In the latest edition of his 10 Degrees column, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan looks at what some of the offseason’s top free agents are likely to fetch on the open market after conversations with two GMs, two agents and two front office personnel executives. All agree that David Price is a lock to receive more than $200MM though contract predictions fluctuate with other players. Chris Davis, for instance, inspired guesses that ranged from a $60MM deal to a $150MM deal. I agree with Passan that guessing on the high side is the better option, since power bats are at a premium; nine figures seems the minimum for Davis’ next contract. Here’s some more from Passan’s column and elsewhere around baseball…
- Jason Heyward “will be the bellwether of this market,” as his unique case as a player who brings youth (26 years old) and elite defense to free agency rather than an elite bat will set the tone for other signings. His youth could play a different role in the contract, as one GM thinks Heyward could sign an eight-year, $175MM deal with an opt-out clause after four years. This way Heyward could hit free agency again when he’s only 30 years old and in good position for another major contract. Passan notes that Heyward is represented by Excel Sports Management, and Excel’s Casey Close has negotiated high-profile opt-out clauses in recent contracts for clients Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke (though it’s worth mentioning that Heyward isn’t represented by Close himself).
- Two free agents who were dealt at the trade deadline have greatly harmed (Johnny Cueto) and helped (Yoenis Cespedes) their chances at a major deal this winter due to their performances with their new clubs. Passan notes that Mets ownership finds itself in a Catch-22 with Cespedes. Letting him leave would enrage a fanbase that already feels the club doesn’t spend enough, yet Cespedes has enough flaws in his game that the Mets could easily find themselves burned by giving him a massive long-term contract. All six of Passan’s sources feel Cespedes’ market will begin at $125MM and perhaps go as high as $160MM.
- Zack Greinke’s age will keep him from getting a seven- or eight-year commitment when he opts out of his Dodgers contract, though Passan feels Greinke could look to set a new record for highest average annual value in the form of a five-year, $175MM deal.
- In his ranking of the five open GM positions in baseball, Joel Sherman of the New York Post lists the Red Sox job as the most appealing given the team’s financial resources, passionate fanbase and existing talent in both the majors and minors. The downside is that the Boston job carries a particular amount of pressure, and a new GM may not have autonomy with Dave Dombrowski leading the baseball operations department. Sherman lists the pros and cons of the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Angels and Brewers openings, though as one executive puts it, “There is no perfect job. If you wait for the perfect one, you will wait forever….You have to figure out how to accentuate the positives and fix or navigate around the warts.”
- Former Royals hurler Brian Bannister is the first Red Sox director of pitching analysis and development, a position specifically created by Dombrowski to match Bannister’s unique skill-set. Peter Gammons, in his latest piece for GammonsDailycom, looks at the work Bannister has already done with Boston’s pitchers in his former capacity as a pro scout, and how Bannister is blending mound experience with knowledge gleaned from analytical data.
- Matt Harvey is scheduled to make his next start against the Yankees on Sunday, a Mets team source tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Harvey was only supposed to start once more after that, though manager Terry Collins told Ackert and other reporters that workload wouldn’t do enough to keep the ace sharp for the playoffs. “We got to get him on the mound a little more consistently,” Collins said. “Every 12 days is not a good scenario….We have to have Matt Harvey ready to pitch. He doesn’t need to have 15 days off. We got to have him ready.” The Mets could use Harvey on regular turns in the rotation but just on limited innings and pitch counts in each outing, with a reliever ready to “piggyback” the rest of the outing.
I like Price, but $200MM+ over 7 or 8 years is going to look bad in 3 years.
More than likely, as is the case with all these big contracts. I think Price will be able to age quite well however. He has great mechanics, great stuff, and very good command. I think he is the safest bet to hold up well when comparing all of the aces on the market this offseason (Greinke is probably the second, but if he gets a 7-year deal, I wouldn’t feel confident in giving it to him).
Hypothetically, if Price gets 7/$210MM and Grienke gets 7/$190MM, which would be a better deal?
Greinke has a slightly higher ceiling than Price, so I’d say he’s a bargain at under 200M.
Do you seriously think an age 32 David Price is going to be bad? Why???
Could he turn into Verlander? Could he end up needing Tommy John surgery midway of the contract and be out for over a year?
I think $200M contracts should be for pitchers that hit free agency in their mid 20s, late 20s. I’d give that money to Kershaw and Bumgarner, not a 31 year of Price.
If a player can opt out, the team with his contract should be able to as well.
They’re free to negotiate that into the deal. Aaron Hill had something like that in Toronto where the Jays had 3 team options but had to exercise them together. Effectively the same situation.
It all depends on what is negotiated. Some contracts have mutual options. Some contracts have team options. The Phillies, for example, will opt out of the Cliff Lee contract after this year.
I vote Philly over Boston all day
Boston has similar financial resources, a better young core, similar farm system. All of their bad deals (Hanley, Sandoval, Porcello) still have upside and can turn it around while the Phillies (Howard, Lee, Ruiz) are just about dead money.
In addition, less autonomy is not always a bad thing. There are plenty of young, aspiring GMs out there who have yet to had a chance at the big seat, and everyone knows that DD is going to be the primary shot-caller. If you come into Boston as a new GM and things begin to fall apart, you’re not shouldering nearly as much of the blame as you would be elsewhere (giving you some relative job security in a demanding, high-cash high-profile environment), and if things go well, you still get a fair share of praise and most importantly an extraordinarily sexy resume booster.
Also if I were taking orders from anyone in baseball (and if my image were a reflection of that executive’s talents) it would be DD.
Red Sox have a great young core, a better recent history of winning, possibly the top farm system in baseball,and the most financial resources beside LA and NY.
Good stuff here. Good job by Passan and good summary by Mark. Exactly what fans want to see on a site like this!
Lots of open questions:
1. How much lower will Cueto’s contract be than Price’s. What about Zimmerman? Will those “relative bargains” drive down Price’s contract?
2. Is Cespedes’s recency bias worth $25MM for 6 weeks of being a hot hitter?
3. If team wants Grienke, why not give him a long contract? Even if the back end years are wasted 100%, it is better to do that than pay so much upfront that it puts your team over the luxury tax threshold. Having dead money on the backend is a better option.
Price has pitched in the AL. But unless Cueto is injured, AL teams need be careful about extending long-term, excessive contracts to Greike and Zimmermann based on their big numbers pitching in the NL. Think Jeff Samardzija as well.
Greinke pitched in the AL too.
Greinke was better in the AL than in the NL until this season….
You mean pitchers don’t always perform better in the NL? Who’d a thunk it?
Basically every ace-like pitcher mentioned only had his best success in the NL which is why I think Price is going to fetch a BIG deal. Price can pitch on anyone AL team and make the highest paying teams like Yankees and Red Sox look foolish. Samardjazi can’t say that and Greinke might not want to and/or do well back in the AL.
Yes, Cespedes has hit better with the Mets, but he wasn’t exactly cold with the Tigers. 25 hrs and 100 rbi with a .290 average was his pace with Detroit.
1. Whoever signs Heyward to a $175mil+ deal will regret it.
2. Cueto needs to sign with an NL team.
1. Heyward is 26 and entering his prime: we have not seen the best of him yet. He will more than likely be a bargain even if he gets 10 years (age 26-35).
2. Strong agree.
10 year contracts are almost ALWAYS bad at the end. I really do not understand why teams give them or give opt outs or give no trades. I would understand if the players gave something in return, ie. a cheaper salary, but they don’t.
1) Look at Heyward’s career numbers – he is in his prime. What you see is what you get.
2) Teams do not give out 9 figure contracts for potential.
A 26 year old 4-5 win player is exactly what should get a 9 figure contract. Maybe you should look at his numbers.
While I disagree that we haven’t seen the best of him, he seems like a pretty consistent 5 WAR and probably will be for the next 5-6 years. imo, he’s possibly the safest long-term mega-deal we’ve ever seen. I would definitely rather have Heyward at 8-10 years at $20MM per season than Cespedes at 5-7 years at $22-25MM per, which seem to be their early projections. I love what Cespedes is doing for the Mets, but it doesn’t overshadow his career numbers.
Finally someone gets it.
I really doubt any team is going to give 1 player a 35M/AAV unless its Mike Trout or something.
Some people seem to forget that Grienke was a mid-3 ERA guy as early as 3 years ago, and has a FIP of almost a run higher than his ERA in 2015. On top of that, he has an unrealistic H/9 this year that is extremely unlikely to be repeated.
Hes probably going to end up with ~10 WAR this year, and it seems unlikely to me that he’ll have a 3rd career 10 WAR season in 2016 or beyond.
I’d top him out at 5/150M because thats what Scherzer got in AAV.(I still think thats an awful deal for Scherzer)
David Price from 2010-2015: 1280 IP, 3.07 FIP
Zack Greinke from 2010-2015: 1184 IP, 3.06 FIP
Okay? And?
Greinke will be 32 on opening day, Price will be 30.
I think they’ll both get 30M AAV, but the difference is I’d top Grienke at 5 years and Price at 7.
And you are talking about Zack Greinke as if he’s not in the same league as David Price, using a dumb stat like ERA, when FIP shows that they are pretty much the same guy.
How is FIP, which has only been around for a few years, any smarter than e.r.a. ? Isn’t the purpose of FIP to estimate what e.r.a should be? Why use an estimator when you can use the real thing?
Since when do players get paid based on their WAR? The CY Grienke is a virtual lock to win this season will give him at least as much leverage as any number, and given that he will be the best pitcher available in free agency. Still the numbers being bandied about are probably on the extreme side.
I think Gallardo, Leake, Maeda will hurt Price chances at getting a huge deal, I just dont see two teams getting into a bidding war on Price with how much pitching is going to be available. The Dbacks are really unpredictable though with a billion dollar TV deal in hand, I could see an agent using them as a “mystery” team, to get the Red Sox or Yankees to pay over market value.
Opt odd clauses should work both ways.
As other posters pointed out above, teams are already free to negotiate such two-way opt outs if they so desire. It all depends on what the parties to the contract want.
Also, you should keep in mind that teams are already receiving compensation for the opt-out clause. The opt-out, that is, has value for the player, so the team can offer fewer years or less money than it would offer in the absence of the opt-out clause.
But that isn’t what happens. With the opt out, the player has ALL the leverage. Hmmm, I sucked the first three years, I am sticking around for the last 5 OR I was great the first three years, see ya nice team who thought they were getting my stats for 8 years.
In both situations, the team has absolutely zero say, thus, all leverage is the players.
But the team knows that it is opening itself up to that situation when it signs the contract.
The team is free to accept or reject a player’s demand for an opt-out clause. If the team accepts the demand, then it knows from the outset that it is exposing itself to a situation where, as you described, a player would have all the leverage. Giving the player that leverage, however, is worth it to the team because the team, in return, can offer less guaranteed money. In other words, the player doesn’t get all his leverage for free: he has to give something up in the rest of the contract.
The key is – if a team doesn’t want a player to have all the leverage, don’t sign him to the contract in the first place.
Every team is free to say no at the negotiation table.
I think an interesting poll to make would be how many $200M contracts are there going to be this offseason?
Here’s my list:
1. Jason Heyward: 10 years would mean age 26-35 which includes a full, traditional “prime” bunch of seasons. He’s shown quite a bit already however with so many very young players outperforming him people seem to think he’s in line to be a bust rather than worth it. 10/200M could very well be a bargain for him. He’s a rare case, he’s a guy who in 5 years is absolutely going to be worth $20M, which in 5 years wont even be that much.
2. David Price: A strong finish and postseason will more than likely drive up his age 30-39 seasons way past 200M.
3. Yoenis Cespedes: As strange as it sounds, he’s the same age as Robinson Cano was when he got his 10 year deal, and now has the same agent as he did when he got that deal. A team with too much money and not enough offense might throw 10/200 at him.
4. Chris Davis: Same as above, he’s a game changer with power and plenty of teams have a lot of money to spend this year. He’s 30 next year.
5. Justin Upton: He’s a near lock to get 10/200+ for his age 28-37 seasons. You won’t find a more consistently solid player out there. He’ll be good for it.
6. Johnny Cueto: He’s been terrible since changing leagues but also might be injured. His ceiling is high enough for any team to offer him 100M+ anyway, but are we at the point where they rise to 150 or even 200?
7. Zack Grienke: Age be damned, he really just goes from strength to strength and his easy delivery and body type (he’s not CC or Prince) are as solid as a rock. He could and deserves the first 7/200 deal in the game.
8. Jordan Zimmermann: You can’t really bring it back to numbers, but if a team gave him 9/200 would you really be that surprised?
I think you are writing that the 8 names listed are each going to receive a $200 million or more contract, and if you are, you really do not understand much about baseball contracts. Just reading your lead in, j.heyward, made me chuckle. His 5 most recent seasons, he AVERAGED just 55 rbi (take out his 82 rbi season from four years ago and heyward is under 50 rbi for the 4 seasons)! No matter how you cut it, teams pay non-pitchers to hit. 11 home runs and 50 rbi aint getting you a 10 year, $200 million contract. Then you write about guys like cespedes and chris davis getting $200 million. Jeez, you crack me up…
That cracked you up then you use RBI’s as a reason Heyward isn’t going to get a big big contract? Pot, meet kettle
Gotta love reading “you dont know much about baseball contracts” and then being told about how RBI dictates them….SMH
Ryan Howard has 171 RBI through the last season and three quarters – better sign him to an extension, right?
Honestly, the only ones I see clearing $200MM on that list are Heyward and Price. You bring up good points about Cespedes, but I think he falls a little short, around $175MM.
No way Davis comes close, and I’m not sure Upton does, either. ‘Consistently solid’ doesn’t get $200MM, and Upton is pretty consistently a 3-3.5 WAR player. Could be wrong. Cueto is interesting, but I could see teams being wary of injuries and placing too much emphasis (unfairly, I should add) on his Royals starts. Greinke is phenomenal, but he’d need 7 years and $30MM per to hit $200MM. It could happen, though, since it’s the Dodgers as his main suitor. Zimmerman I think will fall short as well. The AAV will be there (like $20-25MM), but for some reason I don’t see him getting more than seven years.
I guess I should say that it still wouldn’t surprise me to see them all getting it, though, given the way salaries are climbing. I think the biggest surprise would be Chris Davis.
So you argue “so-and-so isnt going to come close” then say “I wouldnt be surprised to see them all get it”? Okay…please learn the market and understand that 200M isnt going to be that much money in 3-5 years.
A 3-3.5 WAR player will absolutely be worth $20M+ a year too, “consistently solid” also = EXTREMELY valuable asset.
So do you just get angry any time anyone disagrees with you? ‘Please learn the market’, from a guy telling me that Chris Davis might get $200MM. ‘Understand that 200M isn’t going to be that much money in 3-5 years’. We’re talking about what’s going to happen *this* offseason and not 2018-2020’s. $200MM is a lot of money right now, which is when the contracts will be signed.
How many years do you think Upton will put up 3.5+ WAR? This isn’t a guy who puts up 5 WAR a season regularly in his prime years or who is capable of an elite season. The ‘consistently solid’ years he’s putting up now are as good as he’ll get. $200MM for a guy who in 4-5 years will be giving you ~2 WAR isn’t the ‘lock’ you think it is. Upton is currently 18th in the league in WAR for OF, right next to Dexter Fowler. 19th last year, 27th the year before, 44th in 2012. He’s worth $20MM now, but not on a deal long enough to get him $200MM.
What in my post relates anger? You made a weird wishy-washy comment and I repeated it back to you, that you were indeed agreeing with me in the end, but up front you were “absolutely not”-ing all these guys who are more than likely going to make bank whether you like it or want it to correlate to their numbers or not.
And that IS kind of my point = $200M is actually not as much as everyone is making it out to be. I wouldnt be surprised to see up to 9 and even 10-12 guys it – I left out Alex Gordon.
I didn’t ‘absolutely not’ any of those guys (aside from Davis), which you just said so yourself. I gave my opinions on each of them, but rather than be authoritarian about it, left open the possibility that I’m wrong because teams do overpay sometimes during the frenzy of free agent signings. There’s nothing ‘wishy-washy’ about what I wrote, and there’s no need for you to condescend and tell me to ‘learn the market’.
I’ll iterate that I only think Heyward and Price will get there. Could some team lose their mind and sign Cespedes to a $200MM deal? Sure. But I don’t think it’ll happen for anyone other than those two. I’ll publicly eat crow on this forum if I’m wrong.
Grienke, Zimmermann, Upton, Cueto, Cespedes and Davis have no shot at 200M.
1. Greinke isn’t going to get 7 years.
2. Upton just isn’t 200M good.
3. Cueto’s recent 5 start stretch will hurt him.
4. Davis hit .199 last year, no one is going to give him that much.
5. Cespedes is so overrated, its kind of funny. 1 2 month stretch isn’t going to change his market by THAT much. He was already going to get 100M+ either way, but not 200M.
6. You realize teams don’t sign pitchers to big money through their age 39 seasons? No one is giving Zimmermann (or any pitcher, for that matter) 9 years.
“You realize teams don’t sign guys to big money through their age 39 seasons?” I actually do, and apparently you don’t – Votto, Cano, Pujols & A-Rod (amongst countless others) are my proof.
Another thing you don’t understand: big money contracts have less to do with previous performance, and more to do with name recognition and how much profit a team has to improve a position.
Brixton, please take 5 and learn the MLB free agent market, it has almost nothing to do with any of the points you list, and more to do with teams having profit to spend.
You changed Brixton’s point #6. He said “pitchers”; you changed it to “guys”.
It said “guys” when I quoted him – he changed it. I kind of agree with it but would pay Greinke now and if he’s still good at 39 then its an even bigger win.
The funniest thing about all these responses are that the poster actually thinks their personal opinion of the player matters. Guys, I’m going to be proven right on most of the above picks, and you guys are going to keep on writing hate-posts when they get those big money deals.
Stanton got $300M, remember? $200M isn’t going to be that big a deal very soon, either get on board with the changing market, or get left in the dust.
I got a feeling Chris Davis is going to be Ryan Howard 2.0. I think giving him 9 figures will be a huge mistake.
As great of a year that Davis is having, his 2014 season should not be ignored.
The market could be a big problem for Davis’ hopes at a nine figure deal. All the big money teams are set at first base and no one’s going to give him that much money to play left field.
If Céspedes is only going up to 7/$160, I’d personally be shocked but the Mets should be able to afford it.
I’m so sick of the Harvey stuff. Be there in October and stuff the rest. Cespedes needs to be signed by the mets. Anything else would cause a earthquake in New York.
I wonder if the Cardinals will sign John Lackey or Jaime Garcia back, or even both.