Camp Battles: Minnesota Twins

Despite their rebuilding status, the Twins had a mostly uneventful offseason. The signing of Jason Castro and the two month barrage of Brian Dozier rumors headlined an otherwise quiet winter for new chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and new general manager Thad Levine, due in part to the fact that the Twins have a number of young, MLB-ready position players that they hope will cement themselves as core pieces in 2017.

Here’s a rundown of some of the spots that are up for grabs in the Twin Cities…

Starting Rotation (Fifth Spot)

Jose Berrios
Age: 22
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason
Options Remaining: 2

Trevor May
Age: 27
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2020-21 offseason.
Options Remaining: 1

Tyler Duffey
Age: 26
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2021-22 offseason.
Options Remaining: 2

Adalberto Mejia
Age: 23
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason.
Options Remaining: 2

Ryan Vogelsong
Age: 39
Throws: R
Contract Status: Signed minor league deal in January; $1MM base + $2.5MM of incentives; can opt out near end of Spring Training.
Options Remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent.

Nick Tepesch
Age: 28
Throws: R
Contract Status: Signed minor league deal in January; $1MM base salary
Options Remaining: 1

The Twins’ front four in the rotation won’t wow anyone on paper. But, barring injury, the quartet of Ervin Santana (their likely Opening Day starter), Hector Santiago, Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson figure to be assured spots.

Berrios is the sexy pick for the fifth spot in the rotation. The former No. 32 overall pick was long heralded as a top 50 prospect and reached the Majors with huge expectations in 2016. However, he was bombed for an astounding 52 runs in 58 1/3 innings. A rookie struggling is hardly uncommon, but Berrios’ excellent command and minor league dominance led many to project a high floor for him. He’ll look to right the ship in 2017 and prove that he belongs at the game’s top level.

Duffey and May have both had success as starters, but each struggled greatly in recent years. Duffey’s brilliant 2015 debut was followed up with a 6.43 ERA in 133 innings as a sophomore. ERA alternatives like xFIP and SIERA don’t feel there was a drastic downturn in his skill-based performance, but an enormous spike in his homer-to-flyball ratio caused his ERA to soar. May went from an intriguing starter to dominant reliever in 2015 when the Twins saw Glen Perkins go down with an injury. He’ll look to prove that he can hack it as a starter this year. If either or both of these arms miss out on the rotation gig, I can envision both in a relief role. May’s been a reliever since July 2015, and Duffey was a reliever in college.

Acquired in last year’s Eduardo Nunez trade with the Giants, Mejia has previously been billed as a top 100 prospect with a strong likeliehood of becoming a back-of-the-rotation arm. While prospect watchers have been less bullish on his ceiling, which may work against him, Mejia tossed 132 innings of 3.00 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A last season.

Vogelsong and Tepesch are decided long shots to make the roster, let alone the rotation. The depth is nice to have, but both seem far likelier to open the season as a swingman if they’re on the 25-man roster at all.

Prediction: The Twins’ hope is almost certainly that Berrios makes the decision an easy one. He brings the highest ceiling of the bunch and has dominated Triple-A (2.79 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 in 190 innings). I expect him to claim the job.

Shortstop

Jorge Polanco
Age: 23
Bats: B
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason.
Options Remaining: None

Eduardo Escobar
Age: 28
Bats: S
Contract Status: Signed one-year, $2.6MM deal to avoid arbitration; controllable through 2018.
Options Remaining: None

Ehire Adrianza
Age: 27
Throws: B
Contract Status: Signed one-year, $600K deal to avoid arbitration; controllable through 2020.
Options Remaining: None

Danny Santana
Age: 26
Bats: B
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become free agent until at least the 2020-21 offseason.
Options Remaining: None

The Twins are hoping that the switch-hitting Polanco, who hit .282/.332/.424 with four homers in 270 plate appearances last year, is a long-term piece in their infield. The former top 100 prospect has hit at every stop in his minor league career, and the only question surrounding him is his defensive home. Shortstop isn’t Polanco’s best position, but Miguel Sano is at third base and Brian Dozier remains entrenched at second base. The Twins could bounce Polanco around the diamond, but regular at-bats will be a priority.

The veteran Escobar, like Santana, is former Opening Day shortstop for the Twins but is coming off his worst season in the Majors. He’s well-versed at short, third, and second and has even mixed in a bit of outfield time, so he’s all but assured of a fairly healthy utility role even if he doesn’t win the regular shortstop job.

Adrianza, claimed off waivers earlier in February, might offer the best defensive option of the bunch but has yet to show any offensive potency in the Majors. His ability to handle multiple infield spots could make him a nice utility option, though the Twins could deem it redundant to carry Adrianza and Escobar if neither wins the starting role.

While the out-of-options Santana could certainly win a bench role and see time in both the infield and outfield, he’d likely only be looked at as a shortstop option with a huge spring and an injury to one of his competitors. The 26-year-old had a monster rookie season three years ago (.319/.353/.472), but that was buoyed by a .405 BABIP and never looked sustainable.

Prediction: Polanco is part of the Twins’ future, whether it’s at shortstop, second base or third base. Getting him everyday at-bats and regular exposure to big league pitching should be a priority. He’ll be the Opening Day starter barring a truly disastrous Spring Training.*

Designated Hitter

Kennys Vargas
Age: 26
Bats: B
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2021-22 offseason.
Options Remaining: 1

Byung Ho Park
Age: 30
Bats: R
Contract Status: Owed $9.25MM through 2019 season (including buyout of 2020 team option); has already been outrighted off 40-man roster
Options Remaining: 3

Robbie Grossman
Age: 27
Bats: B
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2020-21 offseason.
Options Remaining: None

Park raked for the first six weeks of the 2016 season but showed a troubling strikeout tendency all the while. Whether his rapid decline was due to the wrist injury that ultimately required surgical repair or due to Major League pitchers exploiting holes in his swing, the results were poor enough that Park went unclaimed on waivers after being surprisingly designated for assignment this winter.

Vargas has shown glimpses of promise at the Major League level but hasn’t replicated his prodigious Triple-A numbers. The switch-hitter has been significantly better from the right side of the dish in his short career. There’s huge power in Vargas’ swing — 10 homers, .270 ISO in 177 MLB plate appearances last season — but he’s also fanned in more than 29 percent of his plate appearances and been ineffective against right-handed pitching.

Grossman will make the team in some capacity after hitting an impressive .280/.386/.443 in 389 plate appearances upon signing a minor league deal with the Twins last May. His production was bolstered by a likely unsustainable .364 BABIP, but he walked at a 14 percent clip and should be a solid on-base option. Grossman’s glovework in left field drew abysmal ratings from UZR and DRS, but the switch-hitter could still serve as a right-handed complement to corner outfielders Eddie Rosario and/or Max Kepler. And, if both Park and Vargas tank in Spring Training, there could be more regular at-bats for Grossman at the DH slot as well.

Prediction: Park could win the job back with an eye-opening March performance, but the pick here is that Vargas, who is already on the 40-man, opens the year with the job. (Bonus prediction: Park forces his way back into the picture by early summer.)

Bullpen (Two to three spots)

J.T. Chargois
Age: 26
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason.
Options Remaining: 2

Michael Tonkin
Age: 27
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2020-21 offseason.
Options Remaining: None

Justin Haley
Age: 25
Throws: R
Contract Status: Rule 5 pick; must remain on 25-man roster to remain with organization (barring a trade)
Options Remaining: 3

Taylor Rogers
Age: 26
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason.
Options Remaining: 2

Craig Breslow
Age: 36
Throws: L
Contract Status: Signed minor league deal with $1MM base salary.
Options Remaining: If added to 40-man roster, cannot be optioned without consent.

Mason Melotakis
Age: 25
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason.
Options Remaining: 2

Buddy Boshers
Age: 28
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2021-22 offseason.
Options Remaining: 2

Ryan O’Rourke
Age: 28
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2021-22 offseason.
Options Remaining: 3

Other Candidates: May, Duffey, Vogelsong, Tepesch (depending on the outcome of the rotation battle)

The number of spots that are open for competition depends on the health of closer Glen Perkins, who missed nearly all of 2016 due to shoulder surgery, as well as the outcome of the rotation battle. If Perkins is able to start the season, he’ll join Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly and Matt Belisle as virtual locks in the Minnesota relief corps. And if May and/or Duffey miss out on the fifth spot in the rotation, either could join the relief corps. Even Vogelsong and Tepesch could be considered for long relief work.

Chargois’ outstanding numbers in Triple-A (1.80 ERA, 41-to-8 K/BB ratio in 35 innings) and near-100-mph fastball should give him a legitimate chance. He was shelled in his MLB debut (five runs in two-thirds of an inning) but logged a 2.82 ERA in 22 1/3 innings from that point forth. Tonkin is out of minor league options and punched out better than 10 hitters per nine innings last year, though an extreme penchant for surrendering long balls tanked his ERA.

Rogers, Breslow, Melotakis, Boshers and O’Rourke represent options to serve as southpaws in Paul Molitor’s bullpen. Rogers is probably the front-runner, coming off a 3.96 ERA, 9.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 61 innings as a rookie last season. Breslow’s revamped delivery got a bit of hype this winter, but the results will dictate whether he’s added to the 40-man roster.

Boshers posted a 2.84 FIP in 36 innings with Minnesota last year and an even more impressive 37-to-7 K/BB ratio in 36 innings. He struggled with men on base, though, leading to a 56.7 percent strand rate and a 4.24 ERA. O’Rourke was outrighted last year but fought his way back to the 40-man roster. He’s held lefties to a putrid .134/.244/.239 batting line in 80 career PAs. Righties have been more of an issue, though he’s held his own. Melotakis has yet to crack the big leagues, but he logged a strong 2.97 ERA with 11.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in Double-A last season.

As a Rule 5 pick, Haley faces an uphill battle. The Twins surely like the idea of hiding him in a long relief role, as they did with Pressly several years ago. However, the number of MLB ready arms — this write-up hasn’t even factored in names like Trevor Hildenberger, Nick Burdi and Jake Reed, who could emerge later in 2017 — is problematic for him.

Prediction: May returns to the ’pen. The Twins’ new front office will want to get one more look at Tonkin, giving him the edge over the remaining right-handed candidates. (Chargois will be waiting to take his spot should he falter and will be the next in line if Perkins isn’t ready for Opening Day.) Among the lefties, Breslow and Rogers will open the year as Molitor’s primary setup options. The Twins can afford to open the year with an eight-man bullpen to delay the decision a bit, as teams often don’t need a fifth starter in the earlygoing, and Berrios can be optioned to start the season.

Closer prediction: Perkins gets the job back if he can demonstrate his health. Otherwise, Kintzler opens the year in the ninth inning.

Backup Catcher

Chris Gimenez
Age: 34
Bats: R
Contract Status: Signed minor league contract in January.
Options Remaining: None

John Ryan Murphy
Age: 25
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2020-21 offseason.
Options Remaining: 1

Mitch Garver
Age: 26
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason.
Options Remaining: 3

Three solid defenders that hit from the right side of the dish will give the Twins a number of options. Garver has just 22 games in Triple-A, though, and could use some more seasoning despite a strong minor league performance in 2016. Murphy frames well but didn’t hit in the Majors or in the minors last season. Gimenez is known and well-liked by both Falvey and Levine. And, as a plus defender who hits lefties well, he makes a logical pairing with Castro.

Prediction: Gimenez wins the job.

*Correction: The original version of this post incorrectly stated that Polanco had an option remaining.

[RELATED: Minnesota Twins Depth Chart]