This year’s NLCS between the Cubs and Dodgers is underway, and electrifying closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen figure to be among the series’ most important players. That was already the case for the two teams in the NLDS, when Chapman saved all three of the Cubs’ wins over the Giants – including two one-run affairs – and blew a save in Chicago’s only loss. Jansen had an ugly Game 2 showing against the Nationals, but he was otherwise tremendous, racking up saves in a pair of one-run contests before his all-important hold in a memorable Game 5. Jansen entered in the seventh inning Thursday and tossed 2 1/3 frames of 51-pitch, one-hit ball to preserve a 4-3 lead, which ace Clayton Kershaw closed out by retiring back-to-back hitters in the ninth.
One of Chapman or Jansen could very well secure the final out of this year’s World Series, after which the late-game aces are scheduled to become free agents. Given both their dominance and the ever-increasing importance of bullpens, Chapman and Jansen are in line to score the most valuable contracts ever awarded to relievers. The four-year, $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies in 2011 is the record, but that deal’s days at the top are numbered. Now it’s a matter of figuring out whether Chapman or Jansen will land the richer pact.
The two will play their age-29 seasons in 2017, and their results have been similarly excellent since they debuted in 2011. In 377 combined innings with the Reds, Yankees and Cubs, Chapman has a 2.08 ERA, 15.18 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 42.3 percent ground-ball rate, 12.8 infield pop-up percentage and 17.7 percent swinging strike mark. Across 408 2/3 frames with the Dodgers, Jansen has posted a 2.20 ERA, 13.92 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 with a worse ground-ball and swinging strike percentages than Chapman (33.4 and 15.7), though he does have the superior infield fly rate (13.8). In terms of their ability to finish games, Chapman has a nearly 90 percent success rate (182 saves in 203 chances), while Jansen has converted more than 88 percent of his save chances (189 of 214).
There aren’t notable differences in their age or career outputs, though Chapman and Jansen do diverge in certain areas. Chapman is a left-hander and Jansen a righty, for starters. With the ability to occasionally hit 105 mph on the radar gun, Chapman is the hardest thrower in baseball, but Jansen can offer a lethal 98 mph cutter. Also of importance, there are no off-the-field red flags with Jansen. That isn’t true in Chapman’s case
Chapman was on track last offseason to join Jansen in the Dodgers’ bullpen, but a trade between them and the Reds fell through amid domestic violence claims. Chapman was alleged to have struck his girlfriend and discharged a firearm while alone in his garage last October. Criminal charges were never filed, so Chapman did not face a trial. Nevertheless, the league did suspend him for the first month of the season, and it’s conceivable that such a serious incident could damage Chapman’s earning power as a free agent. On the other hand, contenders lined up to acquire Chapman from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline, and the Cubs eventually surrendered one of baseball’s top prospects – shortstop Gleyber Torres – in a package for him.
The fact that Chapman switched teams during the season means he’ll be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, which will only boost his stock. The Dodgers will surely tender a QO to Jansen, meaning another club that signs him would have to give up a first-round pick in addition to the enormous contract it awards him. With other high-payroll teams like the Yankees, Giants and Nationals perhaps set to accompany the big-spending Cubs and Dodgers in the sweepstakes for Chapman and Jansen, they’re clearly going to earn sizable raises during the offseason. But which one will fare better on the open market?
(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)
Cubs get both?
Wouldn’t surprise me. Theo seems to have a Steinbrenner “I’ll buy a title or two if I have to” mentality.
You have the Cubs confused with Detroit or S.F.
Such a dumb statement on so many levels.
Ok gomer why do you not explain how he is buying it moron
Jerk off
I’d be happy with either, Chapman slightly better, Jansen slightly cheaper and without off the field issues.
Can we have a link for mobile viewers? Thanks.
Added. Thanks.
Chapman’s high velocity will help him greatly should it come down when he ages. It could go down a couple MPH and he will still be the hardest thrower in the league. That and no QO, I say it’s a done deal for Chapman to get the 4-5 year mega deal and beats Jensen in dollars, if not years too.
if he looses a couple MPH then Mauricio Cabrera may catch him, as i believe he averaged right at an even 100 MPH this year
Chapman can throw 103.
105
Both are great closers, but I think Chapman not having a qualifying offer tagged to him helps him immensely.
One of these guys didn’t choke his girlfriend, then fire eight shots into his garage wall in a residential neighborhood with kids.
I’ll take the guy who didn’t do that stuff
This question is NOT about which closer do you prefer on your team. Nor is it about who is a better role model. The question is who will land a bigger contract: Chapman or Jansen? And the majority (myself included) picked Chapman for one obvious reason: he will not have QO attached to him.
Found the wife beater
Too bad he’s Not married
Yeah….could have been more tactful about refocusing the conversation. Or you could have understood that the poll was about who gets the most money and the comments section is for comments.
Oh. Okay then. I’ll try again. I think Jansen should and will get more money. Because he didn’t choke his girlfriend and then fire 8 rounds into his garage in a residential neighborhood
Baseball isn’t about who do you like better, it’s about winning. Chapman throws 102-105 Jansen does not, chapman is lefty, Janson is not. Teams are always looking for lefty relievers, and chapman bus happens to be one of the best in the game.
Not so… or Barry Bonds would have played another few years.
43 year olds tend to drop off.
His last year was 276/480/565. At any age he should have been offered a contract if it was strictly a baseball decision.
Milton Bradley and Elijah Dukes and Josh Lueke were good too. Ray Rice was one of the best running backs in football.
Two Premier Closers; almost splitting hairs. Chapman’s numbers are slightly better and one could argue they are against a little stiffer competition. Both have clean arm action and have the ability to get more than three outs. Jansen looks to have a soft body but seems to handle his weight well. I would lean towards Chapman but you couldn’t go wrong with either player.
Jansen has a 1.93 FIP over 408 IP
Chapman has a 1.88 FIP over 377 IP
They’re basically the same age, Chapman has makeup issues, Jansen does not. Chapman has slightly more K’s – they should get the same deal, honestly. But for not many decent reasons, Chapman probably will get more money.
Chapman- no QO.
As people state above, QO is what pushes chapman over edge. He can’t get issued one which means practically any team will be interested. Jansen, on the other hand, will be limited to teams that aren’t rebuilding.
I can’t see which rebuilding team would go after any of these guys anyways, and it has nothing to do with the QO.
Chapman to me with the QO is just better and should get more money
Can’t go wrong with either one, really. I give the edge to Chapman from a fan perspective as it’s highly entertaining to watch the radar gun light up.
The lack of the QO expands Chapman’s market greatly, plus he’s left handed, so I think he will definitely get the better contract this off season.
I think the Yankees will do whatever they can to bring him back, there is not much else on the FA market for them to spend on so they can overspend here by a few dollars. Before trading Miller they were on the hook with him for two more seasons at $9MM per season which can be reallocated towards Chapman. Plus they know Chapman can perform in NY and it appeared he liked being on the Yankees. It might take 5 years $75 million to sign him, but so it goes. . .
A lot of teams need a dominant left-handed pitcher out of the bullpen and Aroldis Chapman throws fire
Who is better? Chapman. Who will age better and be better in their later years? Jansen
I’m still not entirely sure I trust Kenley. His save percentage doesn’t quite line up with his outstanding peripherals. In one run games he makes me nervous.
With that said, I’d still like to have him back. But I wonder if the Dodgers wouldn’t be better served signing chapman and taking the pick for losing Jansen. It might be their best value play.
It is there best play and it sounds like something the Dodgers will do if Cubs don’t resign him.
C) Andrew Miller
He’s not a free agent for 2 more years…
And to those who thought that Chapman would be upset at the Yankees for trading him and refuse to sign with them in the offseason. If anything, I bet he’s glad they traded him because that makes him ineligible to receive a QO. It looks like not having the QO attached to him is going to REALLY help his stock.
The players are very similar with the big difference being the QO and to a lesser degree off the field concerns. I’m interested to see how much the QO ends up costing Jansen.
Blah blah blah
Blah blah blah
Bottom line if the CIN v LAD trade for Chapman had gone through, Chapman was going to be the LAD closer. So that’s the end of that Chapman is also better in majority of his stats and he has no QO.
Jansen is a poor man’s Chapman
Bottom line is the Giants are going to throw an obscene amount of money at both of them.
Teams Beware of Chapman, hes going to blow out his arm sooner than later!
I could see the Cardinals going after Jansen. Package a trade around Rosenthal and Weaver to get a Pollock or Blackmon. Have Oh as the set up man and Jansen as the closer.
Chapman, Jansen, and Melancon go to Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Giants,or Nats These guys are getting big money from big market teams.
Jansen is way more reliable to me than chapman his k’s and velocity may not be as good but still more consistent
The two are not even close. Chapman is a once in a generation closer.
Really? Not even close you say? Once in a generation closer? Seriously just how much heroine are you doing to post such an idiotic comment? There stats are nearly identical. Chapman has been pitching his entire career while Jansen is a converted catcher and has only been pitching since the end of 2009 and made to the bigs by July of 2010. I don’t think we have even seen the best season out of him yet. He has only been closing regularly since 2012. I think chapman will get the bigger contract this offseason but it is Jansen who will have the longer and better career
The Cards have Oh. No need to be in this market when they need to focus on a superstar everyday player to challenge the Cubs. Molina only has a couple more years. They need not to waste them. Trout, Double E in Toronto are what they need
You can have Double E because the guy is just not a good first baseman and no DH in the national league thank the gods. He will stay in the AL along with Joey bats for that reason