The Tigers captured the AL Central crown with a 90-72 record in 2014 before the Orioles made quick work of them in the ALDS. Now, the Tigers will look to retool a bit this offseason and, once again, there will be an emphasis on fixing the bullpen.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $240MM through 2024
- Justin Verlander, SP: $140MM through 2020
- Anibal Sanchez, SP: $53MM through 2017
- Ian Kinsler, 2B: $46MM through 2017
- Joe Nathan, RP: $11MM through 2016
- Rajai Davis, OF: $5MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Rick Porcello, SP (5.170): $12.2MM
- David Price, SP (5.164): $18.9MM
- Don Kelly, 3B/OF (5.138): $1.2MM
- Al Alburquerque, RP (3.147): $1.7MM
- Andy Dirks, OF (3.139): $1.63MM
- J.D. Martinez, OF (3.036): $2.9MM
- Non-tender candidates: Dirks, Kelly
Contract Options
- Joakim Soria, RP: $7MM club option ($500K buyout)
- Alex Avila, C: $5.4MM club option ($200K buyout)
Free Agents
- Max Scherzer, Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Coke, Jim Johnson, Joel Hanrahan
Other Payroll Obligations
- Prince Fielder: $30MM to be paid 2016-20
Any discussion of the Tigers’ offseason has to start with pending free agent Max Scherzer. The 2013 Cy Young Award winner says he’d like to return to Detroit, but it’s not that simple. The two sides were discussing a possible extension in the spring before things stalled and the Tigers took the unusual step of releasing a statement on the matter.
“The Detroit Tigers have made a substantial, long-term contract extension offer to Max Scherzer that would have placed him among the highest paid pitchers in baseball, and the offer was rejected,” the statement read.
The Tigers reportedly offered a six-year, $144MM extension, identical to the deal Cole Hamels signed with the Phillies in 2012. The Scott Boras client, meanwhile, may have been seeking an eight-year deal. Now, Scherzer stands as the top available free agent on the open market after another strong season and it’s feasible that he could exceed that average annual value of $24MM on a six-, seven-, or maybe even an eight-year deal with an opt-out clause in the middle. That’s probably too rich for the Tigers’ blood.
If Scherzer goes, the Tigers will have a hard time pursuing a comparable replacement. The market offers appealing alternatives like Jon Lester and James Shields, but the Tigers already have about $151MM tied up between guaranteed contracts, arb raises, the $6MM they owe the Rangers for Prince Fielder and the options on Alex Avila and Joakim Soria. Shields will require four or five years to sign, and Lester could require six or seven, making the fit unlikely. Even second-tier options like Brandon McCarthy and Francisco Liriano could prove too expensive, barring a significant boost to 2014’s Opening Day payroll of $163MM.
As such, it’s not a given that they’d sign anyone to fill the void left by a likely Scherzer departure. In-house options like Robbie Ray, Kyle Ryan, Kyle Lobstein, Drew VerHagen, and Buck Farmer could vie for jobs in the starting five. That’s not apples-for-apples, of course, but the Tigers could get by with a core four David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, with their fingers crossed for a bounce back from Verlander.
In the bullpen, the Tigers have to decide on whether to exercise Joakim Soria‘s $7MM club option or buy him out for $500K. In 44 1/3 innings last season, Soria turned in a 3.25 ERA (his 2.73 xFIP gives him more credit) with 9.7 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. It’s tough to imagine the Tigers not exercising that option. For starters, the Tigers gave up two of their best prospects in starter Jake Thompson and reliever Corey Knebel to land Soria in July, and that would be a mighty steep price to pay for a ten-week rental. Soria wasn’t sharp in his 11 innings of regular season work in Detroit (though in his defense, he was also injured), but that doesn’t mean a ton in the grand scope of things and injuries didn’t help matters. The Tigers would be wise to keep Soria in their historically shaky bullpen, and recent comments from Dombrowski indicate that they’re going to do that.
Beyond that, Tigers might want to do some tinkering with their bullpen and Dombrowski has said that it will be towards the top of their list. Joba Chamberlain seemed to be paying back the Tigers’ one-year, $2.5MM investment nicely in the first half of the season but he turned in a 4.01 ERA after the All-Star break and might not be asked back. Coke, another former Yankee, had a very rough start to the year but improved in the second half, which could leave the door open to a return. Jim Johnson, who came aboard on a minor league deal after his head-scratching 2014 with the A’s, didn’t fare much better in Detroit and will probably wind up elsewhere. We know that Soria, Nathan, and Al Alburquerque figure to be in the pen, along with left-hander Blaine Hardy and perhaps Ian Krol, though his first year in Detroit was disappointing. Flamethrower Bruce Rondon will return at some point, though it’s not clear when, as he is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Beyond that grouping, question marks and injury troubles abound, which should lead to yet another close examination of the team’s bullpen. As Tim Dierkes recently noted, the Tigers drafted Andrew Miller and almost landed him in July before the O’s beat them to the punch, so they could make a run at him this winter. However, he’d require a significant investment, possibly a four-year deal, so he could prove a tough fit as well.
Scherzer isn’t the only significant Tigers free agent hitting the open market, of course. There’s mutual interest in a return between Detroit and designated hitter Victor Martinez, but he’ll have a number of suitors offering significant money. Martinez turned in a .335/.409/.565 slash line last season and, as Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com wrote recently, he’ll be seeking out a four-year deal. The Tigers will surely attach the qualifying offer to him, but the soon-to-be 36-year-old might price himself out of Detroit, especially if he’s married to the idea of a four-year pact. If Martinez goes, the Tigers could to the trade market with an eye on Adam Lind, though they’d probably want to find a platoon partner to go with him. It’s also conceivable that Ryan Howard‘s left-handed bat could be a fit for them if the Phillies absorb the vast majority of his remaining salary.
At shortstop, Dombrowski says that the prognosis on Jose Iglesias is positive and he will be expected to take the full-time job if “he returns to the form of the past.” The Tigers could turn to Eugenio Suarez to fill the gap if Iglesias isn’t 100%, but they also might want to explore adding a depth option on a minor league deal.
The Tigers would love to have a healthy Andy Dirks back in 2015 for his projected salary of $1.63MM, but it’s far from a given that he can stay on the field after missing all of 2014 thanks to back problems. Utility man Don Kelly (.245/.332/.288 in 95 games) is also arbitration-eligible and likely on the bubble. As Dombrowski recently indicated, the Tigers could look to put Rajai Davis back in the corner outfield (his natural position) and slot J.D. Martinez on the opposite side and find a center fielder elsewhere.
Colby Rasmus is on the open market and, as recently noted by MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, guys like Dexter Fowler, Drew Stubbs, Jon Jay/Peter Bourjos, and maybe Desmond Jennings could be available via trade. Jeff recently pointed out a few potential left-handed-hitting trade possibilities that could make sense alongside Davis, such as Matt Joyce or David DeJesus, Alejandro De Aza or David Lough, Shane Victorino, Michael Saunders, and Ben Revere. This is all speculative, of course, but there should be plenty of full-time or part-time options available on the trade market for Detroit. Speaking of the outfield, Torii Hunter sounds like he wants to continue playing and would like to re-sign with the Tigers, but he’s not sure if he could accept a reduced role.
In the long term, the Tigers have a great deal of guaranteed money locked up in aging players. Meanwhile, they have shipped out a great deal of young talent including Willy Adames, Drew Smyly, and the aforementioned Thompson and Knebel. At some point, one has to wonder if the Tigers will be left with an over-the-hill core and an over-harvested farm system.
The Tigers have shown a willingness to spend in the past, but last year’s two major trades — Prince Fielder-for-Ian Kinsler and the Doug Fister swap — seem to indicate that ownership is still conscious of the bottom line. With only so much wiggle room, the Tigers will have to be creative in addressing their needs and wants this winter.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Andy Dirks is an Outfielder not an Infielder
..but I and O keys are so close together!!
What would Alex Avila be projected for in Arbitration if his team option were declined?
more than 5.4
I was waiting for this write up for obvious reasons.
Well written Zach, i find myself agreeing with the majority of what you have said.
Due to the thin farm at the moment that a lack of high draft picks from winning your division can obviously create, the Tigers are definitely more reliant on free agents and trades to supplement their core than prospects, as long as Mr Illitch keeps the pockets open it is somewhat sustainable, but long term, one does wonder.
Good piece.
So much money tied up for a team that doesn’t have a center fielder, a bullpen, a bench, any depth, and is likely to need a 5 starter, another catcher (Avila had three concussions last season alone), and a DH.
Centerfield will be tough. Bullpens vary from year to year and the Tigers are due some luck. Hopefully bouncebacks and some tweaking will do the trick. Most teams use the 5th starter spot to develop a prospect, why not us (Ray, Lobstein, Farmer)? McCann should be ready if something happens to Avila, and Holaday seems be a solid backup. If Victor decides 4 yrs is what he wants, let him go elsewhere. Bats that can’t field can always be found. N. Cruz, Cuddyer, Morse, Lind will probably all be cheaper and require no more than 4 years, or a minor trade chip. LaRoche would provide left handed power on a short contract and move Miggy to DH.
“Hopefully bouncebacks and some tweaking will do the trick”
That has been their MO for the last 2 or 3 years.
That MO has gotten them 4 AL Central Championships in a row
Is that what you are playing for? Just Central Division Championships? Then you have the right strategy in place. I would rather set my team up for the World Series. But the last time the Tigers won a WS, Ronald Reagan was president.
The playoffs are a unique environment. There is a lot of randomness. In my opinion the Tigers/Athletics/Angels had the best teams going into the playoffs and could not even make it to their division championship series. You can’t blame a team for “not winning the world series” Out of 30 teams there are 29 losing teams in baseball every year. The fact that they have won their division 4 years suggests the Tigers are at least doing SOMETHING right
I have little sympathy for teams that spend tons of money and do not get the “ring”. The fact the Royals could wrap it up tonight is justification that it is not about money but getting a team to jell together. Usually that does not happen with teams that spend a lot.
To bad more teams in baseball don’t realize that your 100% right.Look at the Giants on paper they don’t scare anybody. Baseball is a funny game.Now everyone is falling all over Maddon yet he never won the World Series with all the pitching he had in Tampa.Baseball is a funny game.
The Tigers had no bullpen.Once guys started getting hurt and Justin wasn’t Justin.No way were the Tigers one of the better teams.So they have won the division 4 years big deal.
They signed Natan who tanked and Soria who wasn’t that good. You can’t blame them for neglecting the bullpen
Ask a Cubs, Pirates, Padres, Mets fan how they would feel about winning their division once in the last 5 years
Maybe they can get Maybin cheap.
Things started going south with the Tigers when they signed Prince Fielder. Verlander may not be the same pitcher who won a Cy Young award, but the hope is he’s over the core problem & will get back to form. If his problem wasn’t just the core, but a real lack of velocity, he may be the highest paid .500 pitcher in the history of baseball, and that could spell doom for the team. Price will be ok, but I always worry about Sanchez, who seems to spend at least 1 to 2 stints a year on the DL. Miguel Cabrera may also miss the start of the season, since he’s had ankle surgery. If they don’t re-sign Martinez to DH, they will have a hard time scoring runs early on. I will not be surprised if Dombrowski pulls off a major trade at the winter meetings this year. The team really needs a little more punch in the line up, especially the bottom 3 spots.
San Fran have written off Lincecum and Zito. The Tigers can do the same for Verlander. As long as he can eat innings and be a #3, that is fine at this point.
Youre off base. Tigers went to the Series in 2012 when they signed Prince which isnt going south. Tigers signed Fielder because Vmart tore his ACL knowing full well ALL of the pros and cons. They had to do it to take advantage of our window and it didnt work out. Looking forward to the off season…
They put too much money into Fielder,that tied up the bank roll & they still have to pay out money to him. Yea they went to the WS, but it was a bad move on the Teams part. They could’ve signed Scherzer for more money if they weren’t paying Fielder 30/40 mil a year. That money could’ve gotten us BP help. So yea it was the beginning of the end.
The Tigers are headed in the right direction but they need to fix the bullpen, If money not tight sign Miller, if tight, decline Soria option and go after Miller. If can’t get Miller go after K-Rod and Nesceh combo. Resign VMart because the Triple M players is hard for any pitcher to get through. Wait for the January sales for your #5 starter or trade develops. Lind going to Tigers is interesting. Tigers with good starting pitchers, good bats, some speed in Davis, Kinsler and Carrera and better D with Jose at ss, Dirks in LF and improve bullpen is headed in the right direction.
Of the 49 hits K-Rod gave up last year, 15 were HR’s. Yikes! I like the Neshak idea. Z. Duke doesn’t throw 95 mph, will be much less than Miller.
Miller Park is bit of a homer dome. Duke would be okay but Miller is better.
I wouldn’t count on Carrera contributing much. He looked pretty overmatched down the stretch and has never been able to stick at the big league level. Also, doubt they have the $ for Miller regardless of what they do with Soria.
As a Brewer and Tiger fan just let me say you don’t want K-rod he was nothing special after the all star break.Duke had one of those years were everything went right.VMart at 4 years is throwing money away.
When did ian kinsler convert to the mound?
Danny Worth pitched! and Kinsler is better than Worth!
Re-signing Victor has to be priority number one for the Tigers, but seeing those numbers that might not be as likely as I’d hoped. I don’t think the Tigers will pony up for Max. Between his funky delivery and the health struggles of JV/Sanchez, don’t see them offering a megamillions contract to him. That Fister deal keeps looking worse, the rotation would still be set next season with JV-Anibal-Fister-Porcello-Smyly.
Funny seeing Matt Joyce and Andrew Miller both name dropped here… all roads lead to Detroit?
JV-Anibal-Fister-Porcello-Smyly
that is the dream.
Wow.
I don’t think it will ever officially be admitted, but I think Dave had to move a contract to have the money for Nathan, or he would have signed elsewhere. Of course, in hindsight…
What you said.
Plus, Smyly’s development and value were wasting away in long relief. They needed to make room for him.
Plus, they had NO major league ready starters. Jose Alvarez was next up.
I think it was also about freeing up the cash to make Max an offer, which kind of blew up on them.
They still have the cash. It just isn’t going to Max.
I thought Fister and Smyly were gone. Did I miss a trade or signing to get them back?
They are, I’m saying if not for the Fister deal, they wouldn’t have needed to give up Smyly and Jackson to get Price and their rotation for next season would be fine even without Max. Now they’ve got Price instead of Fister next season, and a big question mark instead of Smyly for the 5 spot.
That would be fine if 2015 was the last year of mlb. The way it was headed Scherzer was headed to free agency after this year and Fister next. Porcello’s free agency after next year is still uncertain. Smyly would be an unproven starter headed into 2015 and there was no organizational depth to replace Fister or Porcello. Ray May not work out, but he is much better than Jose Alvarez.
Think of it this way… Price this offseason may have MORE VALUE than Smyly, Jackson and a prospect, because almost any team with a reasonable budget would want him (not just contenders at the deadline).
They could simply trade him in the offseason and get a young pitcher and a young position player… if they wanted to.
I see. Smyly is still unproven though. Price is a nice upgrade in the rotation, especially if Verlander rebounds (Upton effect?). Teams don’t “need” a 5th starter to go deep in the playoffs anyway. Surely they have an arm or two in the minors worth getting a shot. Scherzer is dependable but could be easily replaced by Shields, the way I see it.
I feel like this is about where the Phillies were 3 years ago. Obviously, none of our guys were as good as Miggy – but, I’d say Lee was better then (in 2011) than Verlander is now (in 2014) – so it probably comes close to money/talent department. Good luck, Tigers fans.
lol thank you?
I wouldn’t LOL too much The Phillyfan has a good point these guys can age fast.
Its called having a good sense of humor.
Tigers might go the way of the Phillies or they may stay like themselves, still going to remain a diehard Tigers fan anyway.
But, one thing for sure Dave Dombroski has tricks up his sleeves and isnt Ruben Amaro.
The main difference will be DD. When the time comes, he knows how to conduct a fire sale and rebuild. Unfortunately, the clock is ticking.
My feeling with the Fielder move last offseason was that DD realized that his team was the Phillies of 3-4 years previous, and that he wasn’t going to sit around and watch them get old and overpaid as well. I understood letting Peralta go to let Iggy play a quality SS. When he traded Doug Fister for 2 good young pitchers it fit right in. And when Iggy went down and he held firm in not paying Drew a ridiculous salary but rather insisted on filling the position from his farm system, I felt he was doing the right thing.
But then the Tigers began sputtering in the bullpen – something he had half built up – and he began giving away young players trying to fix it. When that didn’t work he overreached for 1.5 years of Price thinking that somehow another starting pitcher would resolve the problem (and replace Scherzer in 2015), but all that did was run up the payroll again leaving him without a cost controlled young left-handed starter and a hole in CF. In short, there seemed to be a direction, but expediency changed it as he elected to make a run in 2014, only to see Miggy play hurt and stand in the batters box for the last 6-8 weeks if the season hitting awkwardly with his arms as he couldn’t anchor himself at the plate and hit with any consistent power.
Now the Tigers are pretty much back to where they were payroll wise a year ago. They’ve traded away a number of good, young, cost controlled players, and the fans want them to sign a bunch of new free agents – which will complete the circle they’ve made in the past year and leave them in even a worse position. DD and his staff made some very bad moves in the past year. Fact is that the Tigers run is over. If they were smart they’d take a step back, let some of the older guys go – starting with Victor and Torii in free agency, trade a few veterans including Price and Kinsler, and reload because the Twins and Sox are coming and they’re going to be getting very strong in the next few years. Trying to hang on in 2015 only guarantees that the next rebuild will take far, far longer.
1. How is their run over?
2. Miggy and Verlander both had major surgeries they were recovering from. They gutted through them and underperformed. They were far from 100% and still won the Central.
3. What Bad moves did the Tigers make? If they had kept Fister, Their payroll would be HIGHER than it is now. The Fielder for Kinsler trade saved them money in the long run.
Yes, they won the Central on the last day. If that is what you are playing for, mission accomplished. The Royals are everything the Tigers are not. Strong bullpen with athletic fast outfielders and defense that does not end. Migggy’s and Verlander’s best days are past. They will be good but not like they were.
Ultimately health at the right time and getting hot are what matter for the playoffs. Miggy has been hurt (now we see badly) each of the last 2 years.
The Tigers should not change their strategy just because of KCs run (v. if they had lost in that Wildcard game).
“Miggy has been hurt (now we see badly) each of the last 2 years.”
Verlander as well. That’s what happens to guys over 30 – see the Indians with Swisher and Borne.
“The Tigers should not change their strategy just because of KCs run (v. if they had lost in that Wildcard game).”
It seems to me they changed their strategy when they traded away the few young players with upside that hey had in order to plug hoes in the bullpen.
It’s a young man’s game. Always has been. The Tigers are an old team, with very few young players coming up.
Reminder. The Royals didn’t win the division and almost lost the one game playoff to the A’s.
They are proof of the adage, just get in, anything can happen.
They lose Shields, Aoki and Butler, with no money to replace them.
If they had a couple Hall of Famers, maybe attendance and viewership would be enough to keep them.
Explain how the Royals have no money to replace those 3? First off, they save those salaries. Next, they just got who knows how many tens of millions of dollars of a windfall for getting into the playoffs and a 7 game WS.
Clearly, no money is inaccurate. However, they still drew less than 2 million fans and have to give raises to the guys they still have. The playoff money is a one time shot in the arm. They were within an eyelash of having only one game.
Good luck replacing those guys ability wise for the money they were making.
I enjoy watching them, but I don’t think attendance of under 2 million and the budget that comes with it is a template for others to follow.
You seem to have a mindset that things like players ability and fan support remain static from year to year.
Most young, talented players get better. Most older players over 30 begin to slow down. Once fans see that their team is for real, they tend to show up in droves for years after the breakthrough.
Not sure I agree with point 3. Max and Price are a wash, but Jackson + Smyly wasn’t that much less than Fister and now they’re going to need to find/sign a new CF and 5th starter. It’s easy to say the payroll is technically lower right now, but they also don’t have a full roster right now and part of the lower payroll is contracts like Torii and Victor that were expiring anyway. By the time they plug the holes the Fister trade created, we’re likely looking at a higher payroll for the Tigers to start 2015 than they had in 2014.
As to bad deals, other than Fister I’d say the panicked deal to get Gonazalez was bad, the Price trade was questionable (albeit seemed necessary at the time), and giving up two good players for Soria to create a very expensive BP was questionable. I’ll give credit for the Fielder deal being genius, but this has definitely been an off year for DD. They dealt Fister for some long term savings but then spent the season trading like they were in win-now mode and cost themselves. If they wanted to win now, they never should have let Fister go. If they wanted to play for the long haul, those deadline deals really hamstrung them.
If they knew that Iglesias, Rondon and Putkonen were going to be lost for the season before it even began, they may have done some things differently.
What they did know for certain was Fister was leaving in 2 years, Scherzer probably in one year, and maybe Porcello in 2 years.
They also knew they didn’t have anybody in the organization to replace those three guys except an unproven Smyly.
Their run is over because they are old, with most of their players trying to get back to 90-95% of what they were, while the Royals, Twins and White Sox are building around young, talented players that are going to get better for the next 3-5 years…at least. There’s more, but I’ll stop here.
Not sure I see your logic. Show me what I am missing…
Key players still in their prime and under contract (for 2015):
Cabrera, Price, Sanchez, Porcello, Kinsler, JD Martinez, Soria (assuming option)… and maybe Dirks.
Past their Prime:
Verlander. Tigers can write him off like the Giants have written of Lincecum and Zito. He should be fine as a #3 innings eating starter.
… and Nathan, and perhaps Davis (but he can be a platoon player, next year).
Not yet in their Prime (Young):
Castellanos, Iglesias, Rondon, Ray/Lobstein, Moya.
I’ll take 4 AL Central championships than the forever rebuild mode of the Twins and White Sox
Miggy had a great August-September despite being hurt. And he hit for power
I saw the games. Even the announcers were saying he couldn’t drive the ball as he usually did. Balls that used to go in the bleachers were being caught 15 feet in front of the warning track.
I’m not saying he wasn’t hurt. It is a good thing that even being hurt he was producing
The Prince Fielder obligation begins in 2016. You have it right at the top, but you count it toward 2015 in the text of the article (4th paragraph in).
With KC losing Shield, Aoki, and Butler, I can see the division still being up for grabs next year. With the high payroll, the Tigers will have to use their dollars wisely, if they wish to fill their holes. As to their own free agents, Victor should be the priority, but only if within reason. Not so much as to dollars, but in length of contract. If he insists on 4 years, let him walk. They were proactive in getting David Price to replace Scherzer. The 5th spot should go to a prospect, or a veteran signed to a minor league contract.
For the Bullpen, they seem committed to Nathan as the closer (sunk cost). I like Soria, but not at 7MM, if he’s not going to be the closer. I don’t care what was traded for him, (again, sunk cost), there are more free agent arms with closer experience than there are teams with openings for a closer. I can only see D. Robertson going for more than 7MM. It would be better to spend that on a rare commodity, like A. Miller, who is lefty and throws 95+. Even better would be buying multiple pieces like Romo,, O’day, Duke, or Beimel.
There are no true centerfielders in free agency. They will probably have to trade for one. The minor league system is thin. The only excess at the major league level is SS, if Iglesias is healthy. I expect Suarez to be traded. Romine and H. Perez will still provide backup candidates.
Oakland will be needing a replacement for Jed Lowrie. Craig Gentry, currently their 4th outfielder(2 yrs control?), and a pitching prospect, for Suarez, would be fair to both teams.
Filling the bench should be done on a budget. The Tigers need to sign a few vets to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Ichiro, Schierholtz, Hart, should be available cheap.
The window should be open for one more year. They need to take advantage of it.
You seem to be assuming that the Royals will lose 3 pieces and not get anything back to replace them.
The Royals have learned how to win. That is not to be underestimated.
I know they will get something back. But just like the Tigers, with their free agents, what they get back will determine who takes the division. If KC was keeping all three, I don’t think the division would be in question. I also wouldn’t rule out Cleveland or Chicago. They just have farther to go.
Yeah, the division is just getting tighter with more opportunity for teams not named the Tigers. The Tigers window is not closed they just can’t roll a Mac Truck through it anymore. Miggy Will hit but how much? Can Verlander bounce back to be 90 percent of who he was? Can they sort out this heavy payroll, can they add to it? Lots of questions, that’s all.
After what the Royals did this year, D Robertson is getting at least the $10m per year that Nathan got. No way can the Tigers land Miller for less than they have tied up in Soria. I think they take his option… he can close if Nathan falters anyway. I agree they’re better off getting multiple pieces than one big name though… after Nathan/Soria, you have a ton of question marks… Al-Al, Rondon, Coke, Putkonen, Hardy… there’s upside there but no consistency.
Dombrowski has done a good job of turning over this roster in 2 years.
The 2015 Opening Day Starters likely will have only ONE position player that is the same and playing the same position as the 2013 Opening Day Roster: Avila.
Cabrera moved from 3rd to 1st.
The rest of the position players will ALL be different. That is pretty amazing.
Also amazing that the average age of Tigers is LOWER than the Royals. Castellanos, Iglesias, JD Martinez are all “next generation” players that appear to be locked into key contributor roles. Hopefully Ray, Lobstein, Krol, Moya and Rondon will join them soon.
Nice research.
Thanks!… A metric I just thought of that MLBTR should track is “Dollars committed after age 30”. Tigers have a lot of those dollars in Cabera and Verlander… they should limit the spend going forward on other players.
Having traded Fielder, who, when healthy, is far better, why would they bring in Howard for anything more than an absolute pittance? “Vast majority” would have to be very vast.
Fielder’s cost was enormous. If Howard is “next to nothing” in terms of cost, then there does not seem to be a downside to picking him up.
“Get by” with Price, Verlander, Sanchez and Porcello”. That was funny.
They didn’t have Price all year. They don’t need to replace Scherzer, Price is the replacement. They need to find a replacement for Smyly, in that price range.
Easier said than done. Smyly, for his youth, had a solid track record. Those guys are hard to find and tend to be under team control and require a lot in trade. Otherwise, you’re rolling the dice on a reclamation FA, which is the point. The Tigers had the luxury of a settled, tested rotation for years, this is the first time in a while they have no logical options for that 5th spot. Ray was supposed to be the answer, but he sure hasn’t looked ready. When the BP is as bad as Detroit’s has been, you really need to be able to count on having starters that all will regularly go at least 6.
What about Ray or Lobstein, or some other young guy?
Smyly won a similar “Spring Training Battle” a couple of years ago to get the #5 spot. He came out of nowhere.
I believe that 1-4 is very solid and can go deep into games (assuming Verlander turns into a #3 pitcher and Sanchez is healthy). No need to spend on #5.
I agree it won’t be easy. I always thought Smyly was underrated by prospect ratings and the national media.
The point was that it is easier to replace a 5th starter than a Cy Young contender.
Tigers could certainly get a pitcher of Smyly’s stature (plus a position player) if they Trade David Price. Why not extend Porcello and trade Price?
Agree. Price replaced Scherzer. Smyly will be replaced by Ray or Lobstein (who did well for them in 2014, but probably does not have a high ceiling). No need to spend on a #5 starter when 1-4 are so good.
Also, no need to spend on starters, when there are needs else where. As to trading Price, keep in mind that other teams will be looking at it as ONE YEAR of David Price. Detroit gave up what it did because it was deadline time, and they knew they were in contention. Teams aren’t as desperate in the off season.
Your review of the Tigers is very good but many of the personnel decisions the Tigers made were part of a larger business plan beyond the scope of just baseball. Its true that many moves last year have not panned out as of yet but the idea of putting a winning team on the field with big stars is part of the marketing plan. Big names sell tickets, parking, food, drink , and merchandise, etc.
Operational decisions and personnel are all part of the business plan to increase development in downtown Detroit. Ilitch Holdings Inc. is a multi billion operation centered in downtown Detroit with the Detroit Red Wings and Detroit Tigers as anchor franchises purchased with the revenue from Ilitch being the creator and sole owner of Little Ceasars Pizza Enterprises. They also own many other entertainment industries including real estate, sports bar,theater and downtown casino.
Their business plan is to purchase big name stars and field successful sports teams as a way to maximize revenue to all downtown operations.
The Red Wings have 16 divisional championships and 4 Staney Cups while becoming one of the most valuable franchises in the NHL. The Tigers have also increased in value many times over since Ilitch purchased them in 1992 with 4 division championships in a row and counting. As long as the Ilitch’s run the Tigers, they will make sure they field a competetive team to augment all their downtown interests.
I can’t imagine them picking up Soria’s option and paying him 7 mil. There are better options on the market such as Zach Duke and L Gregorsen. Nathen has to come back with what they are paying him. They are lucky Scherzer is going. They could do just as well with Lester or McCarthy and Liriano. Without V-Mart,they have to make a run at Nelson Cruz.He would be more versatile, anyway.
From reading all the comments people say the same things about the Tigers every year, how they are going to be terrible next year. Yet the have won their division 4 years in a row. But then again saying the same things every year rings true for most teams. Cubs/Astros fans have been saying how they are going to win the WS but can’t dig out of last place
I don’t see why everyone is so down on lobstein. I know he wasn’t used in the playoffs but he looked pretty good down the stretch for us. He seems like a super good and cheap option for us as a starter. Rotation of Price, Verlander, Sanchez, Porcello, and Lobstein looks not that bad to me
Maybe when the tigers wake up and send dumbrowski packing along with his little buddy al Avila along with that useless son of his the tigers just might start winning something more than the useless central
Three-way Deal between Dodgers, Mariners and Tigers: Taijun Walker to Tigers. Anibal Sanchez or Rick Porcello to Dodgers, along with a Tigers prospect(Perhaps Tyler Collins, Eugenio Suarez or Devon Travis?) Matt Kemp + about 10 million(over Kemp’s Contract) to Mariners from Dodgers. Joc Pederson to Tigers. Tigers fix CF and get a young pitcher to replace Porcello/Sanchez, Mariners get power right-handed hitter, and Dodgers help their starting pitching majorly. Tigers also free up about 12 million to sign someone like Brandon McCarthy. Thoughts, anyone?