Archives for 2016

Knocking Down The Door: Brugman, Hader, Murphy, Slater, Smith

By Jason Martinez | August 24, 2016 at 6:26pm CDT

This week’s installment of Knocking Down the Door features a pair of lefty starters who are very close to graduating from the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, a strong contender for the Rockies’ catching job in 2017 and a couple of outfielders hoping for a chance to prove that their recent hitting success isn’t an aberration.

Jaycob Brugman, OF, Oakland Athletics (Triple-A Nashville)

It’s fair to say that the A’s could have two, if not three outfield spots up for grabs when the offseason begins (depending on the usage of Khris Davis, who is presently splitting time between left field and DH). And, while there’s no shortage of talented prospects closing in on the Athletics’ big league roster, it’s possible that those outfield spots are occupied next April by players not currently in the organization. August and September can be considered an early audition period for Jake Smolinski and Brett Eibner, who are getting a close look right now. Jaycob Brugman is currently on the outside looking in but doing everything possible to get an invitation.

The left-handed hitting Brugman, who has played mostly in center field this season, has a .393/.456/.539 slash line in August, including 13 hits in his last 22 at-bats. With Coco Crisp and Danny Valencia each potential August trade candidates—the A’s would just need to find a taker for Crisp; Valencia might not pass through waivers—there’s a chance that Brugman could jump right in to an everyday spot in the near future. If that doesn’t happen, the 24-year-old should still be able to take some September at-bats away from Crisp, who will be a free agent after the season.

Athletics Depth Chart

Josh Hader, SP, Milwaukee Brewers (Triple-A Colorado Springs)

When the Brewers needed a pitcher to make a spot start last week, they turned to a highly-deserving 26-year-old named Brent Suter, who they drafted in the 31st round back in 2012. Suter became the first left-hander to start a game for the Brewers in almost three years. Now in the bullpen after getting knocked around in his MLB debut, Suter might only be around to watch the next time a lefty makes a start for the Brewers.

After Josh Hader’s last Triple-A start—two-hit ball over six shutout innings with 12 strikeouts—it could be time to give the 22-year-old lefty a taste of the Major Leagues before he has to shut it down for the year. While his first taste of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League hasn’t been a walk in the park (4.79 ERA in 12 Triple-A starts; 0.95 ERA in 11 Double-A starts), Hader continues to rack up a ton of strikeouts (11.8 K/9) while keeping the ball out of the stands (0.4 HR/9). Both stats indicate a bright future for Hader, who should crack the Brewers’ rotation in 2017.

Brewers Depth Chart

Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies (Triple-A Albuquerque)

With Nick Hundley headed for free agency after the season, the Rockies will need to determine if they’ll be able to replace him in-house. They can do that now by starting to give defensive standout Tony Wolters more playing time to find out if he can hit enough—he has 11 hits in his last 20 at-bats, but has only started 12 games since the All-Star break—and/or calling up Tom Murphy, who is slashing .421/.461/.804 over his last 28 Triple-A games, to find out if he is good enough defensively.

In all likelihood, that duo should be able to more than make up for the loss of the veteran Hundley, who has subpar offensive numbers on the road and versus right-handed pitching this season. A call-up of Murphy, who didn’t embarrass himself during a September call-up last year (.876 OPS, 3 HR in 39 plate appearances), could result in a heated competition with Wolters that won’t end until Opening Day 2017.

Rockies Depth Chart

Austin Slater, OF, San Francisco Giants (Triple-A Sacramento)

Riding a 13-for-18 hot streak coming into Tuesday, Austin Slater was, probably unknowingly, as close as he had ever been to the big leagues when the Giants placed backup outfielder Gregor Blanco on the disabled list. But it was journeyman Gorkys Hernandez who got the call, mostly due to his speed and defensive ability, although he’s also having a good season at the plate and has 78 games of MLB experience under his belt.

While the 23-year-old Slater’s amazing second-half numbers (.353/.439/.640; 10 HR, 21 BB, 23 K in 37 games) have undoubtedly opened some eyes in the organization, he likely helped his cause further with two hits, including a three-run homer, on the day he was passed over for what would’ve been a well-earned promotion. Slater could get the call in September and has an outside chance to play a bigger role if the oft-injured Angel Pagan is unable to stay on the field.

Giants Depth Chart

Nate Smith, SP, Los Angeles Angels (Triple-A Salt Lake)

No team in baseball could use some good news from down on the farm more than the Angels. With their pitching staff decimated by injuries, they should be delighted with the the recent work of lefty Nate Smith, who allowed just one single over seven shutout innings on Tuesday against a stacked El Paso lineup (see Margot, Asuaje, Renfroe, Hedges).

While the 24-year-old Smith has had an up-and-down season in a tough league for pitchers, he’s likely done enough (4.62 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 7.1 K/9) to warrant serious consideration for a 2017 rotation spot. Of course, it wouldn’t hurt for the Angels to get an early look. With his innings total up to 142 1/3 after 137 2/3 in 2015, it should happen in the next week or two.

Angels Depth Chart

“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.

MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Jason Martinez | August 24, 2016 at 6:09pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of tonight’s MLBTR chat With Jason Martinez.

Byung Ho Park To Undergo Wrist Surgery

By Steve Adams | August 24, 2016 at 5:42pm CDT

Twins designated hitter Byung Ho Park will undergo season-ending surgery on his right wrist, the team announced to reporters, including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (Twitter link). The operation will repair a subluxation of the tendon on the back of Park’s right hand, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.

Park, 30, signed a four-year, $12MM contract with the Twins this offseason after Minnesota secured the rights to negotiate with him by submitting a blind bid of $12.85MM. The former KBO superstar looked to be a shrewd pickup through the first six weeks of the season, but his production quickly went into the tank. Park would ultimately be demoted to Triple-A, where it was revealed that he’d been playing through a wrist ailment. While he didn’t want to cite the injury as the source of his big league struggles, it does seem as though the balky wrist may have impacted his performance; Park batted a very strong .257/.342/.581 with nine homers through his first 120 plate appearances with the Twins but followed that up with a dismal .127/.210/.245 over his next 124 PAs. Most telling of all, perhaps, is the fact that Park punched out in 47 percent of his plate appearances over his final dozen games before being sent down. Park fared better with the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate but still struggled, hitting .224/.297/.526 with 10 homers in 31 games with Rochester.

While Park’s first season didn’t go as the team had hoped, the fact that he was able to slug 22 homers in a combined 93 games between Minnesota and Rochester suggests that the power that made him such a desirable free agent could eventually play at the Major League level. He’ll take the offseason to rehab the wrist and look to work his way back onto the big league roster next season, though the Twins have a glut of corner options that muddies the exact alignment for the 2017 campaign.

Joe Mauer is entrenched at first base/designated hitter and won’t be going anywhere thanks to a $23MM annual salary and a full no-trade clause. And while there’s a common refrain suggesting that Mauer get back behind the plate, the personal dangers of him doing so in the wake of concussion issues that lingered for years beyond his move to first base make that an unrealistic and decidedly unsafe course of action that won’t be considered. Miguel Sano’s brief trial in right field yielded poor results, so he’ll be in the picture back over at third base and designated hitter. The Twins also still have Trevor Plouffe as an alternative at third base, with Jorge Polanco and Eduardo Escobar both serving as options to see time at shortstop and also at the hot corner. Max Kepler’s emergence and a resurgent Eddie Rosario make it unlikely that any of Plouffe, Polanco or Escobar would move to a corner outfield spot. Switch-hitting slugger Kennys Vargas, too, adds to the Twins’ options as a potential DH.

The Twins were faced with a similar crunch last winter and elected to hang onto all of their corner options, prompting the ill-fated Sano-to-right-field attempt. Some form of offseason move to create roster flexibility seems possible, if not likely, especially considering the fact that the Twins are widely expected to hire a new general manager from outside the organization following Terry Ryan’s dismissal.

Minor MLB Transactions: 8/24/16

By Steve Adams | August 24, 2016 at 4:15pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…

Outfielder Ramon Flores has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Colorado Springs, according to an announcement from the Brewers. Milwaukee designated the 24-year-old for assignment last week after he struggled to a .205/.294/.261 batting line in 289 trips to the plate. The Brewers picked up Flores in an offseason swap that sent Luis Sardinas to the Mariners, and with Sardinas having been designated for assignment and traded himself, it’s safe to say that neither club has extracted the value it had hoped to achieve in the deal. Flores, at least, remains with the Brewers organization, though he can become a free agent this winter unless he’s placed back on the 40-man roster next month. The Venezuela native is a career .282/.376/.449 hitter in 655 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.

Carlos Ruiz, Ryan Howard Clear Revocable Waivers

By Jeff Todd | August 24, 2016 at 2:45pm CDT

Phillies veterans Carlos Ruiz and Ryan Howard have both cleared revocable waivers, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark (via Twitter). Both can now be freely traded without restriction, though only one week remains for players to be dealt while remaining eligible for the post-season rosters of their new clubs.

The news is hardly surprising, and it’s not altogether clear that either player holds much chance of being moved. The pair constitutes the last remaining players from the organization’s recent golden years, and neither has ever played for another major league team. Both are obviously well past their prime but remain expensive, and each possesses full no-trade protection via ten-and-five rights.

Two teams, however, are said to be “mulling” a move to add Ruiz, who is earning $8.5MM and is owed a $500K buyout on a $4.5MM club option next year. He is actually playing fairly well this year — particularly given that it is his age-37 season — in reserve action. In 193 plate appearances, Ruiz has put up a crafty .261/.368/.352 batting line, making up for his lack of power with a rather remarkable ratio of 28 strikeouts against 24 walks.

Meanwhile, says Stark, there’s no indication whatsoever that Howard will be moved — as had been previously reported. He is not only playing on a $25MM salary this year, but will still take home a $10MM buyout on a 2017 club option. The 36-year-old slugger is a limited player at this stage, though he is still capable of hitting right-handed pitching and has popped 19 long balls in 286 plate appearances. Howard is putting on a Philly swan song at the moment, as he has banged out five home runs and delivered a .378/.425/.838 slash in the month of August.

Orioles Place Chris Tillman On Disabled List

By Steve Adams | August 24, 2016 at 2:25pm CDT

TODAY: Baltimore announced the move, sending Tillman to the shelf and adding righty Mike Wright to take his place on the active roster. Tillman is said to be dealing with bursitis in his shoulder.

[RELATED: Updated Orioles Depth Chart]

YESTERDAY: The Orioles will likely place top starter Chris Tillman on the disabled list due to discomfort in his right shoulder, manager Buck Showalter revealed to reporters following tonight’s win over the Nationals (Twitter link via Rich Dubroff of CSN Mid Atlantic). Earlier this afternoon, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko wrote that Showalter gave an ominous message regarding Tillman, stating that the right-hander “did not have a good work day today” following a bullpen session that “did not go well.” The O’s are hopeful that because they’re able to backdate the DL trip to three days ago, Tillman will be able to be activated as soon as he is eligible, tweets Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun.

The loss of Tillman is a huge blow to an Orioles staff that already had a thin rotation. In 26 starts this year, Tillman has 3.76 ERA and tallied 153 innings of work. Tillman and fellow righty Kevin Gausman are the only qualified starters with an ERA south of 4.00 on the team (Gausman’s strong outing tonight just pushed him underneath that mark). Remaining starters Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley, Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Vance Worley and Dylan Bundy have combined to log a 5.70 ERA on the season. Bundy has actually pitched quite well since moving into the rotation, but innings concerns make it difficult to pencil him in for regular starts down the stretch after he was scarcely able to pitch due to injury in 2014-15.

Dombrowski: Red Sox Still “Open” To Adding Papelbon, Await His Decision

By Jeff Todd | August 24, 2016 at 11:52am CDT

The Red Sox are still amenable to reaching a deal with free agent reliever Jonathan Papelbon, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested in comments to MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link).

Last we checked in, a return of Papelbon to Boston — where he made his name as a big leaguer — seemed unlikely. And that may still be the case, especially since the longer Papelbon goes without joining an organization, the more time (and less opportunity) he’ll have to ramp up.

[Related: Up-to-Date Red Sox Depth Chart]

It seems that the ball remains in Papelbon’s court to move his career forward, as at least the Red Sox, and possibly other organizations, remain interested in signing him. As Dombrowski put it, “he has to decide what he wants to do.” If he has any hopes of throwing in the playoffs, moreover, Papelbon will need to sign within the next week, as post-season rosters cannot include players that joined an organization after the end of August.

Whether Papelbon and his representatives are holding out for more favorable terms, or have other considerations in mind, isn’t really known. But the long-time closer doesn’t seem to have much leverage. Teams may not be willing to give him assurances of how often he’ll pitch or in what role, if they are even willing to commit a major league deal to a hurler who had turned in a career-worst 4.37 ERA and hasn’t pitched in nearly three weeks.

Barring a string of injuries, it’s not clear that the offers will improve, at least from the Red Sox. As Dombrowski characterized things, there doesn’t appear to be much room for negotiation: “We are open, we did call, he has to decide.”

8 Hitters Lining Up Big First-Time Arbitration Salaries

By Jeff Todd | August 24, 2016 at 11:01am CDT

The principles of determining the arbitration salaries of hitters were established long ago by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. While the arb projection model is always being tweaked as it reacts to subtle changes in the process, the fundamental elements remain the same: for hitters to get paid, they need to take a lot of plate appearances, sock a lot of dingers, and rack up those RBIs. Other factors matter too, of course — and quite a bit more goes into making an actually productive player — but those are the major drivers of arb dollars.

So, who is set to cash in this year in their first time through the arbitration system? Players like Nick Castellanos and Yangervis Solarte have some of the attributes of big arbitration earners, but have had their playing time curtailed by injury. Other reasonably productive players, including Billy Hamilton and Ender Inciarte, just don’t add value in the right kinds of ways.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some hitters who are well on their way to commanding sizable first-year arbitration salaries this winter — locking up a first big payday and setting the a high starting point for future arb raises:

Khris Davis, OF, Athletics: With 33 home runs already in the bank, Davis has a decent chance to reach the 40-dinger plateau and reach the century mark for his career. And he’s a good bet to clear 100 RBI with 82 already on his ledger. As Swartz has explained before, awards and milestones can help boost an arb case. Davis’s lack of walks, middling .300 OBP, and subpar defensive work matter quite a bit more in real life than they do in the arbitration world.

George Springer, OF, Astros (Likely Super Two): Though he’ll only be eligible for Super Two status, that means that Springer is going to be setting a nice, high starting point for his three additional seasons of arbitration control beyond 2017. He leads all players on this list with 581 plate appearances, and he has produced 25 long balls and 72 RBI over that stretch. Though runs don’t seem to have a major impact on the arb valuation process, it can’t hurt that Springer is sure to top 100. And monster production in 2014-15 bolsters Springer’s case as well. Now we can see why the ’Stros tried to get Springer locked up to an extension before he was a fully established big leaguer.

Wil Myers, 1B, Padres: Though he doesn’t feature monster power, Myers is sitting with 23 bombs and could reach 30 by season’s end. He also has matched Springer with 72 RBI to date over his 530 plate appearances, to go with a sturdy .267/.343/.473 slash line. Plus, while steals don’t pay all that much, the 22 accumulated by Myers could help some. It was an advantageous time for Myers to finally play in over 100 MLB games in a season, though his prior injuries will tamp down his earnings somewhat since he hasn’t accumulated as many plate appearances and counting stats as he could have.

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Red Sox (Likely Super Two): Though he is actually out-slugging everybody else named in this post (.509), JBJ is tied for the lead in ribbies (72) and lags just a bit in dingers (21). Still, he’s going to command a healthy Super Two payday. (It seems safe to assume that he’ll qualify for that status with what will end up being 2.150 years of service at year end.)

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox: Bradley’s teammate is playing every day and producing at a fantastic rate for a shortstop, with the positional value likely to help his case somewhat. He has a chance to end the year with twenty homers and around 90 runs batted in, and Bogaerts is also tops among this group with a .310 batting average. Given his extensive action coming into the season, moreover, Bogaerts has more total career plate appearances than anyone named here — except for the next guy down.

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Marlins: Like Bogaerts, Ozuna has over 1,800 career PAs coming into the year and plays a premium defensive position. His demotion last year prevented him from reaching Super Two status last fall, but he’s making up for it with a big .277/.331/.489 campaign. Ozuna will probably top 600 trips to the plate, could approach (or maybe even reach) thirty long balls, and may end up with around eighty ribbies.

Brad Miller, INF, Rays: This year has had some peaks and valleys for Miller, who was moved off of the shortstop position but has largely thrived with the bat. Most notably, he has already banged out 25 home runs and carries a robust .262/.321/.522 batting line. There are some limitations here, including the slightly lower PA (455) and RBI (60) tallies thus far, but Miller is going to command a large first-time salary.

Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles: Good news, Fantex investors! Having already topped twenty dingers after twice popping double-digit home run tallies, Schoop is ready to cash in. He plays up the middle, which helps, and he’s likely to reach 600 plate appearances.

AL Notes: Encarnacion, Bautista, Angels Stadium, Holland

By Jeff Todd | August 24, 2016 at 9:36am CDT

Star Blue Jays first baseman/DH Edwin Encarnacion is facing a civil suit from a woman who claims that he knowingly infected her with sexually transmitted diseases, as TMZ recently reported. The unsettling allegations can be found here, courtesy of the Toronto Star. Encarnacion’s representatives have strongly denied any wrongdoing, with agent Paul Kinzer calling the lawsuit “frivolous,” as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. At this time, there is no indication either that a criminal investigation relating to the claims is being pursued, or that Major League Baseball will undertake its own investigation into the matter. One of the game’s best hitters, the 33-year-old Encarnacion is slated to become a heavily-pursued free agent at the end of the season.

MLBTR Mailbag: Turner, Marlins, Brewers, D-Backs, Thames

By Steve Adams | August 24, 2016 at 8:12am CDT

Thanks to everyone who wrote in with mailbag questions this week. If yours wasn’t answered, you can ask again in this week’s two remaining MLBTR chats — this evening with Jason Martinez (6pm CST) or tomorrow with Jeff Todd (2pm CST).

On to the Q&A:

What kind of contract is Justin Turner looking at in free agency? Do you think the Dodgers will pay to keep him? — John T.

Turner’s production alone looks like the type that could result in a five-year deal for most free agents, but he’s never played more than 126 games in a season (he figures to do so this year) and will be 32 on Opening Day next year — both of which will work against him in free agency. Jeff discussed all of that in detail in a recent assessment of Turner’s likely free agent standing.

Despite the drawbacks, there’s enough appeal with Turner that four years aren’t just on the table but are a likely outcome. Chase Headley parlayed a rebound second-half with the Yankees in 2014 into a four-year, $52MM pact in free agency that winter, and a much older Ben Zobrist secured a four-year, $56MM contract with the Cubs this past offseason. I’d imagine both of those marks will be targets that Turner’s camp looks to surpass, and my expectation is that they’ll do just that. I’m stopping short of a fifth year for now, but with a big finish and/or postseason performance, it’s not unthinkable.

I’m wondering if and when the Marlins will get some pitching help? Time is running out and if they want to make a run of this, they need to get pitching. — Lou

Any pitching the Marlins get in August isn’t going to be the type that fuels a miraculous turnaround in the rotation, but it’s also not entirely clear that they need one. David Phelps has gone from out-of-the-blue dominant setup man to out-of-the-blue dominant starter in his first four outings in the rotation, and the Marlins could yet get Wei-Yin Chen and/or Adam Conley back before season’s end. I doubt they’d be able to acquire a starter that would pitch in their playoff rotation at this point, but picking up someone like Jorge De La Rosa to supplant Jose Urena for the time being would make some sense. Plus, while the team says that Jose Fernandez’s innings won’t be an issue going forward, it wouldn’t hurt to be able to give him added rest if it’s possible to do so without jeopardizing the club’s post-season chances.

I’m just curious, where do you think the Milwaukee Brewers are in their rebuild? When the Astros and Cubs started their rebuilds, they basically started with weak farm systems and many overpriced veterans. It took the Cubs 5 years to finish their rebuild and the Astros 6 years. The Brewers rebuild started only last year, and they already have the top rated farm system in baseball (it was 25th beginning of the 2015 season) and many near MLB ready prospects. Will this be a short rebuild? — Hunter M.

They seem to be getting to a nice position, as you said, but there are at least a pair of rotation spots that need to be filled/improved upon (Wily Peralta, Matt Garza), and nothing has yet been proven at the MLB level by the players that the organization hopes will handle catcher, center field and shortstop. Meanwhile, Jonathan Villar will be hard-pressed to repeat his 2016 success (.400 BABIP, 25.8 percent strikeout rate). Some from the group of Andrew Susac, Lewis Brinson, Brett Phillips, Orlando Arcia, Josh Hader, Luis Ortiz, Phil Bickford and others will pan out, of course, but there figure to be some misses within the upper ranks of their well-stocked farm system, as is the case with any club. The Brewers also face the unenviable task of trying to leapfrog not only the division-leading Cubs but also the perennially excellent Cardinals and talent-laden Pirates.

Bottom line: Milwaukee is in good shape, and GM David Stearns and his predecessor Doug Melvin both deserve credit for the young talent they’ve accumulated, but they’re still a long shot to contend in 2017 from my vantage point.

If the Diamondbacks fire La Russa and Stewart, how has this disarray affect their ability to pursue quality front office personnel. If I was a GM candidate, I would not touch this job with a ten foot pole. — Doug B.

That’s a significant “if” at this point, as we still don’t know anything definitive about the fate of Arizona’s baseball ops staff. That said, most aspiring general managers in the game would surely leap at the opportunity to head up a team and attempt to build around Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Jake Lamb and Zack Greinke. The D-backs just signed a $1.5 billion television contract in 2015, and they’re pursuing a new stadium as well. Setting aside that there are only 30 positions in the game for those who aim to head up a baseball operations department, there’s plenty of appeal to the D-backs gig.

Is Eric Thames a top 50 free agent if he is made available? The way KBO hitters have fared lately doesn’t seem to do him many favors. — Jake

For those that aren’t aware of Thames’ success overseas, the former Blue Jays/Mariners/Orioles outfielder has batted .355/.458/.737 with 120 homers in 367 games playing for Korea’s NC Dinos over the past three seasons. Thames’ ability to translate anything resembling that level of production to the majors will be met with extreme skepticism, of course, but if he hits the market this winter he’ll absolutely have a spot on our Top 50 free agent list. We determine that list based on earning power, so anyone with a chance at earning a two- or three-year deal with decent annual salary typically makes the cut. Thames’ market will be quite difficult to predict, but he’ll only turn 30 this winter, so he’s coming off some eye-popping production while still in the midst of his prime years.

As to the performance of players moving here from the KBO, there have obviously been some ups and downs, as you’d expect from any group of hitters, but the overall record is pretty good. While Byung Ho Park has struggled to adapt, he has at least shown that his power can play in the majors. And both Jung Ho Kang (.243/.326/.481) and Hyun Soo Kim (.317/.397/.432) have been quite productive this year.

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