Now that Mark Trumbo has re-signed with the Orioles, all ten players who were issued qualifying offers last November have found landing spots for 2017. Based on the teams who gained and lost draft picks from these qualifying offer free agents, the order for the first round of the 2017 amateur draft has now been finalized.
The biggest takeaway from the updated order, of course, is how relatively static things have remained since the order was originally established at the end of the regular season. Of the 10 players who were issued the one-year, $17.2MM qualifying offers, two (Neil Walker, Jeremy Hellickson) accepted, and five others (Trumbo, Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Bautista, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner) re-signed with their original teams. It was a far cry from last offseason, when 20 players were issued qualifying offers and 11 switched teams.
Here’s how the first 30 picks in the draft will shake out, covering both the first round and the compensation round…
1. Twins
2. Reds
3. Padres
4. Rays
5. Braves
6. Athletics
7. Diamondbacks
8. Phillies
9. Brewers
10. Angels
11. White Sox
12. Pirates
13. Marlins
14. Royals
15. Astros
16. Yankees
17. Mariners
18. Tigers
19. Giants
20. Mets
21. Orioles
22. Blue Jays
23. Dodgers
24. Red Sox
25. Nationals
26. Rangers
27. Cubs
COMPENSATION ROUND (bonus picks given to teams who issued qualifying offers to players who signed elsewhere; picks are allotted in inverse order of 2015 record)
28. Blue Jays (for Edwin Encarnacion signing with the Indians)
29. Rangers (for Ian Desmond signing with the Rockies)
30. Cubs (for Dexter Fowler signing with the Cardinals)
Teams don’t easily part with first round picks under any circumstances, though this offseason’s QO market may have been particularly impacted by uncertainty surrounding the new collective bargaining agreement. Several of the game’s biggest spenders decided to largely sit out the free agent market for luxury tax purposes, plus a glut of first base/corner outfield/DH types in the market also contributed to Bautista, Trumbo and Encarnacion all receiving smaller deals than expected.
Encarnacion’s quiet market opened the door for the Indians to make a rare free agent splash, signing the slugger to a three-year, $60MM deal. The Tribe are clearly in win-now mode, and they felt that the chance to sign Encarnacion at a relative bargain price was worth giving up the 25th overall pick (Cleveland was originally selecting 27th, but their pick was bumped up after the Desmond and Fowler signings).
The Rockies originally held the 11th overall pick (the highest non-protected pick in the first round), so they single-handedly shifted the draft order when they rather surprisingly inked Desmond to a five-year, $70MM contract. Adding to the curiosity is the fact that the Rockies intend to use the athletic Desmond as a first baseman, though those plans could still change if Colorado deals from its outfield surplus before Opening Day. This signing could end up being widely debated for years, depending on how Desmond performs in Denver and who the White Sox select now that they have moved up to that 11th overall draft slot.
This will be the last offseason where business is conducted under these qualifying offer and draft compensation rules, thanks to the new CBA. Beginning next winter, players who have been issued a qualifying offer in the past are no longer eligible for another QO, which could bode well for players like Bautista, Hellickson and Walker. Teams that sign a QO free agent will no longer have to give up a first-rounder in compensation, though such signings will still some at a notable cost; the new rules will more closely tie qualifying offer free agents to the luxury tax, international draft pools and revenue-sharing systems.
MLB.com has the full order for the entire draft, including the order for the two Competitive Balance rounds, which respectively take place after the compensation round and the second round. Competitive Balance picks can be traded once the season begins, so there’s still a chance that the draft order could be further altered before teams start making their selections on June 12. The Rays hold the top Competitive Balance pick, drafting 31st overall.
Even though both picks are late in the first round, the having two first round picks could be big boosts for the Rangers and Cubs. Can’t wait for the draft… can’t wait for more baseball!!
Jays chop liver bud?
Well yeah, I was just throwing a couple of teams out as examples. Of course your Jays have a second pick as well.
Let’s go pitcher and pitcher for Cubs. Can’t wait to see Dylan cease in majors 101 heater.
Will he be ready by September? Or is he gonna be there to replace Lackey? For 2018?
If all goes well, Cease will be ready in 2019 or 2020.
Why do not indians have the first round pick?
Blue Jays get it for signing Encarnacion
Because they signed encarnacion
Oh i see
It seems like it would be more fair if the team that picks up the compensation pick be put in the draft position of the team that gave it up. Like the Cubs should be picking 16th, where the Cards would have been.
It’s what they used to do
Errrr not really. It has been deemed over the top as it is, which is why it’s now been altered.
It doesn’t make much sense for your compensation to depend on the signing team, I prefer the sandwich pick method
Is it just me or do folks think that the Rockies just don’t understand the pick compensation rules?
They used it to their advantage when the mets signed cuddyer a couple years back. Could be Walt Weiss’ doing more so than the front office since he was playing vets over rooks down the stretch.
They didn’t take advantage of anything. The Mets just made a dumb decision that helped the Rockies.
Yes, this. It seems the rockies have assembled a decent team despite their front office, not because of it.
The Rockies paying it forward?
Not that dumb. Cuddyer’s veteran presence a big help in getting Mets to 2015 WS. Nobody (including a big Mets fan like me) saw that coming. I’ll take a trip to the WS for a #1 pick. After all, #1 picks are supposed to help you get there, only many years in the future.
Kinda crazy that 7 of the 10 players to receive qualifying offers stayed with their old team.
Because a player can only get a QO once in his career now, this really took short term deals off the market for FAs looking for a new team. Can’t do what the Rangers did with Desmond last year anymore
yes you can lol. QO was around then too. it just didnt happen this year.
pretty sure desmond wasnt offered a QO. What the rangers did is what someone will do with Wieters this year.
Hahahahaha if the Rockies had just played a little worse in 2016 they would still have their first rounder. But we all know a few extra wins in a losing season are worth more than any draft pick, right Ray Ray?
Sadly, the Rox had a hot spell before the trade deadline, so Bridich decided to hold onto expendable pieces instead of dealing away said pieces for prospects and a greater chance at a worse record.
Bridich didn’t need to deal Blackmon or CarGo, but they could have dealt Mark Reynolds for a decent prospect, along with a bucket of balls for a few bullpen pieces, Nick Hundley and other irrelevant veterans.
This is the true issue with the Rockies: don’t disassemble to build a championship because fans may not come to games anymore. Instead, continue to be middling year-in-and-year-out so that decent money comes through the gates. It’s just not the way to run a franchise anymore.
Once you’ve lost one pick, why not sign another guy since the pick you’d lose next is less valuable? Kinda like the international FA market where, once teams go over their bonus pool, they spend even more knowing they can’t go big for the next two years as a penalty
Hi, Mark. Great work, as always.
Is there any way we can get a n educated/estimated look at what the draft order would be under the new collective bargaining rules?
Granted some teams may have gone about their offseason completely different, but it would be interesting to see the ramifications of those new rule changes.
(Probably not an easy task, but perhaps someone – if not at MLBTR, then maybe FanGraphs – might do this.)
The competitive balance pick is a joke for teams like Baltimore and St. Louis and for all clubs be limited to sandwich second round picks (i.e. Between the second and third rounds).
Don’t forget St. Louis gets several free picks because they are “small market” it worked in their favor last year when lackey and heyward got them picks .
Thanks Mark for putting this together and summing up. Its great to read something and “feel educated” by it afterward.
Cubs should have a pick for Chapman too but it is what it is.
Theo and Jed are gonna get 2 more gems. They need to scout pitching through. Draft heavy on pitching.
chapman was a mid season trade. they knew his contract was expiring, knew he would be expensive to resign, and knew he wouldnt bet them a pick. nothing to complain about.
Agreed. Everyone knew the rules. No pick for Chapman. Therefore the should not somehow get one now