Ever since Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a massive extension with the Blue Jays back in April, Kyle Tucker has been viewed as the consensus top player in this winter’s free agent class. It’s not hard to see why, as he’s a four-time All-Star, a former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award winner, and the fifth-place finisher in AL MVP voting in 2023. That resume is what convinced the Cubs to trade All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes, top prospect Cam Smith, and young starter Hayden Wesneski to the Astros last winter in order to acquire Tucker in his final year of club control.
It’s a decision that paid off in a big way during the first half of the season. Through the end of June, Tucker slashed an phenomenal .291/.395/.537 across 83 games. Among qualified hitters, only Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Shohei Ohtani, and Will Smith had a higher wRC+ than Tucker’s 158 during that stretch. While it wasn’t quite on par with the otherworldly 179 wRC+ Tucker posted in 78 games with the Astros last year, it was still an undeniably dominant showing that led to many wondering if he would join Guerrero and Juan Soto in clearing the $500MM benchmark upon hitting free agency this winter.
Once the calendar flipped to July, however, things changed for Tucker in a hurry. In 163 plate appearances since the start of July, Tucker has hit just .189/.325/.235 with a wRC+ of just 72. He’s tallied just four extra-base hits in that time and has gone a full month without hitting a home run at this point after launching his last long ball on July 19. Tucker’s slump has been lengthy enough and severe enough that club manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) yesterday that he plans to give Tucker “some days off” in hopes of helping him reset and get back on track.
That the Cubs are sitting a player who looked like a legitimate MVP candidate just over a month ago is inherently shocking, but it’s hard not to see why given his recent performance. It’s fair to wonder how Tucker’s deep struggles of late may have impacted his market in free agency, as well. After all, a major calling card for Tucker has been his consistency and reliability as a middle-of-the-order force. An extended slump such as this one puts a hole in that narrative, especially when combined with him missing half of last season due to injury.
When looking at other outfielders who signed mega deals in free agency, Tucker’s resume doesn’t quite measure up. He no longer seems likely to wind up with an absurd platform season like Judge (nine years, $360MM) put together in 2022, and he’s three years older than Bryce Harper (13 years, $330MM) was when he reached free agency. The inflation top-level MLB contracts have seen in recent years should help Tucker, especially as compared to Harper’s contract from all the way back in the 2018-19 offseason, but if his season doesn’t turn around going forward he may not even crack the $400MM threshold in free agency, much less $500MM.
So, will Tucker be able to turn things around? There’s certainly some reasons for optimism. Most notably, his discipline at the plate has remained elite even during his slump. Since July 1, Tucker has actually walked (16.0%) more often than he’s struck out (15.3%). His .224 BABIP during that period suggests some positive regression could be on the way in terms of batted ball luck, but even underlying metrics like hard-hit rate (27.9%) and barrel rate (2.7%) suggest he’s earned his lack of power production. There’s been speculation in some circles that a finger injury suffered when sliding into second base could be the cause of his power outage, but that’s a somewhat dubious claim between Tucker himself suggesting his finger has not caused him problems at the plate and the fact that he had a 14.7% barrel rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate in 24 June games following his return from the injury.
It would be a shock if Tucker truly batted below the Mendoza line with virtually no power the rest of the way this year. He’s been a bottom 20 player in baseball since July 1 in terms of wRC+, and it’s practically unheard of for a player of his caliber to perform that poorly for that long when not dealing with some sort of physical issue or age-related decline. With that said, it’s worth noting that Tucker’s recent slump has actually put his 2025 numbers more or less in line with his career norms. Tucker is hitting .261/.374/.447 with a 131 wRC+ overall this year. Through the end of the 2023 season, Tucker was a career .272/.345/.507 (132 wRC+) hitter.
Those slash lines are awfully similar, and it stands to reason that it’s at least possible Tucker’s incredible 78-game 2024 campaign was simply an outlier. On the other hand, it must also be noted that Tucker put together 709 plate appearances between the start of the 2024 season and the end of June 2025 where he hit a combined .290/.401/.559 with a wRC+ of 168. Only Judge (218), Ohtani (179), and Soto (171) posted better numbers during that time frame. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Tucker is able to recapture some of that production over the season’s final six weeks and ends up with a strong platform year, even if it doesn’t quite reach the heights that looked possible two months ago.
What do MLBTR readers think is in store for Tucker over the final weeks of the 2025 campaign? Will he be able to turn things around and quell any doubts created by his recent struggles? Will his slump continue and push his season numbers lower than they are now? Or will his numbers settle in as he levels off somewhere close to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:
No matter the season, how it turns out. If Tucker is not in Pinstripes by January, it’s a complete Cashman failure. Bye-bye, Goldy, and Grisham. Bellinger 1B and Tucker LF. Someone, please take Stanton. Judge the DH and Spencer Jones in RF with Dominez in CF. I’m trying to have positive thoughts for once
Good luck finding someone to take Stanton
Aloha mlbnyy, I said this at the time of the trade, Tucker doesn’t profile the best in a Wrigley or San Francisco Giant’s park. Difficult, plus he played his whole career in a nice environment controlled park in Houston. Being out in the elements in Wrigley in March/April can be brutal, then the heat and humidity in the summer months. He’s a good player. I do think he profiles well in NY, Boston and LA. Also, his defense is regressing some and many believe he eventually is a DH only. So LF in NY could be very good for him. I believe he will move on and wish him well. Mahalo!
Goods points. Playing in Wrigley as you stated can be tough. Tucker also played with a strong supporting cast in Houston. Altuve, Bergman to mention just a couple. The guy looks totally lost right now. Interesting to see how the rest of the season rolls for him heading into free agency.
Just saw an article where Gollum said he wishes the Cubs were more like the Brewers. Kind of says it all when he’s the reason they’re not.
newsweek.com/sports/mlb/cubs-boss-says-he-wishes-h…
What he said was;
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a streak like this,” Hoyer said, per The Athletic’s Jon Greenberg. “I mean, give them a lot of credit. I wish we were on that kind of streak. We’re not. They are.”
Don’t let facts get in the way of a troll post.
The streak is historic. I can’t find the chart, but iirc not since the 1930s has a team done what the Brewers have accomplished this year. It’s even better than their spectacular 2018 finish.
He will be a Dodger and the Yankee fans will be disappointed.
Kinda makes you wonder whose idea it REALLY was to give Counsell 8 million a year doesn’t it? Things that make me go Hmmmmmmmmmmm………..
Bellinger is basically the same player as Tucker and is a lot cheaper and almost as good
While Tucker’s lefty swing fits well in yankee stadium I think the dodgers or Phillies want Tucker more
I imagine he’ll finish the year like the rest of us, either attending a new years party, or possibly watching the festivities on TV.
Or sound asleep before the ball drops?
He’ll turn it around somewhat, only because it behooves him to finish the year strong especially when it’s a contract year. I’m disappointed with his performance to say the least…
If he homers in October, all will be forgiven.
If he homers in October it will probably be in the AFL.
This makes me sad
Every single one of these polls, the mediating position wins. I voted slump continues just to be different. Who really knows, for real.
its the entire cubs team regressing .. not just one player… something going on in the organization ..
Sometimes it’s just a Cubs thing. I’m old enough to remember a lot of awful baseball and decisions by the Cubs. This season is now turning into 1969 and 1977. Time to start thinking about the Fall Guy. Obviously it won’t be Counsel or Hoyer. Hawkins? Maybe. But Hoyer and Hawkins are joined at the hip.
Wonder if free agency has gotten into his head.
It’s hard to write off Tucker’s slump to exhaustion – it started on 7/1. No apparent injury in play. Giving him time off is about the only thing Counsell can do. Cubs gave up a lot to get him, and it should be interesting how this affects their efforts to re-sign him this winter. If Caissie kills it the rest of the way, Cubs may not even try to bring Tucker back.
The Cubs were never going to try to get Tucker back unless they get a great deal. I think they will trade Suzuki and Happ if he will waive no trade and have an outfield of PCA, Caissie and Alcantara.
Who in their right mind would want Ian Happ? It’s also doubtful that any team other than one that’s in the middle of a rebuild would have two rookies in the outfield.
Why did they never try moving him down in the lineup or platooning him for a few weeks? Seems wild that their first move is to outright bench him.
Giants are going to be all in on this dude in the offseason.
God I hope some other stupid team is. I’ll take the draft pick at this point.
Haven’t been following his slump, but see him as an upgrade to the Giants current situation! Ha
I got to think mechanical adjustments post-injury may be contributing to his slump. This could mean compensatory changes in his swing are reducing his power output.
Tucker did not “look like a legitimate MVP candidate a little over a month ago.” Why has everyone been so hypnotized by this very-average player?
The truth is this: When the Cubs got back from Japan and started “the North American portion of the schedule,” he squared up the ball a lot and had a good two-three weeks. Then he went into a slump, and then he had a fairly lengthy period where he didn’t get a lot of hits but walked a lot, enabling him to maintain a decent OBP even though he wasn’t really helping the team much.
Now, for almost two months, he hasn’t been hitting at all or even walking much. He rolls over ground balls to the right side in most of his at-bats. He has a long, loopy swing that reminds Cubs fans of Jason Heyward at his worst. Tucker has been pretty close to an unmitigated disaster.
There is no real evidence that his hand injury has had anything to do with his problems. I think part of it is that he was used to the controlled environment of Daikin Field, and had trouble adjusting to playing half his games in a real ballpark with real weather, and then decided he was too good for it all. I imagine it would be hard to hit with your nose that high up in the air.
I will laugh at whichever team is dumb enough to overpay him this winter. He might have to accept a “pillow contract.” Don’t be surprised if he winds up back in Houston, from the safety of which he will rip the Cubs and their fans. The feeling will be mutual.