While the Royals and first baseman Eric Hosmer will discuss a contract extension until Opening Day, there’s only a “remote” chance a deal will come together by then, per Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star.
Kansas City has “been nothing but supportive,” Hosmer said Monday, but Dodd writes that the Scott Boras client regards the idea of reaching the open market next winter as intriguing. Hosmer could end up with a $100MM-plus deal between now and the 2018 campaign, Dodd notes, though the 27-year-old indicated that rumors he’s pushing for a decadelong accord are false.
“That’s where you guys get everything mixed up,” Hosmer said. “I never said anything about that. I never said anything about a 10-year deal.”
It’s debatable whether Hosmer would be worth a major investment. After all, the former star prospect hasn’t exhibited much consistency since breaking into the league in 2011, having mixed productive offensive seasons with underwhelming ones. Hosmer was at his best in 2015, when he posted a .297/.363/.459, 3.4-fWAR season in 667 plate appearances and helped the Royals to their first World Series title since 1985. But he took sizable steps backward last year, another 667-PA campaign, as he slashed a mediocre .266/.328/.433 and logged a negative fWAR (minus-0.2) despite swatting a career-high 25 home runs.
Across 3,722 major league plate trips, Hosmer has recorded an unspectacular .277/.335/.428 line to go with just 5.6 fWAR. As FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan pointed out earlier Tuesday, Hosmer has been as valuable per 600 PAs as Mitch Moreland since 2014. Moreover, projections for 2017 place Hosmer in the same company as Mike Napoli and Chris Carter. Moreland, Napoli and Carter, all first basemen, had to settle for one-year pacts ranging from $3.5MM to $8.5MM guaranteed in free agency this winter. Those are obviously far cries from substantial paydays in today’s league.
Hosmer, in fairness, is several years younger than each of those 30-somethings, and Sullivan noted there could be reason to expect better from him going forward. Whether it will hold up is debatable, but Hosmer has performed well in clutch situations. He also could be a better defender than the metrics give him credit for, and there might be untapped potential on the offensive end, Sullivan observes. Still, as Sullivan concluded, it doesn’t seem as if Hosmer has done enough up to now to justify an enormous contract.
For the Royals, locking Hosmer up by April would likely mean awarding him a deal more valuable than the franchise record-setting, $72MM pact they gave outfielder Alex Gordon as a free agent last year. That would be difficult for a medium-payroll club that also has decisions to make on soon-to-be free agents like outfielder Lorenzo Cain and third baseman Mike Moustakas by next winter.
Finally some honesty about Hosmer; a good solid player, but probably not a guy the Royals can afford to sign long term and build around. Just not enough justification for a team with their payroll to invest the amount of money and years they are going to have to.in order to keep him.
They’re not re=signing Hosmer.
The only way I see it working is if the Royals giving Hosmer a 3 or 4 year deal, and it’s not going to be worth much more than Gordon’s. I’d be ok with a 3-year, $40 mil deal for Hosmer, but that’s probably as high as I’d go. No chance he takes that.
They also have Ryan O’Hearn in the minors who could fill the role of 1st base fairly well in 2018. Or even Hunter Dozier/Cheslor Cuthbert, depending on what they do with Moustakas.
Plus they have Samir Duenez waaaaaay down in the system who could turn into something.
1st base is one of the only positions the Royals have capable replacements in the system, outside of 3rd base and corner outfield. It’d be a dumb move re-signing Hosmer.
The Royals have a replacement at every position.
1B is O’Hern
2B is Whit
3B is Cuthbert/Dozier
SS is Mondesi
LF is Gordon for 3 more years/Bonifacio
CF is Orlando/Burns
RF is Soler/Orlando/Dozier
DH is Soler/Gordon/Random FA
To say that 1B, 3B, and LF/RF are the only positions with replacements is absurd (and also half the positions on the field).
The true question isn’t who the replacements are though. The true question is how far away are the replacements from being MLB ready? O’Hern was in AA last year (highest he’s been) and didn’t exactly impress. He hit .258 and had 131 strikeouts in 414 plate appearances. If anything, 1B is the one position the Royals don’t have a replacement for, right now.
As a Royals fan – I can say that you are either crossing the homerism line – or don’t know much about the Royals system. Your list of ‘replacements’ is pitiful and would create one of the very worst teams in MLB history.
Then fix the list. Educate me, seeing is how I don’t know much about the Royals system.
You may be close to the correct ‘next man up’ at each position – but that’s not the point. You made it seem like the Royals are fine and have good depth and replacements at most positions. There is a big difference between plugging a name in….and it actually being a legitimate MLB replacement.
There is a reason the Royals farm system is ranked so low. It’s because it stinks.
You can’t give any names besides “next man up” when it comes to future replacements though. I can’t reasonably say who the Royals are going to sign to fill a hole because that person isn’t with the Royals. With what they currently have, this is the best option when it comes to replacements.
Orlando is a serviceable replacement in CF/OF until Bonifacio gets the nod. last year Orlando hit .302 over 128 games. He doesn’t have power, but his speed does help. Before we can fully agree that Orlando can fill in at CF though he needs to replicate his 2016 numbers. If he does, then things aren’t as bad in the OF as it seems.
Same goes with Cuthbert. Mondesi is young and will take time to adjust. Whit’s hitting was hot, then cold, then hot again. Again, not a power guys, but if he can win the 2B spot and hit .270-.290 then he’s the long-term solution at 2B. O’Hern is the biggest question mark of them all.
After looking at what the Royals currently have, have seen in minors/majors, 1B is by far the weakest area, which is why I said that 1B is actually the one position they don’t have someone serviceable at. Before you say Moss, Moss either hits the ball out of the park or is out. That’s not exactly serviceable, in my opinion.
I also don’t care where the farm system ranks. The guys needed are close enough to MLB ready that the rest of the system isn’t a priority right now.
I’d say the ‘safest’ bet the Royals have as a replacement is Dozier at either 3B or 1B.
Outside of that – the next level of Royals depth is not encouraging.
How is Dozier the safest bet after seeing Cuthbert for 128 games and a .274 average, with 28 doubles and 12 HRs in the bigs? Or Orlando hit .302 over 128 games, with 24 doubles, 4 triples, and 5 HRs in the bigs?
Because I’m not really talking about guys expected to be on the current 25 man roster.
Well…considering the Royals have called up every replacement for every position, and Dozier and Bonifacio are technically the only two replacements for the 2017/2018 season not on the 25 man roster, sure. Dozier does seem like the safer bet…of the two…
Agreed. We have a weak farm system now and seem particularly weak at 1st. But that’s no reason to break the bank on Hosmer. As you can see from some of the recent comps, 1st base is not the premium position it used to be. Let Hosmer walk and fill the gap with Dozier, OHearn or even Cuthbert. The other option is of course that they will eventually shift Perez or Gordon to first to ease the aging process.
Depending on the contract Hosmer gets, it might not break the bank for the Royals. When the new TV deal comes into effect, $20M a year will easily be substantially more. Cain, Moose, and Escobar being traded, more money with the team now. Kennedy opts out, more money to the team.
I know that’s a lot of “what it’s” and “could be’s” but at the same time it’s 100% possible. I fully understand that 1B isn’t a prime position and one you should spend the most money on, but when you look at other statistics in clutch situations, Hosmer was one of the best.
With Dozier getting some time at 1B, I’m willing to bet that O’Hern isn’t on the radar of replacement 1B, and neither is Moss. When you actually look at the Royals system though, 1B is the position they are very shallow in.
Why would Kennedy even opt out though? Unless he has an even better year than last year, he makes more staying put. And what are the chances we trade all three of those guys before the deadline? If Cain has a good year, the team is likely in the playoff race and he isn’t moved. Moose could be traded, but what contender won’t already have a 3rd baseman in place? And Escobar, an extremely light hitting and aging defense first SS, is worth very little in trade.
Hosmer has already made it clear he wants to test free agency. The likelihood is that someone will offer him more than we can afford. If not, you’re banking on him to have another down year to bring the cost down. But then you have to wonder why would we even want him back?
Kennedy would opt out because the rest of his contract is essentially a 3yrs/$49M contract. With a FA market that is very weak when it comes to starting pitchers (only Arrieta, Cueto, and Darvish are quality pitchers on the market) Kennedy could reel in a contract that is longer and worth more than $49M. He can play out the remaining 3 years and retire at the age of 35, or sign a 3-5 year deal to end his career and pitch till he is 37. That’s why he would opt out. Longer deal, worth more overall, and would be the last contract he’d have to sign in his career.
If the Royals are still in contention then they aren’t trading anyone. If they are out of it, all 4 will most likely be traded unless they know Hosmer will sign at the end of the year.
Logan Forsythe was traded to LAD this year for one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, Jose DeLeon. If that type of “talent” can bring a return like DeLeon, then Escobar can bring in something better than you’re thinking. Escobar is the same age, a better hitter, defender, and base runner than Forsythe.
And don’t pay attention to Moose being just a 3B. If an American League team needs a solid DH player, Moose is going to be that guy. Boston doesn’t have a legitimate 3B. New York has a weak 3B. Just because a team is competitive doesn’t mean they have a 3B, or in this case maybe even a DH.
I’ll buy on the Moose possibility, but I think he’s the most likely of these guys to re-sign in KC. I’ll even grant you the stretch of saying that Kennedy opts out (which again is entirely dependent on his production this season). But the other suggestion about Escobar is nonsense. LAD got two years of cheap control for a reliable 2nd baseman who is probably the final piece of what they see as a championship run. Maybe they undervalued DeLeon but their system is stocked and once they couldn’t swing the deal for Dozier they took what they could get. Escobar hasn’t logged an offensive or defensive WAR in the past two seasons above 1.. He’s arguably one of the worst everyday hitters in the MLB. If someone offered a pitching prospect anywhere near the level of DeLeon for him, the Royals should take the deal tomorrow.
And just for clarity, while I’m not a Forsythe fan by any means, his WAR at the plate last year was over 3, and above 4 in 2015. Your perception of the two is way off.
Neither O’Hearn or Duanez are even remotely close to being able to be considered a viable alternative to Hosmer. They’re both AT BEST two years from the majors and even that’s being very bullish.
Bonifacio continues to hit and doesn’t even get a September call-up so that tells me the team doesn’t believe he’s ready to step into anything.
Cheslor Cuthbert and to a lesser extent Raul Mondesi are the only prospects we have that I’m prepared to pencil in as a replacement for anyone.
don’t forget Peter O’brien
If this offseasons market is any indication, he might have to take it.
Honestly, I’d keep Cain over Hosmer.
I would keep Moustakas over either of them.
Please justify this. I love Moose as a Royals fan but he has had ONE good season and several really, really awful ones. I’m bullish on Moose and would rather re-sign him than not, but I don’t understand the argument other than just 3b>1b.
His one good season was recent, and it was better than anything we’ve seen from Hosmer. He was playing great until he got hurt last season, and an average to above average 3b is worth more than average 1b.
Position and cost are the primary reasons I’d keep Moustakas over Hosmer.
He’s already be KOed for a year. Regardless of the reason, it’s cause for concern. In addition, he’s arguably been as inconsistent as Hosmer, essentially alternating quality years. Cain, on the other hand, has been fairly consistent in KC, particularly over the last few years.
Cain is great when he’s on the field, but he can’t stay healthy and that tendency doesn’t usually get better with age.
Cain has been a solid hitter the past 3 years. The only thing more reliable than him as a batter, is his disabled list appearances. I don’t want to invest big money for a player in his 30’s who has always been injury prone. Especially this past year when he said his wrist was too hurt to play and finished the last month without playing even tho management said he was day to day.
Moose is the better and cheaper option if he returns to form this season after the injury. He showed real signs of being an all over the field hitter with good power as well. It’s less of a risk than giving Hosmer 100mil. Arguably on the defensive end a more difficult position that Moose has flashed upper level skills at. Moose all the way.
Most overrated player in baseball. There I said it.
yup
Easily the most overrated player in the game. Thank. You.
Agree. Very overrated.
I wouldn’t expect less from a Mets fan…sorry for your loss
Sorry, but Bryce Harper is the most overrated player in baseball, not Hosmer.
To say most overrated player in baseball is just absurd. Hosmer is a franchise player for KC but at the same time, DM is not going to give him a 8-10 yr deal. I think Dayton and Hoz will find a middle ground but Boras will also include a player opt out option after 2 yrs on a 6 year deal. DM took it with Kennedy and its the new thing to do in contracts esp if you have a money hungry agent in Boras.
Best player on an average team doesn’t make you great. He’s average.
You mean the guy’s who’s best season was 2015 and he was the 9th best first basemen in the league that year. Don’t drown in the kool-aid pal.
Thinking Hosmer is a franchise player is the only thing in here that is absurd.
This guy is overhyped.
I know Myers deal covers Arb years… but is Hosmer worth more than Myers? Other than he has been doing it longer, I like Myers long term.
I agree with the tone of the article (and most of the comments). HOWEVER, if Jason Heyward (the Hosmer of the OF) gets what he got, who can say what Hosmer will get? The league seems to rate youth much more highly than performance for FAs these days.
Eric Hosmer 5.6 fwar in 3722 pas
Jason Heyward 27.7 fwar in 3429 pas (prior to contract)
But yeah, totally the equivalent players.
If you believe defensive metrics are accurate (and hence WAR is be-all/end-all), then yes. I do not.
Even if you adjust his last season to make his defense elite level, his WAR ends up being 2.2. In 2015, it moves to 3.8, and in 2014 it becomes 2.0.
So all in all, even if you adjust the defensive metrics to reflect the eye test, he’s still an average everyday player
it’s not be all and all but it’s rarely off by that much he’s got him quadrupled it’s not close
If Hosmer is the most overrated, then what is Brandon Belt?
A much better baseball player than eric hosmer?
I guess you’re right. He’s got a pretty nice WAR. I’m going to go hide in a closet now.
I’ve never heard Belt being that highly rated by anyone.
Every year, analysts have raved about his swing and keep saying he’ll finally “bust out”. I will say it’s intriguing that he amassed 100+ walks in 2016, though, and has never been awful. We just haven’t seen the 25+ homer guy that has long been anticipated.
Brandon Belt is the reincarnation of JT Snow – solid defensively, modestly above replacement level offensively, steady, but he’ll never lead the league in anything. Hosmer is clearly a better clutch hitter than Belt, and I think that’s the most significant difference between the two.
He’s a fantastic hitter, just not by the traditional (HR/avg) measurements.
Hosmer is the white James Loney. Not worth a huge investment.
Hoz’s value is hard to judge. What is the price of having a young clubhouse veteran. One that leads by example of work ethic,and galvanizes the team together. They may be an average talent team but these guys love to play together which is why they have continued to outperform projected win totals every year. If you have watched much royals baseball this guys a clutch winning player and a 3,4 or 5 hole hitter. Even at his current production he is worth 8 to 10 for 5 or 6 yrs. He’s young enough to have a little room for improvement aswell.
I would say 6 yrs 80 mil seems like it is good for both.
Sign Moose or none of the 3
The other thing that could work against him is just how many top free agents there will be next year. The big market teams will chase the top talent and like most I don’t see Hosmer as a top tier player. He is good, but not great.
I think he is a alright player, but he plays a position that is easy to replace. Seems silly to take a risk on a long term contract when there will be other short term options that will be as productive or better.
The Royals will resign Hosmer and let Cain walk for sure they have the outfield covered still if he left. Moose probably stays as well.
Wouldn’t have guessed his war numbers would be that low. Can’t deny though, he is fun to watch. Still remember the one postseason game they had him mic’d up, think he hit a homer, or was just driven in, but as he crossed home and was with the others who scored he was just screaming so hard. Was hilarious and awesome.