Camp Battles: New York Yankees

The vast majority of the Yankees’ roster looks set as the season approaches, but the retooling franchise still has a few areas that will need clarification during spring training. In most cases, relatively young players are vying for the youth-oriented Yankees’ open jobs.

Starting Rotation (two spots)
Luis Severino
Age: 23
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason
Options remaining: 2

Chad Green
Age: 25
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason
Options remaining: 2

Bryan Mitchell
Age: 25
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason
Options remaining: 1

Luis Cessa
Age: 24
Throws: R
Contract status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason
Options remaining: 2

Adam Warren
Age: 29
Throws: R
Contract status: One year, $2.29MM (second of three seasons of arbitration eligibility)
Options remaining: 2

The Yankees entered the winter with Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and C.C. Sabathia as their only established starters and exited the offseason in the same situation. Only Tanaka is a top-end option at this point, which made it all the more surprising that the Yankees didn’t bring in more veterans either through free agency or via trade. But it’s clear they’re committed to giving a cadre of unproven right-handers opportunities to seize the last two spots in their rotation this season. Severino, who wasn’t able to follow an outstanding 11 starts in 2015 with a quality showing last season, leads the way.

In terms of run prevention, Severino bombed as a starter over 47 2/3 innings (8.50 ERA), but he did provide some hope with 77 1/3 frames of 3.49 ERA ball out of the Yankees’ Triple-A rotation and another 23 1/3 innings with a microscopic ERA (0.39) as a major league reliever. Despite Severino’s brilliance from the bullpen last year, the Yankees understandably would prefer for the former high-end prospect to develop into a capable starter, so they’re going to leave him in that role for the time being.

Among Severino’s fellow hopeful starters, Cessa threw the most innings last season (70 1/3) and turned in 51 2/3 frames of 4.01 ERA pitching as a starter. The former farmhand of the Mets and Tigers also yielded just 1.39 walks per nine as a starter, which helped offset a below-average K/9 (6.1).

Green, whom the Yankees acquired with Cessa in a 2015 trade with Detroit, had more difficulty preventing runs last year than Cessa did (5.94 ERA in 36 1/3 innings as a starter). However, Green averaged a robust 94 mph on his fastball, induced whiffs on 12.3 percent of swings and registered an outstanding 10.9 K/9 from the rotation.

Mitchell’s average velocity was similar to Green’s in 2016 (93 mph), though he only totaled five appearances – all starts – after April toe surgery knocked him out for the first few months of the year. While Mitchell put up a stellar 3.24 ERA and an above-averaged 48.2 percent ground-ball rate during his 25 innings, he also tallied more walks than strikeouts (12 to 11) and allowed home runs on an unsustainable 3.7 percent of fly balls.

The sole member of the Yankees’ potential back-end starter contingent who isn’t at a prime age is Warren, who will turn 30 in August. However, Warren could be the only one who’s guaranteed to make the major league roster, as manager Joe Girardi said Saturday the ex-Cub will be on the Yankees’ 25-man as either a starter or reliever (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Nearly all of Warren’s career has been spent as a reliever (205 appearances, 21 starts), and it’s likely he’ll again fill that role at the outset of 2017. The normally competent Warren will try to bounce back from a 65 1/3-inning season in which he threw to a 4.68 ERA and 5.12 FIP, both of which represented enormous drop-offs from his career numbers (3.63 and 3.96).

Prediction: This is a difficult one to forecast, but Severino is loaded with upside and should be a leading candidate to garner a spot. The Yankees could allow Severino to sink or swim in the majors in the early going, and if he scuffles again, they’d be able to reassess whether to try him in the bullpen again or give him more minor league seasoning as a starter. And we’ll also bet on the bat-missing Green to join Tanaka, Sabathia, Pineda and Severino.

Right Field
Aaron Judge
Age: 24
Bats: R
Contract status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason
Options remaining: 3

Aaron Hicks
Age: 27
Bats: S
Contract status: One year, $1.35MM (first of three seasons of arbitration eligibility)
Options remaining: Out of options

The Yankees acquired Hicks from the Twins last winter with the hope that he’d build on a promising 2015 in which he hit .256/.323/.398 with 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases across 97 games and 390 plate appearances. But Year 1 of Hicks’ tenure in the Bronx was a disaster, as he slashed a paltry .217/.281/.336 and swiped just three bags over 361 trips to the plate. The switch-hitting Hicks was particularly ineffective against lefties (.161/.213/.271 in 127 PAs), which hadn’t been the case during his three years in Minnesota.

Hicks’ struggles in 2016 helped open the door for Judge, who logged a woeful .179/.263/.435 line with 42 strikeouts in his 95-PA major league debut. The 6-foot-7, 255-pound Judge packs a wallop, though, and has held his own in the minors since the Yankees selected him in the first round of the 2013 draft. As a result, Judge currently ranks among the game’s top 50 prospects on lists by ESPN’s Keith Law (44th) and MLB.com (45th), while Baseball Prospectus (63rd) and Baseball America (90th) also regard him highly.

Prediction: Judge wins the starting job, but the out-of-options, cannon-armed Hicks stays in the fold as New York’s top reserve outfielder.

Bullpen (one to two spots)
Jon Niese
Age: 30
Throws: L
Contract Status: Minor league contract ($1.25MM on active roster)
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent

Chasen Shreve
Age: 26
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until the 2020-21 offseason
Options remaining: 1

Ben Heller
Age: 25
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason
Options remaining: 3

Jonathan Holder
Age: 23
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-arbitration; cannot become a free agent until at least the 2022-23 offseason
Options remaining: 3

With Aroldis Chapman, Randy Levine favorite Dellin Betances and Tyler Clippard locked in, and Warren, Mitchell and Tommy Layne perhaps in line to join them, the Yankees should have a good idea of what their bullpen will look like. The picture isn’t fully clear, though, as the likes of Niese, Shreve, Heller and Holder figure to push for roster spots in the coming weeks.

Niese is easily the most experienced, having collected 211 major league appearances. Although 197 of those have come as a starter, the Yankees are intent on seeing what he can offer as a reliever. Niese doesn’t seem like an overly appealing option as anything but a long reliever, however, as he doesn’t throw hard or dominate same-sided hitters (lefties have hit .266/.326/.412 against him). Shreve, on the other hand, hasn’t fared well since a successful 12 1/3-inning stint with the Braves in 2014 and a terrific first half as a Yankee in 2015. He also hasn’t been any kind of solution against lefty-swingers, who have slashed .264/.361/.462 against him. Heller and Holder, meanwhile, have done nicely in the minors – the latter was especially great last season – but didn’t carry that success to the majors in small sample sizes in 2016.

Prediction: The Yankees tab Niese as a third lefty behind Chapman and Layne, who would accompany four righties (Betances, Clippard, Warren and Mitchell) to comprise their season-opening bullpen.

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