Pablo Sandoval has a case as the best free agent hitter this offseason, and demand is strong. The third baseman reached free agency at age 28, putting an exclamation point on his year with another huge postseason.
Strengths/Pros
Sandoval is a career .294 hitter who has hit .315 or better in multiple full seasons. Known for his incredible hand-eye coordination, he makes contact about 87% of the time. His consistency in this area has been uncanny, as he’s never dipped below 86.5% or risen above 86.9% in any of his six full seasons. What’s more, Sandoval has no clear weakness, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs explained. He can hit pitches in and out of the strike zone, he can hit all types of pitches, and he can hit with two strikes. In 2008, Sandoval told Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated, “I like every pitch, no matter where it is.”
Sandoval’s weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 114 from 2013-14 ranked ninth among third basemen. This stat is park and league-adjusted, giving Sandoval some credit for playing in a pitchers’ park.
Sandoval’s postseason heroics in 2012 and 2014 are legendary. He won the World Series MVP in 2012, hitting .500 with three home runs as part of an excellent postseason overall. This year, he raked to the tune of .366/.423/.465 in the postseason. Just 28 years old, Sandoval has already collected three rings with the Giants.
Though he’s a big guy, Sandoval plays a solid third base. His ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved marks were both above average this year.
We’ve mentioned that Sandoval is just 28 years old. Such youth is a rarity for a free agent, and it’s a function of Sandoval reaching the Majors at age 21 and not signing an extension that gave up free agent years. The unique cases of Cuban free agents aside, Sandoval is the youngest prominent free agent hitter along with Colby Rasmus, who was born on the same day.
Weaknesses/Cons
For all his postseason success, Sandoval’s regular season was his worst with the bat since 2010. His 6.1% walk rate was a career-worst for a full season, and it resulted in an unspectacular .324 on-base percentage. And while Sandoval flashed 25 home run pop early in his career, he’s averaged about 15 per 600 plate appearances over the last three seasons. He’s slugged just .416 over the last two campaigns, 67th among qualified hitters. This year in the regular season, Sandoval was roughly the hitter Trevor Plouffe, Daniel Murphy, or Brett Gardner was. Those are above average hitters, but not middle of the order cornerstones.
Sandoval’s baserunning has always been a detriment, bringing his overall value down. He has totaled 7.9 wins above replacement over the last three seasons, 81st in baseball among position players. He’s in a virtual tie with guys like Jon Jay and Jed Lowrie, who might be described as useful but are certainly not considered stars or among the best as their respective positions. By measure of WAR, Sandoval ranked 14th among third basemen this year, seven spots below fellow free agent third baseman Chase Headley.
Sandoval is listed at 5-foot-11 and 245 pounds, making him one of the game’s heaviest regular position players. He’s been at least 30 pounds heavier than that at different points. Using pounds per inch, Daniel Meyer of Beyond the Box Score noted, “Deep into the history of the past 143 years of recorded baseball history no player of Sandoval’s proportions has played more than a season’s worth of games at third base,” making Sandoval a trailblazer in what he’s done already. His weight raises questions about how well he’ll age, his future durability, and when he might have to move off the hot corner. Talk about Sandoval’s weight and conditioning have followed him throughout his career, as chronicled by Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today in February this year.
Since he received and turned down a one-year, $15.3MM qualifying offer from the Giants, signing Sandoval will require draft pick forfeiture.
Personal
Sandoval was born in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela. He was born left-handed but learned to throw with his right hand at the age of nine so he could play catcher. Switch-hitting followed his switch-throwing a few years later. The Giants signed him in 2003 at age 16, as a catch-and-throw specialist behind the plate.
Sandoval is an exuberant player who usually has a smile on his face and is beloved by fans. He is nicknamed Kung Fu Panda, a name bestowed on him by teammate Barry Zito in 2008 when Sandoval scored a run by jumping over the catcher’s tag. The nickname took off, with thousands of Giants fans making Panda gear ubiquitous.
Sandoval has two daughters and resides in Venezuela in the offseason.
Market
So far in free agency, Sandoval has been pursued heavily by the Giants and is in Boston today for a meeting with the Red Sox. The Padres, Blue Jays, and White Sox have also been connected, and agent Gustavo Vasquez met with most or all of the teams at last week’s GM Meetings. Just to expand the field as far as possible, teams such as the Yankees, Tigers, Astros, Angels, and Marlins don’t have third base entirely locked down even if they haven’t been linked to Sandoval recently. Sandoval has been a member of the Giants for his entire career, and after past championships the Giants retained their players. Prior to the season, the Giants reportedly tried to start the conversation with a three-year, $40MM offer with Sandoval seeking five years and $100MM+.
With Aramis Ramirez having re-signed with the Brewers, Sandoval’s third base competition consists of Headley and perhaps Hanley Ramirez. Headley holds the advantage of not being eligible for a qualifying offer. Plus, his defense-oriented profile won’t cost nearly as much. The trade market at third base is light, with perhaps Luis Valbuena, David Freese, Casey McGehee, Pedro Alvarez, and Plouffe in the mix.
Expected Contract
Perhaps because of the postseason, his age, or the promise Sandoval showed in years like 2009, this is a player who is valued by the market well beyond his regular season statistics.
Vasquez has come right out and said his client is focused on the length of his deal and that six years would be reasonable given his age (Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reporting). Most agents don’t speak about that publicly, and most also seek one year more than they might privately expect the player to receive. I think in this case, Vasquez really does expect six years, and Sandoval will receive such an offer in the end. It is difficult to picture seven years unless that seventh year comes very cheaply.
Expectations seem to be for an average annual value of $18-20MM for Sandoval. I’m going with a six-year, $114MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
In this case I think the prediction is too bullish. I’m guessing 5 years, $90 mil
He should get more. Looking at next years 3B crop, people are going to overpay for him, Headley and probably even Hanley this offseason. Other than David Freese, their isn’t much on that list for next year.
Hanley will get the most out of this trio, but I actually think Headley is the best player from 2015 to the end of each’s career.
Wow, so much money for the kind of player he is. I guess a team is going to regret signing him in about 2 years.
His postseason really boosted his appeal.
He’s a great player, but he’s already showing signs of regress and his best years are definitely behind him. I guess it goes to show how scarce hitting is these days.
We just saw what Martin received. Usually the guy who is setting the market in these situations gets the overpaid deal from someone.
If you mean 2009 and 2011, then sure. But counting the playoffs, he’s been a similar player each of the last three years. The only meaningful difference is his power binge in the 2012 playoffs.
So Headley gets 2 years and ~60M less but hes a better player according to WAR, has a higher ceiling, and is in better shape? Plus he can handle the field alot better then Sandoval. Interesting.
I would much rather have headley as well. May not have the average, but potential is there.
In fairness WAR doesn’t tell the entire story here. Sandoval has been a more consistent force at the plate, and his postseason heroics adds a certain level of value.
Sandoval hasn’t been a force at the plate since 2011.
Chase Headley, wRC+, full seasons: 104, 98, 121, 145, 114, 103
Pablo Sandoval, wRC+, full seasons: 146, 96, 149, 118, 116, 111
Both have six full seasons. Headley has ranged in wRC+ from 98 to 145, and Sandoval from 96 to 149. Neither really appears strikingly consistent at the plate. Headley’s last truly elite offensive season was 2012, Sandoval in 2011. Headley’s a career .245/.335/.376 hitter at home and .285/.359/.440 hitter on the road. Oddly, Sandoval is a career .312/.365/.487 hitter at home and .277/.328/.444 hitter on the road. Both have been “trending downward..”
Sandoval had medium variation half to half, slightly trending downward from a 112 wRC+ in the first half to a 110 wRC+ in the second half, bottom out at a 62 wRC+ in September. Sandoval had a 128 wRC+ at home this year and a 95 wRC+ on the road.
Headley performed significantly better after getting out of San Diego, with a 88 wRC+ in the first half and a 121 wRC+ in the second half, though he also performed better at home this year than on the road. I can’t tell how much of that (114 wRC+ at home, 89 wRC+ on the road) began in NY, but yeah..
They’re very similar overall players, but I’d take Headley.
According to WAR, Ben Zobrist was the best player in the AL in 2009 and 2011. Take WAR with a grain of salt.
so he wants the highest deal for a 3b not named arod. More AAV than wright
Wright, Longoria, and Zimmerman all signed extensions though, with the only franchise they’ve ever seen, to boot. Headley is going to get paid less because his skillset is a little less offense-heavy and he doesn’t have the rings. Adrian Beltre will likely be paid six years and 96 MM for his production, but he’s clearly been worth 20 MM a year. Aramis Ramirez was too old to command 20 MM AAV or sufficient years to reach 114 MM. Many of the other top third baseman of the last fifteen years signed their FA years away on extensions – Chavez gave Oakland 6/66, Chipper signed for 6/90, 4/48 and 3/42, and Rolen signed eight years away for 90 MM total. Glaus and Beltre went for 4/45 and 5/64, respectively.
I think the key point here is salary inflation and hometown discounts by recent superstars at third base. Zimmerman will end up earning about 145 MM for 11 years, Wright 193 MM for 14 years and Longoria 144 MM for 15 years. They’ve all given their teams discounts twice. Machado should eventually blow past Sandoval’s guarantee, and it’s worth noting that, technically, Miguel Cabrera earned part of his 8/152.3 (19 MM AAV, more total money) as a third baseman.
Zimmerman’s deal is the worst one the Nats have now. He isn’t even a 3B anymore.
“Worst they have” is very relative. He’s still a good player. Desmond is signed for 2/17 or something, right now. Harper is only arb-eligible. Werth’s 7/126 turned into a solid investment, Span is severely underpaid, Rendon is obviously pre-arb, Strasburg is in arb, Zimmermann is on a 2/24 deal and about to hit FA, Gio is on a good extension, and Fister is in his final year of arbitration. Zimmerman’s deal is the “worst” of the bunch, but still isn’t an albatross. There’s a reason the Nationals are among the teams favored the do well in 2015. They’re very well balanced with many very good players rather than a single superstar.
Yep, that’s my team. Of course, it is not an albatross. Simply stated it was their worst going forward. Looking at the deal today, especially because he will be moving to 1B, add in the injury history and the deal likely won’t turn out to be a strong value.
Last three years, Ryan Zimmerman: 8.1 WAR. Pablo Sandoval, 7.9 WAR. Zimmerman had an injury-shortened 2014 but did put up a 120 wRC+ and 1.2 WAR in the 240 PA, exactly on pace for 3 WAR in 600 PA. Sandoval posted 3 WAR in 638 PA.
Difference is Pablo showed up for the playoffs, Zimmerman didn’t. Nationals signed Zimmerman with the assumption that he’d hit in the middle of the lineup in the playoffs.
Right, because Sandoval being benched in the 2010 playoffs was truly showing up. The Nationals have been bounced from the playoffs in the first round both times, and with LaRoche still at first, Zimmerman barely even played in the 2014 playoffs. Also, maybe it’s me, but I play my players to produce at all times, not just in October. Position players aren’t like top-notch relievers or aces where the schedule makes it so there’s a legitimate advantage to having them for October. Zimmerman is probably Sandoval’s equal performance-wise and is inked to a lesser deal.
Seeing the blue jays overpay for Russell Martin, the Giants may just offer him six years 120 million. The market is crazy right now
No kidding…I remember seeing 5 for 90 a few weeks ago. That’s long gone.
Is the 114 wRC+ figure you’re citing including the playoffs? His player page shows a 111 wRC+ for the season, not a 114.
That was supposed to be for 2013-14, we’ll fix that.
I feel like the market for Headley will swell up as soon as Sandoval signs, with either the Red Sox or Giants having enough money that was reserved for Sandoval to lure Headley away from New York. After all, his defensive capabilities make him an equally caliber, if not slightly more valuable, third baseman.
Somehow, I don’t think anyone is luring him away from New York unless they’re giving him 5 years and 15-17 MM AAV, which I doubt anyone does. I really think he’s returning to the Yankees.
Yankees can’t really guarantee him 150 games at third. He may choose to go somewhere that can.
They really can guarantee him 150 games of playing time. If A-Rod is healthy and fine, DH him. Teixeira and A-Rod can split DH time, McCann gets some rest off of 3B, etc. The Yankees need a 3B. A-Rod can’t play there. Prado has to man second base, and Beltran’s going to play the outfield it appears, since A-Rod is DHing. I really don’t see A-Rod playing more than 15-20 games at third base, if he plays there at all. He’s a 40-year-old who just sat out a year. If the Yankees truly want to be good, re-signing Chase Headley is one of the safer paths to guaranteeing production from third.
Hopefully Pablo likes what the sox offer. Would rather see 100MM spent elsewhere, especially when our rotation consists of MadBum and Cain, who is recovering from elbow surgery, and two #5’s in Hudson and timmy.
Sandoval is a likable player on a very successful team, which has led to him being overrated.
Look at the numbers. He’s 3 seasons removed from his last .300 season, and is a sub-20 HR guy at a power position. His best year was at age 24, and the batting average, OBP, and power have actually gone down since then. He’s not a great OBP guy. His baserunning is terrible, defense is questionable at times, and has a body type that will likely not age well. For all the attention he gets, he’s only a 2-time All Star. He’s missed significant time due to injuries in multiple seasons (2011 and 2012).
Any contract paying him more than about $15M/year is an overpay.
He relies a lot of making contact outside the zone. A skill which ages incredibly poorly. He swings at 48% of pitches outside the zone.Once the bat speed slows and the body ages, he isn;t going to be able to make contact with the balls in the dirt.
I don’t believe for one second that he is 245. He was 245 at the beginning of the year, sure, but he’s like 280 now. I believe his true measurements are more like 5 9, 280. I was that height and weight two years ago, now I’m 190. It blows my mind that Sandoval is that heavy as a professional athlete. He is going to blow out his knees the same way CC did.
You think Sandoval is 5’9″, and close to 300 pounds? That’s way off the mark.
No, it really isn’t. I was that weight, I know what it looks like. Look at pictures of him, he is at least 270. Last off season he himself said he was around 260-270.
Just looked it up, he said he was 275 last off season. He looks the same now.
Ok, but he isn’t 5’9. He has the frame for a lot (but not all) of his weight.
I think it is pretty common knowledge that he is 5 9. They exaggerate when they write those reports, he is actually more like 5 9. 5 10 at the tops.
Anyways, it really doesn’t matter how tall he is. He is over 100 pounds overweight. That’s ridiculous. He probably has around 35% body fat. That isn’t healthy by any measure, and 1-2 inches doesn’t change a thing.
He is officially 5-11 and 245.
If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.
The weight number seems like a fantasy, if only because it changes, but it’s pretty difficult to change a person’s height.
Wasnt he 5 10 when he was a catcher, then magically jumped to 5 11 when he moved to third? Posted numbers like these aren’t really reliable. Remember, when they listed Andre the Giant as 7 foot 5? The dude was 7 1. >.<
245 at the beginning of the 2014 season .. You even said it . I’m sure MLB doesn’t update height and weight monthly 🙂
Victor Martinez put up better numbers, so Sandoval shouldn’t be making more than Martinez’s new annual average, which I think is around $16 million.
So you’re just gunna throw the fact that Sandoval plays defense and is 7 years younger than Victor out the window?
good but not great. he is overhyped.
Pablo Sandoval is a must for the White Sox. The opportunity is perfect now. His large contract can be absorbed by the team’s payroll flexibility, he has the bulk of his prime ahead of him, and the Sox’s draft pick protection against a compensation pick all provide an enormous step toward championship contention.
As much I love To see Pablo in the white sox uniform, I don’t think it’s gonna happen. I rather see the sox go after james sheilds, Colby rasmus, josh outman and zach duke. And hopefully we’ll explore trade options with conor gilaspie, Dayan viciedo, and one of our 2nd baseman prospect like Micah Johnson, for pitching, 3rd baseman, and a LF.
Some dumb team will sign him to that ridiculously foolish contract. He should get something like a 3-year deal, with a higher average annual value. His weight problems necessitate this. He reportedly gained 20 pounds during the 2014 season!
I dispute the claim he’s the best hitter on the market. Hanley Ramirez is the best, going by career numbers and recent seasons. Pablo’s production from the right side has steadily declined the last few seasons, resulting in him being a platoon hitter in 2014. He had a .563 OPS against lefties in 205 plate appearances in 2014!
His relatively young age is negated by his consistent weight problems. So, he shouldn’t receive a premium for his age.
Fabiani,
How has his “weight problems” hindered him? He came in lighter at the beginning of last season and, I would assume, he is going to do the same next season. Where is the problem?
No better a hitter than Plouffe, Murphy or Gardner, and no bigger an overall contributor, per WAR, than Jon Jay.
Trevor Plouffe, Jon Jay.
Swings at masses of out of the zone pitches, a “skill” which will deteriorate rapidly, if you even class it as a skill at all, rather than a weakness, which i would.
And looking for 6/7 years at over $100m.
Just stop and think about that.
Someone is going to see a few Postseason hits (which hes done very well at admittedly, but tiniest of sample sizes mean nothing to me) and hand him a contract they will regret very quickly.
Ive made my point many a time on Sandoval on other threads but i just cannot get my head around him as a FA commanding what he likely will.
Trevor Plouffe, Jon Jay.
I wonder when they will ask for their $100m extensions?…
Ok, I know I’m a Dodger fan so I don’t exactly love Sandoval, but 6 years/$114???? I mean, he’s been amazing in the World Series, but I don’t know, seems way too much for a powerless 3B with weight issues…
He’s done a great job for the Giants regardless of his lack of power and weight issues.
Headley is a better overall player, will likely play 3rd base for the next 5 years (not have to be moved to a DH spot soon), will come at a 40% discount (to Panda) and will not cost a top draft pick.
This is as “no brainer” as they come. I wish the Tigers would go after Headley and move Castellanos to a corner OF spot.
If you really care so much about “clutch” postseason, get Delmon Young and Headley for much less than Panda on his own.
As a fan who has watched Headley choke at the plate over and over again, Sandoval would be a welcomed replacement. Heck, Solarte outplayed Headley for the remainder of last season. I don’t get why people are so enamored with Chase.
Please let this one go, White Sox