With the offseason underway and multiple blockbuster trades already in the books, let’s dive into another edition of the MLBTR Mailbag…
I was wondering what the return for Freddie Freeman would look like. Since I am a Pirates fan, and am asking within that context, then what would the Pirates need to offer to get a deal done? — Kellen H.
No fewer than a dozen questions asking about the Pirates and Freeman this week. Sorry to disappoint Pirates fans, but I don’t see a realistic way that it gets done. Freeman is owed $118.5MM over the next six seasons, which is just about double the largest contract in Pirates franchise history. Add that to the likely prospect price — one would imagine names like Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, Reese McGuire, Jameson Taillon, etc. coming up in talks — and it’s just not realistic, barring a huge shift in the Pittsburgh payroll.
With the Angels trading their top two minor league prospects to Atlanta for Simmons, are they in a position to acquire any offense via trade (i.e. Trevor Plouffe, Brett Gardner, Todd Frazier)? Or are the Angels relegated to Free Agent spending? Did they spend Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis wisely or could they have gotten more for the pair (i.e. Jay Bruce, Yasiel Puig)? — Marcus R.
I liked the Simmons deal for the Angels quite a bit and wholeheartedly disagree with the suggestion that Jay Bruce would’ve been “more” to get for Newcomb/Ellis.
The Angels probably don’t have a ton of pieces to move for Frazier — the Reds are looking for controllable, MLB-ready players and the Angels are thin in such types of impact talent, especially on the position-player side of things. Plouffe could potentially be had for a pair of power bullpen arms, though, and Gardner could be attainable as well, though the Angels probably don’t want to surrender any more starting pitching, and I’d imagine that’s the ask for him.
How do you think the Mets are going to replace the power in their lineup from the departure of Cespedes and Murphy. Is Ian Desmond an option for them? — Jonathan V.
They don’t really need to replace Murphy’s power. His postseason performance was never sustainable, and he’s never had that much pop. Murphy is consistently about 5-10 percent above the league average in terms of park-adjusted offense, which is valuable but not irreplaceable. The Mets were already contending without Cespedes, so I don’t think they suddenly need to scramble to find a 35-homer bat or anything, either.
The Mets will have full seasons of Syndergaard, Matz and Conforto next season, and that alone should make up for much of the value lost when Cespedes signs elsewhere. The team had a down performance from Dillon Gee for the early portion of the season and lackluster numbers from guys like John Mayberry, Darrell Ceciliani and Kirk Nieuwenhuis before Cespedes and Conforto came onto the scene. Full years of their young players will replace a large portion of the value brought to the table by Cespedes.
All that said, I can see them making a play for Desmond, but he’s not going to bring Cespedes-style power to the picture for them or anything.
With the probable 2016 returns of Jose Fernandez and Henderson Alvarez, I believe the Marlins will be in a good spot to at least contend for a NL Wild Card Spot, given both Fernandez and Alvarez are healthy. They also would need one other quality starter in the rotation. Is it probable that the Marlins will seriously pursue some of the quality starters on the market such as Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen, Jordan Zimmerman or Yovani Gallardo? — Jamil V.
That’s a more bullish view than I have on the current iteration of the Marlins, but nonetheless I do think they’ll be in the market for a mid-rotation starter. I picked them to sign J.A. Happ in our free agent prediction contest. Happ had a huge breakout with the Pirates, and the Marlins hired special assistant Jim Benedict — who played an integral role in advance scouting and working with the pitchers in Pittsburgh — away from the Bucs this winter. The Marlins can reportedly spend around $12MM annually on a pitcher this winter, and I think Happ will come in a bit south of that AAV anyhow.
If not him, then yeah, I can see Gallardo being in play. Chen and certainly Zimmermann will command annual values out the Marlins’ comfort zone, and Kazmir could fit that description as well. Miami could reasonably make plays for either Ian Kennedy or Mike Pelfrey from a financial standpoint, but they may not be keen on dealing with Scott Boras (who represents those two and Chen as well) after the recent anger expressed toward Boras by president David Samson.
What do you think its going to take for the Rangers to get a solid catcher this year? — Mike C.
I think they already have one in Robinson Chirinos. He doesn’t hit for much average, but a .232/.325/.438 batting line out of a catcher is pretty strong. Chirinos’ production was slightly above that of a league-average hitter and worlds better than a league-average catcher. The league-average batting line for a catcher in 2015 was .238/.302/.376, so Chirinos got on base at an above-average clip and showed considerably more power than most backstops. He’s also caught 31 percent of base-stealers in his career and improved his pitch-framing skills in 2015. He could improve defensively, but you could do a lot worse than Chirinos as the primary catcher.
In light of the Craig Kimbrel trade, what kind of return can Cincinnati expect on Aroldis Chapman? With just one year of control, compared to three for Kimbrel, will the Reds receive significantly less than the Red Sox gave the Padres? — Tim S.
Yeah, the return on Chapman is going to be less than what the Padres received for Kimbrel. Even if the contracts were closer to even, it’d be really hard for me to imagine a team paying more than Boston did for Kimbrel — that was quite a bit to give up, even for a reliever that dominant. The Reds want MLB-ready players, and looking at their roster, outfielders seem like a potential area of focus (especially if Jay Bruce is traded this winter). For me, you’re looking at one MLB-ready position player and maybe another lower-level piece or two, with the secondary portion of the return dependent upon the quality of the headliner.
I disagree with the common opinion that the Sox overpayed for Kimbrel. Margot is great, I’m not all too familiar with Guerra, but I feel like we dealt from a position of strength (positional farm players) to help strengthen a position of weakness in our bullpen.
If you’re not familiar with the players how can you judge whether it was an over pay? Which by the way has nothing to do with how many prospects you have or whether you filled a position of need. I will agree with the prevailing sympathy that it was an overpay, however I think it was necessary to overpay in order to get the peace of mind of getting that elite player so soon in the off season.
18 years of Margot Allen and guerra no matter really how they turn out unless they are complete busts>>> 3 of a closer. Sorry
Sox overpayed.
I don’t think the sox over paid either. They basically gave up Margot and guerra for the best closer in the game for 3 years. The other 2 players in the deal aren’t pieces I think the sox will miss. Ones an infielder which the sox are loaded with and the other is a pitcher with only 24 innings pitched. The only reason I would think they over paid is if they could have gotten both Margot and guerra to headline their own trades for separate players
Guerra is ranked around the 70s in all prospects within the minors. When traded, he jumped within the top 3 prospects in the Padres system. Renfroe and Guerra are ranked very close to each other. It is not outlandish to speculate Guerra would be the Padres’ best prospect if Margot was not also included in the trade.
You should definitely look into the prospects before dismissing or making claims, though.
He’s played 1 season in A ball. He struck out in 1/4th of his at bats. Whose to say that number doesn’t jump the higher he climbs? It’s basically what ifs and speculations.
True, he does K a lot. However, we don’t know the future. As you said, it is all speculation. That’s why we’re on a site called MLB Trade Rumors.
But his current value is somewhere around the 75th best prospect in the minors. So along with the 25th best prospect, Sox also gave up the 75th best prospect. That’s a lot of value given up for a closer, albeit, the best or near the best closer in the game.
I guess my question then is what should they have given up? Because I’d like to believe that to get talent you have to give up talent. I understand they are respectively the 25th and 75th prospects and rated highly, but they are also only still in single A. There’s a lot of uncertainty about their development from now until they make their mlb appearance. Would you rather have seen them give up more pitching? From a different position ? Maybe just that devers at 3b ?
he was also voted the best defender in their system. so he doesnt have to be a great hitter to be a valuable player. him busting is basically utility guy which still has value, margot busting is a 4th of. these 2 have pretty high floors regardless of how far away they are. the other 2 can bust. the first 2 are still major leaguers without hitting ceiling or even median.
it’s going to take 3-4 years before we know if the BoSox overpaid. If they make the WS, then….it was a good trade for Boston.
Sox paid too much for Kimbrel.
How do you figure?
Hope so. Kimbrel is a great closer to have during this Red Sox window of a ton of younger talent even better than what they traded plus some expensive veterans
Freeman to Pittsburgh. Bell, Alvarez, Taillon to Atlanta
Freeman adds a top first base to Pittsburgh. Bell could be Freeman’s long term replacement in Atlanta and Taillon is a prized pitching prospect. Alvarez holds down first waiting for Bell
That doesn’t do anything to explain how the Pirates would be able to afford Freeman’s contract.
alvarez will make like 8 mil next year so that part would even it out. but that package is light for atlanta anyway. tailon is coming off tommy john and its not even his first arm injury. bell hasn’t shown any power yet, although most believe it will come he still hasn’t. and alvarez is not worth anything. literally maybe a 30th prospect in someones system.
what about the other 110 million over 5 years?
Money aside, that would be awful for Pittsburgh. Freeman is good, but not elite. That’s an awful lot to give up. Bell is not that far away, and Taillon could be a stud someday.
That package is not for elite talent. Plus, take a look at Freeman’s stats he’s getting there. Barring a nagging wrist injury last year he would have had 30 HR and a robust AVG, even with no protection. Glad ATL is not trading him.
That would be a massive overpay on the pirates part. Tallion still has top of the rotation potential, albeit coming off TJ, and bell seems to have an everyday starter floor with a maybe freeman level ceiling. Like the article was saying Pittsburgh can’t really take on that contract anyways, but hypothetically I could see maybe taillon, alvarez, and Connor Joe getting it done. That would be a pretty similar package to what Simmons fetched, top of the line starter, MLB 1 year fill in, and solid potential lower prospect. It’s a little bit less, but that’s factoring in freeman’s much larger contract and less desirable position for a slightly lower return.
you mean underpay? tallion has been hurt each of the past 2 years. alvarez adds no value, he’s a legit non tender candidate.
From what I read Taillon could have come back from his injury this year however the Pirates chose to hold him out rather than have him come back for 3 weeks at the end of the year. I think Bell, Taillon, and another lower tier prospect, possibly in the 10-15th in the system range, would be a fair deal for Freeman. Though Jedi your point is also valid that Taillon’s value could be seen as down after having TJ.
The Pirates could afford him. Most likely they will trade Melancon and Alvarez which will save them 20MM this year. They also will hopefully trade Walker too. That would be another 8MM in savings. The only really significant contracts they have are McCutchen, Liriano, Marte, and to a lesser extent Harrison. They have the money if they were so inclined to make this deal.
This won’t be a popular opinion but they could also not use Bell in the package and trade for Freeman pay him his ~12MM this year then trade him in the ensuing offseason if Bell is ready to take over.
Tailion’s ceiling is still way high yeah his value is down on what it would be if he didn’t get injured but still very valuable.
But yeah, Alverez, no trade value what-so-ever. No one is going to take him. They’ll wait to see if the pirates non-tender him.. and if they do MIGHT pick him up. If the pirates do tender him.. then he is just to expensive and the only reason a team takes him is to offset any salary the pirates take on.
Now that I think about it, Alvarez being dealt to Atlanta could make some sense. Freddie’s contract is 16 million per and Alvarez is only on a 1 yr. 6 mill. deal right now. You trade Freddie for prospects and Alvarez. Alvarez plays 1 full year then is a FA or you deal him at the deadline to a team looking for a bat. All the while you’ve unloaded a ton of future payroll and can begin looking at signing some bigger names with the new money flowing in.
But as the commenter below me stated, I don’t know how the Pirates could afford Freddie’s contract.
Alvarez is projected for 10+MM in arbitration.
$8.1M according to MLBTR (this site)
I really doubt anyone will take Alverez in trade, especially in the NL. Which is why he is still with the Pirates. Probably have better luck with Morse in the package.
I think there is a match to be made between these 2 teams if interested. I am hoping for it because I follow both teams and think it could benefit both.
The deal would probably have to start with Alvarez and Bell to give atlanta an option for this year and the future and ditching Alvarez helps free up money for pittsburgh. From Atlanta ‘ s pattern they would ask about young pitchers which pittsburgh has but I think pittsburgh could do well offering a young outfielder like meadows. It may also make sense for pittsburgh to overpay slightly in prospects if atlanta is willing to kick in a little money over the life of freeman’s contract.
Still holding by the possibility that Greinke signs with Miami. He’s a Florida native and I just see them tossing so much money at Zack that he has to consider.
what money
Do we not remember the last time everyone ignored the Marlins and they signed everyone?
the beurhle, jose reyes money. they have it, just don’t spend it.
That would be quite the surprise but Grienke is going to sign for the most money period. No matter what is said now the money has guided him before and getting the most money is important to a guy so involved in the process like Grienke.
Mattingly in Miami is going to be fun
As a Mets fan I watched as they traded valuable chips to other teams to obtain rentals. Even though they came up short in the Series it was great too see them play all the way to the end. Worth it!? Are you kidding me. To win is the name of the game. Those four prospects for Kimbrell?? Are you kidding me? Ask the Sox fans next year when he comes into a game that matters in September or October. When Red Sox fans walk up and buy tickets at least they know that their team is trying to win. Prospects are a crap shoot. The Mets traded Tom Seaver for a prospect loaded package of Steve Henderson, Dan Norman, Doug Flynn and Pat Zachary. Need I say more. Go Sox!!! At least they’re going for it.
My guesses if each get traded:
Chapman to Astros for Tony Kemp, J.D. Davis and Andrew Alpin.
Freeman to Orioles for Hunter Harvey, Chance Sisco, Trey Mancini, Mychal Givens and Jimmy Paredes.
Todd Frazier to Brewers for Tyrone Taylor, Jorge Lopez, Josh Hader and Yadiel Rivera.
Trevor Plouffe to Angels for Matt Shoemaker
Brett Gardner to Indians for Cody Anderson and Cody Allen.
Not sure the Brewers go in on Frazier, his controllable years don’t exactly line up with an opportunity. I like the ideas though
Brewers have no 3Bs in their system and right now
plouffe fetches more than matt shoemaker. hes worth someting more like a heaney. meaning no deal there. and brewers aren’t trading for frazier they are tanking next year. the others meh.
Jedihoyer Heaney for Plouffe? Man I don’t know what you are smoking but that aint going to happen. I agree that Shoemaker wont be enough. Maybe Santiago and Salas. But not Heaney.
Why would the Brewers be interested in Frazier? They are rebuilding that would be counterproductive to trade prospects for 30 year old guy who had a terrible second half.
they have no good 3Bs in their system and have no 3B right now
If the Twins trade Plouffe for a couple power arms, at least one of those arms would need to have a solid track record on the major league level. Even then that would be fairly light, but a deal for two power armed minor leaguers would be too reminiscent of Hardy for Hoey and Jacobson.
Agree with Steve on the freeman point, as a pirates fan as much as I was enamored with the idea of trying to get freeman after Simmons was traded the cost of his contract and in prospects (probably at least the same as what the angels gave up) is too much for a small market team. Would like to see them go after a trade with Tampa to take on loney and bring in either boxberger or mcgee. Maybe also swap out Matt Moore and Jeff locke, as Moore has more upside but a higher cost and both are change of scenery guys. This would give the bucs a guy who guy can play first everyday, a high end relieve option to replace one of soria, bastardo, and probably melancon and a guy who should at worst be no worse than locke out of the 4 or 5 rotation spot. Not sure what they would have to give up though, maybe mercer, Connor joe, and a couple of decent prospects?
loney would really suck, might as well keep alvarez there. might as well just snag a blocked 1b prospect. travis shaw from the red sox(not really prospect but had cheap), vogelbach cubs( bats ready, but wont be too great), adam laroche from the white sox maybe, they prolly eat half. rangel ravello a’s. cheaper under the radar moves that keep the system intact. vbach prolly has most value there and even then ur talking a 10-15 guy from their system.
none of those options really look appealing
I don’t see the braves trading freeman this offseason. a lot of teams already have a 1b. Baltimore is about the only team that matches up, if even Baltimore has the prospects.
If he’s not traded it’s more about the fact that ATL wouldn’t be given the proper package. NYY need an upgrade, especially with Tex coming off the books. Many other teams could use Freeman going into his prime, locked into a reasonable deal for a midorder bat and one of the best hitters w/RISP in the game.
Brett Gardner for CJ Wilson and Cam? I think that would work out for both teams. As for Plouffe the Angels already have too many light hitting below average defensive players. They want to build the team around defense. Take the Simmons deal as a perfect example. The only reason any team is really interested in Plouffe is the lack of good all around third baseman. It will be interesting to see what the Angels do, the rest of the off season.
Steve I think that you’re pretty dismissive of what Cespedes brought to the Mets, and the hole that he leaves behind. Sure, he’s streaky and injury prone and I’m not even suggesting the Mets give him the long contract he’s seeking, but have to disagree that “Full years of their young players will replace a large portion of the value brought to the table by Cespedes”. You can only be referring to Conforto here, and asking/expecting him to replace a large portion of Cespedes is unrealistic and too much pressure- the kind that might ruin a young player. He already shows signs of being an all-or-nothing type of hitter ala Joc Pederson.
No doubt the Red Sox are loaded with prospects and they did not give up anyone who wasnt blocked by someone else on their roster.
However, they did overpay.
Lets say you had $50 in your pocket and you bought a bagel for $10. Just because you have $40 left in your pocket, does not mean that the bagel was a good deal.
Your analogy makes things so clear, like the AT&T girl who breaks off the pretzel for 50% more data!
The analogy is nice, but not perfect. It’s not like they had $50 spent $10 because there is another factor involved, usability. Let’s say they had 50 apples and traded away 10. They have 40 apples left.. Sure you could have kept the extra 10 apples and still had 50, but those 10 are likely to spoil because you cannot eat all 50 apples at once. Some are going to go bad due to the wait.
Glad to see that someone appreciates Chirinos for the solid catcher that he is.
I am the Kellen who asked the question above. It seems to be that Freeman’s value is higher with the Braves than with other teams. In addition, the Pirates seem to value their prospects more than other teams would (minus Glasnow). So even if the money portion could be worked out, I think I have a hard time seeing an agreement on prospects after all.
I was largely basing trade value on the LaRoche trade in 2006. LaRoche had 3 great seasons, pretty comparable to Freeman’s seasons in ATL. That trade didn’t net Atlanta anything close to a Taillon or Bell. It netted a couple years of Mike Gonzalez and prospect Brent Lillibridge. I didn’t pay much attention back then, but I don’t recall Lillibridge being a top prospect like Taillon or Bell is.
Hard to believe this: “The Mets were already contending without Cespedes, so I don’t think they suddenly need to scramble to find a 35-homer bat or anything, either.” The guy hit 17 hr and 44 rbi in 57 games with Mets – you can do the full season math. Mets averaged 3.5 runs per game before Cespedes, last in the league. They averaged 5.75 over two months with Cespedes, best in the league. There will be a big hole.