The Braves, Nationals, and Padres are all expected to bust their international spending allocations for the upcoming July 2 period, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. With many other clubs serving the first or second year of their own bans on doling out $300K+ bonuses to pool-eligible players, and other organizations not heavily invested internationally, it appears these three clubs are prepared to enter the void.
As Badler explains, the teams don’t yet know exactly how much cash they’ll have to spread, but the general spending capacity won’t come as a surprise since it’s based on prior year’s record. Teams can also acquire individual spending allotments from other clubs via trade, and with many organizations unable to spend all of their slots, there should be plenty available. But a club can only increase its total allocation by 50%, so even adding in some new capacity presumably won’t keep the teams from avoiding the penalties.
The disincentive for going over the pool, of course, is a 100% tax on overages above 10% as well as up to a two-year timeout (after a 15% excess) on future bonuses of over $300K. But it’s long been expected that changes could be coming to the international amateur market — as commissioner Rob Manfred just addressed yesterday — and it’s certainly possible (but hardly certain) that budget-busting organizations won’t end up being handicapped under a new system.
Atlanta, especially, is expected to attack the market, per Badler. He says that the rebuilding organization is lining up a series of signings that could equal or exceed the Yankees’ spree from 2014-15. Their biggest targets are top-shelf infield prospect Kevin Maitan and fellow Venezuelan standout Abrahan Gutierrez, a catcher.
Meanwhile, the Nats are looking to build on their success at low-budget international signings with some real cash at their disposal. A pair of middle infielders — Dominican Yasel Antuna and Venezuelan Jose Sanchez — are near the top of their list.
Likewise, the Padres have not only been laying the groundwork for a series of deals with Dominican and Venezuelan players in the $1MM range, but are eyeing a major strike on the burgeoning market for young Cuban talent. Badler says that the San Diego organization is attempting to convince several players who may soon become free agents to wait for the new signing period to ink their deals.
Not sure what the Angels have been doing in IFA the last few years, haven’t been really paying attention, but you’d have to think they should be signing everybody possible. Their farm system is in total shamble.s. The fact that Torreyes, who they just claimed from NY, is now a top 10-15 prospect for them is really bad.
I think they went over on Baldoquin a year or two ago.
I sure wish the Mets. Would be more aggressive in the int’l market. Omar did well there, Sandy….not enough of a focus.
Undue criticism. Let’s went to the limit signed Hernandez last year to a high bonus. The year prior signed Ali Sanchez, Luis Carpio, and Ricardo Cespedes who all have decent profiles so far in their adjustment to the minor leagues. This year landed 2 top 30 prospects, went over the threshold briefly before dealing Bumgarner to the Angels for more space.
This pretty much explains why the Braves went so pitcher heavy in trades and the draft, they were counting on building their offense via IFA. Frankly, if they can nab Maitan, Gutierrez and Severino that would be a major coup and a big boost down the line for their bats.
Not only that we’ve already sense pitchers getting flipped for an outrageous amount. Tehran has a big first half with that contract they could get another hall.
I sure hope so, because this has been my answer to where the offense will be coming from when people bring up the weak free agent class. Also it’s interesting to see what the O’s do with Weiters at seasons end
Building their offense with a bunch of 16 year old IFA’s? Well if they get lucky and things go well, they could compete in about 2022 or 2023.
Looking forward to it
long term it’s smart, in the immediate future it will impact very little, but if these guys develop it lessens the need to spend big on bats via free agency and frees up their planned future spending giving them lots of options on offense building short term. Plus, the pitching is spread around all levels of the minors making it possible that in 3 years 3-5 of the rotation could be cheap, homegrown talent with the IFA bats soon on their way. (not to mentio guys like Swanson, Albies,Riley and Braxton Davidson could already be on the big squad too. Having lots of young players in the system is always a good thing.
Well that’s not what it means at all. Those kids are to matriculate into a team/system that is already looking at contending in ’17-beyond. Hart has made that clear on numerous occasions. He’s already stated that ’17 he would start to open the war chest to bring in more free agents.
He’s done nothing for the last 15 months or so but shed money and add prospects but still managed to put a pretty legit .500+ team on the field for 2016 and that’s without a set starting rotation.
I don’t think many people agree with your assertation that the Braves will be a .500 team in 2016. Las Vegas has them in the bottom 2 or 3 in baseball with the over/under at 68-69 wins depending on the casino you bet at. Fangraphs projects them winning 69 games. The Braves have a much better chance of losing 100 games than of winning 81.
And how many people lost their shirts when Las Vegas had WSH crowned WS Champs 2015?
Saying the Braves are anywhere near a .500 team is absurd and borderline trolling, if not outright trolling. Also, I yawn at the notion that the Braves will “overspend” on 16-year-olds who MIGHT be good one day far from now.
The bottom line is the Braves are owned by a cheap, greedy corporation that refuses to invest in its on-the-field product.
you say the Braves will overspend in one sentence..
and then in the next one say they’re cheap- okay, gotcha
Lol alright so lets begin:
1. here’s literature on Liberty Media and its involvement with the Atlanta Braves; http://outfieldflyrule.com/2015/11/13/the-atlanta-braves-liberty-media-and-misplaced-anger/
2. You were probably the same person last year who called me a troll when I said the scrap heap of a team they put together last year could easily see itself at .500 and above.
3. I have no reason to troll here because I am an active participant of this site. Hart put together a team last year that was basically a moneyball play (in the crudest way). Sell the talent, load up on prospects. Free up money along the way ala Kimbrel, Upton/Upton, Heyward. While the Braves had and have taken on money most of it is or will be off the books soon. Arbitrations are at an all time low and the most important components that made the team .500+ last year (before Grilli and then the firesale). Markakis, while losing power, which I personally think he’ll get back, has hit for average w/ Gold Glove defense to boot.Freddie is still there (as of now), Aj has come back a long with Flowers (who is known for good frame work). Aybar who can hit for average and has speed still. Peterson the jury is still out. Inciarte has immediately upgraded the top of the order. Hector Olivera and Adonis Garcia (who is mashing winter league). Its definitely feasible for them to be .500 before factoring in the pitching.
4. The bottom line is you don’t know what you’re talking about and should probably refrain from calling someone a troll until you proofread
Maitain could be something truly special. They supposedly have a handshake agreement with him for around $4.5M. I know he’s extremely young, and while you’re seeing just a very small sample of him taking batting practice from both sides of the plate and playing SS, type in his name on Yotube. It’s hard not to get excited about a kid that advanced. Pretty much every scout that has watched him play has had nothing but positive things to say.
I think it’s well worth the risk. He’s easily the best player available in the draft and while his bat projects to play anywhere and has been praised for his defensive potental at SS, many scouts think he”ll be able to stick at 3B as he’s a pretty big kid who’ll add to his frame.
If the Braves do nab him, I’d be willing to bet that most people would slide him into an already stacked..top 10(possibly top 5) the minute he’s signed.
David, there’s a difference between “overspending” in the capped environment of international free agency. I’m sorry you’re too dense to understand that. It’s the poor man’s way to build a team and it takes forever to do it that way.
“Takes” forever…
I’ll agree that it will take at least 4 years and it’s pretty high bust rate..
but that’s not the only thing that the Braves are depended on…
they’re probably going to trade for bats at the trade deadline, and I don’t know if you agree with the fact that they could trade Teheran and Inciarte (since I’m not on mlbtr that often)… but I think they’ll trade for good OF bat prospect(s) with Teheran and Inciarte that will be ready by 2017 or 2018…. then the intl prospects will be up by 2021ish so it wont be that big of a deal since the future lineup only has holes in the OF and C in my opinion (and if we suck in 2016, I wan to draft JJ Schwarz- catcher at FLorida with our pick)..
ANd honestly..
look at the game of baseball- lots of superstars right now are from the intl market… the superstars like Trout, Kershaw, Harper are from US..
but Cabrera, Cespedes, King Felix, Sano, Bogaerts, Abreu, Bauista, David Ortiz, and Cueto are just a few stars in MLB from intl signings…
and like I said before, Its not like the Braves are only depending on the intl market…. we’re trading too..
There layercake goes with the trolling again.
“Markakis, while losing power, which I personally think he’ll get back, has hit for average w/ Gold Glove defense to boot.Freddie is still there (as of now), Aj has come back a long with Flowers (who is known for good frame work). Aybar who can hit for average and has speed still. Peterson the jury is still out. Inciarte has immediately upgraded the top of the order. Hector Olivera and Adonis Garcia (who is mashing winter league).”
The ironic part is you claim that I don’t know what I’m talking about, yet you type a paragraph like the one above. AJ and Tyler as any type of substantial duo? Inciarte is already being shopped and if Hector shows any ability to live up to his hype, he’ll be traded. Adonis? Oh, yeah Winter Ball is an EXCELLENT indicator of how a player will perform at the Major League level.
But you saved my favorite trolling sentence for last:
“Its definitely feasible for them to be .500 before factoring in the pitching.”
What does that even mean??? You are aware that pitching is factored in to the game of baseball, right? And no, it’s not feasible for them to a .500 team, offensively or defensively or imaginatively.
Don’t worry, MLB Trade Rumors archives posts, so you can come back and visit to see how right I am. Also, I like how you conceded that you said last year’s 95-loss team would play .500.
Oh wait, layercake, your last post was “layered” with so many trolling tidbits I forgot to respond to all of them.
– OutfieldFlyRule.com: great news source, No. 1 trusted, right? Love how the “story” you referenced begins by definitively shooting down the notion that Simmons will be traded. And folks can spin the relationship between the Braves and Liberty Media any way they choose, but when Turner owned the team, the Braves had one of baseball’s highest payrolls. When Turner sold the team, that luxury was gone and hasn’t returned.
– Markakis? LOLOLOLOLOLOL. In addition, the Braves would be wise to dump him back on Baltimore for anything they can get. The O’s need an outfielder after signing Davis anyway.
– Freeman. Ah yes, the Braves’ new token Golden Boy, carrying the torch passed by Chipper. Got to have that one token, right? Trade David Justice and Jason Heyward, but keep that Golden Boy around. I think it’s obvious that wrist of his is worse than “Braves Country” is leading on.
– No, the jury is not “still out” on Peterson. He’s average at best.
Keep trolling, layercake. You do it well. Also, such an appropriate username. Your posts have layers of trolling, as if each were a troll cake.
Restinpeacebraves…
~” Love how the “story” you referenced begins by definitively shooting down the notion that Simmons will be traded. “~
Where does it anywhere in that piece shoot down the notion that Simmons will be traded, definitively or otherwise? Al that s stated is that Jonah Keri tweeted something, that he isn’t usually a rumor-monger, and that Braves fans took to Twitter expressing outrage over the possible loss of a guy that many of those same fans had be decrying as overrated and overpaid.
But nowhere is a pronouncement made about whether Simmons will bee traded.
Jervess:
This article a total spin job that lacks objectivity and I can’t believe layercake posted it as a way to argue that Liberty Media isn’t a bunch of greedy, corporate owners. According to this story, LM “acquired” the Braves as a way to avoid major tax payments, because “asset” balanced out a $1.8 billion transaction between LM and Time Warner. LM got to pad their pockets and avoid tax breaks by acquiring the Braves – a real heartwarming, blue-collar story, I tell ya.
LM wants no part of the Braves and, even worse, they’re legally prohibited from funneling LM monies to the Braves because LM is publicly traded and all LM profits must go to shareholders.
So LM acquired an MLB franchise strictly for business purposes and can’t invest in it. What an awful ownership group that needs to sell – to an individual, not a scummy media conglomerate – immediately.
Oh, but you got me on the Simmons thing – great job of changing the subject.
Jesus you’re stupid. lol
I didn’t change the subject. You started your response to him with an incorrect statement, which I then corrected. I didn’t offer an opinion one way or the other on anything else you said in that, or any other, response or post on this page. My reply to you was in direct response to a statement you made.. So, if any ‘changing of the subject’ happened, it was when you introduced that statement.
As to the article, I can assure you that I’m pretty confident that the author wasn’t attempting any ‘spin job’, and instead was writing in to clarify misunderstandings about WHY Liberty Media hasn’t done things like give the team a $400M payroll.
The author wasn’t saying that Liberty Media was ideal ownership, or that they were preferred, or that they had not made mistakes. He was simply explaining what is.
It was a tax avoidance movement. The article is pretty clear in showing that Liberty wasn’t interested in the Braves in any specific way.
Should they sell? As a Braves fan, I would prefer to see an individual owner, since individual owners often let ego drive their decisions. They want a ring they can show off at parties.
But the league isn’t full of individual owners throwing piles of cash into their teams, over and above the team’s generated revenues. Nearly every team operates off the revenue it generates (whatever methods that may be). You may occasionally get a guy like Mike Ilitch who is nearing the end of his time here and spends a little extra out of his pocket to sign a player to make a run at a ring before he’s no longer here….but that’s the exception.
The Braves have almost zero chance of being a 0.500 team next year. Along with the Phillies and Brewers the Braves have the worst starting rotation in the National League. I liked trading Kimbrel to free the burden of B.J.’s contract. I liked trading Miller and think the D-backs overpaid. Trading Simmons hurt, but Newcomb has potential. Swanson and Albies look good. So all in all, I think the Braves had a good off-season. However, these were moves for 2018, not 2016. But you look at the talent with the Mets, Knats and even Fish, and there is just no way the Braves rotation will allow them to be a 0.500 team. The Markakis signing never made sense for a team in rebuild mode.
Yeesh. Markakis was signed to get the free agent market rolling, Hart needed to trade Heyward, Upton/Upton that offseason. The market for outfielders was slow to start. Once Hart signed Markakis the other fielders started being picked off the board allowing for Hart to make his other moves.
I have no idea why this doesn’t make sense to you as its been dissected a 1000 times and a 1000 different ways and the consensus is you get a gold glove outfielder for a reasonable contract (given the inflated prices currently ala Bj Upton’s contract). This contract serves two roles: 1. as a bridge to the 2017/18 season or 2. a trade chip either this summer/winter or even the following year.
Lets just use this as an example for 2016: http://rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?TeamID=ATL
That lineup isn’t nearly as bad as people are making it out to be, additionally we have Kelly Johnson back and he could assume Jace’s role at 2nd. Bourn will probably be replaced by Olivera so there’s that too.
The rotation may/may not include Folty (who i still think is the Braves future #9 after this year. He can learn from Grilli/Johnson). Once again its not terrible. Not great but 2016 is the year of showcasing. A whole lot of the pitching prospects are getting called up this year and from the way you and restinpeace Braves sound, you have little to no faith in them. Sorry but I’m not in your boat. I refuse to be a defeatist.
I’m being very realistic and I dont think many of you are looking at it that way. You compare it to: http://www.talkingchop.com/2015/4/5/8348837/atlanta-braves-roster-2015 — and explain to me how its not possible for 2016 to be a .500 team when that jalopy assortment was .42-46 the day Grilli went down and the firesale began.
But fine guys I’m trolling.
P.S. did you bother to notice we have one of the best pitching coaches in the MLB?
layercake, if I could, I’d bet you $500 the Braves finish 2016 below .500. Don’t discount the fact the Braves were playing close to .500 ball last year, so the front office retaliated by fire-selling the team in a series of midseason trades. They’ll do the same this year with Tehran, Olivera, Inciarte, Markakis and Aybar, along with anyone else not Freeman or whoever the front office deems as part of the 2018 roster.
It’s easy to see another talent dump coming from a mile away.
Where the Braves finish is up in the air. You can keep your $500 just buy me a steak. I don’t care if the Braves do trade every single player they have the point is the team as it stands can reasonably be considered a .500 team. You keep trying to make arguments within your framework. Nothing youve just said disproves my original point. That the 2016 starting lineup can easily be a .500 team if the team from last season was infinitely weaker offensively and still managed to hover around .500 @ all star break.
Your logic is arguing that the team won’t finish .500 because of the impending firesale. That isn’t what I’m talking about but you keep trying to force it on me. I know what I’m trying to say. I’m just trying to get you to understand. Which you don’t seem to want to do…. So I’m just going to stop now unless you decide to come round.
That’s not what I’m saying. Go back and look at that depressing RotoChamp link you posted and look at the Braves’ projected lineup and their projected stats. Then compare that to the projected lineups and stats of the Braves’ division opponents. We’re easily talking 90 losses, more likely closer to 100.
But, in the unlikely and miraculous event the Braves are hovering around .500 at the deadline (they won’t be, but if they were), there would be a fire sale to prevent a .500 finish. But the most likely scenario is they’re comfortably under .500 as the trade deadline approaches and they fire sell regardless.
In another post, you said “have little to no faith in them.” That’s true, because the Braves already had what they’re supposedly trying to build for – a young core that could grow together and become a contender.
They had a 96-win season in 2013. Not to long after they locked down Kimbrel, Simmons, Tehran and Freeman for deals that kept them under team control for at least several seasons and had other players like Heyward, J. Upton and Gattis on the roster. So instead of building around that core, ponying up to resign Heyward/J.Upton/Gattis, what does the front office do? Blow the team up.
That team that was dismantled was the core we were promised would be a title contender while those players were rising through the farm system. But instead of seeing the project through, the front office gave up.
Now they’re telling us wait a few more years, then that team will be the one that contends. And once that team hits the field, if they don’t win it all in a few seasons, that team will be blown up.
Yeesh. Its like talking to a wall but this wall unlike Reagan’s rhetoric can not be taken down.
We’ll skip the projections because they projected the Nationals to win the division every year and I’ll spend a hour breaking down each and every team (do not want).
Before I continue, I need you to understand one thing. You’re not a GM. You’re not a scout. You’re not an accountant. You have no knowledge of the inner workings of the Braves Front Office or their organization as a whole (ie. no knowledge still of Liberty Media’s role as owners). You’re a fan just like I am. But where you complain I try to find answers too or at least the silver lining.
Now if you agree with what I just said then your entire comment is moot because its based on what YOU want/ed. Clearly, you missed the countless debates amongst people just like you voicing the exact same arguments when the deals happened. The response was the same then as it is now. Money. Its annoying that we bogged down in “we should have never traded Heyward, Upton and Gattis”….. Yes we definitely should. If you don’t understand the financial side of the argument then you dont understand the dynamics of running and organization. Do you think the Braves could afford the contracts of Justin Upton AND Heyward (and we’re using what they actually got paid) meanwhile STILL paying for Bj Upton’s contract through 2017 (remember YOUR team still includes Kimbrel, meaning we wouldn’t be able to dump his contract). We’d still be stuck with Chris Johnson. We’d be relying on Gattis, who isn’t really a catcher nor a left fielder (hence why he was usually the Astros DH). Then you have the starting rotation NOT featuring Shelby Miller (once again you want to keep Heyward so there goes Shelby). Which means we’d be relying on a broken Beachy and Medlen + Teheran and whomever else we can fish out of the free agent market.
Now that team won 96 games but also recorded an incredible amount of strikeouts and a whole lot of those homers that we hit, were solo shots. You know why? Because no one was on base. Our team OBP was not great by any means. Now you want to keep that bunch together while still dealing with the rising arbitrations. You’re delusional man. Its just not feasible and its what cost Wren his job…. You’re basically arguing the exact same thing that got Wren fired. So good job.
This “core” you speak of is anything but dismantled. The core is just being refocused, into pitching. Inciarte + Markakis = good fielders who will save runs. Freeman + Aybar + Peterson range from above average to average defensively. Runs saved. Flowers is a good pitch framer and for the most part calls a decent game. He’s still young but hes experienced. He and Aj will help all these rookies coming through. Do you think Gattis would help them in their development? His pitch framing, game calling were all below average.
Instead of complaining and sticking to arguments that are full of lazy research and lack of knowledge try to look at the bright side. The Braves have so much talent in the minors that even if ONE pans out (Me personally, Newcomb because of his Lester comparison. Big power arm lefty’s are soooooo very hard to come by) its a win. Its a win based on money saved as well.
The Braves now positioned themselves to use high upside top 30 prospects to trade for more MLB ready talent and not have to worry about when their arb clock started or even look to trade and extend, because once again, money should not be a huge issue going forward.
You’re being like most Braves fans. A whiny brat (I too was victim of this). I spent my childhood being spoiled by playoff teams. If you cant be patient you need to hop off this train because the ride will have its highs and lows but the end game will be to die for.
I think Hart is trying to recreate Maddox, Glavie, Smoltz for when Cobb County opens. Look how much pitching hes amassed. Give the man a break. He’s moved mountains in an incredibly small amount of time.
You can’t recreate Glavine/Maddux/Smoltz. That’s like recreating Jordan. You’ve gotta spend money to make money – that’s how Turner did it. The Braves are going to suck hard for at least the next 2-3 seasons and possibly longer. You can try to remain positive and find a silver lining, but the tired arguments you hear have substance and the organization deserves nothing short of a boycott until they start winning.
You really should stop harping on and on about Turner. Turner wouldn’t spend nearly as much as you think he would today because the fanbase isn’t close to being as supportive as they were in those days. And that fatigue was already very set in prior to the recent troubles. Turner could spend big in those days since there was a silver lining beyond just winning a World Series. There’s far more risk in doing that today.
Are you kidding me? You ignored everything I said because you had no argument and then you want to try and pick apart my Smoltz quote? Really? Did I say theyre going to get exactly that? No, I said recreate. Could be better, could be worse. The farm has more than enough talent to find out.
No theyre not going to suck hard for 2-3 seasons. You just pull numbers out of thin air and ordain them as fact. There’s nothing that supports your assertion whatsoever. And are you kidding me? A boycott? Dude go away. You’re not a fan. You’re a whiny brat w/ an acute entitlement complex of “me me me”
You’ve got to spend money to make money? Is this baseball or a fortune 500 company? If its a company they are making money. See here: http://www.forbes.com/teams/atlanta-braves/ If you’re building a team. You have to understand arbitration clocks and value first. The Dodgers spent over a billion to get knocked out in the first round. The Nationals spent how much? Didn’t make the playoffs. The Yankees spent almost 2 billion. Yes they won in 09 then what? They have nothing but aging players with huge contracts no one wants. So yes feel free to Ted Turner it like a cowboy quoting how “…in the good ol’ days” See how far that takes you.
Like I said your Frank Wren mentality is what got the Braves in trouble in the first place. Those tired arguments are from people who think they have the answers as arm chair GMs. You guys dont know ANYTHING there a reason why some people get paid to make decisions.
Regardless of whatever hypotheticals you want to throw out there about what Turner would or wouldn’t do, I’m not going to sit here and cheer on a front office that trades the best closer in baseball to dump a bad contract, that trades the best defensive shortstop in baseball for two pitchers who may or may not pan out. The fire sale at the end of last season to ensure a sub-.500 finish. Every team this front office makes is for some season in the distant future, while they prop some cardboard cutouts to put on the field in the meantime.
Also, to layercake:
You just said the next crop of Braves pitching prospects could be better than Glavine/Maddux/Smoltz. Be careful, because if a moderator reads that, you might get banned from posting.
Your examples of the Dodgers, Yankees and Nats doesn’t apply to the current Braves’ tear down, because the Braves had a young nucleus locked up under reasonable contracts. The extra money I was talking about throwing down would have been on Heyward and Upton, both of whom aren’t in their 30s yet.
Sure, Wren signed a few bad contracts (Lowe, Kawikami, Uggla, Upton), but that’s not justification for a complete tear down.
Then don’t cheer them on. But don’t act like the moves were made without any logic or reason behind them. Kimbrel’s contract was an extreme luxury for a team in the Braves position, so it made sense to move him. Andrelton Simmons bat has never caught up with his excellent defensive prowess, so moving him at a higher value state also makes sense. Especially if you believe the reports that they were working on trying to get Swanson before they even made the deal. And if you don’t like that they traded it for unknowns then I have to wonder why you ever care about baseball, since those trades are the most common.
The Braves are building towards making a more balanced organization, which is what they should be doing. The Braves during the pennant years had great teams, but they also had one of the most consistently strong farm systems in baseball. The same could not be claimed of the Braves in recent years. They’re trying to fix that.
I don’t know why you’re explaining to me what the front office is doing like I don’t understand. Just remember, this all started with layercake trolling the board and saying the Braves are a .500 team. They’re at least a 90-loss team, they’re going to be bad until at least 2018 and everything else discussed here is just semantics until the Braves actually start winning.
I don’t agree with him that the Braves will be a .500 team. But I also don’t agree with you on even more points.
I’d bet on the Braves being sub .500 next season, but I definitely wouldn’t do that for 2017. Too much can happen between now and that point that it would be extremely foolish to make that claim.
When I say good, I mean to be in contention for a playoff spot. I’m not going to say the 2017 team finishes under .500, but I’m going to bet they finish close to. Also, going back to the Braves’ frugal ways, I wouldn’t be surprised to see all this young talent they’re acquiring be held back to delay their arbitration clocks (i.e. the Cubs and Kris Bryant). That is very likely and will be the clincher in the Braves not being good next year.
But still a lot can happen. Predicting the upcoming season presents problems, but predicting the following season becomes more and more of a crapshoot. Especially when you’re dealing with a team that does a lot of wheeling and dealing that is moving into a new stadium that season. A few things could go right during this season that leads them to deal from their pitching prospect depth for young impact position players for the 2017 team.
Is it likely that they become a playoff team by 2017? Of course not. But I would still stay away from absolute statements since baseball is a funny game.
I am absolutely saying the Braves will suck in 2016 (85-95+ losses) and will hover around .500 or below in 2017.
Restinpeace see you’re the one trolling and you know it: “You just said the next crop of Braves pitching prospects could be better than Glavine/Maddux/Smoltz. Be careful, because if a moderator reads that, you might get banned from posting.”
Now, back once again to you not understanding the financial side of baseball. I keep saying arbitration because its probably one of the most important pieces when assessing a team like the Braves. If we kept the band together like you wanted, yes we had a good chunky of that core signed to long term contracts. Fantastic. Wonderful. Thats great and all but that same core got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs by the Dodgers of all teams. Now we still needed to lock Heyward up but everyone (except for you) understood that he wanted more than Freddie. Thats why negoatiations went nowhere.
So we can’t sign Heyward and do we really want to tie up money in him + Justin Upton? Combined (excluding opt out clauses) thats already over $300 million in guaranteed money. Couple that with the contracts of Dan Uggla and Bj Upton and Freeman thats a half billion total in guaranteed money. This is guaranteed money that isn’t addressing the other pressing needs within the club. Most notably pitching.
Your team would have Beachy coming back along with Medlen. Both are still in arb. and even with four Tommy John’s between them their arbs were raising. So too was an also broken Mike Minor. So there’s 3 out of the 5 starters, hurt and/or working their way back from injuries that are being given raises via arbitration.
Our farm was depleted and the scouting initiatives of Wren and Co. had prospects too far off and playing the wrong positions. We really didn’t have starting pitching in the minors and those who were thought of as potential rotation pieces were traded away or claimed in Rule 5.
Now this is where Hart comes in. He see’s what I’m describing and considers it an unholy mess of inefficiency. He realizes that the team can’t afford to keep Heyward + Upton and be thought of as reasonable contenders as the old addage goes, “pitching wins ball games”. So lets blow this thing up.
You’re right we had good players signed to team friendly deals. Hart saw this and also saw the impending inflation of baseball salaries. So salaries are rising and not all teams can afford to compete monetarily what does that leave them? Farm systems.
So the Braves have no farm system but young MLB talent signed to team friendly contracts. The Cardinals have a decent farm and MLB ready pitching (what the Braves need) and voila Shelby Miller and Jenkins for a Heyward the Braves can’t afford and Walden (good reliever but replaceable).
So for 160 million less Hart turns around and signs Markakis lol. Markakis plays excellent right field and hit almost .300 this year. Yeah im failing to see how thats a loss for the Braves. But ok moving on…
Braves still have no farm but once again we have young controlled MLB talent. Enters the Padres. “The Padres acquired Upton and right-hander Aaron Northcraft from the Braves in exchange for left-handed pitcher Max Fried, the club’s No. 3 prospect, along with infielders Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson, outfielder Mallex Smith and the Padres’ fourth international bonus pool slot.”
Ahhh well look at this. So the Braves have now traded their two premiere outfielders and in return have gained 3 pitchers, one of whom is Shelby Miller, and 3 fielding prospects oh and look at that an international bonus pool slot. That I’ll get too later.
So now the Braves have an already vastly improved farm system and yet STILL has young, controlled MLB talent. So lets assume Hart takes inventory again and decides we’re not going to contend. So lets free up more money. Get more high upside prospects that can be nutured. Remember, the only person that the Braves have traded for so far that is arb eligible is Miller and meanwhile theyve freed up millions in commitments.
Here enters the Astros and the Padres(again). The Astros have added more right-handed power to their lineup, acquiring catcher/outfielder Evan Gattis and minor league right-hander James Hoyt from the Braves, the teams announced. In return, Atlanta will acquire a trio of prospects: right-handers Michael Foltynewicz and Andrew Thurman as well as third baseman Rio Ruiz.
Then there’s Padres yet again. Closers’ free agent contracts are going crazy. The inflation is real. The Braves have one of if not the best closer in the NL and MLB. He’s signed to a good deal that, at this rate, could quite possibly cost 10 million more today. Now Hart has decided that the Braves aren’t going to contend. So why would we keep Kimbrel in the years we’re not contending? His contracts value lies in the years controlled left. Keeping him for the sake of keeping him is ridiculous. Anyways hello Padres; The Braves created a stir early Sunday evening when they traded All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton Jr. to the Padres in exchange for two veteran outfielders — Cameron Maybin and Carlos Quentin. Atlanta also acquired two highly regarded prospects — right-handed pitcher Matt Wisler and outfielder Jordan Paroubeck — and the 41st overall selection in this year’s First-Year Player Draft.
So now the Braves dumped a terrible contract in Bj Upton and traded Kimbrel for Maybin (who was more than servicible for us) a salary dump + Wisler, Paroubeck AND another pick in the first year player draft. Once again how is this a loss? Freed up 10s of millions of dollars and got in return years of pre arb pitching + a draft pick
Now the Braves have the Padres farm (with a bit of Astros dust sprinkled in), freed up millions, gained international slot bonus + a draft pick. Yet STILL they have young, controlled MLB talent.
We saw what happened to the club once Grilli went down.Added to this, Simmons contract is a year older and Shelby is going to begin to get expensive even though hes still going through arb. Pitching still needs to be addressed along with the field.
“The Atlanta Braves traded Andrelton Simmons to the Los Angeles Angels for Erick Aybar and top pitching prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis on Thursday night.”
So let me get this straight. You’re mad that Hart traded Simmons for the Angels best left hand power pitching prospect another pitching prospect who can go either starting rotation or reliever + a former gold glove winning SS who hits for a higher average than Simba.
So now the Braves farm is top 10 and we STILL have a few gems (Teheran and Miller). “The Atlanta Braves trade right-hander Shelby Miller and minor league pitcher Gabe Speier to the Arizona Diamondbacks for outfielder Ender Inciarte, right-hander Aaron Blair and shortstop Dansby Swanson.”
This trade speaks for itself lol. We robbed them blind. It was awesome how badly we robbed them. It should be considered unpatriotic and borderline terrorism for any Braves fan to be upset with this trade.
So now the Braves have one of the best farms in the MLB. Freed up MILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIONS in contract obligations. Gained millions in international slot bonuses (all for a push for Maitan and company) + the #3 pick for 2016, the #40 pick (via the Marlins), + that first year player draft first round pick we picked up. Meaning 2 picks in the first round for us.
So now finally, i get to this point. The Braves have money for the 2017 and 2018 free agent classes. And 2018 free agent class? Good god its awesome: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/159474948/mlb-could-see-even-bigger-deals-in-2018 —
Like I said. Patience is key here. But I don’t think you’re an actual Braves fan. Now I’m going to hop off here at this juncture in the conversation. If you don’t get it now you never will.
P.S. yes there are some trades here I didnt mention but it just reiterates what I’ve been saying for now 2 days.
P.S.S. If Beachy, Medlen and Minor didn’t go down then maybe the band would have stayed together. But who knows.
/fin
Yep. Turner didn’t dump dollar after dollar into the team chasing free agents to win a Series. Payroll was high because the team extended young stars and traded for existing talent with favorable terms.
Yes, they signed Maddux. Maddux is an exception – perhaps even an anomaly, to use a word posted previously – in that he was the best player at his position available in his prime, and he took less money to play for Atlanta.
Like I’ve said, I understand what the Braves are doing. They’re forced to work within the limited parameters that go along with being owned by a media conglomerate that can’t invest in the team. But saying the Braves will outbid other franchises for any of the 2018 FAs that are on that list you linked is even more outrageous than saying the Braves will finish .500 or better this season.
Those players are free agents AFTER the 2018 season. By then, those young players will be hitting arbitration (the ones that happen to pan out, anyway) and the frugal Braves will just start the trading cycle all over again. They won’t sign a single name on that list you linked – mark my words.
You have literally nothing to back up those absolute statements other than rampant pessimism. There is no reason why the Braves can not afford a top free agent within the 2018 class. It’s just unlikely that they’ll rely on it to build their team around. The Braves also don’t have a track record like the Marlins for blowing the team up over and over.
You accuse others of trolling you, but your posting style is far more akin to it than anyone else commenting.
I have years of following the Braves to backup the absolute statements I make. The Braves have been there before. I remember when they were hovering around .500 in the mid-to-late 2000s while waiting for Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, Simmons, etc. to come up and Chipper made a comment when the Braves could have made a push midseason to try and get into playoff contention but they didn’t. Jones said something to the effect of “We’re waiting for the young guys to come up, so anything we do from now until then is gravy.”
Well, that team got here and the front office blew it up and is starting over.
Mark my words, not one player on that 2018 FA list that layercake provided will end up in Atlanta.
I’m not sure if you understand what a track record is. The Braves don’t have a track record for blowing up teams. One team getting overhauled does not equal a track record. The Braves even did lay out large amounts of cash, but made a lot of mistakes with it that the current management is trying to repair. That’s partially why they’re in this mess now.
And following the team for years does not back up your statements. People who have also followed the team for years are saying the opposite, so that obviously can’t be true. Like I said…it’s just pessimism.
Does this really even matter? Aren’t they permanently on the edge of reforming the cap and/or promising an international draft?
Yeah it matters. If MLB decides to alter the IFA signing amounts after clubs blow past their allotments, it will be screwing those teams that held their cash for later. This is changing the rules mid-stream. Not only is it patently unfair, it sets a terrible precedent for future negotiations. A change may be in order but it must be delayed until the teams are adequately punished for disregarding their limits.
There are other ways to account for it beyond just delaying some otherwise agreeable solution. Like, substituting loss of draft picks for the lost signing bonus ability.
Beyond that, it still matters because these teams are apparently preparing to drop large amounts of money on international signings. Whether or not there are penalties that accrue now or in the future, that’s still of interest.
Hey, thanks for the responses guys.
The IFA is overwhelmingly players that are 16-17 years, high school juniors. Even the best of them are not going to impact a MLB team for 4-6 years.
Some much sooner than others. Thanks to Cuba there is the occasional late entry and some of those “juniors” are ready in less than two years. I think the Rangers will go big and bust this J2 as well. Shocked there was no mention.
I can’t think of any that have made it that soon that were part of IFA. Can you name those players?
The recent trend of expediting the applications of Cubans seeking major league opportunities hasn’t quite caught up to that point yet.
Uhhhhhhh……..IFA? Puig…. should I go on? What about the rest of the statement. I wasn’t being negative, merely trying to keep the convo going. Guess I should of said RANGERS blow up the J2!!!!!!! That was the talk I wanted to illicit.
One that I thought of was (admittedly many years ago) Andruw Jones of the Braves. He signed as a 16 year old and was in the majors at 19.
While I generally agree that most IFAs that sign at 16 take many years to develop and become valuable contributors at the MLB level, there are definitely exceptions.
I also think that newer methods of scouting, projections and player evaluations have helped improve the crapshoot of signing boys and projecting the players they will be as men.
While still FAR from an exact science, it does appear to me that teams are getting better at predicting player development than in years past.
Yes, you should go on. Puig signed at age 21. The kids that this article is talking about is 16 & 17
It’s silly to name one or two exceptions to the rule with regards to 16- and 17-year-olds taking 4-6 years to develop. One person tried to name Puig, who, as has been pointed out here already, was 21 at the time. Then he said “should I go on?” as if he had a gamut of other examples locked and loaded. Another person named Andruw Jones. That was 20 years ago. One player has been named here as an example of a 16-year-old prospect being ready in less than four years.
From where I’m standing – as a Braves fan that watched the organization dump a young core of players controlled through at least 2017 – I couldn’t care less what the they do in the IFA market. Team management is telling me this team won’t be good until 2018, and there’s no guarantee of that happening.
And all these IFAs the Braves are supposed to “open the bank” for won’t be good for another six years, and that’s the absolute best-case scenario. They’re just as likely – if not more likely – to be busts or merely average.
So good luck with that.
Fine clearly I was only thinking of the IFA portion of the comment. So how about Jurickson Profar? Felix Hernandez? Rougned Odor? I did not check but they all debuted at 19. I am sure there are more I just have no interest in looking it up not really sure why my comment was attacked to begin with.
Because you’re naming anamolies. There are far more busts and players who fail to reach their initial high expectations or even live up to their signing bonus. So it’s misleading to name a few players spread out over years who happened to pan out within three years of being 16. That’s like someone saying they’re about to become rich because they bought a lottery ticket. Sure, a few actually win, but most don’t.
Playing the lottery isn’t the best way to get rich and signing a 16-year-old IFA isn’t the best way to build a team.
Wow you really want to “WIN” this convo………. you got me I named a few players that panned out.
Now tell em what he’s won!
What the hell are the Phillies doing…………….