ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price’s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.
Some more highlights from Olney’s column…
- Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
- The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
- The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
- The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
- The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.
You don’t trade Soler and then make a run at Heyward… You sign Heyward and then trade Soler.
Same thing I was thinking lol. Last thing I want happening is trading Soler and then being left out to dry with no one else really to fill in that OF spot. Gordon is a good Plan B after Heyward I like to add as well. Dont forget bringing back Fowler as well
I’m more shocked that the cubs didn’t make any moves yet for pitching, not even for zimmermann or price, I was pretty sure they would of had one of those two
They need a 2nd tier starter more than anything. They have to save some of their money for some of the expensive extensions coming up in the next few years.
By the time most of these players need an extension the Cubs will have their own billion dollar network. Only guy worth extending before 2020 is Arrieta. Even he has 2 years of control left before an extension is required.
Kind of like how the Cubs got
Montero and then tried to trade Castillo?
How did that work out for the Cubs?
The way it was supposed to… Montero did his job perfectly fine and Castillo was traded for bullpen help
I’m not sure if the $20 mil a year that Heyward will likely cost is that big of an improvement over the considerably cheaper Soler (5 yrs /$22 mil). Miller has three arbitration years ahead, which will likely be more cost than Soler’s contract. Olney’s suggestion would likely carry a cost exceeding $25 million annually, versus keeping Soler at a cost of $5 million. You can sign a #2/3 pitcher in that price range.
You have to realize that whoever signs Heyward it will likely be a 10 year deal with an opt out clause after 5. You back load the contract so that over the first 5 years he gets an AAV of about $17M. Then the back half he gets about 23M AAV. But if he maintains his .290 BA and .350+ OBP, and sees his power return to be a 20+ HR threat to go along with those 20 SBs AND play stellar defense….. he’d likely opt out after 5 years because he’d fetch more than 5 years and $115M as a free agent. He’s essentially a 5 year $85M addition. Which is why signing him shouldn’t freak anyone out. He should play CF in my opinion and bat lead off. Plugs 2 holes with one player. And if the Cubs can get Shelby Miller by just giving up Soler then I have no clue what they’re waiting for. Chris Coghlan is still on this team and a more than capable stop gap until a minor leaguer is ready. Schwarber, Heyward, and Coghlan from left to right….. I’ll take it.
You dont trade soler at all. He’s 23 Hayward is 26. Solers potential is sky high. He needs to stay he has 6 years at least left on that 9 year deal.
I promise you it would take more than Soler to get Miller.
Strange thing to promise.
Then you’re overvaluing Miller, and undervaluing Soler. He’s locked up for a long time. Miller isn’t an ace by any stretch. A nice pitcher, but not worth multiple top notch guys. If it’s Soler+, it’s Miller+ coming back.
20+ teams are on Miller, so it will cost Soler+.
The Braves are rebuilding. Soler is young with great potential. The Braves will get many offers for miller. A rebuilding team could do much worse than soler who is 23 and cheap and under control for many years.
Miller is proven, its gonna take more than potential to get him.
Miller is not proven lol
Miller isn’t proven, but had better numbers than the man that cost $150+ million just last off season.
Who is this man that he was better than?
You mean Lester? Might want to look again
Not so much. He had a better ERA by 0.32….. that’s pretty much the only thing he bested Lester at. He has a career 3.22 ERA but his FIP is 3.82 which is cause for some concern. Meaning his ERA might be artificially low and struggles could be in his future. He walks a good amount of batters without having anything overly dominant to strike out a lot of guys. If anything he’s a poor man’s Jordan Zimmermann right now.
Miller is what? GTFO here
Miller still has control issues, and he is hardly an overpowering pitcher which means he’s a #2-3 quality starting pitcher. Not to bad, but hardly this bonafide Ace you’re hyping him up to be.
Everyone seems to be under valuing miller. Hes been extremely solid since coming into the league, is still young and pitched to a sub 3 era last year….
But they could also do better 🙂
Soler strikes out at an alarming rate He has great tools but he has not put together every thing at the plate. He’s also been fairly atrocious in the OF. He had a rough 2015.
Soler struck out at a 25% clip last year and a 30% clip this year. I wouldn’t call that “alarming”. Javier Baez rates from last year is what I would call alarming.
Giancarlo Stanton….. 30% K-rate in 2015….. 28% for career
Justin Upton….. 26% K-rate in 2015…… 24% for career
Chris Davis…… 31% K-rate 2015……. 31% for career
JD Martinez….. 27% K-rate 2015…… 25% for career
Point is you can still be an excellent player despite a K-rate near 30%. This was Soler’s first full season at the major league level. He’s going to be 24 next year. Cut him some slack. Yes, he had a 30% strike out rate last year and a 29% rate in his 501 ML plate appearances. Even if that doesn’t go down he still can be a solid .270, .340+ hitter with 25 HR power…… which is a lot more than a lot of Braves current position players can say. As for him being “atrocious” in the field. I think you might be exaggerating a little. Even if he ends up being a slightly below average fielder his bat will more than likely make up for it.
Just saying if the cubs tried to make a package for sonny gray, I am pretty sure Soler would have to be involved or Schwarber
Probably both. Gray is probably the most valuable pitcher in the league considering his numbers and cost
I would say Sale.
Gray is better than Sale and under control for just as long
Uhm… no.
Sale (when healthy enough to be on the mound) is way better than Gray. Looking at Gray’s numbers I don’t know. His BB and K rates aren’t anything to go to crazy over. His FIP is nearly half a point HIGHER than his ERA. don’t get me wrong he’s a heck of a pitcher, but I need more than 491 IP to be completely wowed by him.
I’d rather see them trade for Quintana, Miller, or Salazar.
I don’t understand why people are suggesting that Soler is blocking the potential acquisition of Heyward. Heyward can play CF,
He can, but you can do better and leave him in the position that he rules at: RF. Never understood why ATL didn’t give him more of a chance in CF, rather than signing BJ Upton to play CF.
I guess that depends on the alternative.
Would I rather have Heyward-Soler patrolling the outfield next year or Heyward-Austin Jackson? I’d still take the former.
It would be Heyward-Soler or Heyward-Coghlan…. not Jackson. At least not right now since Jackson isn’t even on the team.
I wonder what team made that offer to Samardizja , maybe the angels
His agents mind maybe 🙂
Two things:
1. If Schwarber and Soler are gonna play the corners, the Cubs should look for a more defensive minded CF and not focus on his bat so much. The rest of the bats in that lineup should make up for any offensive shortcomings in CF. One player in mind is Juan Lagares, though I am unsure if the Mets would trade him.
2. If Shark has a 100M offer on the table, I really hope that it is from an NL team. I know he has less mileage on his arm because he has only been a starter since 2012, but a 4.96 ERA with the White Sox (albeit in a hitter’s paradise) must concern some AL general managers. Dont think the Yankees would be a good fit for Shark for that reason.
I completely agree with #1. Jackie Bradley Jr. makes a whole lot of sense to me.
What do the Cubs have to offer for Jackie Bradley?
Albert Almora or Billy McKinney and Dan Vogelbach. Bradley has shown he is offensively impaired and is just a good glove. They’ll get a player with similar defense in Almora or McKinney but superior hitting, only difference is they’ll still be a couple years away; and Vogelbach is really only good for hitting, but big papi is retiring after this year so Vogelbach would be able to do that for them
Trade does not make any sense to even ask for, Yes Carrasco has a nice contract but so does Panik and Belt, figuring the cost to replace those two they might as well spend on a SP.
Not to mention, a package of Panik + Belt is way, way more valuable than Carrasco… and it’s not even close.
Pretty much Cleveland isn’t trading Carrasco unless you overpay for him. They are trying to improve the team with Carrasco contract so team friendly and the fact he matured a lot last season they are banking on him netting more than he is worth or just keeping him
A Miller-Soler swap would be bad for the Cubs IMO for a few reasons:
1. Soler is under control for 5 more years compared to Miller’s 3 years.
2. Impact bats are much harder to find than impact arms.
3. Pitchers are a much greater injury risk than position players are.
4. Soler is making pennies in the rest of his contract compared to what Miller likely will make in arbitration.
If Chicago is so dead set on making a Miller-Soler swap, they should insist Atlanta gives up another player of value in a potential deal.
Then the Cubs can find an impact arm some where else since its so easy.
Never said it was “easy” but I think a Shark reunion is a better idea for the Cubbies.
Also, if I was the Cubs I would only do a Soler-Miller swap if I KNEW I could get Heyward or Gordon.
100 million on Shark 155 million on Lester and Arrieta extension how will the Cubs keep all the impact bats?
Rizzo already locked up for 6 years and Bryant/Russell/Schwarber and Soler are all under control for 5-6 years.
And the Lester figure is wrong, thats what the contract was BEFORE the year started
Because shark isn’t getting 100m from the cubs (at least i hope that it wasn’t them if that offer is legit)
2020 TV deal, that’s how. Once that happens, and the park is done being renovated this team’s payroll will be reminiscent of what the Dodgers are currently doing.
LOL Shark a better idea. No way in hell at 100 million or more is he a good idea.. If Soler was an impact bat, they wouldnt be trying to trade him..
Who said they are trying to trade Soler. Teams are inquiring and the Cubs may know to get Carrasco or someone similar you have to trade talent to get talent.
They wouldnt entertain the thought…that better? Based on the above theory..
Would rather have Salazar than Carasco
Being from Cleveland, Carrasco actually has matured and will be better than Salazar. Also Carrasco has been signed long term while Salazar hasn’t been
If Miller was this bonafide Ace they wouldn’t be trading him. The Cubs “only” have like 7 top OF prospects…. I think that might be why they are opening to trade Soler. You know, kind of like how the Braves have like 20 pitching prospects and why they are willing to trade away not only Miller but the rest of the rotation they currently have as well.
What impact arms are out there if they are easy to find?
Again, I never said “easy” but it’s a pitching game these days and impact bats are more valuable than impact arms are. Just look at all the starters who have sub 3.50 ERA’s compared to 10 years ago.
And the arms they could go after are Chen, Shark and Lackey who may not be as good as Miller but will cost less.
A sub 3.50 era does not equal ‘ impact arm”
I guess our definition of “impact” may differ. Only four teams had starter ERA’s below 3.50 this year.
Yeah a guy with a 3.50ish ERA is no ace, that is true. But he is sure as hell better than Hendricks, Hammel, Wood and the other in house options than what they have.
Yeah that’s good…. but his 3.82 FIP, 3.2 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, and 1.24 WHIP for his career is hardly screaming top of the rotation. He’s a solid #2 quality arm but will likely fall to #3 quality in terms of numbers as his career progresses the next few years. Sooner or later that high FIP and 3.22 ERA are going to meet up in the middle and level off. That means about a 3.60-3.70ish ERA.
You are completely under estimating millers abilities. There are guys who constantly out perform their FIP. FIP is just a projection, there are way too many variables in baseball. Miller is still really young and has been dealing ever since he came into the mlb.
How will Shark, Lackey cost less than Miller? Through arbitration you’re looking at less than Happ’s 3/32 deal. So, Happ or Miller? Shark’s supposedly got a $100M deal on the table and Lackey will have a short contract at a high AAV, most likely. And Chen I won’t dignify with a response.
not just strictly in terms of money, but in what you have to give up in players.
You have to give up something to get Miller, but I think getting Lackey on a two year deal before all the youngsters hit arbitration is a good option.
Forget the whole think about Shark it just sounds silly the more i thought about it lol
Are you factoring in that Shark/Lackey will cost a top pick because they turned down their QO?
28th pick…meh
Yeah its not like they are picking 11-15, where losing that pick would hurt alot more
not to include the fact that MLB draft picks are less valuable than they are in the NFL/NBA because of the far lower success rate of draft picks in baseball.
Lackey is an even worse idea than Samardzija.
You never said “easy” but you did say that impact bats are harder to find than impact arms. Chri, what’s the opposite of hard? Let’s do an experiment. Let’s say the same thing just worded in reverse order. Here we go.
Impact arms are easier to find than impact bats = impact bats are harder to find than impact arms
Less than 60 SP last year had an ERA under 4. Impact arms are way harder to get.
How many impact bats do the Cubs need? Also, I believe Solar can opt into arbitration (if that’s the right term) at some point in his contract. Still controlled, but the more he produces the more he’ll cost. I guess a nice problem to have.
He’s still under control and even through record-setting arbitration, he won’t earn what he could as a free agent, which tends to overpay for power — providing he is producing.
I don’t know what rundmc is talking about, but the way it works is that when he would hit his what would normally be arbitration years he can opt out and take what he can get through arbitration. So I think the last 3 years of his deal which currently pays him $4.67M annually those last 3 years he can opt for arbitration…. which if he becomes what everyone thinks he’ll become, he’ll likely opt out and get more than $4.67M annually. He’s a FA after 2020 regardless.
5) Impact arms are the most expensive element of baseball right now. While Greinke/Price debate between $30-34 million per year, you’d have the ability to go after someone like Heyward for $20 million per year. Now, who exactly has the bargaining power?
CHC insist on ATL giving up someone else in a Soler-Miller swap — when there’s 15+ teams in on him. Yeah, right. Let’s see what happens.
Doesnt matter how many teams are ” in on him” if the Braves keep asking for the moon
You do understand that the price isn’t what an item is valued at, but what someone will pay for it, right? Take Grinke/Price/Zimmerman off the market, someone doesn’t want to pay Cueto, they have the prospects but don’t want to give up their top draft pick to someone with a QO – why not trade for Miller? You save a lot of money that way that you could reallocate somewhere else.
And since when is Soler/Seager the moon? We’re not giving Miller away without a serious sacrifice. Good for Coppy. Hold firm.
Why not..wellll..they asked for Pollock form DBacks..not happening…wanted Pederson from Dodgers….not happening…wanted Duffy or panic..not happening..etc..etc..etc…..sure, some team may have a brain fart and cave but I doubt that for a guy like Miller.They may have to settle for Soler…so really, the reports of all the teams in on Miller dont mean a heck of a lot
Why not trade for miller? Well…Ross, Carrassco, Salazar, and Quintana. Additionally, what team doesn’t want to give up their draft pick for a qo, but is willing to trade the talent the braves are asking? Doesn’t make a ton of sense.
White sox arent rebuilding, quintana is staying put. Cleveland isnt moving their young arms for less than a MLB ready quality bat
Lol impact arms are not easier to find than impact bats…. What? If impact arms are easier to come by then why did Hart stack the Braves top 30 with arms? Because its not easy maybe…?
Wow. First, Soler has the option to either keep his salary once he hits arbitration or opt for what he can get in arbitration. Meaning, his salary WILL go up here in a few years. So it’s not as “pennies” as you may think.
Pitchers do have a high injury risk. But ask Soler about injury risk.
Impact bats are much harder to find than impact arms???? Since when?
True, Soler is under control longer, but if you can add a reliable quality arm like Miller you take it. The Cubs only have McKinney, Almora, Happ, Dewees, and Zagunis as OF prospects….. and those are only the ones ranked int their top 10 prospects. They still have Eddy Martinez who they just stole from the Giants this past year (ranked #12 in cubs system) and Eloy Jimenez (ranked 14th). That’s 7….. SEVEN quality prospects they have to potentially replace 1 outfielder. I think they can “sacrifice” Soler for a quality arm.
I think everyone needs to chill out and realize that the Braves will deal Miller when the time is right and they get the greatest return. That could be this offseason when there are 20 teams in play. OR it could be July 31st when there are 10 slightly desperate teams in play. They can wait and still cash in.
Of course they could also wait and risk injury and/or regression.
Oooooohh so injury and regression should limit someone’s trade value? Just like Soler was injured and regressed last season? Meaning nobody should be saying that Miller isn’t worth Soler in a trade?
You trade him now when his value is highest..even with the losses his value will not get higher than right now.
The losses actually help his value. Limits what he will get in arb as a result.
It certainly will if he has another good first half. And according to the experts on here, he’s only good in the first half (they are wrong).
With Jason Kipnis signed through 2020, why would the Indians want Joe Panik anyway? I get that he is a good young player, but he’s not better than Kipnis. It seems like they have many more pressing needs to fill.
They’ve talked about moving Kipnis to the outfield in previous seasons, so I guess that could be an option. Also they might think one of them would transition well to 3rd which is a bit of a black hole for them.
I wonder if Carrasco + 1 blue chip prospect and another top 5 prospect in their system could get arenado?
I would think Carrasco plus Urshela would be the main part, but Cleveland won’t trade Zimmer of Frazier, they may be willing to part with their outfielders Naquin or Ramsey who aren’t nearly as good. Honestly feel Colorado will not get anything back near enough for someone that put up that type of production
I would say Miller was worth Heyward’s final arb season before free agency last year.
Now he has one less season of control and CLE is offering two comparable arms as well so getting 4-6 years of Soler or Pollock or Seager is a big ask.
Soler isn’t even close to the same thing as Pollock or Seager
Pollack and Seager are definitely asking too much. Soler is pretty much in line with Millers value. They both come with some risk to them.
How can you say Seager is clearly better? Were you that impressed by 27 games. I mean clearly that is a ton of playing time to make an informed opinion on how awesome a player is….. *sarcasm* Jorge Soler had just as hot a 24 game stretch in 2014 when he was called up too, now people are saying Soler is mediocre. Oh how short the mind of your average baseball fan.
If you dont think seager is more valuable than soler your bias is clearly evident as a cubs fan. Corey Seager was one of baseballs top prospects… not just the dodgers… but baseball. Dude is an absolute stud.
I think Soler for Miller is honestly a pretty even match. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go down before the end of next Wednesday.
As a braves fan not sure how I would feel. I don’t really trust Soler, but I don’t really trust Miller either so….and braves need bats so not a bad move.
Coming from a Cubs fan, if you guys do get Soler you will have a pleasant surprise. Ever since coming off the DL and working alot with the hitting coaches, he’s been able to improve his swing path and plate discipline. Guy has crazy bat speed, power, and hits a ton of line drives. Those will translate into homeruns soon enough, hopefully the deal (should it happen) ends up working out for both ends
If the Cubs can land Miller for just Soler then what the hell are they waiting for? Do it… yesterday and Sign Heyward NOW.
Cubs need to try to sign Fowler. 2Year deal for 23 million. That’s reasonable. He has more pop then Hayward and hes just as good on defense. And he’ll be cheaper too.