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Jordan Lyles

Royals Sign Jordan Lyles

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Dec. 28: The Royals have officially announced their deal with Lyles.

Dec. 20: Lyles has a two-year, $17MM deal with the Royals, tweets Feinsand. The agreement also contains performance bonuses and is still pending the completion of a physical, tweets Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner.

Dec. 19: The Royals are nearing agreement on a contract with free agent starter Jordan Lyles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). It’s likely to be a two-year contract for the Ballengee Group client, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Assuming the deal eventually pushes across the finish line, it’ll be the eighth MLB organization for Lyles. The former first-rounder and top prospect has moved around the league in journeyman fashion, securing numerous opportunities on the strength of his durability and a strong clubhouse reputation. Lyles has made 28-plus starts in each of the past three full seasons, entirely avoiding the injured list since June 2019.

The right-hander doesn’t post especially eye-opening numbers on a rate basis. He’s pitched parts of 12 seasons in the majors and never managed an ERA below 4.00, allowing more than five earned runs per nine innings in eight years. Some of that is attributable to difficult environments, as he’s spent multiple seasons calling hitter-friendly venues like Coors Field and Globe Life Field home. Yet he also consistently runs lower than average strikeout rates, and the significant number of balls in play has helped lead to a 5.10 ERA through more than 1300 career innings.

To his credit, Lyles is coming off one of the better seasons of his career. Signed to a $7MM guarantee by Baltimore last offseason, he ably filled the role of ’innings-eating veteran’ on an otherwise young pitching staff. Lyles took the ball all 32 times for the O’s, ranking 29th in the majors with 179 innings pitched. He threw strikes and posted a reasonable 4.42 ERA in arguably the game’s most hitter-friendly division. Lyles walked just 6.7% of batters faced this year, nearly a percentage point lower than the league average and his lowest rate since his 2011 rookie season.

The 32-year-old wasn’t overpowering. He averaged 91.8 MPH on his fastball while posting lower than average strikeout and swinging strike marks (18.6% and 9.3%, respectively). He was hit hard to a .278/.347/.500 clip by left-handed hitters, while he held same-handed opponents to a more manageable .275/.318/.418 line. Fielding independent metrics like FIP (4.40) and SIERA (4.36) generally pegged his production right in line with his actual run prevention mark.

Lyles performed as well as the Orioles could’ve reasonably anticipated at the time they signed him, logging plenty of serviceable but slightly below-average innings. Nevertheless, Baltimore paid him a $1MM buyout in lieu of an $11MM option at the start of the offseason. They reallocated the $10MM to fellow veteran Kyle Gibson, who inked a one-year free agent deal after a season and a half in Philadelphia. Dan Connolly of the Athletic wrote this evening that Baltimore had cursory conversations with Lyles about a potential reunion — presumably at a lower price point — but talks never advanced beyond the initial stages.

Instead, Lyles looks as if he’ll head to Kansas City to play the same role he did in Baltimore. The Royals have a young pitching staff that’s light on certainty. Brady Singer looks to have at least emerged as a mid-rotation starter after posting a 3.23 ERA across 153 1/3 innings. He’s the only of the Royals’ stable of talented young arms to do so thus far, as players like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic and Carlos Hernández haven’t found much consistency.

Adding some veteran stability to the mix seemed to be a priority for general manager J.J. Picollo and his front office. They’ve targeted the lower tiers of the free agent rotation market to that end. Last week, Kansas City inked southpaw Ryan Yarbrough to a $3MM guarantee. It seems they’ll follow with Lyles, bringing in two experienced arms to raise the unit’s floor. Singer, Lyles and Yarbrough seem as if they’ll take spots in the season-opening rotation, while players like Lynch, Bubic, Hernández and Brad Keller may jostle for roles at the back end.

Financial terms under discussion aren’t yet clear, though Lyles doesn’t figure to break the bank. Roster Resource projects K.C. for a player payroll around $79MM, a fair bit shy of last year’s season-opening mark in the $94MM range. The Royals could further clear some spending room by contemplating trades of arbitration-eligible players like Keller, Scott Barlow or Adalberto Mondesi or a deal involving center fielder Michael A. Taylor, who’s guaranteed $4.5MM in the second season of a two-year extension.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Nationals Have Had Discussions With Jordan Lyles

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo said yesterday that the club plans to pursue rotation upgrades and it’s possible they have some self-imposed urgency in that search. Talk Nats reports that Rizzo wants to have a pitcher locked in before the end of the Winter Meetings, which conclude tomorrow. On a related note, Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post reports that the club has had discussions with free agent Jordan Lyles.

The fact that the Nats are interested in starting pitchers is hardly shocking, given the uncertainty they have in that part of their roster. Stephen Strasburg has pitched just over 30 innings over the past three seasons combined and still isn’t sure what he can do in the future. Patrick Corbin still has two seasons remaining on his contract but has seen his ERA climb in four straight years, ending up at 6.31 in 2022. Apart from those two, the other rotation options are limited in experience and have concerns with either their health or performance. Josiah Gray has a 5.17 ERA through 219 1/3 career innings. Cade Cavalli made one MLB start before shoulder inflammation ended his 2022. MacKenzie Gore used to be the top pitching prospect in the sport but lost his command over 2020 and 2021. He got back on track in 2022 but then missed the second half of the season due to elbow inflammation.

Adding a stable veteran like Lyles into the mix would be plenty sensible, as that’s essentially the same role he just played in Baltimore in 2022. The rebuilding O’s had a similarly unclear rotation and signed Lyles to a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a club option for 2023. Lyles ended up making 32 starts for the club, absorbing 179 innings. His 4.42 ERA and 18.6% strikeout rate weren’t elite, but he limited walks to a 6.7% rate.

Those results are roughly in line with the numbers Lyles, now 32, has put up over his 12-year career. The O’s could have retained him for another season via a club option valued at $11MM but instead opted for the $1MM buyout, returning him to the open market. Most of the win-now teams will be focused on the starters with larger upside, with Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander already off the board and Carlos Rodón seeming to have abundant interest. Back-end options like Lyles could wait around and see if those contenders will circle back to them later in the offseason, but some of them will also get some early interest. The O’s have already signed Kyle Gibson, effectively replacing Lyles as the veteran innings eater on the team. Meanwhile, the Rockies have re-signed José Ureña, the Tigers have added Matt Boyd and the Pirates have added Vince Velasquez. If the Nats like Lyles as their target for the stable vet, it’s possible for a deal to come together quickly.

Mike Elias Discusses Orioles’ “Win-Now Mode” Offseason

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke with reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham) at the GM Meetings about some of Baltimore’s winter plans, as the club looks to build on its surprising 83-win season.  While Elias noted that “we’re not going to go from zero miles an hour to 60 miles an hour in one offseason,” he left no doubt that the O’s are moving beyond their multi-year rebuild strategy.

“Our objective this winter is to add to the major league roster for the purpose of getting into the playoffs.  We think that this team is ready to, hopefully, incrementally take steps forward.  We’re in win-now mode.”

This means adding some established big league talent to a roster that is still pretty young and short on experience.  However, between these younger players and other top prospects coming up from a deep minor league pipeline, Elias noted that “we have internal players at almost every spot that we think are interesting, and I think that provides us with some flexibility with which players we go after.  We’ve got some positional flexibility with our current group and that makes for a scenario where we don’t have a very specific recipe of which positions the players have to come in.”

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored some of Baltimore’s options in his recent Offseason Outlook piece, such as an infield picture that has Gunnar Henderson (who could play third base, second base, or shortstop) as the only true sure thing heading into 2023.  On paper, the Orioles could stand pat with a starting infield of Henderson, Jorge Mateo, Ramon Urias, and Ryan Mountcastle, with the latter three players perhaps somewhat acting as placeholders until the next wave of infield prospects are ready.  Or, Baltimore could acquire a new everyday option at one of the infield spots, perhaps by trading from that infield surplus.

The rotation is perhaps an easier fit for a new veteran, especially since Jordan Lyles’ club option was declined.  As Elias noted, “we’ve got a lot of interesting starters.  But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters.  If we’re able to go out this winter and get more veteran certainty, that would be big.  We’re going to be out in the market for that, for sure.”

Re-signing Lyles also isn’t out of the question, as Elias reiterated that the Orioles’ decision to decline the right-hander’s $11MM option was more about timing than any dissatisfaction with Lyles’ performance.  “This is a big business with big money, and sometimes it just doesn’t line up at the date that we have to make these decisions,” Elias said.  “For us, with this contract with this club option, it was the fifth day after the World Series and we just weren’t ready to bring him back in that way in that point in time….I think that he’s going to have a very good free agent experience himself, and we’ll just stay in touch because I know he liked it here and we liked having him.”

Orioles Decline Club Option On Jordan Lyles

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12:55pm: The Orioles confirmed that Lyles’ option has indeed been declined.

12:47pm: The Orioles have declined their $11MM club option on Jordan Lyles, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll instead be paid a $1MM buyout and become a free agent.

Despite coming off a pair of rough seasons in Texas, Lyles landed a surprisingly strong $7MM guarantee with Baltimore just prior to the league’s implementation of last winter’s 99-day lockout. The veteran righty, who just turned 32 a couple weeks ago, gave the O’s everything they could’ve reasonably hoped for and generally succeeded in turning that modest investment into a bargain.

Through a team-high 179 innings, Lyles posted a 4.42 ERA with an 18.6% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a 40.2% ground-ball rate. The innings were particularly vital for a Baltimore club that was generally relying on young, unproven arms who cycled through the other four rotation spots behind Lyles. The stability he provided the team every fifth day both helped to spare the bullpen and to more effectively manage some of the workloads of an otherwise largely untested group of rotation candidates.

As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored recently, that steadying performance gave the team genuine cause to contemplate picking up Lyles’ option. While a net $10MM commitment (when accounting for the buyout) in the first week of the offseason would be aggressive for a pitcher who’s typically been more of a back-of-the-rotation arm, the O’s are still lacking in rotation certainty and have already pledged to increase payroll in 2023. Doling out a one-year pact to a veteran righty who drew heaps from a young staff that considered him a mentor and clubhouse leader might’ve been a defensible decision — particularly if Lyles were able to replicate his 2022 performance.

Instead, Lyles will return to the open market, likely in search of a multi-year commitment this time around. It stands to reason that, after landing a $7MM guarantee on the heels of a pair of dismal seasons with the Rangers, he might indeed be able to land a two-year deal with a vastly better performance now under his belt. It’s also possible that Lyles could yet return to the O’s — perhaps at a lower annual rate. Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun tweets that the Orioles issued a statement that while they preferred to let the pitching market develop rather than exercise Lyles’ option at this time, they’ll remain in touch with him and will not rule out a return at a later date.

Though he’s just 32 years old, Lyles already has more than 11 years of Major League service time under his belt. Selected by the Astros with the No. 38 overall pick back in 2008, he ranked among the sport’s top pitching prospects during his minor league days and ascended to the Majors before he’d even turned 21. It’s arguable that the ’Stros rushed him to the Majors, as he never really found his footing early on and still has a career track record featuring more valleys than peaks.

Still, Lyles had success with the Padres in 2018, with the Brewers in 2018-19, and now with the Orioles in 2022. He’s been a durable source of solid innings for the bulk of the past five seasons, which should make him an appealing option for teams that, as the 2022 Orioles were, are on the lookout for a veteran rotation stabilizer with a good chance to make 30-plus starts and generally keep the team in the game.  That may not sound like a glamorous role, but average innings have value — and teams pay for them every offseason.

The Opener: Click, Option Decisions, White Sox

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As the offseason continues to chug through it’s earliest stages, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Will James Click Continue As Houston’s GM?

While Dusty Baker has accepted a one-year contract extension as Astros manager, GM James Click did not do the same when owner Jim Crane offered him a one-year extension of his own, telling reporters he is “in discussions” regarding a new contract. While it’s something of a shock that the World Series-winning general manager wouldn’t receive a multi-year extension offer, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, there has long been speculation of Crane looking for a change in the front office, which is only further fueled by reports that he shot down a deal for Cubs catcher Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. Heyman suggests that the Astros may have interest in David Stearns, a former Houston executive who recently stepped down from his president of baseball operations position with Milwaukee. Stearns is still under contract with the Brewers for 2023, however, so the Astros would likely need to make a minor trade along the lines of the deal between the Cubs and Red Sox to send Theo Epstein to Chicago after the 2011 season if they are to acquire his services for the 2023 season. It’s also worth noting that Stearns definitively stated upon stepping back as president he plans to remain in Milwaukee and spend more time with family.

2. Option Decisions Continue To Linger

On the eve of the deadline for options decisions, a few notable ones still linger. Perhaps the most notable player in the bunch is longtime Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, on whom the club faces a $14MM decision on. A strong second half made what once seemed like an easy decision to decline the option much less clear cut. That being said, with players like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch waiting in the wings, the Dodgers may prefer their younger internal options going forward. A few clubs also having intriguing option decisions to make in the rotation, most notably the Mets on Carlos Carrasco and the Orioles on Jordan Lyles. Both teams are relatively thin on proven rotation arms (the Mets thanks to other potential free-agent departures), so locking up a starter for 2023 could make sense for either club. That said, the $10MM the Orioles would spend on Lyles may be better served allocated to another starter with, perhaps, a higher ceiling, while the Mets may prefer to search for a younger option for their rotation than Carrasco, who will play 2023 at age 36. Aside from Carrasco, the Mets have Max Scherzer, 38, under contract for next season and are reportedly expressing interest in reunions with Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt, who are both in their mid-thirties.

3. White Sox Have Plenty Of Needs This Offseason

After a disappointing 81-81 season and with many holes to fill on the roster, the White Sox will need to be active this offseason. In addition to longtime first baseman Jose Abreu hitting free agency, outfielder AJ Pollock declined his player option in a surprising move, and Chicago declined to exercise their option on second baseman Josh Harrison. While these option decisions have saved the club some money (Pollock’s decision in particular saves Chicago $8MM), they still might not have a lot to spend this offseason. RosterResource estimates their 2023 payroll to be just over $174MM, not far below their all-time record payroll of $194MM in 2022. The Athletic’s James Fegan notes that while Hahn has expressed confidence in top prospect Oscar Colas as an outfield regular in 2023, he similarly noted the possibility that Eloy Jimenez will spend more time at DH going forward, leaving the club in position to pursue outfield options regardless of Colas’s readiness for an everyday major league role, particularly with Pollock’s departure meaning their best internal fourth outfielder is Adam Engel. Given most of the Chicago lineup is right-handed, an outfielder who can hit from the left side, such as Joc Pederson, or the switch-hitting Jurickson Profar, would make sense as a target. As for second base, Chicago’s dearth of production at the position in recent years makes them an obvious fit for Jean Segura, but a lower-cost option such as Adam Frazier could also make sense.

The Orioles’ First Key Offseason Decision

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The Orioles enter the offseason fresh off their first winning season since 2016. Baltimore’s surprisingly competitive year wasn’t enough to earn them the longshot playoff bid with which they flirted for a couple months, but they did snap a streak of four consecutive last place finishes during 162-game seasons.

For the first time in a while, the O’s head into the winter looking to build out a promising big league roster. Much of that lifting figures to be on the pitching staff, as Baltimore has broken in a number of players on an increasingly strong position player core. The starting rotation is the big question mark, as it was comprised mainly of unproven hurlers. The Orioles finished 21st in rotation ERA (4.35), and while the group was better at preventing runs in the second half of the season, it never featured impact high-strikeout arms.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias and his front office will surely add to that group this offseason, and the expected arrival of top prospect Grayson Rodriguez early next year will add a high-octane internal arm to the mix. Before considering upgrades, however, the Orioles will have to decide whether to retain their 2022 innings leader. Baltimore holds an $11MM option over right-hander Jordan Lyles. That comes with a $1MM buyout, leaving Elias and his staff with a net $10MM decision.

Lyles agreed to terms on a $7MM guarantee with the O’s in the waning seconds before last offseason’s lockout, finalizing the contract after the work stoppage. It was a somewhat surprising move by Baltimore, with Lyles coming off successive ERA’s of 7.02 and 5.15 during his two seasons with the Rangers. The O’s clearly valued his capacity to soak up innings at the back of a rotation, however, and he stepped back into that role in Baltimore.

The right-hander took all 32 starts through the rotation at Camden Yards, the only pitcher on the team to start more than 23 games. He tossed 179 innings, ranking 29th in the majors in that category. Lyles’ rate stats still weren’t great, but they did mark an improvement over his work in Texas. He posted a 4.42 ERA, striking out a below-average 18.6% of batters faced but only walking 6.7% of opponents. Home run issues that had plagued him in Arlington weren’t nearly as problematic in Baltimore.

It was presumably exactly the kind of performance the Orioles had hoped they’d receive when signing Lyles. The 4.42 ERA is his second-lowest mark over parts of 12 MLB seasons, while he just narrowly missed last year’s career high of 180 innings. A number of Baltimore’s younger pitchers raved throughout the season about Lyles’ clubhouse leadership. It’d have been hard for Elias and company to reasonably expect more from Lyles than what he seemingly provided both on the field and in the locker room.

Between those contributions and Baltimore’s need for rotation help, one can make a reasonable argument for keeping Lyles around. He’d be due a fairly modest raise over this year’s salary, but Elias has already indicated the Orioles plan to increase payroll. The GM pointed at an arbitration class that includes Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays as part of that spending hike, but there’ll still be a ton of room on next year’s books. Aside from the Lyles buyout, the only guaranteed commitment the O’s have for 2023 is a $2.975MM salary for John Means. Tendering contracts to all their arbitration-eligible players would add roughly $22.5MM, according to projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. That should still leave a lot of spending room for a team that, in Elias’ words, should “significantly escalate” payroll over this year’s roughly $44MM Opening Day mark.

Of course, one could argue for the O’s to use the extra $10MM to make a run at a more impactful starter than Lyles. Baltimore will enter next year with more realistic hopes at competing for a playoff spot than they did this past season. While Lyles did provide needed stability, his improved rate stats were still worse than average. The league average starter this year posted a 4.05 ERA with a 21.6% strikeout percentage, both a fair bit better than Lyles’ respective marks. He allowed hard contact at a higher-than-average clip for a fourth straight year.

Lyles also saw slight regression in his raw stuff. He lost a tick on his average fastball, which sat at 91.8 MPH after averaging 93 MPH last year. His breaking ball dipped over three ticks, from 83.3 MPH to 80 MPH. His swing-and-miss rates took a corresponding minor step back.

Free agency offers a number of mid-tier starting pitchers. Jameson Taillon, Mike Clevinger and Noah Syndergaard have all shown well in the past but didn’t post particularly impressive 2022 campaigns. Ross Stripling, José Quintana, Taijuan Walker (who’ll surely decline a $6MM player option with the Mets) and Michael Wacha fared well this year despite subpar strikeout rates, but each had an average or worse ’21 season. Johnny Cueto and Corey Kluber are former stars who each had productive seasons but will be limited to short-term deals based on their ages. There’d be various options for the Orioles to consider if they want to replace Lyles while signing a starter to a contract with an average annual value in the $10MM range, but most of that group would require a multi-year commitment. Whether to retain Lyles is the first major call Elias and his staff will have to make this winter, with option decisions required within five days of the end of the World Series.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

The Market For Rental Starters Is On Shaky Ground

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The starting pitchers that have received, and surely will continue to receive, the most attention in trade rumors are Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle. It’s not surprising, given that they’re all quality pitchers, have been in rumors for a long time and are currently playing for obvious sellers. They also each come with an extra year of control, making them doubly enticing. Why add an exciting new pitcher for just one postseason push when you can do it for two? MLBTR recently ranked the trade candidates and placed them #4, 5 and 6, respectively.

However, with upwards of a dozen teams looking to bolster their pitching staffs in the coming weeks, not all of them will succeed in grabbing one of that trio. In fact, with their extra control, there’s no guarantee any of them will be traded. Montas and Mahle are both dealing with minor injuries right now, and though both are expected to be well enough to pitch before the deadline, there’s always the possibility of the injury getting worse and scuttling trade hopes. Regardless, some teams are going to have to look farther down the list of trade candidates, which is where things get murky.

The top 50 list linked above featured six starters who are set to reach free agency at the end of the year: José Quintana at #7, Martín Pérez at #12, Chad Kuhl at #17, Jordan Lyles at #18, Noah Syndergaard at #21 and Mike Clevinger at #38. (Lyles isn’t a rental in the strictest sense, as he has an $11MM club option for next year with a $1MM buyout. But since the odds seem to be against that getting picked up, I’ve included him here.) That makes them a little less desired on the market, but also means the acquisition cost should be lower. Although that list was published less than two weeks ago, the sand has already started to shift a bit under this market, and could potentially do so again in the weeks to come.

Quintana was having an excellent start to his season but has slipped recently. When he landed that #7 spot on the list a couple of weeks ago, he had a 3.33 ERA. However, he’s had two miserable starts since then, allowing four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on July 1o, followed by six earned runs in five innings on July 15. His ERA has jumped up to 3.99 just from those two outings. Teams aren’t likely to radically alter their evaluation of a pitcher based on just two starts, especially with the latter taking place in Coors Field. But then again, Quintana’s strong first half was also a small sample, coming after a few years of ineffective work. He had a 4.68 ERA in 2019, then was limited to just ten innings in 2020 due to injury. Last year, he worked mostly as a reliever and put up a 6.43 ERA. He’s made 18 starts this year and two bad ones won’t completely undo the rest, but how much will a team value those 16 decent ones after years of mediocrity? Were those last two starts flukes or regression to the mean?

Pérez is in a similar boat, as he was out-pitching his track record in the early going but has come back down to earth of late. At the end of his start on June 5th, he had a 1.56 ERA but has a 4.54 since. He still has an excellent 2.68 mark on the season overall based on that strong start, but the recent rough patch raises questions. After eight straight seasons with an ERA between 4.38 and 6.22, has he suddenly turned a corner at the age of 31? Or was it a mirage that’s now fading from view? Either way, there’s also the extra complication that the Rangers might just hang onto Pérez and extend him.

Kuhl’s situation has some parallels as well, as he had a 3.17 ERA through his June 3 start but a 5.45 over his last seven outings. Further complicating matters is the fact that the Rockies seem to be leaning towards doing their thing that they do, holding onto obvious trade candidates and hoping to work out extensions. Last year, they didn’t trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray or C.J. Cron, despite all three heading towards free agency. They recouped a draft pick when Story rejected the qualifying offer and signed with the Red Sox, extended Cron but came up short in trying to hang onto Gray. This year, it seems like Kuhl might be this year’s Cron, as he’s apparently comfortable in Colorado and willing to stay beyond this season. Any team that wanted to acquire him would probably have to blow away the Rockies with an overpay.

As for Lyles, his situation has changed not so much because of his performance, but the rest of the team. When that list was published, the Orioles were 41-44. They were on a six-game win streak, but that seemed to be a flash in the pan of what would surely go down as another miserable season in Baltimore. Well, that six-game win streak eventually turned in a ten-gamer, and the O’s are now 46-46, just 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Does that make them change their deadline approach? Perhaps, perhaps not. The odds of a postseason berth are still low, with FanGraphs giving them a 1.4% chance. But with excited fans turning out to Camden Yards for the first time in years, would the club still pull the plug on deadline selling? Lyles was just signed this offseason and isn’t a fan favorite like Trey Mancini. But with his 4.76 ERA, he’s not likely to bring back much more than a lottery ticket prospect anyway. Perhaps the O’s would be better served to just hang onto those innings and hope that 1.4% number grows.

Unlike the Orioles, the Angels have only dug themselves into a deeper hole. At the time MLBTR’s rankings came out, they were seven games out of a playoff spot, theoretically one hot streak away from jumping right back into the mix. However, they’ve unfortunately gone the other way, slipping to 10 1/2 back. That should only solidify Syndergaard as a guaranteed trade chip. But like many of the other pitchers highlighted here, he hasn’t been at his best lately. He had a 3.53 ERA through mid-June but a 5.01 over his last four starts. That’s a small sample, but he hasn’t looked like himself this season. After only throwing two innings over 2020-2021 due to Tommy John surgery and with his velocity down from his pre-surgery form, it’s fair to wonder if there might be some fatigue setting in.

Clevinger is a unique case, compared to the other names on this list. The Padres aren’t looking to sell because they’re not competitive, quite the opposite. It’s because they are competitive that they are looking to use their rotation surplus to create payroll space in order to upgrade elsewhere without going over the luxury tax. Moving Clevinger would be one way to do it, though his $5.75MM CBT hit is much less than Blake Snell’s $10MM. From San Diego’s perspective, moving Snell is probably preferable for the extra breathing space. A team could certainly try to work out a Clevinger deal, but you’d be competing with whatever teams are offering for Snell, as well as any other Clevinger suitors.

There are a few other names to consider, of course, but all come with similar question marks. Arizona’s Zach Davies is on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Detroit’s Michael Pineda only recently returned from a broken finger and had his worst start of a generally underwhelming season just before the break. Mike Minor has an ERA north of 6.00 with the Reds.

All in all, there’s not a ton to bank on here. Any team that doesn’t pony up for Castillo, Montas or Mahle is going to be left with these options, all of whom come with question marks. There are other controllable starters who could be available, such as Oakland’s Paul Blackburn. But with three extra years of control, the A’s surely won’t just give him away. And he, too, has seen a downturn in performance over the last month (7.46 ERA over past five starts). We’re now less than two weeks until the August 2 trade deadline, so the remaining games for these pitchers will be magnified. With the expanded playoffs, there are still 17 teams that have at least a 29.7% chance to make the postseason, per FanGraphs. That has the potential for a situation with high demand and low supply in the days to come, bad news for those who need pitching but good news for those selling it.

Latest On Orioles’ Deadline Outlook

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The Orioles surprisingly enter deadline season with some questions about the course of action they could take over the next few weeks. Baltimore looked like a slam-dunk seller as recently as ten days ago, but an eight-game win streak that has pulled them within two games of a Wild Card spot at least raises the possibility of the club reconsidering that approach.

It’s unfamiliar territory for general manager Mike Elias, who has been overseeing a complete rebuild since he was hired in November 2018. The baseball operations leader acknowledged as much in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic yesterday, saying the O’s could be in position for “one of the more flexible trade deadlines that we’ve encountered.” Elias acknowledged the club’s playoff chances remain low given the strength of the AL East but noted the next few weeks of games could have an impact on the team’s plans.

Even if the O’s continue to play well through the end of the month, the front office is unlikely to push many chips in to add impending free agents. Both Rosenthal and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com float the possibility of Baltimore looking to acquire players under control beyond this season, though. Elias told Rosenthal the front office is of the belief the O’s “2023 picture is increasingly bright,” and Rosenthal writes that team officials have downplayed the chance of parting with controllable core pieces like Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays in the wake of their solid run.

The Orioles are one of a handful of teams in the middle-ground of the standings that could resist strict bucketing into “buyer” or “seller” territory. There’s room for the club to explore dealing away players on shorter-term contracts — particularly if they stumble over the next three weeks and fall a bit out of the playoff picture — while remaining open to opportunities to add more controllable talent. In such a scenario, first baseman Trey Mancini would seemingly be the top trade candidate, as he’s likely to decline his end of a mutual option and hit free agency at the end of the season.

Mancini is the only notable impending free agent on the roster, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com notes that starter Jordan Lyles could be made available as well. The right-hander signed a one-year, $7MM guarantee over the offseason. That deal contains an $11MM club option for next season, but that seems likelier to be bought out. Through 17 starts, Lyles has tossed 98 innings of 4.50 ERA ball. He’s thrown plenty of strikes but posted below-average strikeout (18.9%) and ground-ball (40.6%) rates. Lyles is a durable source of innings, and Kubatko writes he’s been a strong veteran mentor for the team’s younger starters. Nevertheless, the Orioles aren’t likely to take him off the table if they field offers on short-term veterans.

As for the possibility of simultaneously looking to add controllable talent, infield and/or rotation pickups could be areas of interest. Rosenthal suggests the O’s may be a fit for Blake Snell if the Padres look to deal a starter to free breathing room against the luxury tax. Whether San Diego is willing to subtract from its rotation depth remains to be seen, but the Friars have virtually no payroll space to accommodate midseason additions if they’re intent on not surpassing the base tax threshold.

San Diego is expected to seek outfield help this summer, and Rosenthal reports they’ve had interest in Baltimore’s Anthony Santander in the past. Santander is playing this season on a $3.15MM salary and is arbitration-eligible through 2024; Snell is counting for $10MM against the Friars’ tax ledger, although his actual salary is a bit higher at $13.1MM. He’s under contract for $16.6MM next year before hitting free agency. Baltimore seems unlikely to accept a straight Snell for Santander swap, but they have virtually no commitments on the books next season and could look into an opportunity to buy low on Snell as part of a larger deal.

Feinsand, meanwhile, hears industry chatter the O’s might try to make a push for Marlins starter Pablo López. Unlike Snell, López is eminently affordable ($2.45MM salary) and arbitration-eligible through 2024. It’s easy to see the appeal for Baltimore, but the vast majority of teams around the league would be involved in Miami were to make López available. The Fish entered play Tuesday four games back in the National League Wild Card race and don’t seem likely to shop the 26-year-old over the next few weeks anyhow.

In either event, Snell and López serve as examples of myriad possibilities Elias and his staff could consider. Baltimore probably won’t be motivated enough to outbid bona fide contenders for top-of-the-market trade candidates like Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, but they’re at least in position to entertain a wide range of outcomes for the first time in a long while.

East Notes: Castillo, Jays, Orioles, Marte, Kiermaier, Nationals

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Luis Castillo was a Blue Jays trade target last winter, and unsurprisingly, Toronto continues to have interest in Castillo’s services, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Though Castillo missed the first month of the season due to shoulder soreness, he has been in strong form with a 2.92 ERA over 71 innings, even if his Statcast numbers aren’t quite as reflective of top-notch performance.  Castillo’s walk rate and hard-contact numbers are only okay, though his strikeout rate (25.3%) is well above league average and he still has elite fastball velocity.

The Reds right-hander is one of the very best players (let alone pitchers) expected to be available as the deadline approaches, making him a natural fit for a Toronto club in sore need of pitching upgrades.  Between Hyun Jin Ryu’s Tommy John surgery and underwhelming performances from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, the faulty rotation has been the chief reason for the Jays’ struggles in the last month, which is why Nightengale writes that the Blue Jays “are expected to be the most aggressive team pursuing starting pitching help.”  Last summer’s trade for Berrios is an example of how the Toronto front office hasn’t been hesitant to pay a big price for a player they want and need, though the Blue Jays will face plenty of competition for Castillo’s services.

More from both the AL East and NL East…

  • Also from Nightengale, the Orioles’ surprisingly strong play seemingly hasn’t changed the club’s long-term plans, as Baltimore is “expected to unload” several notable veterans.  The list of names includes both impending free agents like Trey Mancini, Rougned Odor, and Jordan Lyles, plus more controllable players like Anthony Santander and All-Star closer Jorge Lopez.  It’s safe to assume that the price tag will be a lot higher for Lopez and Santander than the others, but regardless, the O’s likely aren’t going to change course and start thinking about a playoff push.
  • Starling Marte left Saturday’s game due to a groin injury, and Marte wasn’t in the Mets lineup on Sunday.  However, Marte is only day-to-day, as manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) that an MRI revealed only minor inflammation and no serious damage.  Marte has been a big contributor in his first year in New York, and his first-half performance earned him a slot on the NL All-Star team earlier today.  With this groin injury lingering, however, Marte might opt to skip the game to rest up over the break.
  • Kevin Kiermaier was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier today, marking the second time this month that a nagging hip injury has put the Rays outfielder on the shelf.  Kiermaier told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he received a cortisone shot during his first IL stint, but now that the issue has returned, he’ll be visiting a specialist to further explore the injury.  “There’s just a lot of unknowns right now with what’s to come….I don’t really know what the future holds, to be quite honest,” Kiermaier said, noting that surgery was a possibility.  A major procedure could quite possibly end Kiermaier’s season, and thus maybe his tenure with the Rays altogether, as 2022 is the final guaranteed year of his contract.  Kiermaier has spent all 13 of his pro seasons in the Tampa organization, though that tenure has involved several injury absences.
  • There hasn’t been much public information revealed about the Nationals’ possible sale, but billionaire Michael B. Kim is the first name linked to the list of potential buyers, according to Barry Svrluga and Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post.  Kim and another bidding group have met in person with team officials already, and a third group is also slated for in-person meetings later in July.  Though there seems to be an increasing feeling that the Lerner family will indeed sell the Nationals, it is still early in the process, since “as many as five or six individuals or groups are expected to meet with club officials.”
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