Will Smith To Attempt Knee Rehab; Out At Least 6 Weeks
Brewers reliever Will Smith will attempt to rehab his ailing right knee, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports. The hope is that an approximately three-week layoff before throwing will allow the southpaw to avoid surgery for what has been diagnosed as a tear of his lateral collateral ligament.
Surgery, says Smith, likely would cost him most or all of the season. Given that he’d have plenty of time to rehab after the season even if the surgery is ultimately required, it certainly made sense to attempt the rehab route.
Even if the recovery process goes well, Smith figures to miss significant time. He’s a long-term piece of the team’s picture that will be handled with care. Surely, the Brewers will be cautious to ensure that he doesn’t further injure his knee or trigger an arm issue in compensating. Plus, he’ll need to ramp back up and make sure his arm is in shape before returning to major league action.
The knee issue will hit Smith’s wallet, especially if surgery is required. He’s due $1.48MM this year as a Super Two, and the possibility of racking up saves and holds promised a nice raise next winter. If he can make it back, that remains possible, but his innings will be limited and others — Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel chief among them — may have a chance to lock up the 9th inning while Smith is out.
Rangers Release Drew Stubbs
The Rangers have released outfielder Drew Stubbs, per an announcement from club executive VP of communications John Blake.
He had exercised his opt-out provision, Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram reports (Twitter links). Texas would likely welcome a reunion on a new minors deal if Stubbs can’t find a gig elsewhere, Wilson adds.
There were several factors at play here for Texas in deciding not to add Stubbs to the 40-man. His most valuable assets are speed and defense up the middle, and Ian Desmond‘s work at center in the spring may reduce their appeal of carrying a backup for Delino DeShields Jr. And, of course, there’s reason to believe that one or both of fellow right-handed-hitting outfield options Justin Ruggiano and Ryan Rua could provide more with the bat.
Stubbs, 31, has had a couple of solid seasons on offense, but on the whole carries a batting line that is about 10% below the league mean. He’s never graded as a standout defender, but has a solid glove. And while he hasn’t always maintained a sky-high stolen base total, Stubbs has rated as a truly elite baserunner.
Marlins Release Justin Maxwell, Don Kelly
The Marlins have released outfielder Justin Maxwell and infielder Don Kelly, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports (Twitter links). Both were in camp on minor league deals.
Mawell had exercised an opt-out clause, and obviously Miami was not willing to add him to the 40-man. His deal would have paid him $1.1MM at the major league level. The 32-year-old had an early-season renaissance with the Giants last year, but ultimately produced at just a .209/.275/.341 clip in his 274 plate appearances on the season.
Kelly, meanwhile, was an Article XX(B) free agent and thus would’ve been due a $100K roster bonus had he been kept in the minors. Now 36, Kelly took just one major league plate appearance last year, though he did make a big league showing for the seventh consecutive season. The glove-first infielder also only managed to suit up for a dozen minor league games with the Miami organization in 2015.
Blue Jays Release Steve Delabar, Randy Choate
The Blue Jays have released righty Steve Delabar, Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star reports on Twitter. Toronto also cut loose southpaw Randy Choate, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca was among those to tweet.
Delabar, 32, had agreed to avoid arbitration for $835K, and the Jays will remain on the hook for about one fifth of that (45 days of salary). But he was out of options and obviously wasn’t destined to make the pen. Things haven’t gone well for the righty since his All-Star nod in 2013. In the last two seasons he owns a 5.07 ERA in 55 frames with 8.3 K/9 against 5.4 BB/9 in the major leagues, and he’s also had stints at Triple-A in both years.
As for the veteran Choate, Toronto skipper John Gibbons says that the club hopes to sign him to a new deal to remain in the organization. He was an Article XX(B) free agent and thus was eligible for a $100K retention bonus had he been kept in the minors. A 40-year-old LOOGY, Choate has continued his dominance against left-handed hitters over the past several years but is a very marginal option against righties.
NL East Notes: Kolek, Nats, Arroyo, Phils
Marlins prospect Tyler Kolek is heading for a medical check-up after suffering an elbow injury and experiencing continued discomfort, MiLB.com’s Michael Leboff reports. That’s a disappointing turn of events for the 20-year-old, who scuffled in his first full professional season last year and was hoping to make strides in 2016. It’s important to note that it’s not yet clear whether Kolek will need any kind of surgery. The righty is still working to harness his high-powered fastball, and is obviously a long-term asset, but as things stand it certainly stings that Miami bypassed the promising Carlos Rodon — who’s already entrenched in a major league rotation — to take a shot on Kolek.
Here’s more from the NL East:
- The Nationals made a variety of roster moves today, as Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Top infield prospect Trea Turner was sent down, thus ending any speculation that he might crack the Opening Day roster. Likewise, a series of veterans were moved to minor league camp, including infielder Scott Sizemore and bullpen candidates Aaron Laffey and Nick Masset. As Zuckerman explains, that appears to clarify the remaining battles in those areas, though there are still multiple possibilities for the remaining bench and pen spots.
- Nationals righty Bronson Arroyo is planning to rehab his ailing shoulder and could return to the hill as soon as June, according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (via TwitLonger). That’s certainly a better outlook than once had been feared, and it seems possible that Arroyo could provide rotation depth down the line if he can get back to full health.
- The Phillies appear to have stopped their search for outfield depth after adding Will Venable, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Philadelphia had been inquiring about a number of possibilities, but rival executives tell Stark that the sense is those efforts have been halted.
- Meanwhile, the Phillies appear to be leaning toward keeping Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf in the major league pen, manager Pete Mackanin tells Stark (Twitter link). The newly-extended skipper adds that Edward Mujica is “still in the mix,” but seemingly did not commit to handing him an Opening Day roster spot.
Valuing 2016 Opt-Out Clauses
Back in January, I wrote an article in which I approximated the dollar value of the opt-out clauses in the contracts for David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jason Heyward. Since then, five more contracts with opt-outs have been signed, so I have extended this analysis to put values on these opt-outs as well. These include contracts for Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, and Wei-Yin Chen. Remember, these values are approximations of what these contracts would have cost without opt-outs. (Please reference the above-linked post for further explanation of the methodology.)
Too many people talk as though opt-outs are just bad decisions on the part of teams, without considering how much more expensive contracts would be without them. This logic would imply that no financial firm should ever sell a put—of course they should, but only at the right price.
The earlier three contracts were larger than almost all of the five more recent contracts. Other than Justin Upton, the other recent contracts were under $100 million, so the opt-out values are generally lower than the $17-22 million that I found for Price, Cueto, and Heyward. However, all five opt-out values all range between 10 and 15 percent of the full contract value, similar to the prior three deals.
The following table shows the assumptions surrounding the opt-outs, like the one in January’s article. (Mobile app users can click here to see it.)
Yoenis Cespedes received a three-year contract for $75 million, but it is really a $27.5 million one-year contract with a player option of a two-year, $47.5 million deal. Few players actually sign one-year deals for that much money, but as we saw a decade ago with Roger Clemens, one-year deals for superstars have an AAV much higher than the AAV superstars receive on longer deals. In this case, Cespedes would probably have been worth about $31.7 million on a one-year deal. At this stage, a reasonable estimate of Cespedes’ value for 2017-18 would be around $55.1 million. However, like with all of these deals, we know that it is very likely that Cespedes’ market value will change significantly by next year. Chances are that if he is good enough to opt-out, then he will have had a strong 2016 campaign, and his market value will be higher. I estimate this would be around $68.2 million for 2017-18 in that case. If he does not opt-out, then he probably has disappointed in 2016 and probably has lowered his two-year value for 2017-18 down to $36.9 million. With an estimated 60% chance of opting out, that puts Cespedes’ opt-out at about $11.8 million. In other words, a regular three-year deal for Cespedes would be for $86.8 million instead of $75 million.
Justin Upton’s contract six-year, $132.5 million contract with the Tigers amounts to a two-year, $44.25 million deal with a four-year, $85 million player option. As a relatively young free agent, Upton has the potential to remain very valuable by the time he reaches his opt-out, but as a unique talent he is a risk to regress to the mean significantly—there is more room for him to fall than mediocre players. I estimate that if he has opted out after 2017, he has played well enough over 2016-17 that his market value will be about $119.1 million over 2018-21, and if he has not opted out then it stands to reason he has played poorly enough that his market value for 2018-21 would be about $52.2 million. Further, I estimate that he has a 58 percent chance to opt out. As a result, Upton’s opt-out is worth about $19.7 million, meaning that his value in a six-year deal without an opt-out would be $152.2 million.
Scott Kazmir had a relatively small deal for one that included an opt-out. His deal amounts to a $16 million one-year deal with $32 million two-year player option. I estimate that if he has opted out after this year, then he must have played well enough in 2016 that his market value for 2017-18 probably reached around $44.1 million. On the other hand, if he has played poorly enough that he does not opt out, then I estimate his market value for 2017-18 must have fallen to around $21.7 million. I think there is a 46 percent chance he opts out. As a result, his opt-out value is only worth $5 million—so a regular three-year deal without an opt-out would probably have been for about $53 million.
Ian Kennedy’s $70 million five-year contract is actually a $27 million two-year deal with a three-year, $43 million player option. His contract values him significantly higher than his Steamer or especially his ZiPS projection on FanGraphs would suggest, making it challenging to estimate his value. However, it is safe to assume that the Royals are placing more value on him than the projection systems and that they probably expect that his 2016 value is higher. Furthermore, there must have been at least some pressure for another team (real or imagined) that caused the Royals to believe they had to offer as much as they did. So we need to estimate the equivalent value of a contract based on the what the Royals paid, rather than what ZiPS or Steamer (and up to 28 other teams potentially) seem to think. Based on this, if he has opted out after 2017, then there is a good chance that the Royals (and potentially the other team they imagined themselves outbidding) were right about him, but if he does not then there is a good chance the projection systems were right. I estimate that his value over 2018-20 would only be $15 million conditional on not opting out, while it would be about $57.7 million if he played well enough to justify opting out. I think the Royals estimate a 44 percent chance that he will opt out (again, another team bidding presumably thought something similar), making his opt-out value about $7.1 million. A five-year deal without an opt-out would probably be worth about $77.1 million.
Wei-Yin Chen has a tricky deal. Nominally he has a 5 year deal worth $80 million, but it is really a $28 million deal over two years, with a player option for $52 million over the following three years. However, if he does not opt out, then the team has an option for 2021 that will actually vest if he pitches a sufficient number of innings and is healthy. Putting a value on a vesting option that is conditional on having a low value after 2017 is tricky, but I believe I have come up with a reasonable estimate. I think that if he does opt out, his value for 2018-20 is probably about $60.4 million, while his conditional value if he plays poorly enough to not opt out would be $21.3 million over 2018-20. His vesting option at the end is essentially worth under $2 million to the team. I think that on a normal five-year contract for 2016-20, Chen would have gotten about $82 million, which means his opt-out value was about $12 million.
As these deals become more common, it becomes more important to properly value these put options. I estimate that these five deals would each have cost about 10 to 15 percent more for teams if they did not provide the players with opt-out clauses. Players with more years post opt-out and higher talent levels will generally have a larger value to opting out, while the inverse is true for players with fewer years post opt-out who are less talented. While these opt-outs are risky, they definitely provide an opportunity for teams to save money relative to mutually guaranteed longer contracts.
Padres Acquire Dan Straily From Astros For Erik Kratz
The Padres have acquired righty Dan Straily from the Astros in exchange for veteran catcher Erik Kratz, the clubs have announced. Houston had been searching for another backstop after losing presumed reserve Max Stassi to injury.
Straily, 27, is out of options and did not appear in line for a rotation job with the Astros. He was, however, competing for a spot in the Houston pen. It’s certainly possible he could function in either capacity with the Padres.
It’s been something of an uphill battle for Straily since a promising 2013 season with the Athletics, in which he threw 152 1/3 innings and compiled a 3.96 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. He’s only made 18 appearances (seven from the pen) since that time, with his earned run average ballooning to 6.42. He’s still young and controllable, but he’s also bounced from the A’s to the Cubs to the ‘Stros as a small part of more significant trades.
Meanwhile, San Diego has been rumored to be shopping its catching depth for longer than Houston has even had a need. Derek Norris, Christian Bethancourt, and Austin Hedges look like the top three options for the Padres. Rocky Gale remains in camp, too. More than likely, Kratz — who had a minor league deal with San Diego — wasn’t cracking the MLB roster anytime soon.
The veteran Kratz looks like a true stop-gap for Houston, while the club awaits the return of Stassi. The 35-year-old has spent time in the majors in parts of the last six seasons. He was most active over 2012-13 with the Phillies, and also topped 100 plate appearances in total in 2014, but last year he played in only 16 major league games.
All told, Kratz owns a .218/.270/.397 slash with 23 home runs in 560 MLB plate appearances. That’s quite an impressive power outlay, and Kratz owns an excellent .266/.343/.473 line in his Triple-A career. (That’s not a short sample, either: he’s seen action in ten seasons, and has 1,820 plate appearances on his ledger.)
Of course, striking this deal doesn’t necessarily preclude the Astros from searching for a more significant catching addition, though that seems increasingly unlikely — particularly since the club announced that it has added Kratz to its 40-man roster. Likewise, the Pads could still conceivably deal one of their other backstops. It’s worth noting, too, that adding Straily would help ease the burden if San Diego were to find a trade partner for James Shields, though his presence hardly changes the calculus of such a significant move.
Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle first reported the swap on Twitter, noting that Straily was going and a catcher was involved. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that Kratz was involved, on Twitter.
Royals Release Brian Duensing, Peter Moylan, Clint Barmes
The Royals have released a trio of veterans who were in camp on minor league deals, per a club announcement. Pitchers Brian Duensing and Peter Moylan were let go along with infielder Clint Barmes.
All three players were Article XX(B) free agents, meaning that Kansas City would have had to offer them an active roster spot or pay a $100K retention bonus tomorrow. Instead, the organization obviously elected to cut ties — though it’s worth noting that some such players end up reaching alternative deals to re-join the same organizations they spent camp with.
Duensing had actually exercised an opt-out clause in his deal earlier today as well. The Royals would have owed the southpaw $2MM on the major league roster. The 33-year-old had established himself as a capable LOOGY after failing to stick in the rotation, but had a rough 2015 (4.25 ERA, 4.4 K/9 vs. 3.9 BB/9).
The 37-year-old Moylan, a side-arming righty from Australia, had a surprising 2015 with the Braves last year. He had joined the organization as a minor league player-coach, but ended up reaching the MLB pen. Moylan is far removed from his excellent run with Atlanta earlier in his career, but still managed to allow only four earned runs in his 10 1/3 innings last year, while striking out eight and avoiding any walks. (Of course, those frames also came in 22 appearances, as Moylan was almost exclusively allowed to face right-handed batters.)
Barmes, meanwhile, has never shown much with the bat in his thirteen MLB seasons, but still holds some appeal as a utility piece due to his highly-regarded glove — though metrics have soured on his defense of late. It always seemed he’d face long odds in Kansas City, and a healthy spring from the club’s other middle infield options left him without a chair.
AL Notes: Panda, Rangers, Sanchez, White, Angels
The Padres have sent a scout to watch Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. It’s far from clear whether that is an indication of serious interest, of course, let alone whether the scout is watching more than just Sandoval. Regardless, it’s the latest hint that there could be some remaining trade chatter to be held between these organizations, who already struck a significant swap early in the offseason.
Here’s more from the eastern divisions:
- The Rangers are not only continuing their search for another catcher, but could look outside the organization for rotation help, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. A.J. Griffin may have the inside track to take the fifth starter’s job at present, says Grant, but there’s some concern about the overall starting pitching depth as camp comes to a close. As for the backstop situation, it doesn’t appear that much has changed, but Texas is still looking to improve upon its reserve options — if not to strike a more significant upgrade. (Grant notes that the club has inquired on Derek Norris of the Padres and Bryan Holaday of the Tigers.)
- Of course, interest doesn’t always mean that a deal gets done, and significant spring trades are rare. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also reports that the Rangers have real interest in both areas (Twitter links), but he says the club thinks it has only an “outside chance” at adding a catcher and is “doubtful” to find a new pitcher. All in all, both reports suggest that Texas is looking at its options but is hardly certain to add outside pieces. And still others suggest there’s not much reason to expect movement. Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram tweets that outside inquiries have mostly been tire-kicking exercises, while MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan adds on Twitter that club officials have suggested to him that the final rotation piece will come from inside the organization.
- Reclamation righty Matt Bush isn’t in the mix for an Opening Day pen spot with the Rangers, Grant also writes, but he has been enormously impressive this spring and could be an option later in the season. Bush’s story is well-known, of course — the former first overall draft pick recently finished a prison term for severely injuring a man in a DUI.
- Aaron Sanchez has been named as the Blue Jays‘ fifth starter, manager John Gibbons told reporters (including John Lott of Blue Jays Nation) this morning. It won’t be a season-long assignment for Sanchez, however, as the righty seems to be under an innings cap and will eventually be transitioned into the bullpen as he approaches his limit. The 23-year-old has never thrown more than 133 1/3 innings in a season. Sanchez and Gavin Floyd emerged as the top two contenders for the fifth starter’s job during camp, and Floyd will join Jesse Chavez in the bullpen while Drew Hutchison has been optioned to Triple-A. It stands to reason that Floyd, Chavez or Hutchison will all be rotation candidates when Sanchez is moved back to relief pitching.
- The Astros have decided to give an Opening Day roster spot to young first baseman Tyler White, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. Houston’s first-base situation has been in flux all spring, but it appears that the 33rd-round draftee is in line for a significant opportunity to take the position and run with it. He is one of several players in the organization who have impressed this spring; third base prospect Colin Moran has also compiled a 1.000+ OPS in more than thirty plate appearances, though Drellich notes on Twitter that he’s not considered a roster option at this point. The same holds true of A.J. Reed, of course, who could also have a chance to make an impact later in the season.
- Angels GM Billy Eppler says that he is “not optimistic” of adding to his roster before the season starts, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports. Gonzalez provides a deep rundown of the club’s remaining roster considerations.
Jamey Wright To Retire
Veteran righty Jamey Wright, who was in camp with the Dodgers on a minor league deal, is set to retire, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was among those to tweet. The 41-year-old didn’t appear professionally last season after he was released late in camp by the Rangers.
Wright has pitched in 19 big league seasons over his lengthy career, which was divided roughly into two portions. He entered the league in the rotation and ultimately made just under 250 starts, the vast majority of them coming between 1996 and 2006.
The results weren’t always there, as he ran up a 5.13 ERA and 1.06 K:BB ratio in that role, but it’s fair to note that he spent a good portion of that period working in an inflated run-scoring environment. And, of course, Wright spent six seasons with the Rockies — the team with which he entered the league.
Wright ultimately shifted to a relief role after joining the Rangers in 2007. After that transition year, he went on a seven-year run in which he compiled a 4.03 ERA over 498 frames, with 6.7 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9.
The timeless right-hander turned in a productive campaign as recently as 2013, when he tossed 70 innings for the Rays and carried a 3.09 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 — all career-best single-season tallies (except, of course, the innings). In his final season, with the Dodgers in 2014, Wright again topped 70 frames but fell back to a 4.35 earned run mark.
All told, Wright suited up for ten MLB teams. His longest run was with Colorado, but Wright also spent three years with the Brewers. He appeared in two seasons in Los Angeles and also had repeat appearances for the Royals, Rangers, and Mariners. As if that weren’t enough, Wright enjoyed single-season stints with Tampa Bay as well as the Giants, Indians, and (only briefly) the Cardinals.
MLBTR wishes the respected veteran the best of luck in his future pursuits