in 2014 as he prepared to hit the open market for the second time in his big league career.
Strengths/Pros
Cabrera hit a strong .301/.351/.458 with 16 homers, 35 doubles and three triples in 621 plate appearances this season. In three of the past four seasons, he’s batted above .300 and context-neutral stats such as wRC+ and OPS+ have each pegged him as at least 18 percent better than a league-average hitter in each of those campaigns.
A switch-hitter, Cabrera is a bit stronger as a right-handed bat, but his platoon split is minor. Over the past four seasons, Cabrera has batted .308/.350/.477 as a right-handed hitter and .309/.352/.451 as a left-handed hitter. In terms of average and OBP he’s about the same from each side, but he does offer a bit more pop against lefty pitchers.
He’s never been one to strike out much (career 12 percent), and he posted a career-best 10.8 percent strikeout rate in 2014. Cabrera’s swinging-strike rate (5.1 percent) was the 21st-lowest strikeout rate among qualified hitters this season, and his 88.3 percent contact rate ranked 16th.
Cabrera will play the majority of next season at the age of 30, so he’s a relatively young bat. Even a five-year contract would only run through his age-34 season, so it’s possible that a team could buy mostly prime years without worrying about too much of the decline phase with this deal.
Weaknesses/Cons
The elephant in the room when discussing Cabrera’s free agent stock, of course, is his past suspension for PED usage. Cabrera was hit with a 50-game suspension near the end of his tenure with the 2012 World Champion Giants, and he admitted at the time that his punishment was “the result of my use of a substance that I should not have used.” That test called the validity of his excellent 2012 numbers into question, and naysayers exuded a sense of almost vindication in 2013 when his numbers went into the tank. While the tumor can now clearly be noted as a strong factor in those struggles, some will always question how much of Cabrera’s production is legitimate.
Back to his on-field characteristics, Cabrera may not strike out much but he also doesn’t walk much or show excellent plate discipline. He’s an aggressive hacker who despite rarely swinging and missing at a pitch averaged just 3.69 pitches per plate appearance in 2014 — a figure that tied him for 105th in Major League Baseball among qualified hitters.
Cabrera once had value on the basepaths as a potential 20-steal threat, but Fangraphs pegged him with negative baseruning value in each of the past two seasons. Perhaps last year can be written off, but Cabrera stole just six bags and provided negative baserunning value even in a healthy 2014 season.
Both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved feel that while Cabrera’s arm is a plus asset in left field, he is overall a below-average defender at the position. Given his decreased speed, it would seem a stretch to suggest that he could still handle center field, even on a limited basis. Indeed, Toronto only played him there for nine innings this past season. He also ended the season on the DL for a minor injury — a broken pinkie finger sustained while sliding back into first base. The injury did require surgery.
Finally, the Blue Jays reportedly plan to extend a qualifying offer to Cabrera, so a team will have to surrender its top unprotected pick in order to sign him.
Personal
Cabrera has fit in well to a Blue Jays clubhouse that features a number of his countrymen in Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista and Juan Francisco, among others. He was also well-liked in San Francisco, even after his suspension. At the time, Sergio Romo made it clear that Cabrera would have been welcomed back with open arms, asking, “Why wouldn’t we want him on our team?” and referring to Cabrera as “a great teammate.”
Cabrera has taken an active role in the community in his native Dominican Republic, organizing youth league tournaments (Spanish link) and encouraging children to stay diligent with their studies while chasing their baseball dreams. Cabrera also donated both cash and food to his home country following the hurricanes of 2007 and was honored with the 2008 Munson Award for his “excellence and philanthropic work in the community,” per the Blue Jays’ media guide.
Market
Cabrera made his desire to return to the Blue Jays perfectly clear late this season, stating plainly, “I stay in Toronto.” Of course, that thinking can obviously change if the Blue Jays’ offer to Cabrera — and GM Alex Anthopoulos has said he expects to make a “competitive” bid — doesn’t stack up with those that he receives from other clubs.
A number of teams will be looking for offense in a thin market for bats, and Cabrera’s will be one of the best out there. The Orioles, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Twins, Mariners, Rangers, Giants, Padres, Reds, Phillies and Mets could all be in the market for an outfield upgrade, so Cabrera’s representatives at the Legacy Agency will have no shortage of teams with which to converse. Among those clubs, the White Sox, Twins, Rangers and Phillies would have a protected first-round pick.
Perhaps most importantly, Cabrera will find himself near the top of a thin free agent crop of hitters. Among his chief competitors will be Nelson Cruz, Victor Martinez and Yasmany Tomas — an aging slugger with questionable defense, a pure DH entering his age-36 season and a 24-year-old that has yet to play in the Majors, respectively. Cabrera’s power doesn’t stack up to those players, but he’s shown a consistent ability to hit for average with respectable pop, and he offers more certainty than someone like Michael Cuddyer or Colby Rasmus.
Expected Contract
Cabrera is in the unenviable position of hoping to set a precedent. Through this offseason, no player has hit the open market with the stigma of both a PED suspension and a qualifying offer and been able to cash in on a sizable deal. Jhonny Peralta secured a four-year, $53MM pact last offseason fresh off a suspension, but he was not the recipient of a qualifying offer from the Tigers. Any number of free agent bats have cashed in after receiving a qualifying offer, including Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Carlos Beltran. While none of those deals looks enticing at this point, that’s certainly not to say that second-tier free agents with qualifying offers will continue to struggle.
Cabrera’s agents will look to make their client the first to receive a strong multi-year deal in spite of that QO and in spite of a past suspension. He does have the benefit of having performed well in a season two years after his suspension, and more importantly, there’s a case to be made that he’s the safest bat on the market. Cruz is four years older with less defensive value, Martinez’s age and lack of position will limit his market, and though Tomas is tantalizing, he’s unproven.
Ultimately, Cabrera’s contract is difficult to project, but I feel the $36-45MM figure floated past the Toronto Star’s Brendan Kennedy in a survey of rival agents was low. Cabrera can rightly claim that he’s one of the best bats on the market at a relatively young age, and that’s enough for me to predict a perhaps unnecessarily specific five-year, $66.25MM contract (Peralta’s contract with an extra year at the same AAV).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
He won’t be a Mariner.
I disagree.
I think Toronto can get him for cheaper if they don’t screw up the negotiations. They’ve got a good thing going with their Dominican contingent in the clubhouse, but AA still needs to give him a competitive offer.
AA should be fired, players are looking to bail, I see Melky signing with either the O’s or another contender.
His best friend plays in Seattle and they’re looking for a guy like Melky Cabrera.
I can definitely see him taking a bit of a discount to stay in Toronto if Anthopoulos gets in the ball park, but it’d have to be really competitive. I do wonder if he’d take a higher AAV ($14MM+) and sacrifice one guaranteed year to remain with the Jays. Something like 4/56 even though he had 5/62.5 offered elsewhere, perhaps. It’s an idea I’ve kicked around, for sure.
That’s what I was thinking. They’d also likely backload the deal a bit to compensate for Buehrle’s 19 million this year among other things.
I don’t really see why they wouldn’t make that kind of over. The young guys coming up should help their payroll situation.
3 yrs $48m
Toss in an option year on top if he gets 1500 PA
Wow, 5 years @ $13M + draft pick seems high, I’d be shocked if a team gave him that length of contract considering how he seems to be aging (defensively). As a Jays fan, if another team gives him 5 years I won’t be upset at losing him, 4 years is pushing it, or maybe 3 years plus a couple vesting years for plate appearances.
The Nats ponied up 7 years and $126 million for Jayson Werth some years ago so I wouldn’t be surprised.
Werth had a much stronger track record and the ability to play RF, not too big of a difference but a stronger position than LF. He was also coming off three seasons of consistent, 130+ wRC production and positive base-running value that still has value today. Melky, though a year younger, has draft-pick compensation, an injury history, worse defense, worse offense and a PED suspension. Comparing the two just doesn’t make any sense.
Werth was 32 (older than Melky) when he signed that contract, it was a few years ago so one can account for inflation and the rising costs of contracts. In the 4 years before Werth signed that contract his slash line was .282/.380/.506 (hardly worth an AAV of $18millon even now). My point is someone could overpay for Melky which is why I say don’t be surprised. And in terms of WAR they were both 3-4 WAR players but also note Melky is 2 years younger then Werth was when he signed. PEDs or not Melky has proved himself since. I’m not saying Melky will get $126 million but a 4-5 year contract at 12 million is a steal compared to Werth.
Werth signed for 18 MM per year, not 21. For the record, the three years leading up to signing with Washington, Werth was a 4.7+ WAR player each year. In 1810 PA, he was worth 14.5 fWAR from ’08-’10 then signed for seven years at 18 MM AAV and, four years in, has a decent return of 12.3 WAR. If he can get up to 21 WAR over the next three years, he’ll have returned 6 MM per WAR.
Yeah I just edited the AAV, I originally listed that because when I looked at Werth contract he’s being paid 21million per in the last seasons of that contract. What Werth has done after the contract is irrelevant to my point. The main point I’m making is if someone would pony up that much for Werth who batted .232 in his first year with the Nats (you didn’t mention that), it’s very feasible to see a team give up $60million+ and a draft pick that has about a 30% or less chance of reaching the majors.
So what Werth has done after signing the contract is irrelevant, but that he hit .232 in his first year is? Interesting argument you have there.
Okay, except I mentioned the 14.5 fWAR leading up to the contract as well, which you ignored. Werth was a far, far, far better player than Melky Cabrera heading into free agency. That’s why he got a contract for 126 MM over 7 seasons. He might end up one of the view players borderline *worth* his 100 MM contract, and not just in the front years.
An OPS+ of 130 with above-average baserunning came out to 4 wins per year for Werth on BBRef and 4.5 on Fangraphs during the time you mentioned. Melky, since his suspension, has had one injury-plagued year and one year of 3 WAR. He really hasn’t proven himself as anything but a valuable offensive producer and a negative defensive asset. Werth was valued as a 4-5 win player and was paid as such. Melky will be valued as a 2-3 win player and will be paid as such. I agree with your basic point; Cabrera seems poised for a 5-year, $60m+ deal, one that the team may regret. But you are comparing two different players in two different circumstances and it’s not a fair comparison.
Your one of the first people I’ve ever known besides these other posters in this thread justify Jayson Werth’s contact. If you think Werth is worth 7 years and 126 million a few years ago then Ellsbury’s contact is right in line since Ellsbury had a 8.1 and 5.7 WAR seasons before he signed. Werth and Ellsbury are overpays but if you think Werth is a fair deal so is Ellsbury.
If we value a win at $6 million adjusting for the backended salary and inflation, $126 million doesn’t look like a bad deal.
Accounting for aging curves, here’s what the deal (may have) looked like when signed:
Age 32: 4.5 wins
Age 33: 4.0 wins
Age 34: 3.5 wins
Age 35: 3 wins
Age 36: 2.5 wins
Age 37: 2 wins
Age 38: 1 win
Roughly that would come out to a $123 million evaluation on 20.5 wins. It’s safe to say that Werth, a consistent, every-day player with a lot of value tied up in his run production, would not decline unless a freak injury would occur. Hindsight is always 20/20, but I haven’t even looked at his actual numbers while writing this analysis and I remember him being a 4+ win player last year and this year.
That’s cool and all but Werth was 32 years old, 126 million for a player who will be making $21 million in his age 36-38 seasons. Whoever gets Melky (even on a 7 year contract) wont need to worry about that. Maybe Werth was worth the AAV, but not 7 years. The Nats structured his contact so that he’ll be making that much in his old years. With your analysis I would have to imagine in your mind Ellsbury’s contract is fair or even Carl Crawford.
Werth’s contract is only justified in the sense that Washington was trying to change its losing atmosphere. They outbid everyone to make a statement. He’s never going “live up” to the deal, but there isn’t much point in comparing Ellsbury’s deal, which wasn’t done for the same reasons at all.
One of the reasons (which you’ve disagreed with me before I believe) that the Yankees paid so much for Ellsbury was to take away Boston’s most consistent and leadoff hitter as well as their center fielder an primary base stealer. I believe Boston paid so much for Crawford since they thought like everyone else that he was gonna land on the Yankees which on paper an OF of Gardner, Granderson and Crawford would be terrifying based on their numbers at the time. I bring in Jayson Werth because at age 32 he signed a record breaking contact that has set the market for outfielders to this day.
Crawford was never really in play for the Yankees. His aversion to playing in New York was well noted even before he signed with Boston. The Angels were Boston’s major competition for Crawford.
Weth’s contract is a talking point for future negotiations, but it’s also contextually important to note that the Nationals were a losing team looking to revamp their public image.
Cashman and Crawford had dinner together the night before Boston made that offer if I’m not mistaken. Boston offered the most money out of everyone so he signed there. Sabathia and Crawford are good friends and even do charity work together and he helped the Yanks make a pitch to him.
Melky has had an interesting career arc. Came up the same time Brett Gardner did, and there was a competition between them. He was very young, but an OK player, nothing special–in four full seasons, never got higher than an ops+ of 95. Went for Vasquez to the Brave, who was horrible for the Yankees, and he was horrible for the Braves. They released him–at 25–he then signs with KC, and has a very good year, gets traded to sf, has a very good year for them, and then on to toronto. i can’t say that there was anything in his 2100 PA with the yankees that would clue you in to the idea that he would be a 3-4 WAR player. He just didn’t look it.
I’m picking the White Sox sign him for 4 years, $52 mil. Melky goes to left field while Viciedo is either traded or moved to DH.
I definitely like the ChiSox as a fit for Melky, but they’re one of many, given how many teams need offense. Agreed that they should look to upgrade over and possibly move on from Viciedo.
If Melky Cabrera gets that much… then Miguel Cabrera’s contract is a serious bargain, even at $30MM/year… relatively speaking.
I don’t see how the two are related. Paying $13.25MM for a 34-year-old Melky makes paying $32MM for a 40-year-old Miggy acceptable?
Point of order. Melky is 30 and has been for a while. How is anybody going to sign him to a 5 year contract this winter and have him be 34 when it expires?
I don’t think the two are related either. Even worse, your opinion on what a Hall of Fame box office draw should get in a market 10 years from now is really irrelevant to the question. Better to just stick to the next 5 years.
No. No it’s not. It’s not even that close. I’d pay Melky 66.25 MM over the ’15-’19 term ten times over before paying Miguel 250 MM from 2016 to 2023…
I think the rangers have a shot at Cabrera in free agency cuz the rangers will pick up Rios’s contract
It’s standard operating procedure for players with spotty or otherwise questionable track records or somewhat pedestrian stats to get an inflated sense of value from MLB teams. J.D. Drew comes to mind for me and Werth, initially…also Vernon Wells…Mike Hampton.
Regardless of those cautionary tales I agree that Melky could get a fortune in momentum-infused bidding.
What he probably should get:
3 years/$42MM w/ $1.5MM buyout on a $14MM option.
What he probably will get:
5 years/$70MM w/ a $17MM vesting option.
What he might get:
6 years/$90MM
Peralta at least plays a premium position (even if he has to move to 2B/3B). Melky is pretty much limited to LF, he just doesn’t have the legs of a 29 year old. Swisher/Beltran are probably decent comparables since they were both a bit better offensively but older or worse defensively.
Interesting on his platoon, given that he’s left-handed
He’s a switch hitter
Right, but he is left-handed as a person.
Melky’s going to the highest bidder.
I’d be absolutely shocked if he got a deal that long and for that high of an annual value. I give him 4/$48 tops, and even that is pushing it if he gets a QO. There are plenty of trade candidates on much friendlier terms that can be had for less value in trade than a supplemental pick (Marlon Byrd for example) which hurts his market even more.
Rangers gave Shin Soo Choo 130 over 7 years. So, some team will give Melky at least 80 million over 5 years.
He’s lazy. Once he gets a long contract, the real Melky will resurface.
This is hard for a Red Sox fan to fathom. Actually trying to keep one of your free agents. This is unheard of
in Boston. I hope he does resign. He is a good player. If not, don’t be shocked if the Yankees bring him back and use Brett Gardner as a fourth outfielder