Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Red Sox’ big move to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres for prospects Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen. Here are a few more that have trickled in throughout the day.
- As noted in our previous post, reviews of the Red Sox’ end of the deal by outside analysts have not all been enthusiastic. But CSNNE.com’s Sean McAdam collected a number of takes from scouts and evaluators within the game who view the Sox’ decision to trade four prospects (including two highly rated ones in Margot and Guerra) somewhat more favorably. “I like Margot and Guerra. [They’re] middle-of-the-diamond kids with upside, (but) I doubt either becomes Betts or Bogaerts,” says one NL scout. “Prospects are nice, but in that market, give me Brady as QB over [Marcus] Mariota.” An NL evaluator points out that the Sox avoided giving up their very best prospects, like Yoan Moncada and Rafael Devers. Not everyone loved the deal from Boston’s perspective, however. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski “is all about the short term and this trade made sense from that perspective,” says an MLB exec. “But if you do too many of the deals, you wake up in a few years like the Phillies … or the Tigers.”
- One potential reason the Red Sox felt outfielder Margot was expendable was the presence of 2015 top draft choice Andrew Benintendi, who could move through the minors quickly, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. In an accompanying article, MacPherson compares Benintendi to Mets rookie Michael Conforto, who rocketed through the minors, and notes that Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie all moved quickly through the Sox’ system after being drafted out of college, as Benintendi was. Benintendi hit .313/.416/.556 across two levels in his first taste of the minors this summer.
- The Reds don’t feel the Padres’ trade of Kimbrel will have much effect on the market for Aroldis Chapman, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes. Chapman only has one year of control remaining, while Kimbrel has three, so although both are top-flight closers, they represent somewhat different types of commodities. “Kimbrel was a bit of a different animal than Chapman, in terms of club control,” says new Reds GM Dick Williams. “We didn’t feel like we missed out on a deal with them. There will be other teams that are interested in Chapman.”
Honestly, I don’t get why the Phillies and Tigers are looked down on so much. They both made the world series twice over the past 10 years. I don’t think trading prospects was their problem. The Phillies didn’t sell early enough, and the Tigers (although finishing in last place in 2015) have a very solid young core and could still very well compete in 2016. The Tigers did put themselves in somewhat of a hole, but that’s because they’ve lost quite a few 1st round draft picks because they relied too heavily on free agents.
They both dished out excessive contracts to their vets and neglected the farm and are now expensive teams with losing records.
Tigers had a losing record ONE YEAR. Division champions the last 4 years before that. The only reason that Detroit is “looked down upon” is ignorance.
I gotta agree. The tigers had one off year and still made out ok with trades. They got some nice pieces for Price. They are loyal but they have an owner with the resources to absorb some bad choices and they unlike the Phillies really haven’t ended up with to many dead contracts yet. Verlander I believe is a solid bounce back candidate and I think Miggy is a guy who could produce late into his career. Kinsler is still very productive and they have some interesting young players like Norras. If they sign a couple guys they could be right back in it or they could probably rebuild because most of their players would be moveable besides probably Verlander. Even the Phillies probably arne’t in too bad shape. They have a rising farm system and alot of money. They could probably sign some decent free agents and they try to flip them at the deadline this season or next.
Tigers failed to focus on bullpen pieces and closer and it cost them in Postseason.
Soria was the #1 available relief pitcher available in trade in the 2014 trade deadline, AHEAD of Miller (value at the time). The Tigers got him.
Nathan was the #1 available relief pitcher available in free agency after the 2013 season. The Tigers got him.
The Red Sox 4th choice at closer won the ALCS MVP and become a World Series Champion. Any of the 30 teams could have afforded to get Uehara before the 2013 season. He was a complete afterthought.
Sometimes its is just bad luck when other teams have good luck.
There were questions about Nathan, with his declining velocity, and increasing walk rate, before the Tigers signed him. Uehara, had questions because he had never closed and throws “different”. Sometimes, its scouting.
Yeah but now you got the royals and twins who are going to compete. They won 4 straight in a row in a very weak division. You could even make an argument Chicago and Cleveland have the potential to compete. The Tigers had their best chances the last 4 Seasons. Now they’re declining due to a lack of any real impactful prospects ( barring the trades they just made ) and a bunch of veterans who are only going to get worse
Phillies are cheap compared to what we’d be paying if we thought our team could compete now.
The tigers have now young core whatsoever
What is wrong with the Tigers?
They have three of the top 15 WAR position players in the AL (Miggy, Kinsler, JD), two top controllable pitching prospects, and almost $50MM/year to spend on free agents.
Am I missing something?
Padres took advantage of the Red Sox desperation and surplus devaluing margot and guerra who were blocked.
In the long run Margot and Guerra would have been better suited chasing after a starting pitcher to supplement signing Cueto or Price.
Could have offered the Mets margot guerra and 2 better pospects for Matz, or tried Margot maybe guerra and others for wheeler or montero. Surplus for surplus. Of course other parts have to be hammered out.
Mets have harvey wheeler matz degrom montero syndergaard. Harvey degrom syndergaard arent on the table but matz maybe and wheeler / tjs and montero possobly.
So where do the Red Sox get an elite BP arm? Certainly not in this years FA class. In the age of SP’ers going 6-7 IP, even elite SP’ers, a strong bullpen is more essential than ever, as the Royals showed despite a not so great rotation. One of the benefits of a very strong farm system is you can afford to splurge once in awhile. They have plenty of prospects to go along with a number of former prospects who are in their pre-arb years. Don’t weep for the Red Sox. Neither of those 2 were enough on their own to get a top SP’er
You dont need elite bullpen arms. Nationals tried that, didn’t work so well. Clippard would be my first thought as he doesnt have a QO attached. But drew storen as a buy low candidate would be a good place to look. Had a bad season unhappy in washington. If you’re going to splurge ken giles made more sense. Less financial commitment.
Nationals tried and failed at that. Their elite arms didn’t pitch well down the stretch. It’s not a failure of the concept, as the Royals proved it can work, it’s a failure of those individual pitchers.
Royals are one of the few instances where it worked. Dodgers nationals yankees astros all tried building elite bullpens via free agents trades drafts. Failed when it matters most.
You dont need an elite pen or elite arms in bullpen. You need a solid one that is consitent across the board.
I would NEVER call the Dodgers’ bullpen elite! Not even close hahaha
They tried to construct an elite pen. Howell league theyve tried signing people but it hasn’t panned out. Trying to build a pen with good arms to be dominate and it faiing doesnt negate them trying to in the 1st place.
I mean the yankees pen seemed to work fine this year and in years prior, their main problem has been a lack of starting pitching and an offense that was homerun or bust in previous years and all but nonexistant the last month of the past season and postseason.
So, you think Dombrowski didn’t ask what it would have taken to get Matz,or one of the other Mets starters? I’m pretty sure Margot, Guerra, etc weren’t enough. Otherwise they would be announcing that deal instead of the Kimbrel deal. Shot in the dark, the Mets wanted Bogaerts and Dombrowski said no. It doesn’t hurt to ask, but Guerra/Margot wasn’t getting that deal done. Prospect packages from the A-AA level only work when the team in question is rebuilding. Not to a team that is looking to compete next season. And since they made the World Series this season, I can’t see them looking to stockpile prospects that are 1-3 years away.
Which is why I said Wheeler or montero. Dombrowski may not have wanted to risk on a tjs pitcher but doubt the mets said bogaerts when they’d do wheeler for jay bruces salary.
Wheeler isn’t an Ace. He isn’t going to lead your staff and he’s not a real upgrade on a guy like Buchholz or even Rodriguez. And I’m, having trouble figuring why they’d want Montero. Is he even healthy? I mean if that’s a direction they wanted to go in they should have the pieces to get the deal done. I wouldn’t give up much for a guy who was shut down last season and the Mets probably aren’t interested in selling low. Is he going to be your Ace? There’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to put together a deal for a guy like Wheeler if they wanted him either. But again the Mets are going to want ML ready players. Travis Shaw and/or Brock Holt could get that conversation started. But it wouldn’t fix the lack of an ace problem.
Prior to injury, Wheeler had some of the best stuff on the staff. His upside is as a #1, even after TJS. The Mets are stacked w. Harvey/deGrom/Syn/Matz, but that shouldn’t detract from Wheeler’s chance to be another frontline starter. There is a reason CIN tried to steal him at the deadline this past yr.
Wheeler (2nd half of 2014, before injury):
W/L: 6-3
ERA:3.04
Bucholz (2015):
W/L: 7-7
ERA: 3.26
Looks like a wash.
Rodriguez (2015, 2nd half)
W/L: 5-4
ERA: 4.04
He is definitely a step down.
As for Montero, I completely agree that he needs to build back his value. His rehab stints in the second half of 2015 were bizarre.
Wheeler may have great stuff, but he’s not an ace. Maybe some day but not now. He’s never thrown 200 innings in a season and he has a career ERA of 3.50. Nice pitcher. Solid number two, but Buchholz has great stuff too. Doesn’t mean I want him as the ace. You need more than stuff to be an ace. The potential is still there, but the TJS is a concern. Until he proves healthy there are still question marks. Guys don’t come back from that sometimes. It happens.
Adding to mookie’s point, during the trade deadline, the mets tried to trade wheeler for a year and a half of Gomez… So that is likely his value. I’d personally stay away until I see him come back from TJS as he said.
Cincy may have tried to steal him, but they didn’t offer much at all. Wheeler is a tease. Great arm, but not much of a pitcher.
Never said ace. I said supplement cueto or price, you know ace pitchers. With degrom syndergaard harvey matz one of wheeler montero become expendable for talent. Talent whether ml ready or years away is talent. Successful franchises dont just trade for mlb ready pieces.
Travis shaw or holt dont even come close to wheeler.
Is their any fan in baseball who would not give up 4 prospects for a serious chance at world series in the next 3 years? Of course Kimbrel is not the sole piece but the Red Sox did pretty good when you look at what they had for starters the money is obviously around to sign a major starter or two. Prospects hitting in the minors doesn’t sell tickets in Boston.
I think the perception of the Tigers is widely thrown off because major pundits way undervalue the Tigers system for some reason. Burrows will be in the top 100 very soon, Jacoby Jones has some of the best tools in baseball and is actually proving he can hit a baseball in the AFL. Kubitza, Ziomek, Verhagen have all flashed signs of being valuable rotation pieces. It may not be the greatest but it is far from barren as people try to make it seem.
The system still isn’t great, but now at least there is legitimate talent in the system, which was a big problem before the 2015 draft and trade deadline
The Tigers drafted Jake Thompson, and received low marks for the draft from the pundits, with them specifically mentioning his low upside. Traded to the Rangers for Soria, he suddenly became a prospect, and upon his trade to Philly, is being raved about. Devon Travis is pooh-poohed, even after being ranked #1, because its #1 in the Tigers system. Upon his trade to Toronto, he becomes the favorite for rookie of the year, until his injury. Willie Adames was not even listed as a top prospect before he was included in the David Price deal. He immediately became Tampa Bay’s top prospect. Yeah, right, there is no bias towards the big markets when rating prospects.
Xander Bogaerts for Matt Harvey. Who hangs up first?
I don’t get what the big deal is. IMO I see maybe Margot panning out and Guerra maybe being a utility player….. if that. He’s super young still though and just played A ball this year. Plenty of time for him to either get better or bust out, in other words…. I’d say he he has less than a 50-50 shot at panning out just because he really hasn’t wowed me in the minors. .269 BA, .327 OBP, 17 HRs, 15 SBs with 18 CS, 1/3 BB/K ratio in 937 minor league plate appearances – half of which in rookie ball and the other half in A ball. Those aren’t impressive numbers from a guy so far down in the system. So yeah, I’m thinking utility player at best right now. Asuaje just made double A this year and didn’t have all that impressive of a season. He too at best is a utility player in my eyes. Logan Allen was just drafted and only pitched 24 innings this year. Hard to gauge him on such a small sample. He’ll only be 19 in May. He had a solid year…. in those 24 innings, most of which were in rookie ball. Point, he’s likely at least 4 years away….. it’s impossible to judge what kind of pitcher he is. One thing is certain though, he’s a VERY low level prospect at this point. His 1 BB and 26 Ks in those 24 IP is pretty stellar though, but can he keep that up over more than like 1/6 of a minor league season, which 24 IP is. So in my eyes, best case scenario, the Sox gave up a starting OFer, 2 utility infielders, and a low level prospect for probably the best closer in the game. Not bad. Would I personally want to see my team deal for what I consider wasted money at an overrated position? No. But for what it’s worth I think the Sox win this trade. I just don’t see the point paying a closer $12+ mil a year. The Cubs have done a nice job, and it was relatively easy, on building a bullpen from within and trading for afterthought pitching prospects or young ML relievers in Rondon, Neil Ramirez, Grimm, and Strop. Arrieta and Strop for Scott Feldman and Steve Cleavenger is still probably the best trade Hoyer and Theo have ever pulled off. People put all the attention on Arrieta in that deal and rightfully so, but they also got a solid set up man in Strop in that deal as well. For pretty much a journeyman #5 starter and a backup catcher. Strop was actually the main guy in that trade the Cubs wanted to strengthen the bullpen because he had showed success in Baltimore. Arrieta was just an experiment that I’d say panned out pretty nicely, haha. Ask Orioles fans, give it a year or 2 before you judge a trade. I’m sure most of oriole nation probably didn’t think much of this trade, and if they were upset it was because at the time Strop was possibly going to be transitioned into a future closer for them….. not because they coughed up Arrieta.
I think it might be a little more rigorous to rely on professional evaluators take on prospects, having seen them multiple times and gone deep into numbers, rather than the 10 second glance at topline stats that you’ve apparently done. Both Guerra and Margot are Top 50 in all of baseball prospects.
So was Brandon wood
No they’re not. Guerra isn’t even a ranked prospect. At least not pre-2015. maybe his yawn inspiring .279 BA and .329 OBP and 27 errors this year in single A ball…. SINGLE A BALL… makes him a top 100 prospect for some reason. In my logic based world it doesn’t though. Between Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com’s rankings pre-2015 Margot was on average their 77th ranked prospect. Not quite top 50. Honestly though, if you’re not a top 20 prospect it’s really just a number. I never understood why they rank 100 prospects. 50 is more than enough and over half of them will still disappoint. Why do people think “experts” on these topics are any different from a diehard fan? That’s all they are, glorified fans of the game. Scouts….. only advantage they have is they get to watch them play, but let’s be honest, what’s the bust/pan out rate among prospects? Are they even really that good at their jobs? IMO scouts are glorified “experts” and “experts” are glorified fans. And GMs are glorified scouts. Point being, I really don’t think their job would be all that hard. I mean look at the great scouting of Jurickson Profar, Dominic Brown, and even Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward. Those last two have had good careers to date, but they haven’t even come close to the hype scouts put on their backs. Heyward was supposed to be like a .300+ hitting 35+ HR hitter with 30+ SB speed. Bruce was supposed to be a .280 hitter who’d mash 40+ HRs regularly. Profar……. bwahahaha. Ask the Padres if they still employ the scout who convinced them to draft Matt Bush. Or the Cubs and #3 overall pick Josh Vitters. Luke Hochevar was a #1 pick and I’d say he was a bust. He has been good as a reliever the last 3 years, 2 of which he’s played in. But still. He was a #1 SP draft pick. Not a middle reliever. I can go on and on here but I think you get the point. IMO the player in the deal that could be the best player in about 4-5 years is Logan Allen…. but his sample size is so small in the minors it’s impossible to give a true opinion. However, in his 24.1 IP I do like what I see. Specifically that 1 walk in those 24 innings. 1 WALK. That’s the most impressive stat among the 4 prospects the Padres received IMO. That’s a pace for like 8-9 walks over 200 IP. Then he K’d batters at a 9.4 K/9 clip. So about 210 Ks vs. 9 BBs in a season…….. that would be crazy. I’m getting ahead of myself on Allen, but he’s the most intriguing in my eyes. Too bad he’s at least 5 years away from the bigs seeing as he’s going to be only 19 in 2016. That would make for a debut at age 23. I hope Padre fans like waiting.
What do the Cubs have to do with this post?
Overrated? I don’t think so. Overpaid? Yes. The Cubs did so well because their starters were able to go 6-8 innings limiting the bullpen. The Royals just showed that two (three if you want to count Holland when he was healthy) dominant bullpen guys can change a game. When Holland was healthy, all they needed was 6 innings (and 7 after he got hurt) from their starter because the pen could finish the game for them. The Mets also lost the World Series because their pen, specifically their closer, couldn’t hold a lead.
Really they weren’t in bad shape if they only got 5 from a starter, could go Madson-Herrerra-Davis-Holland
the cubs starters didnt go deep in to games. arrietta and lester went deep in to games. all other starters had short leashes and were even pulled before the 5th having allowed 0 runs and no pitch count issues. strop, rondon, grimm and wood were all excellent in bullpen roles.
The Reds are insane if they honestly think this deal doesn’t affect their market.
The Reds have an elite closer available. Boston wanted an elite closer. Boston gave up some very good pieces for an elite closer…to a team other than the Reds. How does that not affect you?
Just another example of a front office with gross misconceptions of reality
Chapmans value should be much less than Kimbrel. 1 year > 3 years.
I wouldn’t say “much” less, but yes less.
Chapman should still pull 2 top prospects
Does the Benoit deal have any influence on his value. Both are expensive and have one year left on the contract.
Also doesn’t change the fact that the Reds seem averse to doing the things everyone in baseball knows need to happen.
Good teams proactively make moves to improve their clubs. The Reds, not so much
Also doesn’t change the fact that Reds seem averse to making the moves everyone in baseball knows needs to happen.
Good teams proactively improve their clubs. The Reds, not so much.