The 2016 Major League Baseball season is at the quarter pole and the second month of the campaign is nearly over, which means the Aug. 1 trade deadline is looming on the horizon for all 30 teams. It’s time, then, to highlight several players who entered the season as prospective trade candidates and have since weakened their respective values, be it through poor performance, injury or both. All of these players generated trade buzz during the winter, and each is a member of a team that was expected to be a deadline seller entering the season and hasn’t done anything to prove that belief wrong in the initial 40-plus games.
Athletics
Billy Butler: The A’s had talks with other teams about trading Butler over the winter, but their hopes of dealing the designated hitter are all but gone now. Butler, who’s currently making $10MM and is owed the same amount in 2017, has declined significantly since his heyday in the Royals’ lineup from 2009-13 and is hitting .209/.243/.284 without a home run in 70 plate appearances this year. Since 2014, his swan song in Kansas City, the 30-year-old Butler has batted a meek .258/.319/.379 with 24 homers in nearly 1,300 PAs, and given that he provides negative value in the field and on the base paths, that type of offensive output isn’t going to appeal to anyone. It remains baffling that the A’s signed Butler to a $30MM deal in 2014, and now they’re stuck with him.
Sonny Gray: While the A’s fielded plenty of inquiries on the right-hander during the offseason, they made it clear – at least publicly – that he wasn’t available. “We’ve been adamant with teams that we want to hang on to Gray,” executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane said in January. Prior to that comment, general manager David Forst stated in November that the A’s weren’t going to move Gray, saying, “As soon as you trade a young, healthy really good pitcher, you’re looking for another one.” Still, after back-to-back full seasons of ace-like production, four years of control over Gray, 26, would’ve landed Oakland a sizable haul. Gray is now in the midst of the worst year of his young career, having compiled a 6.19 ERA, 7.69 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 in 48 innings, and the club placed him on the DL earlier today with a strained right trapezius. Given the weakness of the upcoming offseason’s free agent pitching market, teams would’ve kept hounding the A’s about Gray had he continued his effectiveness and stayed healthy this year. Neither of those things has happened, though, which decreases the already dubious odds of the A’s parting with Gray before the deadline.
Braves
Erick Aybar: When the rebuilding Braves acquired Aybar from the Angels as part of the Andrelton Simmons package, their hope was that he’d serve as a sturdy shortstop bridge between Simmons’ reign and the Dansby Swanson/Ozzie Albies era. Aybar has instead been the worst player on arguably the majors’ worst team, having hit .175/.216/.204 in 151 trips to the plate. The 32-year-old’s 7 wRC+ is easily last among qualifying hitters (his closest company is at 43), as is his minus-1.6 fWAR. The Braves had a high asking price on Aybar as of March, but they’ll have difficulty finding anyone willing to take the $8.5MM infielder in the last year of his contract if his play doesn’t substantially improve.
Nick Markakis: The Braves reportedly had opportunities to trade Markakis last winter and in 2015, but they elected to retain the right fielder instead. Considering that Markakis is on a $10.5MM annual salary from now until the end of 2018, Atlanta might regret not dealing the 32-year-old. Since joining the Braves last season, the power Markakis showed in Baltimore from 2006-14 has disappeared. In 871 PAs with the Braves, Markakis has totaled just four home runs – two fewer than Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner, who has amassed 765 fewer PAs – and logged the majors’ fifth-worst ISO (.083). To Markakis’ credit, he has managed to produce a decent 105 wRC+ with the Braves and has gotten on base at an impressive 36.9 percent clip, but an aging, well-compensated, power-devoid corner outfielder who doesn’t grade well defensively simply doesn’t have much value.
Padres
Andrew Cashner: A report in December stated that the A.J. Preller-run Padres were pushing to move Cashner prior to his contract year, in which he’s making $7.15MM. However, the team was unwilling to deal the right-hander for then-Diamondbacks center fielder Ender Inciarte, Arizona GM Dave Stewart said. Even though Inciarte has struggled this year in Atlanta (he’s hardly alone), acquiring five years of control over him for one season of Cashner would’ve been a boon for the Padres. Instead, Cashner stayed in San Diego and has begun 2016 with 34 2/3 innings of 4.93 ERA/4.42 FIP/4.61 xFIP ball. The injury-prone Cashner – who’s on the DL with a minor hamstring issue – was better last season in posting a 4.34 ERA/3.85 FIP/3.84 xFIP, but he hasn’t been particularly effective at preventing runs since 2012-13 (3.33 ERA in 221 1/3 frames). Cashner’s trade value isn’t dead, but barring a turnaround after he comes back from the DL, odds are the Padres will have a tough time netting a return as enticing as the one they could’ve gotten for him over the winter. If the Padres aren’t satisfied with the offers they receive for Cashner this summer, they could keep the 29-year-old and extend him a qualifying offer after the season. The risk there would be that Cashner would actually accept the $15.8MM offer, as multiple players did last offseason. That would force the Padres to continue with Cashner at a salary worth more than double what he’s making now. Worse, the rebuilding club wouldn’t receive a first-round pick for him as compensation.
Matt Kemp: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported at the outset of this month that Kemp’s productive April had improved his trade value, but the right fielder has canceled that out with a .169/.173/.312 line in 81 May PAs. Long a below-average defensive outfielder, Kemp’s value throughout his career has been tied to his bat. Kemp’s offensive output has fallen off in recent years, however, and his value has cratered as a result. Since compiling a 3.2-fWAR campaign in 2012, the 31-year-old has been worth a combined 1.2 fWAR while hitting an unspectacular .270/.319/.459 in 1,714 PAs. It’s nice that Kemp continues to show power – he has already accumulated 10 home runs this season after smacking 20-plus in each of the two previous campaigns – but his walk rate (2.3 percent) is alarming and far worse than his career mark of 7.6 percent. Further, the two-time All-Star is being paid commensurate to the MVP candidate he once was. Kemp will collect $21.5MM per annum through 2019, and the Padres were reportedly hesitant to eat a lot of money to deal him over the winter. Now, as an over-30, defensively challenged player who has clearly seen better days at the plate, it appears the Padres could be stuck with Kemp.
Tyson Ross: Unlike Cashner, the right-handed Ross has been consistently superb at preventing runs. Since 2013, his first season as a Padre, Ross has pitched to a stingy 3.13 ERA over 522 innings while averaging more than a strikeout per frame. Unfortunately, the slider-heavy Ross hasn’t pitched since Opening Day because of a shoulder injury. The 29-year-old still hasn’t resumed throwing, which means his return isn’t approaching. Even if Ross were to come back close to the deadline, it’s hard to believe the Padres would trade him. They’d probably be better off hoping Ross – who’s making $9.63MM this year and will make one more trip through arbitration – rebuilds his value either through the end of the season or by the 2017 deadline. San Diego understandably wanted a large return for Ross last winter, but his shoulder troubles have likely killed the chances of that happening in the next couple months.
I’m having trouble wrapping my head around the idea that the Padres did not pull the trigger on Cashner for Enciarte. It had to have been Cashner plus other pieces and the Padres balked at the “other pieces”. Anybody agree?
Yes i agree theres no way stewart is so dumb as to trade five yrs of a good cf for one yr of an inconsistent starter. Although he did do the shelby miller trade
Stewart certainly is that dumb.
The Shelby Miller trade was way worse than that proposed trade.
Anyone who’s in love with Enciarte will be able to have him after he’s non-tendered by whatever team acquires him as a late inning defensive guy at the trade deadline in 2018.
Matt Kemp is hitting 231/243(!)/462. Zero defensive value and zero baserunning value. Only about 75 million dollars more the Padres owe him. Sigh. I hated the trade when it happened and I hate it even more now. A right-fielder with a 243 OBP is basically as useless a player as one can imagine.
To be fair though he has absolutely no protection in that lineup and they basically count on him and Wil Myers to produce all of their offense because they don’t get it from anywhere else. That’s a lot of pressure.
Bj upton and brett Wallace have been above average, jon jay and will Myers have been average. Kemp just isn’t that good anymore. Even if he did hit a ton, his defense is so bad it takes all that value away. Was a dumb trade, always was.
Yeah his defense is really bad and he’s not worth the money he’s being paid. But he got off to a slow start last season and still ended up driving in over 100 runs so it’s entirely possible that he gets hot soon and the Padres can find a suitor for a trade while eating some money. I think he already has 10 HRs so far this season so he does have some offensive value
Matt Kemp has a wRC+ or 89, so he does not really have some offensive value. He also was worth .4 fWAR last season, even with his 100 rbis (which are a horrible stat). He’s worth almost nothing production wise and has a massive contract. He’s a rather large negative in a trade.
Yeah, even with those 100 RBIs (in 650 Plate Appearances) he was worth less than a win last season. RBIs aren’t a skill; give BJ Upton 650 PAs in the cleanup spot and he’ll drive in a hundred runs too.
No, he won’t.
I would disagree that driving in runs isn’t a skill. Are RBIs partially a result of spot in the lineup and some luck? Of course. But I’d take Matt Kemp in the cleanup spot over someone like Erick Aybar or Nick Markakis in the cleanup spot (just using them as an example since they were mentioned in this article). Guys who can do more than just slap the ball around and can actually drive the occasional ball into a gap or hit a homerun will finish with more RBIs than guys who can’t if you gave them the same lineup.
So then use a better stat to see that, like slugging, WPA, or really anything else.
RBI’s are simply a counting stat produced by circumstance, not skill
But facts don’t match your assertion. There are plenty of 100 RBI seasons from guys without power. RBIs are a function of sequencing, not skill. Ryan Howard was still driving in runs long after he was a useful ballplayer. Aybar and Markakis aren’t great examples, since they are both bad players. Here’s a few examples: Paul Molitor once drove in 113 runs with 9 homers. Tom Herr drove in 110 runs with 8 homers. Tony Gwynn drove in 119 runs with 17 homers. Jeff Cirillo drove in 115 with 11 homers. Willie McGee drove in 105 with 11 homers. If you have a decent enough lineup any player who gets a lot of at-bats in the middle of the llneup will get RBIs. It’s just not a stat that gives you very much information.
Amusingly, the one thing he’s actually improved significantly this year is his defense in right. Tarrik Brock probably deserves a lifetime job for helping him improve his first step so much. Still an adventure and still takes weird routes, and I still hold my breath every time the ball’s hit that way, but he’s only below average this year, not historically awful.
I keep thinking that someday w/in the next 3-4 weeks Nick Markakis will be w/ the White Sox. Very affordable for the Sox, LH OF to help balance lineup. He wouldn’t be asked to hit HR w the Sox, just get on base any way he can hitting out of the 2 hole — solid p/up IMHO. 1) Eaton RF, 2) Markakis LF, 3) Abreu 1B, 4) Fraizer 3B, 5) Cabrera DH, 6) Lawrie 2B, 7) Navarro/Avila C, 8) Jackson CF, 9) Rollins/Saladino SS
Nope, Garcia has been equal to markakis. Markakis is still owed a bundle of money. Since he isn’t an upgrade and costs a lot more money there is no reason for it. If anything a better cf or someone like cargo that’s an actual upgrade.
I think you add Markakis to Avi Garcia – platoon w Markakis vs RHP and Avi vs LHP.
A team isn’t taking on a guy with that much salary to be part of a platoon. You would hope that he can win the job outright. If Markakis continued hitting bad (and Garcia had/has bad numbers against righties) then sure you’d consider platooning them. But again, a team isn’t taking on big salary with the intention of him being a platoon guy. Its partially why Ryan Howard has generated no interest the past year or so.
That’s not really fair to Markakis. Howard is making more than twice as much and gets on base less than half the time
I was a big advocate for trading Ross over the winter. I hate to think of what they could have received in talent coming back. Instead the Pads are banking on guys like Blash.
They should trade pomeranz immediately.
Blash is no higher than 6th on their OF depth chart for 2017.
Orioles should make a ploy for markakis again
Orioles need pitching, not more offense.
Sonny Gray isn’t a trade candidate! Why would the A’s wanna trade a pitcher of his caliber who can’t even see free agency with a telescope?
Arbitration eligible next year. In line for about 7 million. If they get mlb ready talent 3 rookies=1.5 mil allowing them to use that 5.5 mil to fill other holes. If a team like the cardinals want him, and they offer Alex reyes, luke weaver and Harrison bader they probably have to listen. Reyes can be a sonny gray, luke weaver has solid mid rotation upside, and baders bat might be ready next year. That 5.5 mil should cover most arb raises, coco, reddick, hill off the books allows them to have 20 mil to spend in free agency.
Dude, $7m is NOTHING for rich MLB owners. And do you know why Gray is going to get that on his first trip through arbitration? Because he’s WORTH IT. Trading him makes no sense for the A’s.
Reyes COULD be a Sonny Gray in the future. Gray IS a Sonny Gray now.
That $20m in free agency isn’t going to help them much when you consider how much free agents are getting these days. They need all the cheap talent (Sonny Gray) that they can get.
Sorry bro, but trading Gray makes about as much sense for the A’s as trading Bogaerts does for the Red Sox.
$7 million is nothing to MLB owners…unless your the Tampa Bay Rays or Oakland Athletic’s owners. They trade away almost everyone (especially the A’s) once they start to get expensive.
Dude, have you watched the way the A’s operate for the last….15 years?
With Gray trade value down trading him would be a very bad decision. No need to panic because they are rebuilding this year. He is worth more to the A’s than what he will get back in trades at this time. The A’s have no wage problems since there is only 1 player to make over $10 million next year.
@theo3016 No way the A’s would take that trade. I agree they should trade him, but probably to a team like the Rangers. For a return in the range of Gallo and Ortiz. On a good team, Gray is a 20-win type of guy. In all truthfulness, the A’s are doing him a major disservice by keeping him.
Gallo and Ortiz is not what the A’s need for the future. The A’s have a great prospect at third in Chapman and a top prospect in OIlson at 1b. The A’s have a minor league full of corner infielders. They would want starters and outfielders back in trades where they are weak in the minors.
LOL at Matt Olson, top prospect.
No, he isn’t a trade candidate in the sense that he’s absolutely available like the other players on here.
However, I think most just assume if the right offer is made sonny is available.
The A’s are currently one of the bottom teams in the league after finishing last last season. Arguably two of their top 3 players (Reddick and Hill) may be free agents after the season. They don’t particularly have the fins kcal reassures nor the stacked farm system to be competitive next season without have a ton of break out performances.
Gray is arg eligible next season. The a’s generally like to trade. The market for pitchers is thin. If bean gets the right offer, and i say right offer, he should at least think about trading gray, making him a possible trade chip
So what if they are rebuilding? Gray is under control for 3 more years after this season is over! It is very likely that the A’s will be contending at some point during those 3 years.
I doubt the Diamondbacks were willing to do Cashner for Inciarte straight up. That trade makes no sense for them. It probably included some other pieces going to Arizona.
I do not see any situation in which Andrew Cashner is worth a qualifying offer.
See trade Miller, Shelby.
In that case Preller is even dumber than Stewart for not taking that offer.
Not true, Dave Stewart might go down as the dumbest GM in baseball history. He’s coming for you Frank Wren, he’s coming!
Ian Kennedy got a q.o. on a strong market, obviously cashner gets one in a weak market, there’s like rich hill ahead of him and that’s it.
If he opts out, fellow Padre James Shields would be way ahead of both of them.
I still don’t know how Kennedy managed to get $70m from the defending champs when he cost a draft pick.
Would James Shields qualify for a Q.O. if he opts out? If he would then I could see a Q.O. being a little more questionable for Cashner but if not, then the Q.O. would probably be likely.
Yes, Shields would qualify for a QO if he opts out and yes, he will get one if he isn’t traded and opts out.
Whether or not Shields gets a QO has no bearing on whether or not Cashner gets one.
While you’re right about Shields Q.O. having no effect on Cashner now that I think about it, I wouldn’t be too sure that Cashner gets one. Even if he is one of the better free agent starting pitchers available, its still a weak class. Its a risk for the Padres because he could just take the Q.O. and whatever the Q.O. is valued at this year might be deemed too expensive for Cashner.
Yeah, the QO is likely to be north of $16m this season and with draft pick compensation attached, Cashner would be very lucky to get that much money even on a 2-year deal if he keeps pitching the way he has been pitching lately. So really the best thing to do is trade him to the highest bidder at the deadline.
I love the SABR geeks. Batting average is useless, RBIs are worth less than nothing, BA w/RISP is a joke. No, using terms such as fWAR, xFIP and wRC+ are the horrible stats. We have a guy on this thread that claimed BJ Upton – who has never even sniffed 100 RBI – would drive in 100 if given the right position in the batting order. Lol. You can’t make this stuff up! But, what do you expect from guys that have only probably played competitive baseball on their Play Station 4. Hahahahaha. Nice head.
AMEN! Only way that the “nerds” can make their way into the game. Reinvent the WHEEL
You should try talking to people who are actually employed in the game. But you’ll probably want to ask them to use small words and speak slowly so you can keep up.
Like you talk anyone that’s employed in the game. If you think RBI’s, Avg are useless stats, then I already know I’m SMARTER than you. You
Melvin Upton has never batted in the middle of a lineup for a full season. I’d wager he would get there – Kemp got to 100 RBIs last year and he was an awful hitter on an awful team. Upton is having a much better year this year than Kemp did last year or this year. And who says you have to play competitive baseball to understand it? That’s absurd. I played up through high school, never played a video game in my life, but I can understand how to measure a player’s value using something more worthwhile than RBIs or pitcher wins or batting average. You do know that every baseball front office disagrees with your contention, by the way – they all have analytics departments. It’s not 1950 anymore.
And as for batting with RISP, Kemp in 2015 hit 270/310/412. That’s nothing special.