After five offseasons in existence, the qualifying offer system underwent a makeover in the latest collective bargaining agreement. (Click here for a rundown of the new QO rules.) It remains to be seen how teams will approach this 2.0 version of the qualifying offer, though the most obvious impact can be seen in the relatively short list of names mentioned in this post. Several of the winter’s top free agents aren’t eligible to receive the qualifying offer due to regulations both new and old: players who have been tendered a QO in the past can no long receive another, and players still cannot be issued QOs unless they have been on a single team’s roster for a full season. This means that Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, Jay Bruce, Neil Walker and other notable pending free agents who were traded in midseason deals will be able to hit the open market without any draft compensation attached to their services.
With so many notable names off the QO board, we certainly won’t see a replay of the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players were issued qualifying offers. This winter’s free agent class could, however, potentially match or even top last offseason’s number of ten qualifying offer players, depending on how a few of the “borderline” cases play out.
This winter’s qualifying offer will reportedly be worth $18MM or $18.1MM on a one-year deal, as per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. Teams have until 10 days after the World Series to issue these offers. If a free agent rejects the offer, his former team becomes eligible for some form of draft pick compensation (an extra pick just prior to the third round, in most cases) if the player signs elsewhere. Of the 64 qualifying offers issued in five previous offseasons, only five have been accepted — Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters and Brett Anderson after the 2015 season, and Neil Walker and Jeremy Hellickson last winter.
Multiple factors can weigh into a player’s decision about whether or not to accept the QO. If a player is dealing with some injury questions or is coming off a good but not great walk year, the player and his representatives could choose to take the one-year guarantee ($18MM is no small chunk of change, after all) and look for a better and healthier performance in 2018 to better set the player up for a big multi-year contract next winter.
Two big factors may impact this thinking, however. The 2018-19 free agent class is loaded with superstars, so a player who takes the QO now would be entering a much more crowded marketplace next year. Also, players no longer have to worry as much about their markets being hampered by a first-round draft pick being attached their services, thanks to the new CBA’s lesser compensatory costs for teams who sign qualifying offer free agents. It seems likely that teams will be much more willing to give up their second- or third-highest draft picks (depending on the scenario) to sign a QO free agent than they would their first-rounder — we’ve already seen multiple examples of this willingness under the original QO rules, when some organizations added multiple pick-bound free agents in a single offseason (with each successive signing coming with a progressively less significant draft penalty).
Since we’ve seen that players will take a qualifying offer, obviously teams are prepared for such a scenario and wouldn’t issue a QO that they wouldn’t be comfortable seeing accepted. That’s why the lesser amount of compensation (in most cases) coming back to teams that lose a QO free agent probably won’t dramatically affect a club’s decision to tender or not tender a qualifying offer to a particular player. If anything, the lesser compensation has shown us that we could expect more trades of big free agents in future seasons, as non-contending clubs would obviously prefer to land a big return on a deadline trade than to collect merely a compensatory pick prior to the third round (in most cases) if that player rejected a QO and left for free agency. (This reasoning helps explain the Rangers’ decision to deal Darvish this summer, for example.)
With all of this preamble and explanation out of the way, let’s start making some projections about which players will receive the qualifying offer this winter. Quite a bit can still happen (performance-wise or health-wise) over the season’s final six weeks that could influence these rankings, though let’s see how things stand at the moment…
- The Easy Calls: Jake Arrieta, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Greg Holland (player option), Eric Hosmer, Lance Lynn, Mike Moustakas, Masahiro Tanaka (opt-out clause)
It looks like we’ll have at least seven QO free agents this winter, with an eighth if Tanaka exercises his opt-out. There also doesn’t appear to be much chance that any of the initial seven would accept a qualifying offer, as all are enjoying good-to-outstanding seasons that will deliver them lucrative multi-year contracts. Both Lynn and Holland missed all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but both have looked healthy and effective enough in their return seasons that teams shouldn’t have any immediate concerns about their injury status. Lynn’s peripherals aren’t great, while Holland has shown some cracks of late, but on balance both are on track to receive and decline a QO as things stand.
It remains to be seen if Tanaka will opt out of the three years and $67MM remaining on his contract with the Yankees, since he has a career-worst 4.86 ERA over 140 2/3 innings. However, since he has pitched better over the last two months (3.98 ERA, 106-to-18 K/BB ratio since May 26), it seems more likely that he will indeed exercise his opt-out should this form continue through September. Tanaka doesn’t turn 29 years old until November, so even coming off an inconsistent year, he’s still likely to command a strong multi-year deal from someone. Regardless, there isn’t a plausible scenario where Tanaka opts out but then accepts the Yankees’ qualifying offer.
Under the new compensation rules, the Yankees (as a luxury tax payer) would only get a pick after the fourth round if Tanaka rejected the QO and signed elsewhere. The Cubs and Cardinals (as revenue-sharing contributors but not luxury tax payers) would receive a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round if Arrieta, Davis or Lynn signed elsewhere. The Royals and Rockies are both revenue-sharing recipients, so their potential compensation pick(s) for Moustakas/Cain/Hosmer/Holland would fall after the first round for any of those players that end up signing for $50MM or more in guaranteed money.
For what it’s worth, there are several star players (e.g. Jose Altuve, Madison Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Ian Kinsler, Andrew McCutchen, Chris Sale) who could theoretically become free agents and receive qualifying offers if their teams declined club options on their services for 2018. But it’s hard to imagine circumstances where that would really make sense, so we’ll assume these big names won’t be making a surprise entry into free agency.
- Borderline Cases: Zack Cozart, Carlos Santana
Based on pure all-around production, Cozart would seem like a lock; only 16 players in baseball have generated more than Cozart’s 4.1 fWAR. The longtime Reds infielder just turned 32, however, and he has battled a couple of quad injuries this season, on top of the knee injuries that hampered him in 2015-16. There’s at least a chance that Cozart would accept the QO, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently outlined, due to a lack of a shortstop market and the fact that Cozart may jump at the chance to lock in an $18MM+ payday, having earned just over $12.2MM total over seven big-league seasons. The rebuilding Reds have alternative options at short and surely aren’t keen to add $18MM in payroll. Plus, that price tag would make it harder for Cincy to trade Cozart (not to mention the fact that players who accept the QO can’t be dealt without their consent until June 15).
Cozart’s case is an interesting test run for the new free agent compensation rules. If the original rules still applied, the Reds might be more inclined to take the risk of extending the QO since they would’ve landed a draft pick after the first round if Cozart rejected the offer and signed elsewhere. Under the new rules, however, the Reds (a revenue-sharing recipient) can only recoup a pick after the first round if Cozart signs elsewhere for at least $50MM guaranteed. If his next deal is less than $50MM, which is a distinct possibility given the lack of teams looking for shortstops, Cincinnati would only get the standard compensation pick prior to the third round.
After a slow start to the season, a red-hot July and August has put Santana on pace for yet another year of above-average offensive production. He’ll be entering his age-32 season, however, and last season showed that the market for aging first base/DH types is increasingly cool. Cleveland may not want to take the risk that Santana accepts a qualifying offer, as that could mean that the Indians would have over $36MM committed to their first base/DH mix in Santana and Edwin Encarnacion next season — not exactly ideal payroll distribution for a smaller-market club. The lack of extension talks between the two sides could indicate that the Tribe is ready to move on from Santana. Still, if Santana keeps raking, he could be more assured that he could find a nice multi-year offer elsewhere, and Cleveland might feel more secure that Santana would reject a QO.
- Probably Not: Welington Castillo, Alex Cobb, Carlos Gomez, Logan Morrison
Morrison got a first-hand look at last winter’s crowded market for first base bats, having to settle for a one-year, $2.5MM deal to return to Tampa Bay. While Morrison is enjoying a career year, however, his lack of a strong track record prior to 2017 may lead to another relative lack of suitors, so he could be a candidate to accept a QO. (It’s also relevant that left-handed sluggers such as Yonder Alonso and Lucas Duda will also be on the market, and neither will be saddled with draft compensation.) Cobb has good but not great numbers in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, and likely also would consider taking a qualifying offer in the hopes of really re-establishing himself as a frontline starter in 2018.
Since both LoMo and Cobb could potentially accept qualifying offers, the Rays aren’t likely to issue them. A team that only rarely edges over the $70MM payroll threshold simply can’t afford to have one (or two) players earning upwards of $18MM per season.
Castillo is posting good numbers in Baltimore and is therefore quite likely to opt out of his $7MM player option for 2018. As always, teams will be looking for catching help this winter, and they’ll be intrigued by a backstop who offered good production against both righties and lefties this season, plus some slightly above-average pitch framing totals behind the plate in the eye of Baseball Prospectus (StatCorner, it should be noted, has a much less positive view of Castillo’s framing performance this season). The Orioles have enough big salaries that they might not want to risk having an $18MM catcher on the books, especially with Caleb Joseph turning in a strong season and Chance Sisco nearing MLB readiness. If the season ended today, I doubt they’d issue Castillo a qualifying offer. That said, this could be a situation to keep an eye on if Castillo keeps hitting well through season’s end.
Gomez has played well enough this season in Texas that the memories of his nightmarish Astros tenure can be fully relegated to the past, though he has been limited to 86 games, largely due to a month-long DL stint recovering from a strained hamstring. Gomez has a 108 wRC+ and has been roughly average defensively in center field, so he could probably land a decent multi-year deal in free agency but would also have a sound case for accepting a qualifying offer. The Rangers likely don’t want to pay Gomez $18MM for one year, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team pass on issuing a QO but still try to re-sign him this winter.
I don’t think it’s a given that Moose rejects the QO. Right now he’s probably looking at a contract of about 50-70 mil, but teams are going to be concerned about how inconsistent his production was in previous years. Because of that, he’d really benefit from taking a QO and being good in 2018, thus getting a way bigger deal on consecutive solid years (something he’s never had in his career).
Furthermore, even if you ignore all of that salary upside, the 50-70 mil is unlikely to disappear in just 1 year. He’s only 28, so whatever contract he can get this year, I’m sure he can get it next year too. Thus 18 mil + 60 mil is a bigger number than 0 + 60 mil
I’m not saying he’s likely to accept it, just that it’s far from a guarantee
If he has another good year, no point to risk it if all he wants is money
The moose is going to sign a deal. There’s too much risk in the game of a baseball to turn down $70 mil. Moose is looking at an easy $70 mil probably a little more. He could turn down the QO and still get a 1year 18mil deal if that’s the route he wanted to go
But then he’s competing against machado and Donaldson at 3rd
Yes, but with two additional teams competing for a third baseman.
I’ve seen quite a few “experts” predict Moustakas signs in the 5/90 million dollar range. Even if it is $80 million I doubt seriously he’ll turn it down for a QO deal.
He won’t have teams’ offers in front of him when he is considering the QO, offers come after he rejects it.
True, but if I’m not badly mistaken there is a longer window for the players to make that decision now than there was previously. That extra time should allow the players to better guage interest than in the past.
This year, he’s the clear top 3B option. Next year he competes with Machado, who even if you ignore all of his statistics is 4 years younger. Absolutely no chance he takes the QO.
Many talking about how Moustakis would not want to “compete” with Machado or Donaldson next year. Another way to look at it is that teams are keeping their powder dry during the down free agent year in anticipation of the star studded year and that it would actually be beneficial to the player to be the second (or even third or fourth option) in a big free agent class that the top option in a crappy one. There will be teams that had hoped they’d get the chance to give Machado $4oom. When he picks some other team they will still have all that spending capacity and will be satisfied giving the next guy $100m. Look at the pitching market a couple of years ago and ask Kennedy, Chen, Leake, and Samardzija if they were happy being third tier options competing with superstars Price and Grienke.
Not to say Moustakis will accept a QO; it is pretty unlikely.
I pray to god the Angels stay away from any contracts over $100m this offseason and the next offseason
No one suggested it was close to a guarantee that he would reject it, or accept it, whatever your final point is.
The point is that the Rays are too low budget to risk him accepting it. Now if they are like 90% confident both that he would reject it and that he would sign for over $50m (netting them a good pick) perhaps they would issue it to him with the backup plan being trading/non-tendering some combination of Odorizzi, Miller, Hecchavaria, Ramos, etc.
But I agree with the article that it is unlikely they offer it to him. Like 90% of teams would, but I don’t see it with the Rays.
Love the sarcasm to the op point and then love even more two paragraphs about it with the wrong team. smh
Wasnt sarcasm, couldnt tell which of the two things he was saying due to wording.
And you must not post on here much if you don’t know that comments sometimes post in response to a different comment than you clicked on, it is pretty standard. I was posting in response to the guy talking about Cobb if it wasn’t clear.
I don’t see him accepting a QO. I do see him giving a home town discount and signing back with the Royals on a long term deal.
If all 3 Royals decline QO’s and don’t resign, this could be a great draft to jump start a rebuild for KC.
If I was a royal fans I’d fear that one or maybe two of the 3 sign and then you have a middling team that’s not quite bad enough to draft near the top but not good enough to make any noise.
A bunch of compensation picks after the 3rd round will not jump start a rebuild.
Except they’re all going to sign for over 50 million.
But yeah you’d have to hope it’s a luxury tax team going to sign them as well. Probably likely that one of them is signed by a team in the tax. Maybe moose or hosmer to NY.
That’s not how it works. The royals are revenue sharing so if they sign over 50 mil they get a first round pick. It doesn’t matter who signs them
Just as in the previous CBA, the lost pick of the team signing the QO free agent does not go to the team he left, the team just loses it period.
So let’s say hypothetically that the Dodgers signed Moustakas. Being a luxury-tax team, they would lose their 2nd and 5th highest draft picks. That doesn’t mean those picks go to KC, that just means the Dodgers lose it.
As KC is a revenue-sharing team, they would get a Compensatory Round pick after Round 1 if Moustakas signs for more than $50M. If he signs for less, they get a Compensatory Round Round pick after Round 2.
So to summarize, just like in the previous CBA, the team signing the player has no impact on which draft pick the player’s previous team receives in compensation.
I see.
No mention of Johnny Cueto.
he’s not opting out
Do we really think the Royals make three qualifying offers? I can’t imagine Moose accepting, so that one is maybe a no-brainer. If I were a team on a budget, though, I wouldn’t want to pay Hosmer, who is more likely to accept, over $18 million even for one season when there are comparable, cheaper options out there…
Hosmer is having a career year and is one of the faces of the franchise. If he leaves, then they get the draft pick. If he stays, then the royals keep a star for marketing and attendance purposes. Either way makes a lot of sense for the royals to give the three QOs
Name 1 comparable 1st baseman on the market.
Not saying that they’re comparable, but I’d take Duda or Santana over Hosmer. They both put up nice numbers still, and they’d be considerably cheaper than Hosmer IMO
There is a 0% chance Hosmer accepts a QO. His agent is Scott Boras and he’s hitting .315 this year with an .875 OPS. This will literally be the best season he’s ever had in every counting stat outside of RBIs.
Even if he does accept it for some odd reason, I’m sure the Royals would be ecstatic.
No way I’d sign Tanaka for 3 years @ $67 million. I think Yanks would be happy if he opted out.
There is something wrong if Cozart can’t at least get 3 years in the $36-$40 million range- although I guess one could debate whether that is better than the 1 year QO.
I don’t see lance Lynn as a lock for a QO. he’s pitched good this year but he’s coming off a injury year and the metrics like fip don’t like his work this year.
No reason for the Cardinals to not offer it.
If he accepts, it’s a low-risk 1 year deal to help bridge the gap to Reyes/Weaver/Flaherty/Hudson
I think it is a lock for him to get one.
Agree, he’ll get one and the. He’ll reject it and try to land a 3-4 year deal. This is likely his best chance to get the most money.
Free agents are a big gamble of the top 50 players only 10 are worth their salary, in the 50 to 100 range their are 20 and in the 100 to 150 range their are 30 players worth their salary. It is outlier to gauge a player on past performance. The best way to sign top free agents is the way the Cubs did it, they are the last pieces to put in place.
Amen. Build your core internally, and then use free agency for your complimentary pieces
You guys are right buuuuut there’s no other way to do it in baseball. You can’t get 17-20 quality players from free agency
i think Cobb gets one. No reason to let a solid three leave for nothing. Unfortunately, I don’t see it in the cards for the Rays this season- so if they don’t plan to extend a QO, they should try to make a waiver deal assuming they didn’t already pull him back.
I just don’t see the point of letting a guy like that leave for nothing when playoff contention is unlikely.
A lot of compelling QO eligible FA players. Moose is my favorite one. Not many players who play a premium position batting with 35HR, 28 years old, batting .282 to boot.
So far this season in 471PA The Moose is batting .282/.318/.562.
If he accepts the QO, he becomes a FA again at the age of 29 after banking a one year $18MM. With that being said, I agree with the popular consensus, that it’s not likely. (Moose is on fire, and has already shattered his career high in HR, still can’t believe he’s 28)
Even though, I’m not a Royals fan, I’m going to watch the Moose case closely. I wonder what his next contract will be?
Moose offers a good glove and solid power, but a .036 walk rate is kind of concerning. His lack of eye at the plate could lead to fluctuation in the batting ave.
That’s not why. Ever since 2015 (or midway through the season) when he started to hit oppo more his avg has been more consistent