At the All-Star break in mid-July, the American League MVP looked as if it would belong to Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge at season’s end. The hulking rookie laid waste to opposing pitchers over the season’s initial three-plus months, slashing an astounding .329/.448/.691 with 30 home runs and an absurd .362 ISO in 366 plate appearances. He then completed a storybook first half with an awe-inspiring showing at the home run derby. But in Yankees terms, the strikeout-prone Judge has been more Maas than Ruth in the second half, having batted an unimpressive .176/.333/.345 with seven homers and a nearly 200-point ISO decline (.169) in 147 trips to the plate. Both Judge’s Jekyll-and-Hyde routine and sustained excellence from other first-half stars have combined to make the AL MVP race a compelling one as the 2017 season nears its conclusion. The front-runners are…
5.) Aaron Judge, RF, Yankees: As wretched as Judge’s production has been over the past month-plus, the Yankees and their fans certainly would have signed up for his cumulative output entering the season. An AL Rookie of the Year shoo-in, Judge leads his league in homers (37) and ranks second among qualified hitters in fWAR (5.8), wRC+ (160) and ISO (.300). So, while the second half has been one to forget for Judge, he’s still on the short list of premier players in the AL this year. However, barring a 180-degree turn in September, the negative impression he has left since mid-July is going to weigh on voters’ minds and all but take him out of the running to earn the MVP in his first full season.
4.) Corey Kluber, SP, Indians: Not only is the MVP a difficult award for pitchers to win, but Kluber only ranks 28th in the AL in starts (22). The right-hander is behind the 8-ball for multiple reasons, then, though it’s hard to argue he hasn’t been one of the elite players in the league this season. The 2014 Cy Young winner leads AL starters in rWAR (5.7) and places second in fWAR (5.3), thanks largely to a league-best 2.65 ERA. Kluber’s run prevention is mostly the product of incredible strikeout and walk rates (12.26 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9) that each rank second in the AL. He’s also averaging nearly seven innings per appearance (152 2/3 frames overall) and has produced 16 quality starts.
3.) Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox: If not for Sale, Kluber would be in the lead for another Cy Young and would be the AL pitcher with the most realistic chance of taking home the MVP this year. But Sale, formerly with the long-struggling White Sox, has carried his track record of superstardom to the contending Red Sox this year and should finally pick up some hardware for his efforts. While the left-handed Sale is second to Kluber in ERA (2.88) and rWAR (5.1) among AL starters, he has a massive fWAR lead (7.4, which also tops all hitters), has tossed nearly 26 more innings (178 1/3, which is first in the AL) and has the league’s No. 1 strikeout and walk rates (12.77 K/9, 1.77 BB/9). Kluber’s Indians teed off on Sale last week, but that three-frame, six-earned run outing was only the sixth time out of 26 that the Boston ace hasn’t recorded a quality start this season.
2.) Mike Trout, CF, Angels: Trout missed all of June and the first week of July with a thumb injury, which is the type of lengthy absence that would’ve been ruinous to nearly all players’ MVP hopes. But there’s nothing typical about the 26-year-old Trout, already one of the greatest performers in the history of the sport and someone who arguably deserved the MVP in each of his first five seasons. Trout “only” has two MVPs to his name, though, and odds are that the voters won’t be able to overlook the time he missed when choosing a winner this season. That’s unfortunate, because even though he’s tied for 86th among AL hitters in PAs (385), he trails just two position players in fWAR (5.6) and has a realistic chance to finish first in that category at season’s end. A magnificent .318/.452/.646 line, to go with 26 homers and 15 stolen bases, has kept Trout in MVP contention and helped give the Angels a shot at their second playoff berth of his career.
1.) Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros: The diminutive Altuve is the anti-Judge in terms of size and in-season consistency. After hitting .347/.417/.551 in the first half, when the 5-foot-6, 165-pounder lagged a bit behind the 6-7, 275-pound Judge in the MVP race, Altuve has slashed an even better .370/.410/.578 since mid-July. Today’s Altuve has opposing pitchers longing for the early career version who packed little punch at the plate and was really only a threat because of his speed.
These days, not only does Altuve continue to terrorize hurlers when he gets on base (29 steals), but he’s obliterating his competition in the AL batting title race. Altuve has posted a .356 mark that’s 36 points above second place, and he leads qualified hitters in OBP (.415). The formerly powerless Altuve also slugged his 20th homer Sunday, contributing to the AL’s fourth-ranked slugging percentage (.565) and a more-than-respectable .209 ISO. All of that adds up to 6.0 fWAR and could lead to top AL honors for the five-time All-Star. Not bad for a once-overlooked Venezuelan prospect who joined the Astros on a $15K bonus 10 years ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Has to be Altuve as on right now
Altuve batted like .500 for a month how can it not be him
Altuve is quite a player! And, it’s the WAR Position Player leader that generally wins it with Trout as such for his. But, do you know who is behind him with 6.3 in the AL? SIMBA, who was the leader a few weeks ago. Then there’s Judge with 5.5 and Trout with 5.4. Trout has been cold lately, SIMBA had simmered down but he’s heating up again. And, we all know what typically happens with Trout.
SIMBA and Trout could be 1 of the 2 horses this MVP race comes down too. Mark this post!
My votes for Trout, but I believe Judge will turn it around and finish the regular season strong.
Toss up between trout and altuve
This order sounds about right. I’d probably put Judge ahead of Kluber for 4th but that’s probably not relevant much. I think it will come down to Altuve and Trout.
It’s a two horse race between Altuve and Trout, but if the Angels fail to make the playoffs, Altuve will likely be the MVP. Winning is the most valuable stat of all, and something we can’t disregard in these discussions.
Then why did Trout win it last year on a 4th place 74 win team? I think Altuve will win MVP too, but never rule out Trout.
MB923: Because Trout was head and shoulders above everyone else in 2016. Not every season is like another. With Altuve’s numbers on a dominant team, right or wrong, some voters will see being on a winning team as a tie-breaker.
I know why he won it last year. I was asking aloliver.
Umm Mookie had a very strong season last year that compared with Trout’s season so he was head and shoulders above everyone else last year.
Where’s Jonathan Schoop in this conversation?
Lol. Schoop has a 3.6 fWAR. That trails 12 position players in the AL and 5 pitchers in the AL
He’s having a good year for sure, but he is no where close in the MVP race.
His performance is beyond the Schoop of this article.
Well done.
Terrific
Right where he should be. Not in it.
Johnny Baseball’s season is impressive but that team needs Machaco to be hot and lately he has been. Nothing against your opinion though.
Two pitchers??? And no mention of Nelson Cruz or Jonathan Schoop???
Having said that, it should be Altuve all the way if things stay the same.
It’s because defense is a thing. Almost impossible for a DH only to win
I agree, but David Ortiz was always a consideration for MVP. The player would have to be having a very strong season & the team winning.
Ortiz also never won one
Frank Thomas won a couple of MVP awards early on in his career before he became a regular DH. That being said, he was probably the worst fielding first baseman in MLB at the time of those honors.
Thomas’ superior bat certainly overcame his flawed defense.
All Trout has to do is grab the award and hold it over his head. Altuve will never get it then.
Well played.
Trout was 0-14 over his past five games. He’s not going to win over Altuve this year. Coming back from that type of injury keeps him better than anyone but Altuve this year. That being said, if Altuve was to get injured tomorrow and miss the rest of the season it would be Trout’s MVP to lose.
0-14 over his last 5 games???
youtube.com/watch?v=dw9qqvm-LT8
No hits in 14 at bats
See the link I put.
How do I see the link?
I don’t think you can from the app. But you can on MLBTR web page on mobile and PC
Trouts gonna win, altuves team is much better so it’s hard to say he the sole contributor to why that team is good. Correia and springer and keuchel all having personal best years. Trout has lead a below average team in the thick of the playoff race. Not even close, all others should get your eyes checked. Everyone else said Donaldson would win last year as well and trout won it.
And Correa, Springer, and Keuchel have all missed a fair amount of time. Correa has missed about two months
Donaldson wasn’t even in the top 3 in voting last year
Although Mike Trout is the best player on the planet, I’ll go with Jose Altuve as the A.L. MVP winner this season in a close race. In this instance gentlemen, size does not matter.
Article has the rankings spot on, and Altuve’s continued improvement and consistency while playing a demanding 2B position, should win the day if things stay on the current track.
I know its fun to speculate but I don’t think it is even close this season. Mike Trout is a superstar but Altuve is the AL MVP hands down. Not an Astros fan (I am a fan but Astros aren’t “my” team).
Trouts numbers are almost comparable to altuves despite playing two months less. Roster has a huge part of the race and the astros have the deepest positional lineup in the American League. Trout team has mostly scrap metal and buckets of balls to help him. Not even close
It’s kinda frustrating when I see comments line this yet Simmons is having an good year and the Angels have a pretty good bullpen too.
Trout. Altuve is juicing.
That’s a stupid thing to say. Anyone can say that about any player.
Really. Thats interesting. Since you have inside knowledge, who else is cheating?
altuve. if the halos make a wildcard, trout.
All I care is that Rhys Hoskins will win MVP in both leagues at this pace.
I came here to make the same joke about Stanton.
I hate it when pitchers are brought up in the mvp discussion, we already honor the pitching mvp via the cy young award, an everyday player cant win the cy young so why should a pitcher win the mvp???? really is time for the writers to sit down and restructure the awards,
Well they have hank aaron award that only hitters can win
I always look at it as where that team would be without that player. If altuve wasn’t on astros they would still be a playoff team with their talent. If trout wasn’t on angels they wouldn’t even be sniffing playoffs. Has to be trout.
A lot of the categories in 2016 that Trout was first in, WAR, OPS+, WRC, etc, are the categories that Altuve is leading this season. Trout dominated the offensive categories in 2016, and while Altuve isn’t dominating in quite the same way, he’s still top of the heap. Altuve has to be the MVP.
Trout is the best player in the game by a fair margin, but the missed time will hurt him. Altuve has played more games, and that counts.
There isn’t really a loser in the competition, and I’d bet that both players would gladly trade an MVP for postseason success.
Trout? How lazy and pathetic a choice
Is this sarcasm? He’s the best player in baseball and it’s not close…
Not to suggest there’s no case for anybody else this season (although I’m on the Trout bandwagon), but I don’t get how he’s not in the conversation (if you’re being serious).
How is it not close? There are at least 5-7 position players with similar batting skills if not superior
Trout is the best positional player in baseball by a comfortable margin
5-7 position players with similar batting skills? No. It’s pretty much Trout then Altuve. They are by far the best two position players right now.
It’s easy to forget, because he’s so good, but he’s got Joey Votto’s on – base percentage and Giancarlo Stanton’s slugging percentage this season. Obviously his counting stats are down a bit because he got hurt, and I can respect the argument that the injury gives others a chance this season (although I disagree), but on a rate basis, nah, he’s been the best player in baseball by a wide margin again- after having been the year before, and the year before that, and the year before that
Look, this is a good debate to have, and yes, sometimes it’s easy to lose track of Trout’s brilliance, which I certainly don’t deny. However, I say Harper, Bryant and Stanton easily match up to Trout when they’re on, with Stanton clearly having MUCH more power potential. The big thing Trout has on all those guys obviously is his consistency, which obviously gives him a hand up but this season proves everyone is vulnerable and it’s pretty much impossible to have an iron man at this point.
And then there’s Votto and Altuve(who I’ve always been down on for a number of reasons). Point is to say it’s not even close is just not true. It’s very close, this league is a hitter’s league and there is a massive swath of great hitters, many of Trout’s caliber
If the Angels make the playoffs, Trout is the MVP. List of candidates in the article is well done – concise.
Trout will win another MVP award. He will get hot again in September which is more than I can say for his team.
Trout’s the best in the game; no question (Altuve tho is close). But the Angels kept on winning without Trout…….
Simmons by a large measure…..offensive contribution along with truly amazing defense, best anybody’s seen since Ozzie; maybe better than Ozzie; literally game changing……
Put down the pipe and get help!!!
What’s wrong with what he said?
Absolutely nothing! The commenter is a troll and we all make the mistake of replying to him when he’s best ignored.
There were 2 trades I absolutely Hated for this braves rebuild. Shipping off wood to LA, and simmons to the other LA
How is Gary Sanchez not in consideration? He and Judge should share the award. Judge for the first half, Sanchez for the 2nd half.
Wait…let me guess, Yankee fan, right? No one other than a Yankee fan would post such an absurdity. According to BB Ref, Altuve leads in 15 offensive categories. Sanchez leads in caught stealing. Sanchez isn’t even in the top 10 in most categories. He’s 7th in ABs per HR, 10th in SLG, and 10th in Offensive win %.
Judge would have been in consideration if he hadn’t tanked so badly: .179/.341/.352 in the second half. No one wins for a good half season. Sanchez’s .945 OPS in the second half isn’t as good as Altuve’s, or Trout’s full season. Neither Judge nor Sanchez deserves the award for the best player in the league, especially Sanchez.
Nope. He’s pretending to be a Yankee fan.
The Red Sox would be a third place team without Sale. He’s easily the MVP right now and I don’t care if he’s a pitcher, he’s just too valuable
Easily? No way. You can make the argument for him, but I think Altuve has been way more better. He’s the best hitter on the best team in the league. I can maybe see ranking sale in front of trout, but that’s only due to injury.
I’m assuming you’re a sox fan by the name, so your opinion might be a little biased lol.
But there’s the issue man, he’s on the best team. He’s one of many great pieces on what has largely been a juggernaut team. Seriously, where do you see the Sox without Sale? I honestly think they have pathetically underperformed, not to manage their terrible management. Without Sale the Sox’ best pitchers have been Drew Pomeranz and 13 games of big baby David Price.
This is an argument that really has no answer. I believe the MVP should go to the best player, regardless of his teams record. I’d be fine if the last placed team had the MVP.
Like Andre Dawson with the 1987 Cubs.
That or have two separate awards in each league, a Player of the Year (POY or POTY, lol!) for the best player each season regardless of his clubs W-L record (perhaps determined by some metric formula) and the other for the MVP which would be given to the player deemed the most impacting in his team reaching the postseason.
Tim Salmon, I mean Aaron Judge, is no longer having as good of a year as Simmons. And I think Byron Buxton will overtake Judge by the end of the year for a possible top 10 finish..
Miguel won back to back MVPs so stop saying Trout deserved those. The media has a serious love affair over Trout. No way he deserves the MVP this year after missing 6 weeks so STOP mentioning him for this. Altuve is the man this year.
I love Altuve, and I know a lot of you don’t like pitchers winning MVP, but I’d pick Sale for MVP. Would the Red Sox be in first without Sale? Especially early in the season, when the Red Sox weren’t scoring runs, they didn’t leave their pitchers with a lot of margin for error. Without Sale, the Yankees are in first. I wouldn’t complain if Altuve won MVP, but the Astros would probably be contending without Altuve; their lineup is dangerous.
THANK YOU
Another great article, Connor.
Sucks Judge is doing everything he can to give away the MVP award 2nd half, but I agree with all your picks.
Altuve hands down.