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Archives for June 2015

Diamondbacks Draft Dansby Swanson First Overall

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The Diamondbacks have selected Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson with the first overall pick in the 2015 Rule 4 amateur draft. Swanson ranked atop the draft prospect leaderboard compiled by Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel, also ranking second among draft prospects according to MLB.com and Baseball America, while placing third on the Top 100 of ESPN’s Keith Law. Despite the fact that he was not seen as the consensus No. 1 talent by each of those outlets, Swanson was projected to go first overall by each, as the D-Backs are believed to have had their eye on him for quite some time.

Scouting reports peg Swanson as a strong candidate to remain at shortstop and praise both his speed and on-base skills, making him a candidate to hit at the top of a Major League batting order. While he doesn’t currently project as a major home run threat, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis at MLB.com note that he presently has gap power and outstanding makeup. BA writes that Swanson can hit the ball to all fields, and the main question about him defensively is whether or not he has a plus arm. (Regardless, BA notes that most expect him to stay at shortstop.)

Law notes that Swanson has more power than collegiate shortstop peers Alex Bregman (LSU) and Kevin Newman (Arizona), both of whom also project as first-round picks. His colleagues Eric Longenhagen and Chris Crawford wrote a lengthier scouting report opining that Swanson could eventually develop 15 to 20 home run power to go along with his speed. Back in April, McDaniel called him a plus runner with 10- to 13-homer power that is also a plus runner — a nice No. 6-10 pick in most drafts but a more appealing commodity in this, a thin draft class.

The No. 1 overall selection in this year’s draft comes with a slot value of $8,616,900, though the Diamondbacks don’t have to spend the entirety of that sum on Swanson. In fact, based on most reports, it seems unlikely that they will. Swanson will add a top-tier prospect to a D-Backs farm system that is fronted by right-handed pitchers Braden Shipley, Aaron Blair, Touki Toussaint and Yoan Lopez. His addition gives the team a high-ceiling position player to join that quartet of promising pitchers. It is of further significance, because Swanson represents the first selection made under general manager Dave Stewart, senior vice president of baseball operations De Jon Watson and scouting director Deric Ladnier, each of whom is new to their position and to the D-Backs organization.

Final Draft Notes: D’Backs, Aiken, Astros

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With the final countdown on, here are a few last-minute draft rumors making the rounds. There remains little clarity — except, perhaps, at the very top.

  • Late updates to mock drafts show a clear consensus that the Diamondbacks will take Vandy shortstop Dansby Swanson first overall. Check them out if you’re interested in final prognostications: MLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs. It is still possible that Arizona is holding negotiations with a few other players of interest, as multiple reports suggest, to keep open the possibility of freeing additional cash for later selections.
  • Last year’s first overall choice, Brady Aiken, has obviously seen a major value drop but still has ample talent. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that Aiken has interest from the Cubs, who are unlikely to reach for him with their first pick, as well as the Rays (who choose 13th overall) and Dodgers (picking 24th).
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says that his team intends to spend all of its $17MM+ draft pool money, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. Houston has the most cash to spend in large part due to its failure to sign Aiken, of course, which left the club with both the second and fifth overall selections.
  • The time for speculation is over now anyway, of course … the draft is about to start!

Braves Release Donnie Veal

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JUNE 8: The Braves have released Veal, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link).

JUNE 1: The Braves announced today that they have designated lefty reliever Donnie Veal for assignment for the second time this season. Right-hander Cody Martin will be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to take Veal’s place on the roster.

Veal, 30, was also designated for assignment by the Braves back on May 5, but he accepted an outright assignment to remain with the organization after clearing waivers. Atlanta selected Veal’s contract once again last Wednesday, but his second stint on the 40-man roster will be short-lived.

With 69 big league innings under his belt, Veal has a good bit of experience in the Majors, but his struggles with the Braves have been substantial. The former second-round draft pick (Cubs, 2005) has appeared in five games with the Braves this year and allowed runs in each of them — seven total in just 4 1/3 innings. He has a career 5.48 ERA in the Majors, but Veal comes with a track record of success in the minors. This year, he’s fired 16 scoreless innings for Gwinnett, posting a strong 13-to-2 K/BB ratio in that time.

Phillies Sign Juan Gutierrez To Minor League Deal

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The Phillies announced that they’ve signed right-hander Juan Gutierrez to a minor league contract. The 31-year-old Gutierrez, a client of Godoy Sports, had recently opted out of his minor league deal with the Giants. He’ll head to Triple-A Lehigh Valley for the time being.

Gutierrez joins Kevin Correia as the second player to sign with the Phillies today after opting out of his minor league deal. (Correia, however, received a big league deal.) He’ll provide the Phillies with an experienced depth piece that should have a chance to join a somewhat overworked bullpen that has relied very heavily on Jonathan Papelbon, Ken Giles, Jeanmar Gomez, Justin De Fratus and the struggling Luis Garcia. (Lefty Jake Diekman, one of their most oft-used relievers, was just optioned to Triple-A due to his own struggles.)

Last year, Gutierrez tallied a 3.96 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 36.8 percent ground-ball rate in 63 2/3 innings. His fastball averaged a healthy 93.5 mph, and his career mark in that regard is 94 mph. Gutierrez struggled a bit early on in the Triple-A season this year and wound up posting a 4.39 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 26 2/3 innings with Sacramento. He made a rare start on his final day with the Giants organization and fired three scoreless innings, yielding one walk and one hit with a pair of strikeouts before electing free agency. Gutierrez has a 4.49 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 286 1/3 big league innings.

Phillies Sign Kevin Correia To Major League Deal

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2:35pm: Correia will receive a $650K base salary and can earn up to $400K via incentives, tweets ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. The prorated amount of that salary comes out to about $427K from here through season’s end.

1:53pm: The Phillies announced that they have signed right-hander Kevin Correia to a Major League deal. Correia, a client of Damon Lapa and Scott Leventhal’s All Bases Covered Sports Management, will join the team for its series in Cincinnati.

Correia, 34, wrapped up a two-year $10MM last season that was originally issued by the Twins (though he finished the deal as a member of the Dodgers). The veteran hurler was a serviceable source of league-average innings for the 2013 Twins, totaling 185 1/3 frames with a 4.18 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 44 percent ground-ball rate. He was hit hard in 2014, though, finishing with a 5.44 ERA and a .301/.345/.473 opponents’ batting line.

That rough year led to a minor league deal with the Mariners for Correia, but he went the free agent route late in Spring Training upon learning that he wouldn’t make Seattle’s 25-man roster. Correia returned to the Giants — the organization that originally selected him in the fourth round of the 2002 draft — and pitched quite well for their Triple-A affiliate. In 37 2/3 innings there, Correia notched a 3.58 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.

In the press release announcing this move, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said: “Kevin fills a need by adding depth, durability and experience to our pitching staff. We hope that he can give us quality innings to take some heat off the bullpen.” That seems to indicate that Correia will be given a shot to hold down a spot in the starting rotation — a fact that is also evidenced by the fact that that the team optioned young righty Severino Gonzalez to Triple-A Lehigh Valley yesterday.

Correia will join Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams and Sean O’Sullivan in the rotation, though it’s fair to speculate that the starting five could look markedly different in a few months’ time. Hamels and Harang are prime trade candidates, and Correia himself could even be moved if he is throwing well at the deadline. Prospects such as Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin and Ben Lively are in the mix to get a look in the Majors this season, so Correia’s role will be to help bridge the gap to a group that the Phillies hope can help to compose their rotation for years to com.

2015 MLB Draft Primer

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The 2015 Rule 4 Amateur Draft will begin tonight at 7pm ET, when the Diamondbacks will be on the clock with the first overall pick. For those who haven’t followed the draft to this point but are interested in a quick crash course on tonight’s event, MLBTR has you covered.

First, a brief recap. Each team has an allotted spending pool from which their signing bonuses come. The league has assigned a slot value to each pick in rounds one through 10, and a club’s draft pool is the sum of the slot values for each of their picks. Players selected after the 10th round do not count toward the pool, so long as they receive no more than $100K. Anything over $100K would count toward the pools. (e.g. Arizona signs 12th-round pick for $150K — $50K comes out of its draft pool.)

Should a team exceed its draft pool by five percent, it will pay a 75 percent luxury tax on the overage. A five to 10 percent overage results in a 75 percent tax and the loss of next year’s first-round pick. A 10 to 15 percent overage results in a 100 percent tax and the loss of a first- and second-round pick in 2016. And, exceeding the draft pool by more than 15 percent results in a 100 percent tax and the loss of two first-round picks.

However, teams are not bound to the individual slot values. For instance, the Astros could cut a deal with a player with the No. 2 overall pick ($7.42MM slot value) and sign him for $6MM, then use the $1.42MM they saved on that slot to entice tough-to-sign picks further down the draft board. (For those interested, I provided a breakdown of changes in draft pools from 2014 to 2015, sorted from largest increase to largest decrease, back in March.)

Under these rules, no team has been willing to pay the price of forfeiting a future pick, so no team has exceeded its pool by more than five percent.

All that said, here’s a rundown of the draft order, slot values, the top ranked draft prospects (via multiple outlets) as well as mock drafts from some experts who have devoted seemingly endless hours of their time over the past few months to provide the best insight possible.

Draft Order/Slot Value (slot values via Baseball America)

  1. Diamondbacks — $8,616,900
  2. Astros (compensation for failure to sign 2014 No. 1 pick Brady Aiken) — $7,420,100
  3. Rockies — $6,223,300
  4. Rangers — $5,026,500
  5. Astros — $4,188,700
  6. Twins — $3,889,500
  7. Red Sox — $3,590,400
  8. White Sox — $3,470,600
  9. Cubs — $3,351,000
  10. Phillies — $3,231,300
  11. Reds — $3,141,600
  12. Marlins — $3,051,800
  13. Rays — $2,962,100
  14. Braves — $2,842,400
  15. Brewers — $2,692,700
  16. Yankees — $2,543,300
  17. Indians — $2,393,600
  18. Giants — $2,333,800
  19. Pirates — $2,273,800
  20. Athletics — $2,214,000
  21. Royals — $2,184,200
  22. Tigers — $2,154,200
  23. Cardinals — $2,124,400
  24. Dodgers — $2,094,400
  25. Orioles — $2,064,500
  26. Angels — $2,034,500
  27. Rockies (compensation for loss of free agent Michael Cuddyer) — $2,004,600
  28. Braves (compensation for loss of free agent Ervin Santana) — $1,974,700
  29. Blue Jays (compensation for loss of free agent Melky Cabrera) — $1,944,800
  30. Yankees (compensation for loss of free agent David Robertson) — $1,914,900
  31. Giants (compensation for loss of free agent Pablo Sandoval) — $1,885,000
  32. Pirates (compensation for loss of free agent Russell Martin) — $1,855,000
  33. Royals (compensation for loss of free agent James Shields) — $1,825,200
  34. Tigers (compensation for loss of free agent Max Scherzer) — $1,795,100
  35. Dodgers (compensation for loss of free agent Hanley Ramirez) — $1,756,100
  36. Orioles (compensation for loss of free agent Nelson Cruz) — $1,711,900

Draft Rankings/Scouting Reports

Free Rankings/Scouting Reports

  • Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel has created a sortable draft leaderboard, in which you can filter McDaniel’s Top 202 prospects by overall rank, risk factor, Major League ETA, future value (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and more. The leaderboard contains brief scouting reports and videos for many players, and there’s a separate tab to sort prospects by individual tools for those who wish to even further in-depth.
  • Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com have ranked the Top 200 draft prospects, providing ratings for each players’ tools on the 2-8 scouting scale in addition to full scouting reports and video of each player.

Subscription-Only Scouting Reports

  • Baseball America’s list of Top 500 draft prospects and video of the top 100 or so can be viewed by all. For their scouting reports on all 500 players, a subscription is required and highly recommended. BA’s list is the deepest of the bunch, and the rankings themselves (names only) are available for free to the public.
  • ESPN’s Keith Law ranks his Top 100 prospects in this year’s draft class, and ESPN Insiders can see full scouting reports as well as current grades of individual tools on the 20-80 scale as well as future projections for each of those tools.

Mock Drafts

  • Mayo and Callis published a dual mock draft today, with each taking his final stab at the first round. The MLB.com duo is in agreement that the first three picks will be Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson (D-Backs), Louisiana State shortstop Alex Bregman (Astros) and prep shortstop Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), respectively. The differences begin at No. 4, though, where Callis has the Rangers selecting UC Santa Barbara righty Dillon Tate, but Mayo feels Texas will select prep outfielder Daz Cameron (whose father played a game or two in his day as well).
  • BA’s John Manuel has posted his sixth and final mock draft (he has links to all previous iterations within). He, too, has Swanson, Bregman and Rodgers with the top three picks, followed by Cameron, Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi (Astros) and Illionis southpaw Tyler Jay (Twins).
  • Law’s final mock draft begins the same way — Swanson to the D-Backs, Bregman to the Astros and Rodgers to the Rox. However, he has the Rangers selecting prep outfielder and local product Trenton Clark before the Astros grab Benintendi, with Tate slipping to the Twins at No. 6.
  • The top three picks in McDaniel’s final mock draft are the same as in the other three — Swanson, Bregman and Rodgers. Like Law, he has the Rangers nabbing Clark, but McDaniel is the only of the group to have the Astros selecting prep outfielder Kyle Tucker — the brother of current Astros outfielder Preston Tucker.

Astros Designate Matt Dominguez For Assignment

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The Astros announced that they have designated third baseman Matt Dominguez for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for top prospect Carlos Correa, whose promotion is now official.

It’s been a swift fall for Dominguez, who just one year ago was rumored to have been offered an extension worth roughly $14.5MM over five years (plus two option years for the Astros). He’s spent the entire season in Triple-A so far after serving as Houston’s regular third baseman for all of 2013-14 and much of the 2012 season as well.

Dominguez’s best season came in 2013 when he batted .241/.286/.403 with 21 homers in 152 games. Despite the lackluster OBP, Dominguez rated out well in terms of Defensive Runs Saved, leading to a 2.2 rWAR season. (Fangraphs’ version of WAR, which uses UZR in its equation, rated him at just shy of one WAR.) Dominguez’s glove has long drawn positive reviews from scouts, and he clearly has some power in his bat, as evidenced by the .168 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) mark that he posted from 2012-13.

Dominguez hit 16 home runs last year, but he saw his walk rate dip even further while his strikeout rate climbed to almost 21 percent. The resulting .215/.256/.330 batting line was enough that the Astros saw fit to acquire Luis Valbuena and sign Jed Lowrie to serve as upgrades on the left side of the infield. So far in Triple, Dominguez is batting .251/.289/.371.

Despite the struggles, Dominguez is still just 25 years of age. The former first-round pick won’t turn 26 until late August, and if a light were to turn on with another club, Dominguez could be controlled through at least the 2018 season. In fact, that number will soon jump to 2019. Dominguez entered the year with two years, 62 days of service, meaning he’d have needed 110 days of service this year to reach the three-year mark. However, there are just 119 days of the regular season remaining, so it seems unlikely that he’ll end up reaching that mark.

Because of his youth, big league track record, remaining remaining minor league options and upside, I’d personally be surprised to see Dominguez clear waivers. More likely, it seems that the Astros may try to trade him to a team in need of some help at the hot corner. The Giants have had some struggles at third base this season, as have the Tigers, White Sox and Brewers. The Indians just demoted Lonnie Chisenhall to Triple-A, though they may prefer to give Giovanny Urshela a tryout before moving on to other options.

Speculating a bit further, the Angels were said to be seeking a controllable young third baseman this winter, and while they acquired Kyle Kubitza from the Braves to give them an option, it’s at least possible that Dominguez intrigues them. And, in last year’s leak of trade notes from the Astros, the Marlins were said to have expressed interest in a trade for Dominguez, though Miami does have Martin Prado at the position now.

AL Central Notes: Price, Indians, Lindor, Santana

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In an interview with Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (video link), Tigers ace David Price discussed his lasting connection with the Vanderbilt baseball program, the absence of Victor Martinez in his team’s lineup, his early picks for the AL Cy Young and, perhaps most interestingly to MLBTR readers, his upcoming free agency. Price says that free agency hasn’t been on his mind very often throughout the year to this point, as he tries to focus on the season at hand. Price adds that winning “takes precedent over everything else” when thinking about where he will play after 2015, but he feels the culture of the team will be important as well. “I want to have fun,” said Price. “There are some teams that are just a no-fun zone. I don’t care how much money I’m making. To me, I couldn’t imagine waking up and [not wanting to go to the field]. I couldn’t handle that. I’ll quit before that happens.” The 2012 Cy Young winner also reiterated that he wants a chance to win both immediately and long-term.

More from the AL Central…

  • Zack Meisel of Cleveland.com looks at the Indians’ recent decision to option Lonnie Chisenhall and Jose Ramirez in favor of Zach Walters and Giovanny Urshela. Ramirez’s demotion was long overdue, says Meisel, but a lack of alternatives in the Majors delayed the decision. Meisel notes that the clock is ticking on a promotion for top prospect Francisco Lindor, and he also wonders if Chisenhall might’ve “burned through his last chance” with the Indians after another demotion.
  • Via MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link), Indians GM Chris Antonetti said that Lindor was, in fact, a consideration to join the big league roster. However, Lindor has been bothered by some minor hand and core issues and is not currently at 100 percent. As Meisel noted in his piece, Lindor is slashing .295/.363/.446 over the past month after a slow start, so it’s fair to wonder just how much longer it will be before the consensus Top 10 prospect joins Cleveland’s big league roster. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tweets that he gets the sense that the team wants to see Lindor consistently perform at the Triple-A level before a promotion.
  • The Twins have optioned struggling shortstop Danny Santana to Triple-A Rochester and recalled DH Kennys Vargas in his place. Both switch-hitters were in Minnesota’s Opening Day lineup, but each endured struggles. Santana received a longer leash than Vargas, who was optioned in early May, but the team seems to have run out of patience for the time being. Santana batted just .218/.235/.291 just one year after hitting .319/.353/.472 as a rookie. He’ll work on rediscovering his stroke and also cutting down on the errors at shortstop, but I’d imagine that with Jorge Polanco performing well at Double-A and being a more well-regarded defender, there’s a chance that Polanco could leapfrog Santana. As for Vargas, the hulking slugger hit .308/.403/.519 with three homers in 16 Triple-A games. He should get another chance to hold down Minnesota’s DH spot for the duration of the season. However, Twins DHs are hitting just .249/.308/.328, so if Vargas struggles, that may be an area they consider short-term upgrades this summer. In fact, I could envision the Twins looking for help at either of those positions in July, if they hang in near the top of the division.

Astros To Promote Vincent Velasquez

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The Astros will promote right-handed pitching prospect Vincent Velasquez today, reports MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He will start Wednesday’s game against the White Sox, according to McTaggart.

Vincent Velasquez

Velasquez entered the season ranked No. 56 on the Top 100 prospect list of ESPN’s Keith Law. He currently ranks 74th on MLB.com’s list, and he also ranked 75th according to both Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs and to Baseball Prospectus prior to Opening Day. Suffice it to say, the 2010 second-round pick is regarded as one of the most promising young arms in all of baseball.

Law says that Velasquez has the aresenal of No. 2 starter, including a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus changeup and a slider that sits 82-84 mph but still needs work, as it tends to flatten out. The consensus on Velasquez is that he may rank higher on all of these lists with a better track record of health. He missed the 2011 season due to Tommy John surgery and had a pair of non-arm-related injuries in 2014 that limited him to 63 2/3 innings. McDaniel adds that his arm troubles date back even to his high school days, where he had a stress fracture in his elbow and a ligament strain during his junior year. His 2015 season didn’t begin until May 8, but in five starts at the Double-A, Velasquez has worked to a 1.37 ERA with 37 strikeouts against nine walks in 26 1/3 innings.

For the Astros, Velasquez will be the second highly touted young arm to join their rotation in the past month or so. Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr., a 2012 first-rounder and Velasquez’s Double-A teammate as recently as four weeks ago, has made a nearly seamless transition to the Majors by tossing 24 innings of 1.88 ERA ball.

The need for reinforcements in Houston’s rotation is palpable. Despite the brilliant season of ace Dallas Keuchel (1.85 ERA in a league-leading 87 2/3 innings) and that excellent effort from McCullers, the Astros have a collective 4.14 ERA from their rotation, which ranks 17th in the Majors. Collin McHugh has yet to rediscover his 2014 breakout form, Scott Feldman had an ERA of 4.80 before going down for about six weeks with knee surgery, and Roberto Hernandez has a 5.18 ERA to show for his 66 innings of work. Brett Oberholtzer, Sam Deduno, Brad Peacock and Asher Wojciechowski have all made starts as well but have produced a mix of ineffective performances and injuries to this point.

McTaggart writes that Velasquez will be taking Hernandez’s spot in the rotation, so it would seem that the 23-year-old Velasquez (he turned 23 yesterday) has a chance to nail down a permanent rotation spot with an impressive performance. Presently, he’ll join Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers and Oberholtzer in the rotation, though Feldman will be back in about five weeks and presumably step back into the rotation.

Quick Hits: Lindor, Pirates, Hart, Rangers

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When Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reported that the Indians had demoted Jose Ramirez earlier today, there was immediate speculation that the Tribe might call up top prospect Francisco Lindor.  Instead, Zach Walters and Giovanny Urshela will join the Cleveland roster while Ramirez and Lonnie Chisenhall have been optioned to Triple-A, the Indians officially announced.  Lindor, a consensus top-nine prospect in baseball, is hitting .269/.342/.393 over 231 Triple-A plate appearances this season.  The Tribe might feel he needs a bit more seasoning, though many pundits feel it’s just a matter of time before Lindor is at Progressive Field.  Here’s some more from around the majors…

  • The Pirates’ offseason signings have already proven to be a bargain, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes.  A.J. Burnett, Francisco Cervelli, Jung Ho Kang and Francisco Liriano will earn $28.5MM this season, and the quartet had already combined for 5.3 WAR over the Bucs’ first 54 games.  Under the general estimate that one WAR costs $7MM, the four Pirates have provided $37.1MM of value with two-thirds of the season still left to play.
  • In another piece from Sawchik, he notes that Corey Hart’s roster spot seems tenuous since the veteran is receiving so little playing time.  Hart has just 42 plate appearances this season, in part because the Pirates have faced surprisingly few left-handed opposing starters but also because of Hart’s struggles at the plate over the last two seasons.
  • Since taking Mark Teixeira fifth overall in 2001, the Rangers have had very little luck with their first round picks, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes (though Texas was able to trade some of those prospects for meaningful stars like Cliff Lee).  This trend could be changing, however, now that Chi Chi Gonzalez and Joey Gallo are in the bigs and playing well early in their young careers.
  • It’s time for the Reds to begin a rebuild, Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer opines.  While club owner Bob Castellini is very competitive and is loath to move on from this generation of Reds stars, Daugherty notes that with a thin minor league system, Cincinnati needs to reload on young talent sooner rather than later.

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