Whether Angels left fielder Justin Upton opts out of his contract will serve as one of the most intriguing storylines during the early part of Major League Baseball’s upcoming offseason. The same opt-out question applies to Yankees right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who may have an easier decision than Upton. While Upton has four years and $88.5MM left on his contract, Tanaka’s remaining pact consists of fewer years and dollars (three and $67MM, respectively). But that doesn’t necessarily make it a slam-dunk call for Tanaka, who, unlike Upton, has had a bit of a rocky season in what could amount to a platform year.
Tanaka, who emigrated from Japan on a seven-year, $155MM agreement in 2014, emerged as a front-end starter in the Bronx from the get-go and entered 2017 off a strong three-season stretch. Over 75 starts and 490 innings, the splitter-loving Tanaka logged a 3.12 ERA with 8.17 K/9 against 1.54 BB/9 and a 47.4 percent groundball rate. The only full-time American League starters to post a better ERA during that span were Corey Kluber, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez and Garrett Richards, while just nine outdid Tanaka’s combined 10.0 fWAR.
Judging solely on fWAR (2.3), Tanaka is having another good season, though the 28-year-old trails 41 other major league starters in that category. Meanwhile, among the 112 hurlers who have thrown at least 100 innings this year, Tanaka is a below-average 73rd in ERA (4.54, tied with fellow opt-out candidate Johnny Cueto).
Fortunately for Tanaka, the run prevention problems he has had in 2017 aren’t nearly as dire as they appear. A bloated home run-to-fly ball rate (20 percent, up from 14.1 percent over the previous three years) is the main culprit, but Tanaka has only yielded eight long balls in 78 innings dating back to June 17, when his ERA sat at 6.34 and his HR total was already at 21 through 76 1/3 frames. Since then, Tanaka has notched nine quality starts in 12 outings – including a gem against the Red Sox on Saturday – pitched to a 2.77 ERA and racked up 82 strikeouts against 15 walks. Those are ace-like numbers, and a newfound reliance on his slider is among the reasons for Tanaka’s summer success, as FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris explained Friday.
Thanks in part to his adeptness over the past month-plus, Tanaka ranks 13th among starters this season in strikeout-walk percentage (18.7), 13th in infield fly ball rate (11.2 percent) and 15th in the grounder department (49.3 percent). Those are all encouraging signs, clearly, as is the fact that his velocity looks normal. Tanaka should hit the 30-start mark for the second straight year, too, which is especially positive for someone who hasn’t been the picture of durability during his career. He combined for 44 starts in his first two seasons and has dealt with a laundry list of arm issues over the years, the most serious of which being a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. Tanaka has managed to pitch through the UCL tear over the past couple seasons, though teams could be wary of it in free agency. As such, it’s something Tanaka’s going to have to consider when choosing whether to vacate the remainder of his contract.
Should he opt out, Tanaka figures to reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees before officially reaching free agency, which could also negatively affect his market to some degree. Still, along with a pair of over-30 hurlers in Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, Tanaka would be among the most sought-after starters available. And in a league that has seen starters with more questionable track records (Rich Hill, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and Wei-Yin Chen, to name a few) rake in sizable paydays in recent winters, it’s reasonable to guess Tanaka will indeed venture to the open market in hopes of outdoing the $67MM he’d make by sticking with his current deal.
(Poll link for Trade Rumors App users)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
If he has a good September I bet he walks. I doubt the Yankees will chase him too.
I hope he walks. They can get more value for the $ they’re paying him.
If he opts out, the Yankees lose him, CC, and ARod salary wise, each were making $20mil = )
Imagine what you can get for $60+mm a year.
Barring injury, yeah, I think he opts – out. Some may quibble with the characterization of him as a TOR pitcher, but he’s at least above-average, and this is a market where an average 28 year – old SP in Mike Leake got 5/$80M, and Tanaka’ s clearly better than Leake is. I’d expect him to opt – out and pull something like 5/$110M
I agree with most of your comment but he’s a year older than Leake was 2 years ago, when Leake entered FA and he has a “higher” injury record. 4 / 80 yes, 5 /110 I find doubtful.
He might end up at 4 years, but I think I’d take the over on $20M AAV if that happens
And wouldn’t surprise me if they brought back Sabathia year to year like they used to do with Pettitte.
He has a 2.73 ERA in the second half, a solid track record, and hes still young.
However, he still was terrible for the first half, and has the UCL issue that is going to half to be resolved at some point. I think he walks though
A LOT of mileage (going all the way back to Japan) on an arm that is already questionable when it comes to health.
I mean if he walks he’s only going to add years he isn’t worth much more then the 22million annually he’s making. The Yankees may avoid the opt like they did CC and just offer two more years on the deal making it 5/111 or something. And if he declines that they may let him walk in that case.
He would be wise to opt out. Getting away from Sanchez as his catcher will greatly improve his stats.
Trollololol
+1
Granted, he’s possibly a TJ waiting to happen with the prior forearm issues, but I think he’s quite probably still the best FA starter coming up this winter.
Arieta will be the most over paid, as do most all Boras people and have dire thoughts to his longevity. Darvish should provide value, but his troubles this season have not improved like Tanaka’s.
Give him 2 year 40 mil extension
You know I never actually thought about the Yankees just extending him before he opts out. Interesting idea
They did it with cc
Agreed. CC opted out but then signed his original deal with original money with just one more year at the same rate. CC wasn’t sure that he would like NY, but moved full time into Alpine, NJ, won the WS, and love NY and the NYY…
CC never opted out. The Yanks just extended his contract
Why is it interesting? Why extend him. He is not worth the money now and is a huge injury risk. Pray he walks. Do not extend
Who are they going to replace him with at $20M/yr?
Why not just bring up Chance Adams and work with a lower payroll. What a concept. They don’t always have to be at $190-$210m payroll every year.
With a weak pitching market Darvish, Arrieta, and Tanaka will clean up in FA.
If he walks it’s the UCL that is obviously going to hold him back the most from getting an improved contract. I think his best chance at maximizing his value is to have a provision in his contract like Lackey used to have. If he has to lose a year to TJ, then another year is added to his contract at the ML minimum value. The signing team would then have a season probably mostly covered by insurance and then have their AAV in him drop considerably to help them sign a fill in.
I’ll bet he walks, he makes more money, and the Yankees don’t pay it. I think they will make a token effort to re-sign him and offer the QO, but it won’t be enough.
Tanaka is 28 years old. He’ll be coming onto the market in his prime. Easily gets 6 years / $120MM if not more.
You forgetting that every team in MLB is aware that he’ll be missing 2 of those years due to TJS?
I think he’d be crazy to. Some team will have to do a huge gamble to pay him more than he’s already getting
His UCL injury is so public. I think his best option is to stay but will instead take the risk and opt out.
As I post, everyone of these comments has received a thumbs down. with zero positives. Really? WTF!
Suggestion to mlbtraderrumors. Lose the dislike icon and make commenters reply if they disagree. For whatever reason, some posters have their finger stuck on that dislike arrow.
I’m fine with leaving the dislike option, but yeah, I think somebody trolled this comment section lol. It’s not like each comment said the same thing, hard to believe somebody actually disagreed with every comment in here
Unfortunately, it’s not jut an isolated occurrence here. There’s a whole lot of trolling, cynicism or downright hate going on lately and maybe some of it will go away if a participant actually has to comment in order to voice their displeasure.
Barring injury he’s a lock to opt out. He’s come on real strong in the second half and will easily double the number of years on his contract with the same AAV.
This makes the Sonny Gray trade so valuable to the Yankees. With Gray, Severino, and Montgomery in the rotation they can either bring back CC on a one year deal or fill the other two spots from a selection of Green, Cessa, Mitchell, Adams, etc. Takes another 20M+ contract off the books and ensures they are well under the luxury tax threshold next year.
There’s no mention in the article about Masahiro Tanaka’s feeling about pitching for the Yankees and in New York over the years. It’s apparent he will get paid handsomely if he opts out and is guaranteed to do so if he doesn’t. What say you, Yankee fans?
If he pulls a CC and uses the opt out to get one more year at his rate, fine. If not, he should try his hand elsewhere…
He gets a minimum 4 years / 80 million $ if he were to enter the open market.
So yes.
How drunk are you guys? Era does not mean anything in baseball. We are talking about homerun to fly all ratio through the roof that won’t hold up. Highest k/9 in his career. Almost a 50% groundball rate, dude opt out no question.
I don’t think it means nothing, there are some pitchers who just seem to underperform their peripherals consistently. Tanaka isn’t one of those though, he’s been dominant recently and he’s still pretty young, so yeah, I agree
Yankees fans WISH he would opt out. No way he walks away from all of that guaranteed money with the injury history he has.
He shouldn’t opt out, but he will…
When Tanaka is healthy he has Cy Young stuff. Has anyone ever looked at his day/night splits. He’s great in night games and terrible in day games.
I want him on the team, i dont trust all the young pitchers and at least we get a 3.50 era and 15 wins every year w him