5:38pm: Miami has reached out to the Halos on Santiago and other, unspecified starters, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter).
3:25pm: The Angels have received inquiries from a number of teams about left-hander Hector Santiago, and they’re willing to listen to offers for him, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). The team is also getting hits on Matt Shoemaker, perhaps unsurprisingly, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
Los Angeles is said to be amenable at least to considering scenarios involving the two controllable starters, but only if it would improve the team’s roster right now or in the “near future.” That near-term focus is precisely why it’s hard to see a match coming together, particularly for Shoemaker.
Santiago, 28, is earning $5MM this season and is controlled through the 2017 campaign via arbitration, so he’s more appealing than a number of arms that are of similar quality but either hit free agency at season’s end or are making considerably more money. The lefty is in the midst of his weakest season at the Major League level but still owns a respectable 4.32 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a career-best 38.7 percent ground-ball rate. His 91.8 mph average fastball is a notable step up over last season’s average of 90.3 mph and represents the highest mark he’s ever posted in a full season out of the rotation.
Metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA feel that Santiago’s been fortunate to keep his ERA where it is this season, but Santiago has long outperformed those metrics. As a fly-ball pitcher that generates a large number of pop-ups, Santiago has been able to routinely post BABIP marks that are considerably lower than the league average (having Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun in the outfield doesn’t hurt), and he’s also proven to be adept at stranding runners; his 76.6 percent left-on-base percentage is 14th in the Majors over the past five years among starters with at least 500 innings pitched. Those factors have contributed heavily to the career 3.78 ERA Santiago has been able to post out of the rotation in spite of ERA estimators that project his earned run average to check in somewhere in the vicinity of a full run higher.
Crasnick lists the Orioles, Pirates and “possibly” the Astros and Mets as speculative fits for Santiago after speaking to a pair of big league executives (links to Twitter). Those two execs also listed Miami as a possible fit, but Crasnick adds that the Marlins, who are known to be looking for a stabilizing force near the back of the rotation, are currently “aiming their sights higher” than Santiago. Considering their desire for a large quantity of innings down the stretch, perhaps that’s not surprising; Santiago’s career-high in innings pitched was last year’s 180 2/3 frames, but he averaged a lesser 152 innings from 2013-15 due to some time spent in the bullpen in 2013 and 2014.
The Orioles have long been tied to a left-handed rotation upgrade, and Santiago would be an improvement over many of the names that Baltimore has trotted out to the mound this season. Santiago wouldn’t fit the Pirates’ mold of pursuing pitchers with high ground-ball rates, but he’d give them a capable arm for the back of the rotation that could take some of the pressure of their bounty of young starters that could be leaned upon heavily over the final months (e.g. Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault). The Astros have a short porch in left field which could spell problems for a fly-ball prone lefty, while the Mets reportedly continue to prioritize bullpen help. However, given the uncertainty that currently exists in their starting ranks, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see them jump into the market for a starter over the next week as the non-waiver deadline approaches.
I wouldn’t trade Santiago unless someone sends an overwhelming offer. With 4 starters in the DL theres no more depth in the rotation. Who would the Angels insert to take over Santiagos spot?
They are in last place with him. Bring up Nate Smith for a few starts or replace him with journeyman Kyle Kendrick. Get some prospects for next season
They are in last place with him. Bring up Nate Smith for a few starts, or journeyman Kyle Kendrick. Get some prospects for next season.
we aren’t competing this year so get the beast haul possible for him. Skaggs just returned and we can also plug chacin in the starter role again
If the Halos can get a young outfielder for Santiago. I’m all in on that. The thing you guys aren’t realizing is that Santiago gives the Halos depth in the rotation which we saw this year was much needed and it can come through again next year. Angels aren’t winning with him because Richards, Heaney, Nitro are down along with Skaggs who just came back. If they were in the rotation Angels would be contending and Santiago would be a great depth piece.
Did April/May not happen this year? We had GRich and Heaney in the rotation and we still couldn’t win games. Even healthy, the Angels are a. 500 team at best.
You are kidding right? Heaney pitched one game and Richards had 6 in which he was doing a great job.
Sorry meant Tropeano. Either way my point still stands. This team isn’t nearly as good as the fans think, even when healthy. The Rangers have had every starter not named Hamels hit the DL this year and they still have that 12 game lead. The Astros, lol I won’t even start with them and their seemingly unending wave of prospects hitting the majors. Not to mention everytime they play us now it’s a basically a guaranteed win for them.
This team is a contender if healthy. Heres the thing. Angels aren’t healthy so we don’t know what we have yet. A rotation of Richards, Skaggs, Shoe, NiTro and Santiago can be a very good one. The offense is set, its top 10 in the league and could get better with a LF starter and another bat such as Trumbo coming back. The pen needs help but can be fixed by adding Chapman, Jansen or Melancon or other pieces the pen market is a good one this offseason. Angels are better off waiting until next season, seeing what we have when everyone is healthy and then move from there. Theres no point to trade these guys now since we have yet to see what the team can do and since Richards, Skaggs, NiTro can also net us some good prospects when healthy. The only players that should be traded are Joe Smith and Salas since its there contract year.
How much extra money in cap space do the Angels have?? They are going to re-sign Trumbo and the go get Chapman or Jansen?? What contracts are gone next year?
Their offense and the resurgence of Shoemaker disagrees with you. The only thing that would still be an issue is Smith and Street. If their rotation was healthy they’d be in a great position to plug holes by dealing that depth for a left fielder and relievers.
An overwhelming offer for Hector Santiago?!
His ERA has been hugely misleading as in the past two seasons he has posted nearly a FIP of 5.00 which is subpar
No team will surrender top prospects for him, not even close. He is fringe #4 or 5th starter at best material on a good team
I’m not saying top prospect but it will take something like Perez/NiTro for Conger not just a 1 on 1. At that point Halos are better off holding onto Santiago for depth.
This is where FIP is hugely misleading. His true talent lies closer to his ERA totals. FIP massively underrates extreme flyball pitchers. Conversely, it overrates extreme groundball pitchers.
FIP is a great metric but it needs to be used appropriately. The bias in the calculation is well documented and understood. Guys like Santiago (and Weaver in his prime) always had their value distorted by fWAR thanks to this issue.
Now, Santiago is clearly not having the best year. However, he has a great track record and is cheap for the remainder of this year and next year. He probably won’t net what Pomaranz did (due to the extra year of control) but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was spun for a prospect ranked in the 50-75 tier.
He’s not getting us Aaron Judge or anyone of that caliber. Maybe a couple lower level arms/bats who in a year or two make it to the top 50-75 level but nobody that’s there today.
It’s past time to admit that this team cannot compete in 2016 or 2017. With the worst farm system in the game, they’ve got to start somewhere and they’ve got to start yesterday.
The only players that would actually be capable of rebuilding the farm are Calhoun, Trout, Pujols, Shoemaker, Simmons.
I’m okay with trading everyone there except Trout. The MLB is top heavy and the guys we have aren’t good enough to play with the big boys.
I wouldn’t trade any of them. Its going to take until 2020 for the Angels to contend if they fire sell and if they fire sell may as well trade Trout to. This team can contend if Rich,NiTro, Heaney and Skaggs are in the rotation. A lot of money is coming off the books. Angels can sign some big pen arms such as Kenley, Melancon or Chapman, bring back Trumbo to DH/LF/1B and fill LF with an actual starter and this team can very well do damage in 2017. 2018 has a huge free agent class and Angels have Hamiltons contract coming off the books and one guy like Machado can help the Halos out a ton.
At this point see how much a sell of minus Trout would bring back. If not there yet, then you seriously consider trading him.
The answer to an awful farm system isn’t trading Trout. You can’t trade your way into a top 10 farm system.
The answer is better drafting and development. Reagins firing head scout Eddie Bane in 2010 was a huge error. But we can’t undo that.
Ric Wilson hasn’t had a real good record, even grading him on a curve with the lack of first round picks. Would like to see Eppler shake up the amateur scouting staff before next year.
the Indians have been doing that for a long time
You cannot trade your way into a top farm? Braves traded Heyward (in turn traded Miller for Swanson), Gattis, Kimbrel (in part trading a bad contract), Simmons, and J-Up. Braves now have top 3, if not the top farm on baseball, up from bottom 5.
I am not saying trade Trout first, even Braves have held onto Freeman and Julio.
You can do it the Braves way, but that is not the ONLY way to do it. Just a few years ago, the Yankees farm system was very bare. They signed a bunch of international prospects to replenish. The Cubs did that as their rebuild was starting too. The Angels have money and can just blow up the international market next year.
Yeah well you know, we can keep everyone we have and not contend at all, Rich, Nitro, and Heaney are all coming off TJ so there’s no guarantees they all comeback healthy or as strong as they were. Even when those guys were healthy they still weren’t good enough to put us over. Arte Moreno isn’t willing to spend the amount of money it would take to make this team good enough to beat the Rangers so do you really think he spends enough for us to beat the Cubs? The Red Sox? How about the Giants? Or even the Dodgers?
Angelsfan31… outspending is not the only option to beat bigger markets than us. Look at last years World Series winner. Kansas City, bigger market than the teams you listed? no.
They have a lot of control over their players, and have the money to keep them, and that’s why they’re always in a position to both contend and rebuild at the same time. The Angels should just stay the course and buy time for their system to develop.
The Royals actually won that World Series because of the amount of value they got from cheap veterans that bridged the gap between their young core and the last roster spot. Right now the Cubs are where they are because of their veteran starting rotation. Without that, they’d be just like the Angels in the late 1990’s.
Having a thin farm system does not guarantee non contention any more than a good farm system guarantees contention. The whole “two years away” or “won’t contend next year” thing doesn’t really exist in baseball. Teams rise and fall every year in this game. The whole thing is a crap shoot when even Mike Trout can only account for 10 wins out of a 95 win season if his team wins that much.
I wonder if this is someone the Indians will pursue considering we couldn’t pull the trigger on Chapman (no surprise there)
The Pirates have 2 Santiagos in Locke and Niese. No way they go after this guy.
Orioles?
O’s have to get a SP but have little on the farm of value.
As a Marlins fan I’m wondering who exactly are they aiming higher for? Because hellickson and cashner are just a tad freaking terrible
Hector Santiago was an all star last year.
Last year angel fans were still under the delusion that they had a winning ball club, which they clearly do not….. you have to be realistic about what you have to trade, and they’re realistic value, I guarantee you no one cares that he was an all star last year
You mean the team that missed the playoffs on the last day of the season?
Umm they missed the playoffs by one game.
I’ve been saying this since the team went downhill. trade Santiago and use someone like Nate smith or chacin to eat innings. people think we can’t afford to trade him because of the injuries but if we’re not winning with him, what’s the difference of him or chacin/smith?
What can we actually get for Santiago though? I doubt we get a player as good or better than Santiago. We most likely get a prospect that will be in the minors for his whole career. At least Santiago is capable of pitching in the show. So No deal.
no we can get a decent prospect for him. If we couldn’t I don’t think eppler would trade him so I think he’s listening for a good offer and if he gets one, why not take it
How about some controllable relievers? A big reason they’re in last place is an overworked and injured bullpen.
Santiago for Christian Yelich. get er done. jk btw obviously won’t be happening. Miami most likely would give us crap which isn’t worth it for the Halos to do.
There’s some good minor leaguers Marlins have. Underrated farm system tbh
Not knowing MIA’s farm well, isn’t there a major drop after Kolek/Naylor in terms of upside?
No people just don’t value them much. Most of the Marlins players were never a top prospect but yet they’re doing great
On Santiago, all depends… We have to wait and see how Skaggs does on his first outing in the Majors… If he gets rocked and/or re-injured … I would be surprised if Santiago is traded …
Street, Smith and Santiago for Ozuna!
Santiago and Shoe for prospects and one major league inning eating pitcher. Need to rebuild the farm somehow. Joe Smith has zero value now. Trade Escobar too. It’s a lost season. Need some bodies in the minors.