With an action-packed December on the verge of ending (happy holidays, MLBTR fans!), the most entertaining moments of Major League Baseball’s Hot Stove season have likely passed. As evidenced by what’s left of a free agent class that was uninspiring from the outset, the majority of this winter’s top available players have already found new homes. On the trade front, it’s possible we won’t see any more blockbusters, though this month’s Winter Meetings certainly brought a couple memorable ones that will hugely impact the involved franchises for years to come.
Of all the transactions that have taken place in December, there are a few which arguably stand out as head-scratchers. We’ll touch on a trio of those moves below and ask the readers to share their opinions via the poll and comments section:
Nationals send a prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton: Both sides made out well in this trade from my vantage point, but the Nationals have drawn criticism for surrendering two of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects, right-handers Lucas Giolito (No. 3) and Reynaldo Lopez (No. 38), and 2016 first-round righty Dane Dunning to acquire Eaton. After making the deal at the Winter Meetings, Nationals president and general manager Mike Rizzo told predecessor Jim Bowden (now of ESPN and Sirius XM) that he was “getting barbecued.” Bowden is one of Rizzo’s most outspoken critics in this case, as he regards it as the “worst trade” he has ever seen (via Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post).
If you’re to believe wins above replacement, the well-rounded Eaton has been among the majors’ most valuable outfielders during his three full major league seasons, having combined for 12.8 fWAR and 15.3 rWAR in 1,933 plate appearances dating back to 2014. The 28-year-old also possesses one of the sport’s most team-friendly contracts for an established player, which made it all the more reasonable for rebuilding Chicago to demand a ransom in return. Eaton is controllable for the next five seasons, including club options in 2020 and ’21, at a maximum value of $38MM. He and Bryce Harper should form two-thirds of an excellent outfield in D.C. for at least two seasons (Harper will be a free agent after the 2018 campaign), though the latter’s presence in right will force Eaton to center. Eaton’s coming off a season in which he was an elite defender in right with a major league-high 23.1 Ultimate Zone Rating and 22 Defensive Runs Saved (second). The metrics haven’t liked Eaton nearly as much in center (minus-21 UZR, minus-8 DRS in 3,115 career innings), which – along with the young pitchers the Nationals lost – has led to skepticism regarding Washington’s half of the trade.
Rockies spend $70MM over five years on Ian Desmond … to play first base? After receiving replacement-level production at first last year from a slew of players (mostly Mark Reynolds), Colorado entered the offseason in desperate need at the position. The Rockies also came into the winter having promised to post a franchise-record payroll in 2017, so the fact that they prioritized first and allocated big money to it wasn’t a shock. But, instead of adding one of the many first base types available, they weirdly signed Desmond. The career shortstop/outfielder will now occupy the least valuable defensive position on the field, and his bat won’t play as well there as it has at short or in center field. With Texas last season, the 31-year-old Desmond spent the vast majority of his time in center and logged a solid 106 wRC+ (league average for the position in 2016 was 96). If he’d have recorded the same production at first, where the league-average wRC+ was 108, he’d have been a much less appealing offensive cog. Nevertheless, if you’re to believe Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, Desmond will be their first baseman going forward. Considering both the money the Rockies gave Desmond and the first-round pick they lost to sign him (the eminently valuable 11th overall selection), it comes off as an odd choice.
Yankees reunite with Aroldis Chapman: It was hardly surprising that the Yankees brought back Chapman, whom they traded to the Cubs for star prospect Gleyber Torres at last summer’s deadline, or inked him to a record contract for a reliever. After all, MLBTR predicted he’d secure a five-year, $90MM accord from the Bombers, who ended up giving him an $86MM guarantee over a half-decade. The problem is twofold (and this ignores Chapman’s past domestic violence issues): 1. The Yankees are bent on getting under the luxury tax threshold soon (they’re on track to exceed it for a 15th straight year in 2017), and splurging on a reliever won’t help their cause. 2. The deal grants Chapman the ability to opt out after Year 3, which doesn’t seem to align with their window of contention. New York is amid a retooling phase and has been stockpiling youth as a result, so touted prospects like Torres, Clint Frazier and Jorge Mateo, among others, might not be ready to hit their respective strides for another few years. By then, Chapman could be in another uniform. In the meantime, and in fairness to the Yankees, the flame-throwing left-hander should continue serving as a dominant closer who helps them lock down late-game leads. But whether they’ll have enough of those leads to be a playoff team in the near future is in question.
(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)
The Yankees spent money–too much of it–but they bought one of the better bottles of wine at the store. Jansen and Melancon also signed for tremendous amounts of money. All three deals are overpays.
I do not believe in paying that kind of money on closers. Yes, it is nice to have an elite closer, but even a Kimbrel can slide backwards. The truth of the matter is, closer turnover each season due to either injury or performance is about 35%. Best to spend money else where.
Funny quote. This is someone from half a decade in the future. Kimbrel did slide backwards. The Jansen contract was so-so. He stayed the closer but had some bad periods. Definitely not worth the AAV he was paid. The Melancon contract went really bad for the Giants. They traded him away for nothing with the last year or 2 left and people were shocked the other team even ate his salary. He has bounced back though. A good year and a half with the Braves followed by an even better year as the Padres closer and now he has a new contract with Arizona. Chapman is still a good closer but I don’t like him at that price. Gleyber Torres was a disappointment.
The Eaton and Desmond contracts were definitely the worst. Desmond was terrible from the start and never got better. The Rockies gave up a chance to draft an ace to sign him. Eaton helped the Nats win a world series but has been terrible otherwise. The worst part about that trade is the Nats are terrible and they traded Giolito to get Eaton. With Giolito being a perennial Cy Young candidate now nobody wants to give up a TOR arm for a wash up like Eaton.
I like the Chapman signing personally.
I like the Chapman signing also, and I think it was the best signing of the bunch, for a couple of different reasons.
Number one, obviously he brings something no other reliever in the game brings, in 100 mph heat from the left side, and a just nasty slider. So, you pretty much know what you’re getting from Chapman, even as volatile as closers tend to be.
Number two, even if the Yankees are not in contention by the time his opt out nears, they can trade him away for some quakoty premiere talent…again!! lol
To me, it’s easily a win-win for the Yankees, regardless of the talk about their wanting to get under the LT.
He has a no trade clause this time around.
Only for years 1-3
He has better stuff than any closer in the history of baseball. Great move by the Yankees.
Jim Bowden continually makes idiotic comments. It’s hard to know if he’s saying things just to stir it up and get eyeballs, or if he really is a Muppet. If it’s the latter – no wonder he’s out of a front office job.
It’s difficult to take seriously anything Bowden says. Even if you think this was an overpay for the Nats — and there’s a good case to be made for that — this isn’t even close to “worst trade ever” territory. I can’t even see how you could reasonably claim the Eaton trade is worse than last offseason’s already-infamous trade of Shelby Miller for Inciarte, Swanson, and Blair.
Bowden was a disgrace in front office. A total low-life. Eaton trade was a big overpay but at least Eaton is a player. Desmond signing is worst move on this list. He’s a strikeout artist that can’t play defense.
If the Nationals get Alex Gordon-like production from Eaton the deal won’t look so bad. If that WAR is real then its ok
One thing to consider though, Eaton is really only a valuable player IF he can play CF at a high level…
The fact Eaton has yet to prove he can play CF at a high level for a sustained period, THAT is what makes this such a questionable move.
I would not call it the worst trade ever, by no means..That’s just absurd, because the jury is still out, and we won’t really know the outcome of this trade for another two or three seasons…
It definitely has the potential to end up becoming Rizzo’s worst trade as the Nats GM though, and maybe that’s what he is implying…or at least I certainly hope so..lol
Heck, for all we know, Giolito, Lopez, and especially Dunning very well might flame out, while Eaton proves to play a passable CF and ends up producing fairly solid numbers with the bat and running the bases…
Right now, anything is possible for this trade, IT WAS JUST MADE; therefore, it is just ridiculous to call it the worst trade ever..
I’m a Braves fan, but even I know Rizzo is usually someone that ends up getting the better end of most his deals…and typically it isn’t even close!! I will wait to pass judgment, giving Rizzo the benefit of the doubt…After all, he genuinely at least deserves that from Nats fans, baseball fans, and analysts alike.
It’s not even going to be 2-3 years, it’ll be 5-6
I don’t think that he has to be a high-quality CF to be valuable. I mean, he was an outstanding performer last year while spending most of his time in right. If he continues to produce on offense and is even passable in center, he’d be a quality everyday type player. And he can still shift back to a corner spot in 2018 (if not before, depending upon other players’ health, production, and development).
Giolito has lost some luster…no way that deal gets done this time last year. Eaton was about 6 WAR….that shocked me…he doesnt eye test to that. I do think he “potentially” has Alex Gordon type value…the kind of value thats truly underrated. Im not going to make a case the Nats didnt give up a lot…only speaking on Eatons upside. He helps them win a ring it wont matter.
Lost some luster over a handful of starts in a rookie year? Rookies are usually terrible. Mike Trout was terrible in his first (partial) season. He’s still in the prospect stage. We won’t know how good he is for at least 2-3 years unless he breaks out this year.
This is a risky trade that the Nationals will regret if they don’t at least make the NLCS in the next couple years.
Enon….Im only restating what many even around the game have wondered about Giolito. If he’s truly as previously advertised….Sox fleeced the Nats
Of the big three closers that were available, I believe the giants got the more consistent. Melancon doesn’t throw 100 but he’s got three nasty pitches
Melancon has only 3 consecutive years of 25+ Saves with a k/9 average over that time of 8.16.
Jansen has 5 consecutive years of at least 25 saves and a k/9 never under 13.
Chapman has 5 consecutive years of at least 33 saves and an average k/9 of 15.7.
There is a reason Melancon cost much less than those two, and both of them have been more consistent than him.
But a closer has zero control over how many saves he gets. A save is a stat compiled by managers, not the pitchers themselves.
The real bigger issue with Melancon is that he puts the ball in play more than the other two, and obviously balls in play are riskier than strikeouts. Shouldn’t be a huge problem now, as SF has three very good infield defenders, but could be eventually.
K/9 is fine and all, but I find your inclusion of saves here completely disingenuous.
You know why Melancon didn’t have 25+ saves four years ago? Because he wasn’t the team’s closer except a brief period he filled in during an injury. He hasn’t had a SV% lower than 89% since 2014 — and he wasn’t the closer for the entirety of 2014, so even that “low” mark is misleading. Just for comparison purposes, we’ll use all of 2014 even though it is disadvantageous to Melancon. The SV% of the three closers since then is Melancon 92.9% (131/141), Chapman 92.9% (105/113), Jansen 90.7% (127/140).
Melancon’s ERA has been above 2.00 one time since he left Boston, at 2.23, and even with a comparably low K/9 his FIP supports his stature as a guy with low-to-mid-2’s ERA.
If you think a higher K rate is more valuable or that he won’t fare well on a new team, there’s nothing wrong with that. But it’s awfully hard to claim Melancon hasn’t been as consistent as the rest. Once he was given the opportunity, he ran with it and has never looked back.
Saves and K’s aren’t the whole story. Melancon’s actual run prevention over the past several season has been better than Jansen or Chapman’s. He walks significantly fewer batters than the two as well. All the deals were overpays, but all FA deals are. That’s the nature of the business.
Lol, please don’t compare Melancon to Chapman. There is no comparison. Period.
I believe the Giants got the right closer for them. You’d like to see him rack up a few more Ks though….its not likely happening..but he’s been steady…he’s a Giants type player.
Dropping the #11 pick to run Desmond out at 1B for 70m doesn’t make a lot of sense in a bubble….I’d have to think they plan on another move or two…maybe a 1B and a SP.
Agreed. But then again, we’re trying to interject common sense and logic where there do any appear to be any.
Lets not let 23 years of history crash hope. Lol
Awfully early to speculate on these. Maybe the Nats know something about Giolito that no one else does. Maybe the Rockies actually do trade one of their outfielders and move Desmond out there. Chapman can’t be traded for 3 years so they better hope they contend between now and then. Otherwise a real waste of resources. As with all major moves, they tend to look very different 3-4 years down the road.
There was a lot of word going around that the Nats had soured on Gilioto significantly, as had the scouting departments of a number of other teams. His value dropped a fair bit over the last year.
Oh no! The Yankees wasting resources. They’ll probably go belly up if they don’t content in 3-4 years. LOL. They needed Chapman to draw fans to the games. Four years from now, the New York Yankees will still be one of the healthiest, wealthiest teams in MLB! The health of the Organization should not be questioned.
The Yanks will be one of the healthiest, wealthiest teams in MLB 40 years from now but even they won’t spend unlimited dollars. The new CBA is going to come down very hard on teams who keep exceeding the limit. George S. didn’t care how much he spent to win, but his sons care more about profits. I don’t think enough fans will come to games to see Chapman to make up his huge salary. That being said, he’s one of the best ever and if their young kids progress quickly it will turn out to be a great signing.
Nobody knows Giolito better than the Nats. They plainly concluded he wasn’t the stud everyone that he was. Lopez is the real deal. Dunning? Who knows. Trade may not pass the eye test, but Rizzo is shrewd.
Does chapmans contract have a full no trade clause? I dont think it does and even though the yankees may not be contending come the time to opt out theyll no doubt score a monster package for him again. Which is brilliant. Given how much giles kimbrel and miller cost to acquire come next year or in 2 years i see no problem with the yankees tossing in cash to facilitate a deal to net them top end talent. Course if he has a full no trade clause or limited trade clause of like 11 teams that puts a wrench in this idea and makes it a total head scratcher.
Yes, Chapman has a full NTC 2017-2019. Once his opt-out date passes he no longer has one.
As of now my initial reaction is that the Nats trade was the worst but it’s way too early to tell. I personally think the Rockies have another move or two in store to make the Desmond move make more sense and I like the idea of him hitting in Colorado. I think by the end of the season either Blackmon gets traded for prospects or trade Dahl in a package for a pitcher.
1. Jim Bowden is an idiot
2. The Desmond signing is easily the worst.
In 717 Lead Off At Bats for The Nationals in 2016. they had a 265.AVG/303.OBP/424.SLG line. Adam Eaton is better than each of those numbers and in the case of OBP he was way better. So to go out and get a player in Eaton who is far superior than what you have had and is the batter that opposing teams will see the most is just great to me. Can do it all, contract friendly, and by all accounts a good club house guy. With Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning. There is obviously a lot of talent there, but every year prospects are rolled in with the tide, and then swept to the ocean. The Nationals even without acquiring Sale had pitching in spades, so they could definitely afford to move pitchers who might only be truly developed when this current window for them is closed. This is coming from a Braves fan too by the way. I honestly like the trade if I am The Nationals.
The one that doesn’t make a ton of sense to me is Ian Desmond. I get the power fit in Coors, but age wise, skill set wise, and even contract wise. This signing is like shades of Melvin Upton Jr. for The Braves all over again. Like Melvin, Desmond can often hit for power when he hits, and does have some speed, but they are similar in K’s, low averages at times, and Low OBPs. Then The Rockies are going to stick him at 1st which to me further diminishes his value. So even with a pending trade. This deal is a head scratcher in every sense of the word.
To me signing Desmond was a backwards way of going about a multiple-player offseason process. Encarnacion wasn’t happening, but Trumbo would be solid in that park. Maybe use an OF to deal for a sp at that point. Could still be a good offseason talent wise for the Rockies…not sure Desmond was where to start an overspend though.
Burning the 11th overall pick to sign Desmond to a five year deal will end up being a terrible decision for Colorado.
how many #11 draft picks will be as good as Desmond should be the next 2-3 years? draft picks are over rated IMO. Give me a veteran performer who can help my team win now. Desmond cost the Rangers a top pick. Think that was worth it? I do. Ian carried this team in May, June and July and was a HUGE factor in Texas winning the west. The draft pick would not have helped.
But to play Desmond at first base? That team desperately needs pitching help. The 11th overall pick is not a throwaway either. You can land a very solid prospect with that selection
They would’ve gotten a pitcher if a high caliber one was willing to sign…
Eaton is a decent player. But the math nerds drooling over him is hilarious. The Eaton trade was the worst because they gave up three great prospects. The other two choices only involved money. Which all of those teams have plenty of.
And they are just that – prospects. The bust rate on prospects is significant. The Nats traded risk for some certainty – it’s not a hard one to figure out.
They aren’t three great prospects
> Calls people math nerds for their citing of data
> Fawns over data reports of untested hypothetical prospects instead of actual results of actual MLB players.
Touche’. But you can’t expect logic here.
Ian Desmond signing is dumbfounding. He’s not even an average hitter at first base. Most of his value was defensive so it seems silly to waste it there.
Bridich is painting his team into a corner with that move. It’s senseless to sign a guy for that much to underperform at 1B. Has to be the worst move of the lot.
I know Grandpa Bats is struggling but I’d still rather have him than Mark Trumbo. Trumbo should not even be in top 20 of the original list.
Trumbo would kill at Coors though.
As would Bautista…
And they’d still miss the playoffs
Nice call. They’re a pretty serious playoff sleeper if they add a sp. ANY semblance of a league average staff and Coors pays out.
Bautista on a one year deal…they’ve already lost their #11 overall pick on Desmond. Bautista get his 1b mitt ready…then load up an OF for a sp.
I fear Gilito might be a relative bust. Eaton plays center until Harper leaves, then moves to a corner. The Desmond trade only makes sense if they make a trade. They have young talent in the infield, so it must be CF after Blackmon is traded. Chapman is a puzzler unless they plan to keep him at closer after his option year. I went with the Desmond trade as the worst of the 3.
Jim Bowden criticizing anyone is the funniest thing. And worst trade he’s seen? He has been following this kind of thing for years correct? This isnt his first year?
Will it ever be possible to move on from Chapman’s alleged D.V. incident? The Yankees are a better team and a more exciting team with him on the roster. He is more accomplished at his position than anyone on the entire team. He is without question one of the Top 5 relievers in the game today.
I think Eaton was a little bit of overpriced.
Wow. Can’t believe the Yankees/Chapman deal isn’t higher up if not number 1. Chapman is so reliant on velocity the second he starts losing it he’ll get lit up. He had a very mediocre postseason and almost cost the Cubs the world series – not help them win it. Then there’s just the fact they’re paying him like 17-18m to pitch a whopping 65 or so innings per year. Stupid. Sure they got gleyber Torres but there is no guarantee he pans out. Prospects are so hit and miss, even more so with pitchers which is why the Nats deal for Eaton doesn’t shock me that much. Eaton is essentially dexter fowler only younger and significantly cheaper over the next 4 or so years he’s under control. Fowler on the other hand at advanced age is getting, what, $16M per season now. So the Nats get their center fielder for the foreseeable future who plays good defense, has a little bit of speed, hits about .285, and gets on base at a solid clip…… and he might be Harper’s replacement. All they give up are a few unproven pitchers. With scherzer, Strasburg, ross, and Roark its not like they’re hurting for pitching any time soon.
So again, to me the Chapman deal is the most ballsy and “dubious” one so far….. by far.
“Sure they got gleyber Torres but there is no guarantee he pans out.”
Torres is as close to a can’t miss prospect as there is. Easily #2 or #3 prospect in the league this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he jumps Moncada in the rankings.
The Desmond signing doesn’t make that much sense from a positional standpoint but I don’t think that makes it a bad signing. I doubt he’s going to spend all season playing there anyway.
i don’t think for a moment Colorado is done dealing.
Desmond could easily end up in the corner OF after Cargo signs his massive FA contract next winter. He could move to any position, really. I don’t think he should be looked at as a 5-year first baseman; just a 2017 1B.
Also the contract, given how much pay has been going up for FAs, isn’t that expensive. It’s also engineered to hit the payroll hardest next year when they’ll lose Cargo.
Not that bad of a deal.
Please shout your disagreement in my general direction.
Wouldn’t say that cargo is in for a *massive contract* exactly. The way his production has been trending and especially at colors field he’s not really looking at some mega contract. Encarnacion hit 267 with 42 home runs and got a 3 year 60 million deal. Edwin has been one of the most feared hitters in the al for 5 years. Cargo has been up and down for 3 and hit what 25 home runs playing at coors field last year? I would expect if his trend continues through next season he ends up getting 4 years at 17.5 mil per. Which isn’t really massive per say
You’re basing your entire argument off home run totals. That’s silly.
Also he’s made more annually over the last 3 years than your projection and that’s on a *team-friendly* deal he signed 6 years ago, long before players like Edwin were getting $20 mil/year as FAs.
Won’t disagree….but I don’t believe signing Desmond was meant as an isolated move. I’m sure they are shopping for a 1B in the Trumbo mold…maybe even Bautista…and they are likely throwing around Blackmon prospect packages for a starter.
I kind of wonder if they are opening the options of dealing either Trevor Story or Brendan Rodgers. Desmond actually buys them some maneuverability.
Sign a 1B…and they can flip from SS or the OF.
Free the Rockies from this ownership.
Ian Desmond is a good fit for his positional versatility, but #11 is potential star territory in the draft.
What would be the return on a Charlie Blackmon-Trevor Story package?
Also on a side note, the chapman signing makes no sense, yankees aren’t expecting to be serious World Series contenders for 2-3 more years. Best case senario with chapman is he performs well for 3 years and opts out right when the yankees are hitting their stride and actually need a frontline closer. Worst case senario is that sometime within the next 1-3 years chapmans control over velocity suffers and he hits a wall. That would leave the yankees stuck paying him 18 mil per for the remainder. Either way the deal makes no real sense.
If he opts out, couldn’t they then resign him? If they feel the need…
desmond out if position and forfeiting the 11th pick….these kinds of moves are why the Rockies are only ever mediocre.