Atlanta pursued a trade for right-hander Sonny Gray before the Athletics dealt him to the Yankees at this past Monday’s non-waiver deadline, but he wasn’t the Braves’ prime target among controllable pitchers. Rather, the Braves had greater interest in Tigers righty Michael Fulmer, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).
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While the Tigers ended up retaining Fulmer, they could revisit trade talks involving the 24-year-old during the offseason, suggests Rosenthal. The Braves would presumably still covet Fulmer, as would many other teams, considering he ranks among the game’s best young starters. Fulmer fired 159 innings of 3.06 ERA ball en route to American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2016, and he has also notched strong results in his sophomore campaign. Thus far, Fulmer has recorded a 3.59 ERA, 6.41 K/9, 1.99 BB/9 and a 49.7 percent ground-ball rate across 140 1/3 frames. Although he’s not exactly a strikeout machine, Fulmer has offset that by seldom allowing hard contact on balls put in play – he ranks a solid 26th among starters in infield fly percentage (10.2), and hitters have posted a meager .280 wOBA against him (compared to a .296 xwOBA, per Statcast).
Unfortunately for Fulmer, he hasn’t gotten through 2017 unscathed. He dealt with shoulder bursitis earlier in the year and landed on the disabled list Thursday with ulnar neuritis in his right elbow. The Braves, though, view him as less of an injury risk than Gray, and they also greatly value Fulmer’s team control. Fulmer hasn’t even gone through arbitration yet – that will happen as a Super Two player after the 2018 season – whereas Gray is on track to become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 campaign.
Considering his combination of performance, youth and club control, Fulmer would be at the center of a bidding war if the Tigers were to place him on the block in the winter. While any team would struggle to pry Fulmer out of Detroit, the Braves might be in the best position to make it happen. They have the premier farm system in baseball, according to recent assessments from Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (subscription required and recommended), and may be willing to move prospect capital for young, proven commodities in an effort to leave their rebuild behind. At 50-58, the Braves are on their way to a fourth straight sub-.500 season.
Would have cost them a huge haul. Acuna, Maitan , Anderson and Freid at least
This guy is a genius
Ugh please not acuna
Braves aren’t trading Acuna. I don’t see them trading Maitan either and since they just called Fried up, a little less likely they trade him now. I say they hold on to prospects and see who pans out and do what they can in free agency.
I’ll pass at that price.
Hope you are not driving after all that drinking, lol
Everyone whining about that price tag. He’s one of the most valuable arms in the game based on control, price, and talent
Fulmer’s shoulder is burnt out already.
Braves should hold onto their arms. It should also go without saying that Acuna and Maitan are untouchable, but it seems John Hart is toting around scars from the 1990’s Indians and has learned the wrong lessons.
If you can’t hit, you can’t win. That’s been a fact in MLB since the end of the 1980’s(Royals and Dodgers).
Are you sure you aren’t tigersfan711
Little reason for Detroit to trade Fulmer. He’s under control until 2023. It would make more sense to try to extend him, seeing as we have over 60M coming off the books in the next year and a half. Plus, after an extremely solid 2017 draft, there’s a good chance we could contend by 2019 or 2020. If we’re not ready and he doesn’t fit our window, then trade him. But it would make little sense to jump the gun now, especially when he can get even better and increase his trade value.
Extend him really? Pump the brakes a little. He’s under team control for 5 years!! He’s off to a good start ok you can say pretty good start but I sure wouldn’t say great start or even close to ace numbers. So regardless of how much is coming off the books lots can happen in a year or two let alone 4 or 5 years!
Yeah I agree. His ERA and strikeouts to 9 say his is not an ace. He isn 32nd in WAR among all pitchers. So if he has declined this year, if I was a buyer see what he does next year. Sample size too small to give up haul.
Exactly Tom.
Why not at least start a dialog? He was rookie of the year and has been a top 20 pitcher this year. He’s only 24 and still has significant upside. By extending him you could smooth out his earnings and get some cost certainty. Teams extend players with that much control all the time; look at andrus, longoria, teheran, archer.
There’s always a right price for a deal.
Start a dialog for what? It’s a small sample size and good numbers at best! Let’s talk this time next year and see. Way WAY to early to start talking about bring the dump truck for this guy.
Two years is not a small sample size.
1 1/2
Okay, a year and 3/5 is not a small sample size.
I think at this point everyone knows what to expect from Fulmer. Plus, he’s only 24, so there’s plenty of room to grow
It’s pretty small for sure.
And no we don’t know because his number are down slightly from last year and has had some health issues this year so let’s just see how he finishes up this year and starts off next year! He’s got plenty of room for growth we both know that but also can decline even more so just wait and see.
Sure, it’s not 3 years of playing time, but 2 years (assuming they try to extend him in the off-season) is plenty of time to make an evaluation on a player. Teams have extended players with only 2 years of service time before. It’s absolutely not out of the question like you might be implying.
And all I’m saying is to try to start a dialog. If one side isn’t interested in a deal because of the price, I understand. But if I were the GM I would definitely start having talks about extending him now.
What’s the incentive for Fulmer to take an extension? The guys that do agree to them are usually more in the mold of guys that need some sort of cost certainty in the future (Jose Tabata would be a good example, as could Salvador Perez when he signed his first extension a few years ago, and even Jon Singleton), as opposed to guys that are clearly on the way to huge paydays down the line. The deals that Longoria, Sale, and others look like bargains in hindsight, but each of them had reasons to take the money at the time. With the way the market has treated good pitchers, I just don’t really see a reason for Fulmer to take any sort of discount at this point.
To smooth out his earnings. He’s making $550,000 this and next year, and could be making 10M instead next year by signing an extension;
A reason could be injury risk. He’s already had tommy john surgery. If the Tigers offer him a reasonable deal, it could be a win for both parties. Fulmer would have guaranteed money for the next 7 years, and the Tigers could buy out a year or two out of his prime years.
No extension is going to pay him $10MM in a pre-arb season. Show me some precedence of that ever happening.
It could still be a good idea for him to explore an extension. He could end up with $50-$60MM guaranteed. Which is obviously very comforting to a pre-arb player, especially a pitcher.
@stl_cards16
Chris archer’s extension is 25M/6 years. That’s less than 10M/year.
Regardless, I was just using that number (10M) as an example, not what I think fulmer would be worth if he entered in an extension with Detroit
Oh I see you were saying 10M was too much for a pre-arb year.
I would agree with that, but if the Tigers were really trying to save some money for future years, I wouldn’t say a couple million increase during pre-arb isn’t out of the question
Fulmer hasn’t had Tommy John surgery
You’re right. It was a torn meniscus that ended his season.
The incentive is that he’s a pitcher, and pitchers get hurt VERY frequently. A guaranteed contract provides a gigantic safety net for him. You’re right in saying the Sale deal looks like a bargain (because it is), but it’d look a heck of a lot different if he threw his arm out at some point right after signing it. Just look how bad the John Danks contract extension looked after he threw his arm out…
If Sale and his agent thought it was smart for him to accept an early extension, I’d find it hard to believe that Fulmer and his agent would think any differently. Sale was significantly more dominant before signing his extension than Fulmer has been, and he still happily took the guaranteed money.
Let’s be realistic here. Assuming he stays healthy, which is a big assumption for any pitcher, how much money would he REALLY be leaving on the table if he took a 6 year contract? That’d buy out all his arbitration years and his first year of free agency. If they gave him around $10mil per year, he’d probably end up making almost the same amount total through his arbitration years as he would have anyways; the only difference would be that he would be pocketing “too much” in the first couple years and “too little” in the last couple compared to what he’d get in arbitration. So the only year that would “hurt” is the first year of free agency. He’d only be making $10mil instead of the $20+mil he’d get on the open market for that year. Again, that’s assuming he stays fully healthy and continues to pitch like a backend #1 or high end #2.
Now what’s more important? That extra $10-15mil in 2023 (when he could’ve already made $50 or so mil over the last 6 years) or the GUARANTEED $60 or so mil he’d be making from 2018-2023, no matter if he got injured, declined, or anything in between?
Obviously these are just random numbers. I probably over exaggerated the amount he’d get on his contract, but I also probably overestimated what he’d make in his arbitration years, so it’d basically equal out. Obviously this is also assuming the Tigers don’t try to completely lowball him or anything like that. If that were the case, I wouldn’t blame him for not taking an extension. But in the end, it all comes down to guaranteed money vs wanting to make a little more on the backend.
Well said!
Funny how dodger fans think they never have to trade their top 3 prospects but want everyone else to trade all 3 of theirs
as a Dodger fan I don’t think they should trade the top prospects but I also understand that that means not getting the best available players that are on long-term deals. when it comes to fulmer it’s either you give up the bast or you’re not getting him
Yeah but Fulmer is off two a good star, but many of the Braves arms have a higher ceiling. I would take Wright over Fulmer by himself. Just my opinion.
Taking Wright over Fulmer alone is ridiculous. Fulmer is what you hope Wright can be except he is already there
I’m not a fan of his strikeouts to 9. 100 strikeouts in 140 innings. Thats what determines an ace. That and he hasn’t been in the league ling enough. It would be a classic sell high for the Tigers. I think Wright will be better. Fulmer is a great pitcher. I’m just a huge Kyle Wright fan. The guy is gonna be like Verlander in his prime. Wright will strikeout a batter an inning.
K/9 is not the end all be all. Maddux was never a great K/9…but I suspect we all agree he was an ace. However, I agree that Sale is a generational talent and fulmer is a 2nd year guy. No one thought Sale was a generational guy in his second year, though. Fulmer has it in him to strike out more, so we will see if he does. 5 years of a #2 or a #3 is worth a lot and would cost top prospects.
Michael fulmer is better than his strikeout numbers suggest. I was at one of his games and Toronto had one hard hit ball off him imo
It seems to early to say that he will get better or worse. Need another year on Fulmer imo. A trade with the Braves doesn’t make sense for either teams. Tigers should get a few nice pieces for Verlander, then they can revisit Fulmer talks next trade deadline. He will have more of a track record and the Tigers can reasonably demand a kings ransom after his third year in the league. I think he will strikeout more. In the postseason, its about missing bats. So calling him an ace now would be saying he is a difference maker at this present time, and without missing bats you just can’t bank on how he would perform in a pennant race. Strikeouts per 9 areant’ as important for lefites. But for righties they are very important.
Chris Sale was called up to the big leagues after pitching 10 minor league innings… Nobody thought he was a “generational guy” in his second year because they had him pitching out of the bullpen, and bullpen pieces weren’t valued anywhere near as highly as they are today. He put up some fantastic numbers in his first 2 years out of the pen, and he immediately put up ridiculous numbers when he went back to starting his 3rd year. From day 1, anyone that saw him pitch knew that he’d be a ridiculously good pitcher if he could stay healthy.
Fulmer hasn’t shown anything to prove that he has that kind of ceiling. But I do agree with you in saying he would cost top prospects, even if he’s “just” a high end #2 or #3 with 5 years of cheap control.
Its funny because you provide no evidence of this. Name 1 pitcher the dodgers fans though they could get without trading their top prospects. You can pretend all you want but Fulmer is one of the most valuable pitchers in the game.
Ya because a top 3 of Seager, Urias and Pederson was like so many other top 3’s….
Albies Anderson Pache Touki. They’d probably decline, but no reason to trade more than that from the Braves’ perspective.
And absolutely no Acuna in any trade for an arm, especially an arm with injuries this year.
I had said more than once not to be surprised if the Braves went after a Verlander/Fulmer package. Of course it may have been some other large contract but I still believe that one of the reasons that the Braves freed up two 40 man roster spots when they dealt Garcia and Recker was to attempt to take on salary and talent together. Such a combined package would probably had lowered the cost of Fulmer somewhat (but obviously not overly much).
Verlander and Fulmer will never be in the same package. That’s like the Braves trading Dansby and Freeman in the same package.
Packaging a team’s two best players is just so incredibly unrealistic. If the Tigers do trade Fulmer, its for a haul and probably would happen after Verlander retires. The Tigers have Fulmer until 2023. It makes no sense for them to try and trade him when they could start contending in 2019 or 2020.
it would be nothing like trading dansby and freeman together. Your right though, adding verlander contract to fulmer in a deal would only hurt the tigers
I agree the trade values aren’t the same. I was just trying to make a comparison so that he would understand that teams never trade their best two players in the same deal.
that was my first thought too and a rotation of Verlander/Tehran/fullmer is a solid start and then fill with youth. there’s also the possibility that Detroit might take Tehran in return to balance out some money and to either fill in as a stopgap or flip for more prospects and
“and then fill with youth”
That youth would be in Detroit unless John Hart has completely lost touch with reality and deals Acuna or Maitan.
It would’ve been weird to see Atlanta on the losing end of a Shelby Miller-Esque trade
With Quintana and Gray off the market, I guess there needs to be a different starting pitcher to fan the rumor flames of a package headlined by Markakis proposed by all Braves fans ever.
Untouchables in any reasonable trade scenario: Acuna, Maitan, Allard, Soroka, Wright. Everyone else should be open, including Swanson & Albies.
I’d send Gohara, Wentz, Albies, & Peterson for Fulmer. That’s 2-3 top 100 prospects and a decent of that needs to move.
But if Detroit is smart they’d fleece the Yanks because they are the closest and need a SP the most.
Lmao thats the exact type of poor package that we are talking about. If thats all it took to get fulmer half the leauge would be making an offer. If all those are untouchable you arent getting fulmer
Albies is a top 20 prospect. Plus two top 100 pitchers. Tell me what team would beat that i’m curious?
Oh please any team that has 2 top 100 prospects could beat that. Gohara is in the 90s which means he is not close to a deal breaker. There is no one named wentz in the top 100 list. So 1 good prospect 1 decent pitcher and 2 lottery tickets for fulmer is comical. Many teams could beat that offer
I agree it’s not enough, but don’t give too much credence to top-100 rankings. Acuna wasn’t listed on it at the beginning of the season and look where he is now. ATL’s #10-15 is better than many teams 1-5.
Please tell me the half of the league that have more than 2 top 100 prospects they’re willing to deal.
Yea……..I didn’t think so.
Absurd.
Lol, no prospextsbare untouchable. You think the braves have 5? stop
I agree. No way should the Braves move Acuna, Allard, Soroka, or Wright. Maitan they should move before Albies because he is further from the big leagues.
Agree with you on Albies/Maitan. The point of adding a pitcher like Fulmer is to start winning now and throughout the next 4-5 years, something that Albies is ready to help with. Maitan may have the higher ceiling, but he’s most likely not going to be contributing to the big league club until the last year or 2 of Fulmer’s contract at the earliest. And even then, he likely won’t be anywhere near that ceiling by the time Fulmer’s contract is up. If I was forced to choose between the 2 in a Fulmer deal, I’d easily keep Albies. Heck, I’d probably even try to move Dansby before Albies at this point.
That’s a pretty fair package. Just don’t see the value in a trade like that (as a braves fan). We got so many high-ceiling guys. But that’s fair. Just don’t want to see Ozzie go
Pitching prospects can never be untouchable in a deal for a starting pitcher. That’s the mistake the Dodgers made with Julio Urias so they could not get Hamels or Price.
If Acuna or Maitan are dealt then the Braves Front Office is incompetent. That lineup is nowhere near being adequate.
We are talking about the Braves here. They are looking to go after Fulmer, but will settle with resigning Dickey. When was the last time the Braves lived up to there rumored big trade/signing expectations?
They have an option on Dickey, so they wouldn’t be re-signing, just picking it up. Fulmer is one of the most valuable pitching pieces in MLB, so of course there’s interest, especially considering ATL loves creative deals and DET is trying to shed payroll quickly. It’d be difficult to see Fulmer being traded because guys like that aren’t building blocks, obviously. Hopefully you weren’t holding your breath for this one.
Until they actually do something in the free agent market and/or trade market, I will hold my breath.
wont hold your breath*
otherwise, you may die
We are talking about the Braves here. They are looking to go after Fulmer, but will settle with resigning RA or another below average pitcher. When was the last time the Braves lived up to their rumored big trade/signing expectations? They are all talk!
There is a reason we stockpiled all the prospects.
It is time to win now!!!