Nationals, Blue Jays Nearing Swap Of Ben Revere For Drew Storen
9:20pm: The Nationals and Blue Jays are nearing a deal that would send Revere to D.C. in exchange for Storen, Heyman reports on Twitter.
9:13pm: Washington’s interest is “very strong,” Heyman tweets, who says it is indeed “possible” that Storen could be a key piece in a trade scenario. The Jays are looking to add to their relief corps in a deal involving Revere, per the report.
8:57pm: The Nationals are at least considering making a play for Blue Jays outfielder Ben Revere, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. Washington has long been said to be seeking a center-field-capable outfielder, especially one that swings from the left side.
Obviously, Washington just saw precisely such a player — incumbent starter Denard Span — leave by way of free agency. It never seemed there was much of a chance of a reunion, particularly after the Nats decided not to make him a qualifying offer.
Revere, 27, is projected by MLBTR to earn a healthy $6.7MM through arbitration this year and can be controlled for another season thereafter through the arb system. He’s coming off of his best overall season at the plate as a big leaguer, having posted a .306/.342/.377 slash over 634 plate appearances split between the Phillies and Blue Jays. Revere rarely strikes out, but also doesn’t walk much at all, making him highly dependent on sustaining a high batting average — which he’s done by making loads of solid-enough contact and then turning on the jets.
Of course, Revere’s biggest assets are his legs. Not only has he swiped eighty bags over the past two years, he’s also been second in all of baseball in total value on the basepaths in that span. Curiously, though, he’s seen his defensive valuations plummet despite his obvious athleticism. Revere rated as a well-above-average outfielder during his last two years with the Twins, but has ranged between below average and rather awful over his three most recent campaigns. Poor routes have often been cited as an explanation, though it remains curious that Revere was able to draw high marks from metrics previously.
Obviously, any effort to add Revere would require the Nats to dangle something appealing to the Blue Jays. Toronto certainly seems to be in a position to ship him out, as the team could rely upon players such as Kevin Pillar, Michael Saunders, and Dalton Pompey to occupy center and left. But sacrificing that depth, after having given value to get Revere last July, would surely come at a price.
One concept that I’ve seen floated as a hypothetical possibility would be to structure a swap around Nationals reliever Drew Storen. He’s projected to take home $8.8MM via arbitration before hitting the open market after the season, and Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post tweeted today that he’s still very much available.
There are certainly other ways to imagine a deal coming together, depending on the respective motivations of each team to move these not-inexpensive pieces, but the pen is one area that the Jays could stand to upgrade. And the concept of exchanging players with roughly similar salaries often holds appeal. (Consider, for instance, the recent Jon Niese–Neil Walker swap or the Nationals’ own deal last year sending Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar.)
Market Notes: Davis, Parra, Angels, Span
Scott Boras is “pushing to create options” for his power-hitting client, Chris Davis, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Per Olney, Boras has been “selling” teams on Davis’s ability to be an everyday corner outfielder as well as a first baseman. We’ve heard that suggestion previously, of course — including from Boras himself — but it’s certainly interesting to hear that the super-agent is still pressing the concept this late in the offseason.
Here’s more on the free agent market:
- We’ve heard that the Rockies have continued interest in Gerardo Parra, with Jon Heyman saying yesterday that the team is pushing to add him. Indeed, says Chris Cotillo of SB Nation, Colorado is aggressively pursuing the veteran outfielder. (Twitter links.) The Nationals and Angels are among the other teams that are at least dabbling in Parra’s market, he adds. Obviously, a signing by Colorado would be doubly interesting, as it could suggest that the team is lining up a deal involving one of its incumbents.
- Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, on the other hand, hears that the Angels are “still not really involved” in the top of the free agent outfield market. (Twitter link.) That includes Parra as well as players like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Dexter Fowler. Fletcher adds that he sees a trade for a lower-cost option, such as Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies, to be a more realistic outcome.
- Denard Span said in his introductory press conference today that he feels good and is well on track to be at full speed this spring, as CSN Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic reports. He chose San Francisco, per Boras (who is also his agent), because the team met his three-year ask and were “a priority because of the fit for them and the fit for Denard.” Club CEO Larry Baer, meanwhile, said that “Denard has been on our radar for a long time.“
- Span drew real interest from the Orioles, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, but Baltimore was never going to guarantee more than a single season. Unsurprisingly, the O’s weren’t alone in that regard, as Boras says that fully eleven teams had interest in Span on a one-year arrangement, as Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports.
Giants Sign Denard Span
The Giants have announced the signing of free agent outfielder Denard Span to a three-year contract. He’ll reportedly receive a $31MM guarantee in the deal, which includes a fourth-year mutual option at $12MM with a $4MM buyout. After taking home a $6MM signing bonus and a $3MM salary for 2016, Span will earn two consecutive $9MM annual payouts.
Span, who turns 32 in February, can also earn incentives of up to $5MM. He can tack $1MM onto his salary in 2016, and up to $2MM apiece in the following two years, by hitting plate appearance thresholds that culminate at 525 turns at bat annually. Span is a client of the Boras Corporation.
With the move, San Francisco is set to add yet another significant free agent after previously inking Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. The first two signings upgraded the rotation, of course, while the move to bring on Span will bolster an outfield corps that had looked in need of an addition. While the club previously chased Ben Zobrist, who might have provided some infield depth as well as a regular option in left, it seems plausible to think that Span’s signing will wrap up the club’s major offseason business.
It’s unclear at present what precise role Span will play. He’s spent the bulk of his time in center, but could also be an option in left. Angel Pagan has been the team’s regular option up the middle in recent years, but he (like Span) has dealt with quite a few injuries. And Gregor Blanco is also capable of playing there.
All three of those players ought to cover things in center and left, with Hunter Pence likely getting the bulk of the action in right. But he, too, could also be spelled at times against right-handed pitching. While Pagan is a switch-hitter, he’s performed better from the left side over his career. (The same holds true, unsurprisingly, for the left-handed-hitting Span and Blanco, though none have dramatic platoon splits.)
The overall mix has its share of upside but also comes with some risk. All three of the returning players missed time last year, and Span has battled through core muscle and hip surgeries in the last year. It’s notable, too, that Span is the youngest of the bunch. But the presence of a high-quality fourth outfielder in Blanco, as well as some younger options in the system, certainly helps.
In Span, the Giants will get one of the best contact hitters in all of baseball. Over the last three years, Span ranks second — behind Michael Brantley and in front of just-departed Giants left fielder Nori Aoki — in overall contact rate.
And that approach has translated into results. While he doesn’t leave the yard very often, Span delivers plenty of extra-base hits with his line-drive and ground-ball heavy stroke. Since joining the Nationals via trade before the 2013 season, he has posted a sturdy .292/.345/.404 batting line, good for a 109 wRC+. And those numbers trended up over his time in D.C.
Of course, the fleet-footed Span also contributes quite a bit on the bases. He’s a significant stolen base threat — his 62 steals dating to the start of 2013 rank 22nd in baseball — but the value goes beyond that as well. Span has received positive marks from Fangraphs’ BsR metric in every season of his career, making him one of the game’s thirty best overall runners in that time frame.
Defensively, Span is a tough player to value. Metrics once valued him as a well-above-average center fielder. But the more recent results suggest that his range has declined. Last year, UZR hit Span with his worst-ever rating and DRS charged him with a rather remarkable -10 defensive runs saved over just 523 innings in the field.
The contract falls somewhat shy of the three-year, $39MM pact predicted by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes at the outset of the winter, but Span’s market was always tough to call given that he ended the season on the DL. If nothing else, the fact that he reached a third guaranteed year shows that there’s still plenty of demand on the market.
Jon Heyman first reported that a deal was close, via Twitter, and added details on the incentives clause (on Twitter), as did Bob Nightengale of USA Today (in a tweet). Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area tweeted the guarantee. Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News first noted that there were incentives (Twitter link). Baggarly (on Twitter) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (in a tweet) had details of the mutual option. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports had the full breakdown of the deal on Twitter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/8/16
With the start of the new year, it’s likely there will be an increased flow of arbitration agreements. We’ll keep tabs on the day’s relatively minor arbitration agreements in this post. As always, all arbitration projections are via MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz.
- Righty Zach McAllister has agreed to a $1.3MM salary with the Indians, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That represents a nice bump up over the $1MM he had been projected for. The first-time-eligible, 28-year-old hurler has put up much greater innings totals in previous seasons than he did last year, when he transitioned full-time to the pen. That could be a cause for the increased earnings. Of course, the move to a relief role proved rather fruitful for all involved, as he turned in a 3.00 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 in his 69 frames.
- The Rockies have agreed to avoid arbitration with righty Jordan Lyles, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports previously reported.* He’ll receive a $2.975MM deal for the 2016 season, which comes in slightly above his $2.8MM projection. The small raise isn’t a surprise given that Lyles only threw 49 frames in ten starts in the 2015 campaign. The righty, who only just turned 25, had something of a breakout season in 2014, when he put up a 4.33 ERA in 126 2/3 innings. While he notched only 6.4 K/9, with a 3.3 BB/9 walk rate, Lyles was able to induce grounders on better than fifty percent of the balls put in play against him. And that earned run mark means more for a Colorado-based pitcher, of course. But ERA estimators viewed Lyles as a low-4.00 ERA contributor even in 2014. And the time missed remains somewhat concerning, although the injuries that caused it — a fractured hand and toe ligament tear — may not be indicative of his durability going forward.
*Editor’s Note: this arbitration agreement was mistakenly re-posted after previously being reported.
Angels Avoid Arbitration With Hector Santiago
The Angels have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal with lefty Hector Santiago, the club announced. He’ll receive a $5MM salary, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).
Santiago was projected by MLBTR to earn $5.1MM in his second season of arbitration eligibility after taking home $2.29MM last year. Obviously, he’ll land right in the range of that projection.
The 28-year-old southpaw has had some hiccups at times, but it’s hard to argue with his overall results. Since being acquired by the Halos as part of the pre-2014 Mark Trumbo deal, Santiago owns a 3.65 ERA over 308 innings with 7.9 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9.
On the other hand, metrics are not big fans of Santiago’s work thus far in Los Angeles. He’s never been a darling of ERA estimators, but he reached a new low last year with a 4.77 FIP, 5.00 xFIP, and 4.50 SIERA mix going onto his resume.
Latest On Astros-Cardinals Computer Breach Matter
There’s been a lot of action surrounding the guilty plea entered today by former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa, in which he admitted to certain charges brought against him for an improper accessing of the Astros’ “Ground Control” database. The complaint against Correa revealed several important alleged details, as did his statements today in open court.
In particular, Correa suggested — when asked by the judge — that he had found proprietary Cardinals’ information in the Astros’ systems. (David Barron of the Houston Chronicle was on hand, and his Twitter timeline is chock full of information on the proceedings.) Of course, former Cardinals executive Jeff Luhnow moved from St. Louis to become the Astros’ general manager, which Correa says was the cause for his look into the competitor’s databases.
The Astros have issued a statement in response. Per Houston general counsel Giles Kibbe, the club is withholding comment on “the details” at present. But he did make clear that Houston “refute[s] Mr. Correa’s statement that our database contained any information that was proprietary to the St. Louis Cardinals.”
In theory, then, there are still at least two open matters for the league to consider: first, any punishment and/or compensation relating to the breach by a (now-former) Cardinals employee. And second, the question whether the St. Louis organization actually was harmed as well.
The league has made clear that it is not prepared to act on either or both subjects at present. Per a league statement:
“Major League Baseball appreciates the efforts of federal law enforcement authorities in investigating the illegal breach of the Astros’ baseball operations database, and identifying the perpetrator of this crime. We anticipate that the authorities will share with us the results of their investigation at the appropriate time, and we will determine what further actions to take after receiving all the relevant information.”
While it remains to be seen how things will proceed, preliminary indications are that a quiet resolution is more likely than a public battle between the organizations. Kibbe’s statement on behalf of the ‘Stros also hinted as much. “We have a great amount of respect for Bill DeWitt and the Cardinals organization,” he said. “And, we are confident that Commissioner Manfred will guide MLB through this process in the best way possible.”
MLB’s constitution specifically provides that teams may not file suit against one another, but must instead take any disputes to the commissioner as an arbitrator. (H/t to Nathaniel Grow of Fangraphs.) While a lawsuit could still theoretically be pursued, if Houston were to identify some loophole that it might argue for as an exemption from the arbitration requirement, that seems as unlikely to succeed as it is to be attempted.
Per the proceedings and the complaint (via Wendy Thurm, on Twitter), the government alleged as a result of its investigation that Correa had done quite a bit of significant snooping. According to the government, he accessed the system at least during the time frame of March of 2013 through June of 2014, and also made his way into the e-mail accounts of two unnamed (but easily assumed) “victims” — executives who had moved from the Cardinals to the Astros.
Among other things, Correa is alleged in May of 2013 to have peaked at the Astros’ ranking of 2013 draft-eligible players; large swaths of other draft-related scouting and assessment data; scouting information relating to the Cardinals’ system; and logs of Houston’s trade talks. He is said to have accessed the system again during the draft. And he allegedly went back to check the trade notes on the morning of the 2013 trade deadline.
While the Astros made significant changes to their database security after the Ground Control system was publicized early in 2014, Correa was allegedly able to find the new password information because of the aforementioned email access. He is charged with again checking in on the team’s trade logs, draft information, international evaluations, and other information in March of 2014.
Ultimately, of course, whether or not Correa was able to find the Cardinals’ information on the Astros’ system, that was never going to be much of a legal defense, as prosecutor Kenneth Magidson explained to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. As reported earlier today, Correa pleaded guilty to five (out of twelve total) counts of unauthorized access to computer information, which come with a maximum of up to a five-year prison sentence, plus fines and restitution. While sentencing will not take place until April 11th, Goold explains that Correa will likely receive three or four years of jail time. That’s due to the terms of the plea deal, under which Correa acknowledged that the value of the information taken was around $1.7MM and that he had attempted to conceal his identity in accessing the system.
Justin Upton’s Agent: “Not Considering Shorter-Term Deals At This Time”
Larry Reynolds, the representative of free agent outfielder Justin Upton, tells Jon Heyman that his client is not interested in a short-term deal as things stand. (Twitter links.) While there’s been some buzz recently that the 28-year-old could be forced to take a pillow contract with an eye on re-entering the market next year, that seems not to be a present consideration.
Here’s the full quote from the veteran agent: “We are not considering shorter-term deals at this time. The goal has been and will continue to be a long term contract for Justin Upton.”
From my perspective, it would indeed be rather premature for Upton and his representatives even to entertain the idea of a pillow contract — let alone a deal that would promise away a few prime seasons and put Upton back on the market in his early thirties. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes argued entering the winter, a seven-year, $147MM contract seemed a reasonable outcome for the still-youthful, power-hitting Upton.
And it’s not yet clear that the situation has changed drastically. The two biggest free agent outfield pieces to sign thus far — Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon — went to clubs that probably weren’t ever going to factor in the market for Upton (or fellow top option Yoenis Cespedes). It’s arguable, then, that most of the plausible suitors for Upton entering the offseason still remain plausible landing spots.
That’s not to say that a short-term arrangement is out of the question. The qualifying offer hurts any free agent, and we’ve seen sluggers like Nelson Cruz forced to settle in the past. But Upton’s age and consistent production make him quite a different investment opportunity than was Cruz in the 2013-14 winter, when he was also coming off of a PED suspension.
Dan Jennings Joins Nationals Front Office
Former Marlins GM (and, most recently, manager) Dan Jennings has officially joined the Nationals organization as a special assistant to GM Mike Rizzo, according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (via Twitter) and Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (Twitter link). Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter) first reported that Jennings was likely to head to D.C.
The veteran baseball man had been a front office free agent since formally parting ways with Miami in late October. Jennings took a rare career path in the Marlins organization, which he had been with since 2002 after a long run on the scouting side. After starting out as VP of player personnel and then becoming an assistant GM, Jennings eventually took on the role of general manager after prior GM Michael Hill was promoted to become the team’s president of baseball operations.
But the real twist came early last year, when Jennings moved into the dugout after Mike Redmond’s firing. The Marlins reportedly had decided to move on to another skipper after the season, but it seemed at one point that Jennings would return to the front office to finish out the terms of his contract with the organization, which ran through 2018. Miami will still be responsible for at least some of the $5.6MM remaining on that deal.
According to the team’s announcement, Jennings will “focus on all facets of the Nationals’ scouting operations.” Given the high regard in which he’s held around the game, it seems likely that he’ll have a strong voice with Rizzo. Jennings will obviously be competing directly against his former club in the National League East, which only adds to the intrigue surrounding his departure.
Padres To Sign Adam Rosales
The Padres have agreed to a minor league deal with infielder Adam Rosales, Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports on Twitter. He’ll provide a veteran utility option to the organization.
Rosales, 32, has seen action in each of the last eight MLB seasons. All said, he owns a .227/.294/.342 batting line and 27 home runs over 1,226 plate appearances. Much of his appeal, of course, lies in the fact that he’s capable of playing all over the infield. Indeed, Rosales, has logged at least five hundred major league frames at first, second, third, and short.
Orioles Claim Joey Terdoslavich
The Orioles have claimed infielder/outfielder Joey Terdoslavich off waivers from the Braves, according to a team announcement. Terdoslavich lost his roster spot to make way for the signing of Kelly Johnson, which Atlanta announced today.
The 27-year-old Terdoslavich had previously spent his entire career in the Braves organization. He’s only taken 162 trips to the plate in the majors over the past three seasons.
While he’s yet to get much of a chance in the majors, Terdoslavich owns a reasonably useful .264/.337/.423 batting line in over 1,300 plate appearances at Triple-A. Of course, it’s been some time since he received a look at third base, and that slash isn’t all that impressive for a player who is limited to first base and corner outfield duties.